Hindsight: Looking Back at Past MLB Drafts

The 2017 MLB draft is less than two weeks away.  The Blue Jays hold the 22nd overall pick as well as the 28th overall pick as compensation for the loss of Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland.  Toronto’s recent first round performance has been hit and miss.  In the past six drafts (2011 to 2016) the club has made 15 first round selections including all compensatory picks.  Other than Dwight Smith’s cup of coffee this year, only Marcus Stroman has reached the big leagues as a Blue Jay.  (Though to be fair, Joe Musgrove and Jeff Hoffman were used to acquire J.A. Happ and Troy Tulowitzki).

As we all know by now the MLB draft is the ultimate crapshoot with so many early round picks flaming out and many late round picks turning into bargains.  The real verdict on many of Toronto’s recent picks (T.J. Zeuch, Jon Harris, Max Pentecost, etc.) won’t be in for several years.  But with the benefit of hindsight we can easily go back and re-grade past drafts.  So to continue a 500 Level Fan tradition, let’s do just that.  To keep it simple I am using Baseball Reference’s WAR stat to rank all players.  It’s not perfect but it’s a nice, convenient stat.  So let’s take a look back at the 2012, 2007, and 2002 MLB drafts (5, 10, and 15 years ago). Armed with hindsight, which is always 20/20, we can see how the draft order might have changed knowing how careers played out.

Note – My re-ranked top-10 list doesn’t take into account things like signability issues, team needs, or draft strategy (i.e. high school vs. college). I simply re-ranked the drafted players based on career WAR (Note: Career WAR totals are as of May 31.

2012 Draft

It often takes several years for drafted players to reach the major leagues. Five years have passed since the ’12 draft, and while many of the drafted players are still young, one would expect the top talents to have found their way to the big leagues by now.

Here are the top-10 picks of the 2012 draft:

Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton were each thought to be sure-fire studs, but to date only one has panned out.  Correa won the Rooke of the Year award in 2015 and is raking again this year for the first place Astros.  Buxton, like the rest of the first round selections, has had a slow start to his career.  Kevin Gausman has showed flashes for the Orioles, but the jury is still out on the rest of the top-10.   Zunino, and Almora have each had a bit of major league success, and both Heaney, and Dahl are currently injured.  Kyle Zimmer is currently toiling in AA and Max Fried has yet to step out of AA.  Mark Appel refused to sign with PIttsburgh, went back in the draft and was chosen #1 overall in 2013 by Houston and has since been traded to the Phillies. They are getting perilously close to being considered busts.

This is what the the top-10 looks like with the magic of hindsight, based on career WAR:

What really stands out about that chart is how solid the first round was outside of the top-10.  Seager, Russell, Stroman, McCullers, and Wacha, have all had great starts to their big league careers, including post season appearances and World Series titles.  Of note, Graveman was drafted 1097th by the Marlins but didn’t sign and was picked up the following year by the Jays, who then packaged him for Josh Donaldson.  Although he is currently the 10th best player out of that draft I think Jays fans everywhere would make that trade again.  And again.

Blue Jay Focus

The 2012 draft was Toronto’s third under Alex Anthopoulos, and has the potential to be outstanding.  Although top pick D.J. Davis (17th overall) looks bad (in his 6th year Davis is still in high A ball in Dunedin), AA used a compensatory pick for failing to sign Tyler Beede in 2011 to draft Marcus Stroman who is a mainstay in the rotation.  Then with pick 112 he gambled on a two sport athlete out of Mississippi who was said to be leanings towards football.  Instead, Anthony Alford stuck with baseball, put up an .867 OPS in New Hampshire this year before being called up to the bigs a few weeks ago.

First Round Picks: D.J. Davis (17th overall), Marcus Stroman (22nd overall)

Total Number of Picks: 44

Number of Players to Reach the Majors: 3

– Marcus Stroman (22nd overall), WAR of 6.9

– Chase De Jong – traded to LA Dodgers for international bonus slots in 2015, then to Seattle in 2017 (81st), WAR of -0.7

– Anthony Alford (112th) – WAR of 0.0

Total WAR = 6.2

2007 Draft

The 2007 draft turned out to be a real mixed bag.  The top-10 produced All Stars, World Series Champions, and several unquestionable busts.

