The Big Five Blues


Don’t worry everybody – it’s OK to be sad.

I think most people in Blue Jays nation are feeling down today after last night’s debacle in Detroit.  For the fourth or fifth time this season the Blue Jays managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in a 3-2 10 inning loss to the Tigers.

It was a waste of monumental proportions.  Obviously there was the wasted start by Aaron Sanchez, who threw the best game of his young career.  Through 8 innings he allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out 12.  It was the best he has ever looked in his Blue Jays career.

Then there was the wasted opportunities.  The Jays were gifted 9 (!) walks by Detroit pitching, were the recipient of a blooper reel error by Bobby Parnell, and put runners on second and third with nobody out in the 9th.  Yet for all of that they only managed to score two runs and left 11 men on base.

And that right there is why they lost the game.

For all armchair managers who were ripping into John Gibbons for leaving Sanchez in for the 9th, or for not ordering more sacrifice bunts, or for not intentionally walking Miguel Cabrera to get to Victor Martinez (who, as an aside, just happens to be the leading hitter in the AL), none of those had anything to do with losing.

It should have been at least 4-0, possibly 8-0, heading into the 9th.  But once again in 2016, the Blue Jays offense was dormant.

This certainly was not the plan coming into the season.  Expectations were of another huge offensive year, with runs piling up in record numbers.  But through 60 games Toronto is on pace to score 670 runs, a staggering 221 fewer than last year.  That is the equivalent of removing the 2015 version of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion from the lineup and replacing them with, well, nobody.

The offense has been bad.  Really bad.  As a team the Blue Jays are hitting .234 with a .716 OPS, down from .269 / .797 in 2015.  With runners in scoring position the average and OPS numbers are .219 / .679 as compared to .286 / .839.  With RISP and 2 out they sit at .219 / .669, down from .243 / .762.  In short, the Jays aren’t hitting, and they are leaving tons of runners on the basepaths.

So who is at fault for this?  Shockingly, you have to look no further than the Big Five.  All season previews started with Toronto’s hitting, led by five of the top sluggers in all of baseball: Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin.  But a deeper dive into their numbers show a significant decline:

Big 5 - Overall

As a unit, the Big 5’s OPS is down nearly 100 points from their career averages, and 130 points from the past 3 years.  Martin and Tulo have been the main culprits, but EE is also way down, and Bautista and Donaldson are also struggling.

Big 5 - RISP

When looking at the numbers with Runners in Scoring Position, it is a similar tale.  Bautista seems to be producing in line with or above his career and recent numbers, but not the case for the rest of the bunch.  EE’s OPS is down over 240 points in 2016 as compared to his 2013-2015 production.  As a unit, the group OPS has fallen from .921 to .727, with a batting average down to the Mendoza line.  Tough to win games with numbers like that.

Big 5 - RISP 2 Out


Big 5 - Late and Close

Getting into some more clutch stats tells the same story.  In late and close situations the Big 5 is putting up a .633 OPS, miles away from what they have done in the past 3 years.  Same for batting with RISP and 2 outs.  Donaldson’s numbers in that category are particularly startling: an .071 average and .563 OPS, down from .307 and .853.

We are now 60 games into the 2016 regular season.  The excuse of “it’s early” no longer applies.  In fact, this is generally the time of year when analysts start to believe the old adage of “what you see is what you get”.  If players with no track record started the season on a tear and are still producing at a high clip, maybe it’s no longer reasonable to expect regression, just as it might not be reasonable to expect players producing well below career norms to rebound.

If that is the case, and Martin, Bautista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki, and Donaldson are starting to decline, then it might be a long, long summer in Toronto.

I, for one, still believe in this group.  I still believe that this is just an extended slump that is unfortunately hitting all five guys at the same time.  One or two extended hot streaks are just around the corner and those numbers presented above will start to rectify themselves.

I just hope I’m not a hopeless dreamer.

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