As we enter the final week of January, Canadian baseball fans can take solace in knowing that we only have one more truly brutal month ahead of us (ghastly, godawful February), before the excitement of baseball and all that it brings with it (warm weather, beer, the sun, and more beer) returns.

What this also means is that Major League Baseball’s offseason is winding down.  Sure there are a few intriguing names still available, but with most of the big fish out of the free agent pond, I think we can take an opportunity to look at how successful (or unsuccessful) Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has fared to this point.

Below are eight wishes, or in some cases demands (as in angry, fist-shaking demands) that Jays fans had at the conclusion of the 2011 season.  Did AA do an adequate job in fulfilling these wishes?  Let’s find out.

1. Bring Back Johnny Mac

The Ask: Re-sign fan favourite John McDonald, who was traded away to Arizona in August, so he can finish his career in Toronto.

What AA Did: Well, he didn’t bring back Johnny, who re-signed with the Diamondbacks for two years at $3-million.  But, at least in my opinion, he did one better in bringing in 44-year old defensive wonder Omar Vizquel.  Despite being seven years older than Johnny, Vizquel continues to play excellent defense, and actually has outproduced McDonald on the offensive side of the ball.  In 2011 he put up a .592 OPS to Johnny’s .577, and has posted a .650 OPS from ’09-’11, compared to Johnny’s .642.  Plus the dollar value and contract length are more team friendly.

Verdict: Though he’ll never replace Johnny Mac in our hearts, Vizquel is an adequate replacement.  AA wins the point.

2. Bring In A Bona Fide Closer

The Ask: Simple – give us a closer.  One who can get hitters out on a fairly routine basis without giving fans heart attacks on a regular basis.

What AA Did: Dealt pitching prospect Nestor Molina to Chicago for closer Sergio Santos.  In pure baseball terms this was a solid move.  Molina had never thrown a pitch in the majors, and Santos had 30 saves and a ridiculous 13.07 K/9 ratio in 2011.  In monetary terms it was an amazing deal, with Santos signed for three years (plus three option years) and owed $8.25-million total for those years.  

Verdict: It wasn’t a big name like Papelbon, but it’s even better that it wasn’t a big name.  Chalk up another point for the GM.

3. Revamp the Entire Bullpen

The Ask: It wasn’t rocket science to figure out what Toronto’s Achilles heel was last season.  The bullpen underperformed all year long, plunging fans into months of mediocrity.  Fans wanted a new bullpen.

What AA Did: As described above, he brought in Santos to close.  He signed veteran lefty Darren Oliver to give the Jays a serious strength against left-handed hitters.  He let the wildly inconsistent and disappointing Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and Shawn Camp walk.  He re-acquired old set-up man Jason Frasor from the White Sox.  And yesterday, Anthopoulos signed former Cincinnati Reds closer Franciso Cordero to pitch the 8th inning.  Yes Cordero’s numbers may be declining, but I think he’ll be a good insurance policy for Santos, and can team with Frasor and Oliver to bridge the gap to the ninth.  Plus AA kept the only two decent relievers from 2011 – Villanueva and Janssen.

Verdict: Fans can whine all they want about Oliver and Cordero being old – the bullpen is vastly improved.  AA delivers. 

4. Add A Big Bat

The Ask: Add a power hitter to slot behind (or in front of) home run king Jose Bautista.

What AA Did: To this point, nothing – to the derision of many fans.  With Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran all on the move, Anthopoulos sat and watched other teams snap those guys up, preferring to hope for rebound years by Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind. 

Verdict: There was a high probability that Adam Lind played last season with a busted back, meaning he is a good candidate to bounce back, and seeing the absolutely ridiculous contracts given to both Fielder and Pujols, I’m not as disappointed that a bat wasn’t added.  Is a shot at a World Series in the next two or three years really worth paying Pujols $25-million when he is 42, or paying Fielder $23-million when he is 35 and potentially 350 lbs and immobile?  I’ll give AA a push on this one.

5. Settle the LF Question

The Ask: Pick one – Travis Snider or Eric Thames – and go with him for the entire season.

What AA Did: So far nothing at all.  Both Thames and Snider are still Blue Jays, and both are still slated to make the big league team.  Will they platoon?  Will one start and one sit?  Will one be sent down?  Will one be traded?  Questions still abound.

Verdict: Tough to say.  Most still believe that Snider has more upside, and he is still only 23 years old (24 next week).  It was always going to be a tough situation for AA to be in, and I (along with many) would probably feel more comfortable with a decision and/or trade coming sometime during the season after each has been given an opportunity.  A push.

6. Settle the 2B Question

The Ask: Bring in a quality second baseman, something that’s been missing since Aaron Hill went AWOL.

What AA Did: Re-signed Kelly Johnson to a one year $6.375-million contract.  In a limited audition with the Jays after being acquired from Arizona, Johnson hit .270 with a .781 OPS and 3 HR, and according to rumour, has long been an Anthopoulos favourite.

Verdict: In truth, the 2B options in free agency were limited, and it was somewhat shocking that Johnson accepted arbitration back in December.  The question remains as to whether KJ is a good enough long term option, but at $6-million and one year there is little risk.  The only problem is that the Jays are likely right back in the same position next year.  Still – a mild win for AA.

7. Improve the Rotation

The Ask: In a nutshell – sign Yu Darvish.  Most fans were clamouring for Yu, with the noise hitting a fever pitch in the week before the posting decision was announced.  To a lesser extent, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Hiroki Kuroda, and Edwin Jackson were thrown out there.

