Smart or Stupid? Looking Back On My Mid-Season Predictions

Judging by the results, I was likely this drunk when making my predictions...

 

At the All-Star break, on July 15th to be exact, I wrote my very first prediction column for 500LevelFan.com.  Now that the regular season has come to an end, it’s time to revisit what I said and see if I am a briliiant prognosticator, or just a regular old idiot.

I can’t comment on the awards yet, obviously, but playoff teams and the random stuff are fair game.

Here we go!

Playoff Spots

AL Prediction – East: Tampa Bay, Central: Minnesota, West: Texas, Wild Card: New York

NL Prediction – East: Philadelphia, Central: Cincinnati, West: San Francisco, Wild Card: St. Louis

Result – Seven out of eight, not bad at all.  I think I deserve a few bonus points for this statement about the NL West:  “San Diego falls apart when their young arms tire, Ubaldo fades, and the Dodgers self destruct.  Giants grab a much needed bat at the deadline and steal the division on the last day.”

Six Random MLB Predictions

1 – Alex Rios hits .097 in September. 

WRONG.  Rios was pretty bad, but at .228 he was much better than I anticipated (or hoped).

2 – Halladay goes 7-0 in September

WRONG.  But, if the Phillies needed him down the stretch, he might have.  Doc finished September at 5-0 with a 3.44 ERA, but since Philadelphia had such a big lead in the East they gave him extra rest.

3 – Prince Fielder is traded to San Francisco

WRONG.  If by Prince Fielder I meant Pat Burrell, then yes. 

4 – Ubaldo Jimenez falls apart in September

UH…UMM…  I wouldn’t exactly call it falling apart, but Jimenez definitely didn’t pitch as well as he did in the first half.  He made seven starts, finishing the month at 2-3, with a 3.57 ERA.  Not bad, but not good enough for the Rockies.

5 – Albert Pujols hits 25 HR in the second half

WRONG.  But very close.  Albert hit 21 after the All-Star break, in 72 games, after hitting 21 in 87 games pre-break.

6 – Pittsburgh continues to suck

YEP.  This one almost doesn’t count it’s such a no-brainer.  After a 30-58 record in the first half, the Pirates actually improved in the second half in terms of winning percentage.  But anyway you slice it, 27-47 sucks.  Big time.

Eight Blue Jay Predictions

1 – Yunel Escobar out-homers Alex Gonzalez 10-3 

WRONG.  Not even close.  Escobar only hit four for the Jays, while Gonzalez knocked out six for Atlanta.

2 – Overbay, Buck, Gregg, Downs, and Frasor are traded – Bautista is not

WRONG.  Wow.  Awful.  The Blue Jays didn’t trade anybody from their major league roster, let alone five players.  Things are not looking good for my predictions…

3 – Bautista finishes 2nd in the AL HR race to Miggy Cabrera with 37

WRONG.  And it gets worse.  This was wrong on many levels.  Bautista finished first, not second.  He hit 54 not 37.  And Cabrera finished third, behind Paul Konerko.  Horrendous. 

4 – Arencibia, Emaus, and Wallace debut, Drabek does not

WRONG.  I will give myself part marks here.  Arencibia and Wallace did make their major league debuts, though Wallace did so for the Houston Astros.  Emaus never was in the conversation of a call up, and Drabek not only debuted, he made three starts.  

5 – Johnny Mac out-homers EE 2-1

WRONG.  This was based more out of my hatred for Encarnacion than reality.   At least that is whay I’ll say now.  But I was WAY off here.  First – Johnny knocked four balls out of the park in the second half, not two.  But EE hit way more than one, going deep 11 times, including five in the last four games.

6 – Purcey becomes closer

WRONG.  Ha!

– Jays win the last home game 6-5, Cito gets a huge ovation

CLOSE ENOUGH.  I’m giving myself this one.  Cito did get a HUGE ovation, and the Jays did beat the Yankees in their final home game.  The score was 8-4, not 6-5. 

8 – Toronto wins 30 in the second half, 74 overall

WRONG.  Judging by the bulk of these predictions I didn’t give Toronto enough credit in any aspect of the game at the All-Star break, but this one is by far the worst.  I pegged the Jays to go 30-43 in the second half and finish with a record of 74-88.  Yikes.  Toronto’s 41-32 record was 11 games better than I thought. 

Results

Aside from predicting the playoff teams (which wasn’t exactly difficult in July) I suck.  I made 22 individual predictions in my mid-season column, and ended up with only nine correct.  That is a 41% accuracy ratio, which pretty much means a big fat FAIL.

But you can bet on one thing – I’ll be back with more predictions tomorrow, playoff predictions.

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