Halfway Home: Revisiting My 2016 Predictions

Crystal Ball

The 2016 MLB mid-season lull

is in full effect.  The Blue Jays are off until Friday night, meaning we have two straight nights of dead air ahead of us.  To help fill the empty space, today I will take a look at just how bad my 2016 predictions look so far.  It’s a good thing that I didn’t make a wager on any of these and I hope that nobody out there made bets at the best sportsbook.  If so, my apologies.

On with the show!

American League Predictions

East 2016 AL East

Thoughts: This is the tightest division in baseball – only 2 games separate Baltimore, Boston, and Toronto.  Call me a homer, but I think the Jays might be in the best position heading into the second half.  Tampa Bay will definitely not finish third as they look completely lost.  The most interesting story will be if the Yankees sell at the deadline or attempt one last charge at a playoff spot.

Central 2016 AL Central

Thoughts: Almost completely nailed this one at the break.  In a very top and bottom heavy division, Cleveland is comfortably ahead and Minnesota is miles behind.  The middle is very tight, with only 0.5 games separating Detroit, KC, and Chicago.  It’s not out of the realm of possibility that I actually sweep this division.  Shocking!

West 2016 AL West

Thoughts: Maybe I should have made a wager after all.  Texas, Houston, and Seattle as the top-3?  Perfect!  In reality, this division is not nearly as settled as it appears.  With the Astros charging and the Rangers hitting a bit of a rough patch, Houston is suddenly only 5.5 games back after a brutal April.  Oakland and LA look like afterthoughts at this point.

Wildcards

I predicted the Royals and Astros.  As it stands now the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold the two slots, but KC (4.5 GB) and Houston (2 GB) are lurking.

Stat Leaders

2016 AL Stat Leaders

Thoughts:  Of all the years I have been making these predictions, this year looks particularly ugly.  I (among many) was expecting a big year from Bautista in his contract year, but his power numbers are down across the board and now he is battling injury.  Jose Altuve as batting champ seems to be nearly automatic these days, and Kimbrel as saves leader has always been as well – except for this year.  Trailing Britton by 10 saves and now out for 4-6 weeks with a knee injury pretty much seals the deal there.  Not my finest effort.

Awards & Miscellany

MVP – Mike Trout, LAA

– Leads all

of baseball in WAR, so has as good a shot as any.

Cy Young – Chris Sale, CHW

– He started the All-Star game so that is a pretty good endorsement.  Seems to be in good shape for a Cy run.

Rookie – Byron Buxton, MIN

– No.  Oh no.  He has nearly twice the number of strikeouts as he has hits.  That is not good.

Manager – John Gibbons, TOR

– He will never get enough credit, even if the Jays do win the East.

Bounceback Player – Matt Wieters, BAL

– A .728 OPS and an All-Star birth are both good signs.

Most Disappointing Player – Justin Upton, DET

– Others may have worse numbers, but considering the expectations and the big contract, Upton’s .235 average, .670 OPS, -0.2 WAR, and 112 strikeouts takes the cake.

First Major Player Traded – Sonny Gray, OAK

– Unless you count Oswaldo Arcia, there hasn’t been a major American League player dealt yet.  Gray still seems like a good bet.

National League Predictions

East 2016 NL East

Thoughts: Again, not bad at all.  The Mets and Marlins are currently tied in the standings, and with NY’s injury woes and Miami maybe getting a second half boost from Giancarlo Stanton’s HR barrage in the Derby, there may be a chance the Mets slip to third.  I was much too high on Atlanta.

Central 2016 NL Central

Thoughts: The Cubs were an across the board favourite and haven’t disappointed.  I still think the Pirates will emerge over St. Louis for second.  The Reds are just plain awful…..

West  2016 NL West

Thoughts: I decided not to believe in the even year magic, and maybe I should have.  The Giants look strong again.  Arizona has been one of the biggest flops in baseball.

Wildcards

I predicted New York and Pittsburgh, and both teams are definitely in the mix.  It might be tough to keep the Dodgers out, but I still have a chance!

Stat Leaders

2016 NL Stat Leaders

Thoughts: Fantastic on the pitching side, though let’s be honest – picking Kershaw across the board would have been just as easy.  On the offensive side?  Not great.  It has been a bit of a down year for Bryce Harper, especially in comparison to his 2015 season, but he is only six HR back of Bryant.  Goldschmidt still has a shot in the RBI and AVG categories as well.  But unless Gordon comes back from his PED suspension running wild, he is done.

Awards

MVP – Bryce Harper, WAS

– At this point I don’t think he is in the top-5.  Kershaw, Bryant, and Bumgarner all have better shots.

Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw, LAD

– No-brainer #1.

Rookie – Corey Seager, LAD

– No-brainer #2.

Manager – Dusty Baker, WAS

– Tempted to say no-brainer #3, but you can make a case for Maddon, Bochy, or even Mattingly in Miami.

Bounceback Player – Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

– Unless his impressive home run derby performance triggers a huge resurgence, then I don’t think he wins – not with a .233 average and 107 Ks.

Most Disappointing Player – Johnny Cueto, SF

– Not even close.  He has been outstanding as a Giant, earning the start for the NL in the All-Star game.  A huge whiff.

First Major Player Traded – Carlos Gonzalez, COL

– CarGo is still a Rockie.  James Shields wins this prize.

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