What AA Did: Nobody actually knows if a bid was placed for Yu Darvish, with some reports saying no and others saying approximately $50-million.  Either way, it wasn’t enough and Darvish went to Texas.  Nor did AA sign any other starting pitcher.  He did, however, extend Brandon Morrow for three years, which, for those who read this site often, is a gold-star type move in my opinion. 

Verdict: While Darvish would have been nice, it can’t be stressed enough that he has never faced major league hitting  before, and spending $111-million  (contract + posting fee) is a tad outrageous.  With a rotation fronted by Romero, Morrow, and promising rookie Henderson Alvarez, the top three look solid.  Last year Toronto finished 81-81 with a wildly inconsistent Morrow, and horrendous, bottom-of-the barrel type seasons from Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek (not to mention four months worth of Jo Jo Reyes).  Even a minor bounce back year from Cecil and/or Drabek, plus the addition of McGowan and maybe even one of the rich pitching prospects in the minors, and the rotation is already better than last year, without overpaying a crappy free agent.  Win.

8. Improve But Don’t Cripple Us

The Ask: Basically this: get better in all areas of the game, but don’t ruin our future by a) trading away prospects and/or b) signing players to terrible contracts.  Awful deals to Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, and A.J. Burnett are still fresh in people’s minds, and nobody wants to see an Anthony Gose or a Jake Marisnick starring for another team in a few years.

What AA Did: Nothing over the top, which is a good thing.  Yes he dealt Molina to Chi-town, but the jury is still out on what kind of impact he’ll make.  AA avoided overpaying for Wilson, Fielder, Pujols, Beltran, Papelbon, etc., and he hung on to the jewels of  his farm system instead of pooling them together for a Matt Garza, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, or Carlos Quentin. 

Verdict: Huge win.  If the price to be in contention for a World Series in 2012 was to have no chance at winning from 2014 – 2018, then I’d rather not.  Raiding the minors and overcommitting financial resources to top free agents is an untenable strategy – just ask the New York Mets. 

By my count, that is one hell of an offseason for our GM.

Hats off to Mr. Anthopoulos.

A big night last night for fans of the Toronto Blue Jays; something to get us excited on a dark, dreary, cold, windy, and rainy January night.

First the bigger news – the Blue Jays sign Brandon Morrow to a 3-year / $20-million contract extension.  At first glance, this looks like a great deal for the Jays.  Morrow is 27-years old (he’ll be 28 in July), meaning he is just entering his prime years, and neither the term nor the dollar value are outrageous.

Then I took a second glance at the signing, and it looks like an even better deal.

Look at Morrow’s numbers over the past three seasons (2009 with Seattle).  He has gone from 10 starts, to 26 starts, to 30 starts.  His innings pitched have also steadily increased, from 69.2 to 146.1, to 179.1 last season.  Yes his ERA has also steadily risen, up to an unsightly 4.72 in 2011, but most importantly, his WHIP and his walk rate (measured as BB/9) have steadily decreased over the past three years.  All that while maintaining a K/9 rate of greater than 10 in each of the last two years, including a league leading 10.19 in 2011.

Yes Morrow is inconsistent, sometimes frustratingly so.  But don’t forget – he didn’t really become a full-time starter until 2010 when arriving with the Blue Jays.  Most young starting pitchers take time to settle, and Morrow was jerked around by Seattle, which likely delayed his growth as a pitcher.  It’s hard enough to transition from a closer to a starter.  Imagine being forced to go back and forth multiple times?  Now that his arm strength has built and his starting technique has developed, his elite potential is on the verge of exploding.

I read a tweet from ESPN analyst Jim Bowden who labelled the signing “high risk” due to Morrow’s “increasing ERA’s and injury history”.  But is a three year deal at < $7-million a season really so dangerous, for a potentially elite starting pitcher who has electric stuff and the ability to lead the league in strikeouts year after year?  Especially when the Phillies will be paying Jonathan Papelbon $12.5-million to pitch 125-150 fewer innings, and Arizona will be paying Joe Saunders (a 30-year old with a 4.6 K/9 ratio and a 1.31 WHIP (worse than Morrow’s)) $6-million for 2012?  I don’t think so.

In the second move of the night, Toronto signed 44-year old (45 in April) Omar Vizquel to a one-year deal.  Many people wondered why, especially considering his advanced age and declining skill set.  But I love it.

Some people point to the fact that he is a Latin player who speaks Spanish, and thus will help Yunel Escobar.  Others point to the fact he could be a mentor to the young Cuban, and potential future Toronto SS Adeiny Hechavarria.  Both are solid points.

One could argue that Vizquel will fill the same role as Johnny Mac did for many years – a late inning defensive replacement.  You could also point out that despite being much older, Vizquel actually put up better offensive stats than Johnny last year: .251 average and .592 OPS, compared to a .229 average and .577 OPS (in both Toronto and Arizona).  If you want to nitpick further, Vizquel’s offensive numbers destroyed those of Mike McCoy, the incumbent “light-hitting sub”.

All good points.

But the real reason why I love the signing has nothing to do with that stuff. 

You see, as a kid growing up I played baseball, grinding it out summer after summer in the WMBA (Whitby Minor Baseball Association) for such powerhouse teams as The Legal Beagles, and Whitby Toyota.  I played a pretty good shortstop, showing good range, with a decent arm.  Unfortunately, I couldn’t hit, finishing my career with 0 home runs and one triple.  But I developed a pretty good slap hitting style, getting on base a lot.  So naturally, who became my favourite player of all time?  Tony Fernandez.  What other players captivated me on a daily basis whenever I watched baseball highlights?  Ozzie Smith, Alfredo Griffin, and you guessed it.

