2013 has come to an end, which means it’s time to review just how good 500 Level Fan’s readers were at predicting the season. To refresh your memory about how things looked at the halfway point, click here.
Let’s review this year’s esteemed panel:
500 Level Fan Sr.
Honey Nut Ichiros
King Pin Emo
The most accurate answer from each question will be highlighted.
1. How many home runs will Jose Bautista hit this season?
Final Tally: Oh what could have been. For the second consecutive season Bautista couldn’t avoid injury. He missed 44 games, hampering his production and leaving him with only 28 home runs.
The Predictions: 7 of the 13 predicted a total of 40 or more and everybody predicted over 30. @JPS_82’s pick of 31 wins the category.
2. Who will lead the team in stolen bases, and with how many?
Final Tally: In the end it wasn’t even close. With 45, Rajai Davis blew everybody on the roster out of the water. Second place was Jose Reyes – 30 behind Davis.
3. Predict the number of HR for each of the following: J.P. Arencibia, Brett Lawrie, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind.
Final Tally: Lawrie missed 55 games due to two separate DL stints, and didn’t hit for much power when he was active, finishing with only 11 HR. Lind had a very nice season (23 HR) and Edwin was well on his way to 40+ before injuring his wrist. Still, 36 is a very good total. Arencibia showed he could still hit the long ball, finishing with 21 HR. Unfortunately, he couldn’t do much else.
The Predictions: Outstanding work by @JPS_82 in this category. He was closest on three of the four players, including nailing J.P.’s total of 21 (along with @TheCraiger and Honey Nut). @TOWineMan also showed some good predictive power, exactly picking EE’s total of 36.
4. Will one of Toronto’s main players be traded during the season?
A full oh-fer by the panel. Most foresaw either Rasmus moving, or else nobody being dealt from the roster. AA foiled everybody by shipping Emilio Bonifacio to the Royals in August.
5. Predict Ricky Romero’s performance in 2013
A real waste of a question. Romero threw a total of 7.1 innings for the Jays, finishing with a woeful 11.05 ERA. The closest pick was @altrendy for predicting that Romero would end up on waivers, along with the worst ERA in baseball history. Not far off!
6. Casey Janssen starts 2013 as the closer – who finishes 2013 as closer?
@dsharpdavis, @TOWineMan, and @TheCraiger are the only three who saw Janssen lasting the whole season. Everybody else was high on Santos.
7. Rank Toronto’s three new starting pitchers (R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle) from best to worst in terms of expected 2013 performance
Final Tally: It was a terrible season for Josh Johnson – one of the worst pitching seasons in recent Blue Jay history. He obviously gets the last place spot on the best to worst scale. In terms of who was better – Dickey or Buehrle – let’s look at some numbers. Dickey had more wins (14 to 12), more innings pitched (224.2 to 203.2), and a better WHIP (1.24 to 1.35) than Buehrle. But Buehrle outperformed R.A. in terms of ERA (4.15 to 4.21), K/BB (2.73 to 2.49), and WAR (2.1 to 2.0). Both were disappointing, but Buehrle was a bit less so.
The Predictions: Absolutely nobody foresaw a final ranking of Buehrle / Dickey / Johnson – no points for anybody!
8. How many wins will the improved Jays end up with, and will they make the playoffs?
Final Tally: Awful. Just awful. 74 wins was not what we had in mind.
The Predictions: You know the fans bought in when the lowest win total predicted was 87.
Some pretty impressive work by the 2013 panel. Congratulations to @JPS_82 and @TOWineMan who both finished with four points. They both win a one year subscription to 500LevelFan.com!