It’s hard to believe, but the 2016 regular season is already over 25% finished. That means it’s time for an annual post here on 500 Level Fan where we take a few minutes to have fun with early season stats.
We are approaching late-May, so some teams are establishing themselves as legit (Cubs, Red Sox, Giants), and some look to be already playing for next year (poor, poor Minnesota). But a large majority of teams have fans scratching their heads, wondering if down is up or if up is down.
The White Sox are in first and the Phillies are 5 games over .500. Last year’s AL playoff teams are a combined two games under .500. Perennial playoff entrants St. Louis and the Dodgers are only two games over the break-even mark. Seems weird right?
But the one thing we keep hearing, the one universal caution about assessing performance at this time of year is this: it’s still relatively early.
But it’s never too early to have some fun with stats. Let’s take a look at some early season WAR stats and assess which players may have staying power (both good and bad).
The above tables show the best players in baseball in terms of WAR, and the leaderboard is a healthy mix of guys you would expect to see there and guys you wouldn’t. Machado, Altuve, Trout, and Cano are perennial All-Stars, while Bogaerts and Springer are up-and-coming stars. The biggest surprises have to be Adam Eaton ranked as the best player in all of baseball, and the fact that the two reigning MVP’s are nowhere to be found. Josh Donaldson is the top Blue Jay with a 1.9 WAR, and Bryce Harper is one notch below him at 1.8. I would expect to see them creep up the board as the season moves on. In terms of oWAR and dWAR, seeing Michael Saunders as the top Jays is certainly a nice surprise, and seeing Kevin Pillar ranked T-3rd overall is what we have come to expect.
Most Likely to Stick in Top-10: Machado, Altuve, Trout, Springer, Bogaerts, Cano
Most Likely to Drop Out: Eaton, Piscotty, Perez
Here is where things get a bit upsetting for Blue Jay fans: there is a lot of yellow on those lists. Ryan Goins ranks as one of the worst players in all of baseball thus far, as well as the third worst hitter in the league. Russell Martin and the pre-suspension version of Chris Colabello are right at the bottom in terms of offense. Jose Bautista just misses the list of the worst ten fielders. But there are other names on those lists that have to be troubling to fan bases across the game. Prince Fielder, Kendrys Morales, and Carlos Gomez were huge parts of the 2015 success of Texas, KC, and Houston. Adam Jones has been Baltimore’s rock for years. All are awful right now.
Most Likely to Stick in Bottom-10: Aybar, Pierzynski, Goins
Most Likely to Climb Out: Fielder, Parra
That is a who’s-who of stud pitchers. There are virtually no surprises on that list. Kershaw, Arrieta, Sale, Salazar, Syndergaard, Strasburg: all are Cy Young candidates. I am honestly surprised at the early season success of Cueto – I fully expected him to flame out in SF. Rich Hill continues to be a very nice story and might make for a nice trade deadline acquisition for a contending team. Is Chris Tillman finally putting it all together? I doubt it….
In the worst list, there are two huge names that stand out. The first is the so-called ace of the New York Mets rotation, Matt Harvey. He was counted on to be one of baseball’s top pitchers and has not lived up to the bill yet. The second is huge off-season acquisition Shelby Miller. He has been an absolute bust for Arizona. For Drew Storen to somehow not be in the bottom-10 is somewhat miraculous considering his awful start in Toronto.
Most Likely to Stick in Top-10 / Bottom-10: Kershaw, Arrieta, Sale, Syndergaard, Strasburg / Tolleson, Simon
Most Likely to Drop Out / Climb Out: Tillman, Chatwood / Harvey
As always, we’ll check back on these lists later in the season to see if things become “more normal”.