Omar Vizquel.

Welcome to Toronto buddy.

Before I start let me make a few things clear:

1. I am in no way against the contract that Yu Darvish signed with Texas.

2. I am not anti-Yu.

3. I still wish that the Blue Jays had signed Darvish.

4. I am not writing this because I’m angry with Toronto, or Texas, or Yu for what happened.

Now that that’s said….

I sent out a simple tweet yesterday that generated some responses, and those responses have in turn lead me to write this post.

I tweeted this:

Again – I’m not saying that $60-million is the wrong number for Darvish.  It might be too high, it might even be too low – a steal for Texas.  Who knows?  All I’m saying is that this $60-million contract (plus a $51-million posting fee, bringing the total to $111 million) is essentially going to a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues.

Very few pitchers have ever eclipsed the $100-million mark, and those that have have brought with them a nice track record of Cy Young awards and/or playoff/regular season success.  Some of those contracts turned out bad (hello Mike Hampton and Barry Zito), but at least they were based on previous success.

Let me reiterate that Yu Darvish has never thrown a pitch in a major league game.

What really struck me when the deal was announced, and what was the main driving force behind my tweet, was that nobody seemed to care about that fact.  There was no outrage.  Let me bring up something from a few years ago.  Remember back in the summer of 2009 when a highly touted pitcher was taken first overall in the MLB draft?  In August, that pitcher was signed to a four year $15.1-million contract.  I remember baseball pundits and fans being mind-boggled that any team would give a player who had never played in the big leagues that much money. 

That player was obviously Stephen Strasburg, and that contract is obviously much, much less than what Darvish received.

As I said in the tweet, besides a few more years pitched and a stronger arm, what is the difference between those two?  Why was nobody shocked/angered/bewildered by the Darvish money?

Is it because he’s older?  Is it because the signing of a Japanese pitcher to crazy money has been done before?  One responder said that he thought it was a good deal because Darvish had faced MLB talent before.  But has he?  In the 2009 World Baseball Classic, Darvish came into pitch the 9th inning against the USA in the semi-final game with a 5-run lead.  Here is how he fared:

- Derek Jeter grounded out

- Jimmy Rollins singled

- David Wright struck out

- Adam Dunn struck out

To me it looks like Darvish has indeed faced MLB talent – four players in a pre-season exhibition tournament, none of who were in anything near peak game shape (plus anybody can strike out Adam Dunn.  It’s been proven.)  That’s it.  And he gave up a hit.

Yes I know that is a small sample size, and maybe he would have dominated the USA in a full game with players in mid-season form.  But…maybe he wouldn’t have.

Look – Darvish’s numbers speak for themselves.  He went 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 13 innings in the WBC.  He has posted a sub 1.90 ERA and sub 1.05 WHIP in five straight seaons in Japan, eclipsing 200 K in four of those.  But just as people were wondering if Strasburg’s dominance against college hitters would translate to the majors, it also must be asked if Darvish’s dominance of Japanese hitters will translate.

The Rangers are betting $111-million that it will. 

And nobody seems to care.

Let me start by clarifying a few things: I am not a huge football fan, and this is a baseball blog, but yes – I am writing about football.

Here’s why: I’m getting sick of hearing about the New England Patriots.  Everybody on Twitter has given them the Superbowl this year after Green Bay lost yesterday.  Everybody is saying that they are a super team, that they are a dynasty, that this year’s incarnation is the best ever.

To which I respond – garbage.

The 2012 New England Patriots played 16 games, and the end of season combined winning percentage of their 16 opponents was a staggering .449.  The teams that played New England lost 26 more games than they won.  The Patriots played only two (2!!!) games in the regular season against teams that finished with winning records: Pittsburgh and the NY Giants.  The Patriots lost them both.

On the other hand, take a team like the poor Cleveland Browns.  Cleveland also played 16 football games this season, only the final winning percentage of their 16 opponents was .531.  Their opponents won 16 games more than they lost.  The Browns played an unbelievable 9 games against teams that would finish the season with a winning record.  They went 0 – 9 in those contests.

So on the one side of the equation you have New England, who played 12.5% of their schedule against good teams.  On the other you have Cleveland who played 56.25% of their schedule against winning teams.  Both of those teams play in the same conference and battle for the same Wild Card spots.

Yet New England, despite playing a schedule softer than Bartolo Colon’s belly, is being touted as the best team in the league and a Superbowl lock.

That’s like Toronto being asked to play 56% of their games against Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Texas, and the Angels, despite being in the same league and battling for the same Wild Card spot, only being asked to play 12% of their games against those teams, and the rest against Baltimore, Kansas City, and Seattle. 

Oh wait…

It may not be to the same extent, but this happens already in baseball thanks to the unbalanced schedule. 

Poor Blue Jays.  Poor, poor Browns.

And that, friends, is the reason why New England doesn’t deserve all the praise they’ve been given.  Yes I understand that you only play the schedule you’ve been given, but as us Blue Jay fans can attest to – not all schedules are created equal.

If you’ve noticed anybody around you acting weird, don’t worry – today is Friday the 13th, a day full of superstition.

Friggatriskaidekaphobia is what the fear of this day is known as, and a quick look at the baseball history books shows that many major league GM’s might be afflicted with it.

Today marks the 67th Friday the 13th since 1973 (thanks Wikipedia!).  On the 66 prior Friday the 13th’s, baseball reference tells me that there have been a total of 159 transactions in the major leagues.  And while an average of 2.4 transactions a day might sound like a good amount, keep this in mind: on what is being described as a pretty slow offseason, there were six transactions made on Wednesday (January 11th) of this week alone.

If we only include Friday the 13th’s during the season (i.e. April through September), the number drops to just over two per day (71 moves in 35 days).

On top of those numbers, a look at each of those moves tells us that the overwhelming majority were minor…very minor.  Trades involving fringe prospects and bench players, and several lower tier players being signed to free agent contracts.  A few moves of note from Friday the 13th’s past include the Rangers trading future Oakland ace Dave Stewart to Philadelphia in 1985, the Yankees signing amateur free agent Bernie Williams (also in ’85), Seattle trading David Ortiz to Minnesota for Dave Hollins (1996), and Cleveland trading away future Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry to Texas in 1975.  However, perhaps the most notable move ever made on a Friday the 13th happened to be made by your Toronto Blue Jays.

Looking back through the annals of Friday the 13th’s, the Jays have made a total of five transactions in their history.  Four of them were inconsequential:

- 1979: signed Jackson Todd

- 1994: signed an over-the-hill Dave Righetti

- 2006: traded Scott Schoeneweis to Cincinnati for Trevor Lawhorn

- 2009: signed the lovable but injury prone Dirk “The Garfoose” Hayhurst

But the fifth transaction, occurring on Friday the 13th 1996, was one of the biggest moves in franchise history.  On that day the Toronto Blue Jays announced the signing of pitcher Roger Clemens.  That one turned out to be a pretty good move – for both Toronto and Roger.

But why, other than the moves mentioned above, is there so little activity of consequence on Friday the 13th?  Are MLB GM’s superstitious?  Are they afraid of making big moves – afraid that something negative will happen?  Or are they just simply afraid of the spirit of Jason Voorhees?

Hard to say. 

But don’t fear.  There are two more Friday the 13th’s in 2012, and both fall during the baseball season.  One is in April, where we are likely to see little movement.  But the second falls in July, just a few weeks before the trade deadline.

Will Jason prevent anything big from happening to contending teams on that day?

I generally try to avoid commentary on the Hall of Fame voting procedure, because, honestly, it is terrible, unfair, and extremely flawed.  Any time baseball writers have the ability to vote for something of meaning, they almost always screw it up.  Most of the time it is because a voter carries a personal agenda with him/her when they fill out their ballot.  They want to make a name for themselves by doing something outrageous that stands out.  Often times it works – we now know the name Evan Grant as the idiot who gave Michael Young a first place MVP vote.  His vote was likely 25% because he believed Young deserved it, and 75% because his ego wanted publicity and recognition.

After all, how can you trust a process in which Babe Ruth, not only the greatest player, but also one of the greatest pitchers in the history of the game, only received 95.1% of the vote in the first Hall of Fame election?  11 voters left Ruth off their ballots.  Ridiculous!  One old story goes that a writer left Ruth off the ballot because he didn’t like the way Ruth treated him on road trips.  Seriously?  At that point in time the entire general public should have clued in that the Hall is flawed.

Anyways, here are two thoughts that came to mind after the 2012 class was unveiled yesterday.

1. Poor Alan Trammell

As a Blue Jays fan, I don’t like Alan Trammell.  Him and the rest of the Tigers tormented my youth, constantly beating out Toronto when the teams were both AL East division rivals.  But as a baseball fan, I (generally) can recognize a good player from a bad player, a great player from a good player, and an elite player from a great player.  In my mind, Alan Trammell was an elite baseball player, one that is worthy of the Hall of Fame.

But don’t take my word for it.  Let’s look at the numbers to see what they say.  Below is a table comparing Trammell to four other shortstops who made the Hall of Fame in recent years – Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, and this year’s inductee Barry Larkin.  (Note that Yount played the last several years of his career as a CF so his numbers may be a bit skewed).

As you can see, Cal Ripken is clearly the leader in all counting stats.  But Trammell holds his own in the rate stats, with a batting average and OBP only bettered by Larkin, and an OPS in the vicinity of Yount.  His OPS+, which is adjusted for ballparks and era, is virtually tied with the other four hitters. 

This second table shows a few more advanced stats as well as honours and awards:

As you can see, in terms of WAR, Yount and Ripken are far ahead, but Trammell is essentially tied with both Smith and Larkin.  Defensively, everybody knows how amazing Smith was – that is the main reason he made the Hall.  But Trammell, according to total zone fielding runs above average, is a far better defender that both Yount and Larkin.  Though he never won an MVP, he finished in the top-20 in voting six times.  (All-Star game appearances and Gold Gloves should be taken with a grain of salt as they are basically popularity contests.  How else do you explain Ozzie making the 1995 team despite being injured, batting .250 at the break, and finishing with a .199 average?).

Finally, look at the post-season stats for the five players:

Yes Trammell played fewer games, but slugged the most HR, had by far the highest OPS, and also won a World Series title. 

Clearly, Trammell is nearly on equal footing with these four HOFers.  So how does one explain this:

Yount – First Ballot Hall of Famer (77.5% of the vote)

Smith – First Ballot Hall of Famer (91.7%)

Ripken – First Ballot Hall of Famer (98.5%)

Larkin – Third Ballot Hall of Famer (86.4%)

Trammell – 11th year on the ballot, 36.8% max

Is it an anti-Detroit bias?  After all, many great players from those glory years including Jack Morris (13th year on the ballot) and Lou Whitaker (career 69.7 WAR – better than Barry Larkin – lasted only one year on the ballot) are constantly falling short.  Is it because he didn’t have a cool nickname like Ozzie (the Wizard), couldn’t do a backflip like Ozzie, didn’t set any hallowed records like Cal, or didn’t lead his team to a huge World Series upset like Barry?  Who knows.  I only know that Trammell deserves his due, and he’s likely not going to get it.

2. Future Jays in the Hall?

I have a co-worker who is an enormous Cincinnati Reds fan, and who is understandably thrilled with Barry Larkin’s induction.  He sent an email to me yesterday saying “I plan on attending my first HOF induction weekend!”

As Blue Jays fans, we all had a thrill last year with the induction of Roberto Alomar into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay.  Unfortunately I wasn’t able to attend, and after receiving that email yesterday I thought to myself if I’ll ever be able to attend another HOF induction ceremony for a Blue Jay.  Sadly, it doesn’t look likely, at least anytime soon. 

There will certainly be players that get inducted to the Hall that played for the Blue Jays.  Frank Thomas comes to mind.  Maybe Roger Clemens (depending on how the steroid vote goes down).  But those guys will not be wearing the Blue Jay cap in Cooperstown.  So who’s next?

The two names that jump to mind at first are Carlos Delgado and Roy Halladay.  Delgado finished with great career numbers: a .280 batting average, 473 HR, and a .929 OPS.  He also finished in the top-20 of MVP voting six times.  But are those numbers enough?  Fred McGriff has similar stats (in fact he’s Delgado’s closest comparable player according to baseball reference) and he’s having a difficult time getting anywhere close to induction.  I think he’ll fal short.

Then there’s Halladay.  In my mind, he’s a sure fire Hall of Famer.  But will he go in as a Jay?  Debatable.  At the present time, you can make a case that he should.  14 seasons, 12 of which were in Toronto.  He started his career here, won a Cy Young here, become a superstar here.  But he isn’t retiring now.  He likely has another 4-5 years left, and there’s a good chance that all of those will be in Philadelphia.  There’s also a good chance he goes to the playoffs several more times as a Phillie, wins another Cy Young as a Phillie, and maybe wins a World Series as a Phillie.  If so, he’s going into Cooperstown as a Phillie.

Which leads me to this conclusion.  I’m not going to see a Blue Jay inducted into the Hall of Fame until I’m a much older man.  Sad.

With all of the big name free agents changing teams this offseason, Jays fans can be forgiven for being disappointed about our team’s lack of activity.  But that all changed with the news that Toronto finally made a splash in the free agent market.

The Jays didn’t go with a big name, however.

They went with an old name. 

And by old, I don’t mean an old member of the club coming back to Toronto. 

I mean old.  As in well aged.

The key word in that last sentence, however, is well.  Lefty Darren Oliver may be 41-years old, making him one of the elder statesmen of the major leagues, but he is still good.  Very good.  As has been well stated in the baseball media, Oliver’s best four seasons have been his last four seasons.  His ERA has declined in each of his past four years (two spent with the Angels and two with the Rangers): from 2.88 in 2008 to 2.29 in 2011.

Oliver is a shining example of what career transition means for a pitcher.  He made his major league debut in 1993 (a great year for Jays fans!) as a starter.  He was used primarily as a starter until he missed the entire 2005 season.  His career numbers as a starter?  Sub-par – 5.13 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.44 K/BB.

However, in 2006 he was converted to a full-time reliever, and blossomed.  His career stats as a reliever prove it: 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.44 K/BB.

Baseball, like all sports, is a “what have you done for me lately” industry.  It might be nice that you were dominant five years ago, but if you can’t cut it now….

That is why Oliver, despite a fairly hefty $4-million price tag, is a good signing.  Not only has he been getting better with age, but he has been saving his best for last. 

In 2011 he held left-handed hitters to a .227 average and .587 OPS.  His WHIP was a tidy 1.14.  Best of all, he pitched well against the AL East.  Yes I realize that it is a small sample size, but he tossed 4.1 scoreless innings against the Yankees, 3.2 scoreless innings against the Rays, 1 scoreless inning against the Orioles, and allowed 3 ER in 4.2 innings against Boston.  All in, that’s a 1.98 ERA against the teams Toronto will face most often in 2012.

But the Oliver signing is about more than just adding a quality arm to the Jays ‘pen.  It is about adding a quality lefty arm to the Jays ‘pen.  Take a quick look at all lefty relievers that the Jays employed in 2011 and tell me if you get excited.  The best by a landslide was Marc Rzepczynski, and he’s gone now, off celebrating a World Series title.  The rest?  Luis Perez was decent, but inconsistent, evidenced by his 4.27 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and .775 OPS against as a reliever.  Wil Ledezma, Rommie Lewis, Trever Miller, David Purcey, and Brian Tallet combined for an 11.42 ERA – and all are now off the team.

So not only do the Jays get a lefty, they get a good lefty.  They also get a veteran lefty, one who has 18 seasons of experience, a career WAR of 17.5 (7.0 in the last four years), and 30 games of playoff exposure.

On a young team, that could prove more valuable than anything.

Besides, even if he doesn’t pitch well, he’ll be visiting Bay Bloor Radio a whole lot more, right @dsharpdavis?

There’s nothing better than a good ol’ New Years Resolution.  Nothing brings more laughter, light-hearted humour, and comic relief than listening to resolutions, because so many of them are so absolutely ridiculous.  Here are some real ones I’ve heard:

“I want to work out EVERY DAY!”

“I will not eat ANYTHING unhealthy for the ENTIRE year!”

“I vow to read two full length books EVERY MONTH!”

“I will reduce my booze intake to only ONE beer a WEEK!”

Hilarious!  When you set such lofty goals you are setting yourself up for failure.  A more meaningful resolution equals a better chance to actually meet it.

The same logic applies to what I want to see for the Blue Jays in 2012.  I can easily say things like I want the Jays to win the World Series, or I want Bautista to win the AL MVP, or I want Brett Lawrie to smash 45 homers.  But are those things really realistic?  Maybe, but not likely.

So let me present to you five realistic objectives that I would like to see happen for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012.

1. J.P. Arencibia to raise his average to .250

Arencibia hit .219 last year, which was the lowest batting average among all AL catchers with at least 450 plate appearances, putting him behind players such as Miguel Olivo and Kurt Suzuki.  However, JPA also ranked 7th in OPS at .720, 2nd in HR with 23, and 4th in RBI with 78.  Based on his number of at-bats last year, a .250 average would require an additional 14 hits.  Those 14 hits would also raise his OBP from a dreadful .282 to a more respectable .311 and his OPS to over .780 (which, incidentally, would have been 4th best in the AL for catchers last year).

But can he do it?  His minor league numbers suggest he can, as he hit .301 in triple-A in 2010, and had a career minor league average of .275.  His major league splits from last year suggest otherwise, as he failed to eclipse the .216 mark in any individual month after May.

However, in his second full season in the big leagues, I think that 14 extra base hits isn’t out of the question.

2. A breakout year for Colby Rasmus

In 2009 as a 22 year old rookie, Rasmus hit 16 HR, had a .251 average and a .714 OPS and finished 8th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.  In 2010, in his sophomore season, Rasmus improved to 23 HR, a .276 average and .859 OPS.  In 2011, with a lot of hype about becoming baseball’s next big star, Rasmus fell flat and found himself traded to Toronto.  His numbers in Toronto were horrific – .173 average, .517 OPS, 3 HR in 35 games.

But a lot has been made of his time in St. Louis, about how he didn’t get along with manager TonyLaRussa, about his feuding with some teammates and with the media.  St. Louis was also a veteran team with a set identity – maybe not the place for a young up-anc-comer to really feel at home.

A full season in Toronto might finally be what the doctor ordered.  He will be surrounded by youth, on a team with tons of potential, and with less pressure than the past.  I don’t want to ask for 40 HR and a .950 OPS, but I think numbers exceeding his 2010 campaign are entirely possible.

3. Consistency from Brandon Morrow

The overall numbers were similar to 2010: 11 wins, a higher ERA (4.79) but a reduced WHIP (1.29) and walk rate (3.5 BB/9).  However the way he got there was not at all pretty, as Morrow took us all on a wild, rollercoaster of a ride.  Check out his ERA and WHIP splits:

April: 3.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

May: 5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

June: 3.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

July: 4.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

August: 5.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

September: 4.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Good then bad.  Good then bad.  The change was evident start-to-start as well.  Look at this 6-game stretch beginning May 21st:

May 21 vs. Houston: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

May 26 vs. Chicago: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

May 31 vs. Cleveland: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

June 6 vs. KC: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

June 11 vs. Boston: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

June 18 vs. Cincinnati: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

There is reason to believe that he is capable of becoming a solid starting pitcher however.  First, he is entering his third season with Toronto, and third as a full-time starter.  His arm strength has been built up and the inning limits will likely be off.  In other words, he won’t be treated with kid gloves this year.  Second, he ended 2011 with a bang.  His final three starts of the season looked like this: 2-0, 21 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 10 BB, 24 K, 0.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .486 OPS against.

I’m not asking for staff ace type numbers, just consistency each and every start.  I think he delivers in 2012.

4. Ninth inning reliability

In 2006, B.J. Ryan made his Blue Jays debut and put together one of the most dominant seasons by a Toronto closer.  Ever.  38 saves, 1.37 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 0.86 WHIP.  It was the kind of season where fans knew that if Toronto took a lead into the ninth, the game was over.  It is the kind of feeling that Yankees fans have had with Mariano Rivera forever.

We haven’t had that feeling in Toronto since.  Ryan blew out his arm in ’07, and while Jeremy Accardo did a good job filling in, he wasn’t trusted.  B.J. returned in ’08 and while the overall numbers were good, his dominance was gone.  Then followed three straight years of musical closers, with Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jon Rauch, and Frank Francisco all taking turns making Jays fans nervous.  Long gone are the days of Ward and Henke.

This year we welcome Sergio Santos into the mix as the newest ninth inning man.  While he may not have the name or the track record of some of the free agent closers that Anthopoulos passed over (Papelbon, Cordero, Madson), he does have the stuff to be dominant.  A 13.1 K/9 ratio in 2010 to go along with 30 saves and a 1.11 WHIP would have blown all Blue Jay relievers out of the water. 

As fans, we don’t necessarily to need to see Ryan circa ’06.  But I think we’ll have the feeling of relative ninth inning safety return.

5. Meaningful games in September

It has been a long, long time since fans in this city have had a pennant race to get excited about.  In Toronto, September has become a time to head to the dome to check out how the young call-ups do in their first taste of big league action, or maybe to go bid farewell to a retiring or departing star.  In the past five years, the closest that Toronto has been to a playoff spot on September 1st was in 2007 when they entered the month 6.5 games back of the Wild Card.  A week later and that deficit had swelled to 9.

The last time fans in this city had reason to be excited was way, way back in 2000, when on September 1st the Blue Jays sat at 70-63, just 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians for the AL Wild Card.  By as late as September 21st the Jays were still just 2.5 games back of Oakland and Cleveland, and only 4.5 behind the Yankees for first in the East, before a 2-8 finish ruined the season.  But for that month, baseball excitement gripped the city.

The subsequent years have been brutal. In 2004 the Jays were 24 games out of the playoffs on September 1.  In 2009, they were 16.5 out.  Last year they trailed the Wild Card by 14.

But with a young core of Lawrie, Arencibia, Rasmus, Thames, and Escobar, surrounding the power of Bautista and (maybe) a return to form of Lind, with Romero, Morrow, and Alvaraez leading the rotation, and Santos closing things out in the bullpen, maybe, just maybe, this is the year for meaningful September games.  With the Yankees aging, and turmoil surrounding the Red Sox, the iron curtain between the Jays and the playoffs might be weaker.  Sure Texas and the Angels look formidable, but with an additional Wild Card spot possibly up for grabs in 2012, I expect the Jays to be making noise in September.

Believe.

2011 can be called a “tweener” year for the Blue Jays.  This is a year in franchise history where Toronto transitioned itself from an also-ran to a true contender, by cutting ties with players like Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Johnny Mac, and various relievers, and bringing in new full time superstars in the making like Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and Henderson Alvarez.

Let’s have a look back at they year that was, month by month, both the good and the bad:

January

Highlight

Jan. 21: Jays trade Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  Vernon was the face of the franchise for so many years, but with declining production and his enormous contract he was becoming an anchor on the team.  The fact that Anthopoulos was able to unload him is still seen as incredible, almost a year later.

Lowlight

Jan. 25: Jays trade Mike Napoli to Texas for Frank Francisco.  At the time I liked the deal, but in hindsight it looks pretty bad.  Napoli finished 2011 with 30 HR and a 1.046 OPS for the Rangers.

February

Highlight

Feb. 17: Jose Bautista signs a five-year $65-million extension.  Criticized by many as being an overpayment for one fluke year, Bau proved everybody wrong by having an MVP-calibre season.  That contract looks like a steal now.

Lowlight

Feb. 16: Jays sigm Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal.  He never played a single inning with the team, and all that the signing did was clutter up the outfield in spring training.  Waste.  

March

Highlight

Mar. 31: Toronto hires Roberto Alomar as a special assistant to the organization.  Having the Hall-of-Famer join the front office shows commitment to the history of the club, as well as the future.

Lowlight

Mar. 29: Jose Bautista named right fielder for the 2011 season.  What is bad about the declaration is that by starting Bautista in right, Edwin Encarnacion (a terrible defender) moves to 3B and Juan Rivera (a terrible hitter) to DH.  It took a while, but the Jays eventually made it right, by moving Edwin to DH and Rivera to the Dodgers.

April

Highlight

Apr. 1: Opening Day.  The Jays destroyed Minnesota 13-3 behind 6.1 solid innings by Ricky Romero and a barrage of home runs.  A perfect start to the season.

Lowlight

Apr. 28: Travis Snider is sent to the minors after a 1 for 4 afternoon vs. Texas.  The promising and hyped opening day RF was hitting just .184 with a .540 OPS, 1 HR, and 23 strikeouts on the season.  It was the first of two demotions for Snider in what was a disastrous 2011.

May

Highlight

May 16: The Jays pound out 12 hits in a 4-2 win over Detroit, giving the team six straight wins and pushing them back over .500.  The best news of all is that Kyle Drabek pitches seven solid innings, allowing only one earned run on three hits, giving fans a glimmer of hope that maybe, jusy maybe, he’d figured it out. 

Lowlight

May 7: Toronto is completely destroyed, overpowered, and humiliated by Justin Verlander, suffering the indignity of being no-hit at home.  If not for an Arencibia 8th inning walk, the Jays would have suffered a perfect game.

June

Highlight

Jun. 19: Jays lock up Yunel Escobar with a two year $10-million contract extension.  Yunel is regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and had one of his better offensive seasons in 2011 with a .782 OPS.  A great deal for the Jays.

Lowlight

Jun 12: The Jays are demolished at home by the Red Sox, 14-1.  Kyle Drabek is absolutely horrendous in the start, lasting four innings and giving up 8 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, and 4 BB.  The Jays send him down to the minors after the start – his final one in the big leagues in 2011.

July

Highlight

Couldn’t choose just one, so here are four:

Jul 1 & 2: Roy Halladay makes his return to Toronto.  On the 1st he delivers the Phillies line up to the home plate umpire, receiving a standing ovation in the process, and on the 2nd he shuts the Jays down in a complete game victory – but not before surrendering a MASSIVE home run to Jose Bautista.

Jul 3:  Bautista sets an MLB record for most All-Star votes and earns a starting spot in the mid-summer classic.  He is joined by Ricky Romero in Arizona.

Jul 24: Roberto Alomar and Pat Gillick are officially enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.

Jul 27: Alex Anthopoulos makes one of the biggest moves of his tenure as Jays GM, sending Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart to the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahan, then flipping Jackson along with Corey Patterson, Octavio Dotel, and Marc Rzepczynski to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus and three pitchers.  Rasmus looks set to be a fixture in Toronto for years.

Lowlight

Jul 9: Toronto is thrashed at home by Baltimore 12-4, as Brandon Morrow is lit up to the tune of 6 ER, 9 H, and 3 HR allowed in only 3.1 IP.  The start continues Morrow’s up and down season.

August

Highlight

Aug 5: The future is here.  Brett Lawrie makes his debut in Baltimore, going 2 for 4.  Five days later on August 10th, Lawrie hits his first career grand slam off of Oakland’s Craig Breslow, and goes nuts.  Absolutely nuts.

Lowlight

Aug 25: Manager John Farrell leaves the game with pain in the left side of his chest, and is later diagnosed with pneumonia.  Bench coach Don Wakamatsu takes over in his absence.  Farrell misses 10 games.

September

Highlight

Sep. 5 & Sep. 6: Two great moments in a series vs. the Red Sox.  First on Labour Day, Brett Lawrie breaks a scoreless tie in the 11th inning with a walk-off home run to give the Jays a 1-0 victory and kick-off Boston’s September collapse.  Then the next day, after more than two years away from the game, Dustin McGowan returns, coming out of the bullpen to throw four innings, knocking up five strikeouts.

Lowlight

Sep. 28: Back with the team and picthing out of the bullpen to try and prove he belongs in the big leagues, Kyle Drabek is hammered by the Angels, allowing 6 ER in only 2 IP.  His season ERA now stands at 6.03. 

October

Highlight

Oct. 24: Jose Bautista wins his second consecutive Hank Aaron award, given to the top hitter in each league as voted on by fans and media.

Lowlight

Oct. 28: Jays fans watch in disbelief as Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel celebrate a World Series title with St. Louis.  Dotel was outstanding in the playoffs, after being awful with the Jays in the regular season. 

November

Highlight

Nov. 18: Blue Jays unveil their new logo and uniforms for the 2012 season, a classic look that garners league wide recognition.

Lowlight

Nov. 2: Despite the wishes of many, Johnny Mac re-signs with Arizona.  Many Jays fans expected him to come back to Toronto in the offseason and retire as a Jay. 

December

Highlight

Dec. 6: Toronto acquires closer Sergio Santos from the White Sox for pitching prospect Nestor Molina.  Santos was one of baseball’s best closers in 2011 and he gives the Jays something they have lacked for years – a true, shut-down 9th inning closer.

Lowlight

Dec. 19: With many industry experts predicting Toronto to win the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, fans are stunned and disappointed to learn that the Texas Rangers place the highest bid on the Japanese picthing sensation.  Toronto is left with nothing.

December 23, 2009 – Toronto Blue Jays acquire Brandon Morrow from the Seattle Mariners for Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez (minors)

It was two years ago.  Brandon for Brandon.  League for Morrow.  It was a trade that was rejoiced by Jays fans, the acquisition of a potentially dominant starter for a disappointing and inconsistent reliever.  It was also a trade that was similarly welcomed by Mariners fans, the acquisition of a potentially dominant reliever for a disappointing and inconsistent starter/closer/starter/closer. 

Now that two years have passed, do we have a better understanding of who won the deal?

In my opinion there are two ways that we can answer that question, statistically (by strictly looking at the numbers and on-field performance) and logically (by strictly looking at what each team got against what it hoped for).  I think, to this point, both methods point to Seattle.

The Numbers

2010 and 2011:

Morrow: 21 – 18, 4.62 ERA, 325.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9, 10.5 K/9, 2.82 K/BB

League: 10 – 12, 43 saves, 3.14 ERA, 140.1 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.73 K/BB

Obviously, since Morrow is a starting pitcher, he has far exceeded League in innings pitched.  But League has a far better ERA, much lower WHIP, and walks far fewer batters.  Yes Morrow strikes out substantially more hitters, but League looks to have an edge.

The Logic

The Jays acquired Morrow to develop into a top of the rotation starter, maybe a number two man behind Romero.  So far he has disappointed.  Injury, wildness, and inconsistency have plagued the right-hander in each of his two seasons in Toronto.  We’ve seen absolute dominance (his masterpiece in August 2010 vs. Tampa) and absolute junk (a clunker against KC in August 2011).  There is still a lot to be desired.

On the other hand, Seattle was acquiring a hard-throwing reliever, one who I’m sure the Mariners were hoping could be an effective set-up man.  However, an injury to closer David Aardsma opened the door for League to become the full-time 2011 closer, and he jumped at the opportunity, locking down 37 games with a sub-3.00 ERA and an All-Star nod. 

Advantage: League

So it’s a no-brainer then.  Juding purely by numbers, League has been better.  Judging purely by logic, League has been better.  Therefore Seattle wins the trade.

Except…

Not so fast.

Throw in the following on Morrow’s side, and re-evaluate:

- he had to adjust to being named a full time starter after being screwed around by Seattle in years past

- he was placed under an innings cap in both seasons to slowly stretch him out

- he pitches in the ridiculously tough AL East, negatively skewing his numbers in comparison

Add to that the fact that he is 2 years younger than League, and carries intrinsically more value by being a starter (200+ innings in a season) than a reliever (60-70 innings per year), and I think you’ll see that there is a lot of fight left in the Blue Jay.

In other words, League might very well be at the peak of his value now, while Morrow has a long way to go.

So yes, after two years I’ll give it to the Mariners by a nose, but check back next year.

I expect to see a huge smile on the face of Jays fans.