Here are the top-10 picks of the 2007 draft:
Just like in 2012, this was a rare draft where the first overall pick really panned out.  Price was phenomenal in Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Toronto, and is currently a big ticket item for the Red Sox.  Likewise, Madison Bumgarner has been a dominant force in San Francisco, helping the Giants to three World Series titles, including almost single-handedly winning the ’14 edition.   Both Moustakas and Wieters have appeared in the postseason and an All Star game, lending credibility to their selections.  The rest of the top-10 was a bust however.  Josh Vitters hit .121 in 36 games with the 2012 Cubs and is now out of baseball.  Mat LaPorta was a key piece in a CC Sabathia trade, but hasn’t played a big league game since 2012.  That’s more than can be said for Casey Weathers, who never made it above AA.

With the magic of hindsight, here is a re-ranked version of the 2007 draft, based on career WAR:
Chris Sale ranks as the second best player in the draft, but he did not sign with the Rockies and was re-drafted in the first round in 2010.  There were a lot of sluggers selected, including Heyward, Stanton, Freeman, Rizzo, and Lucroy.  And then there was the Bringer of Rain Josh Donaldson drafted with a compensatory pick by the Cubs as a catcher.   He never quite panned out in Chicago, but has done pretty well elsewhere.

Blue Jay Focus

The 2007 draft was completed under the guidance of J.P. Ricciardi, and looks pretty bad in hindsight.  When your top pick doesn’t make the big leagues, you get a big red X.

First Round Picks: Kevin Ahrens (16th overall as compensation for the loss of Frank Catalanotto), J.P. Arencibia (21st overall), Brett Cecil (38th overall, supplemental pick for the loss of Justin Speier), Justin Jackson (45th overall, supplemental pick for the loss of Frank Catalanotto), Trystan Magnuson (56th overall, supplemental pick for the loss of Ted Lilly)

Total Number of Picks: 35

Number of Players to Reach the Majors: 7

– J.P. Arencibia – now retired, (21st), WAR of 2.7

– Brett Cecil – now with St. Louis (38th), WAR of 6.5

– Trystan Magnuson – out of baseball, (56th) WAR of -0.2

– Brad Mills – out of baseball (145th), WAR of -1.5

– Marc Rzepczynski – now with Seattle (175th), WAR of 3.7

– Brad Emaus – out of baseball (355th), WAR of -0.7

– Darin Mastroianni  (505th), WAR of -0.5

Total WAR = 10.0

2002 Draft

To those who say that drafting players should be easy, may I present the 2002 top-10.  Yikes.

Where do we even begin?  Greinke was obviously a great selection by KC, even if he didn’t really come into his own until after he left the Royals.  There are a few classic cases of what could have been with Upton, Francis, and Fielder each seeing their promising careers derailed by injury and/or inconsistency.  But the rest of the lot?  Let’s take a closer look:

Bullington pitched a total of 18.1 innings for the Pirates before bouncing around to a few other clubs including a 6-inning, 6-walk stint for Toronto in 2009.  Beginning in 2011 he spent five relatively successful years in Japan.

Neither Gruler nor Everts ever reached the majors.  Loewen had a few solid months as a pitcher for the Orioles before reinventing himself as an outfielder.  He appeared in 14 games for the Jays in 2011.  Finally, Moore and Meyer made short stops in the major leagues and did nothing that would confuse them for a top-10 pick.

Here is a re-ranked version of the 2002 draft, based on career WAR:

A pretty solid list of players.  The real standout has to be Martin, drafted 511th overall by the Dodgers, and still enjoying a productive career in Toronto.

Blue Jay Focus

2002 was the first draft of the  Ricciardi era and to say it wasn’t great would be an understatement.  The Jays drafted yet another shortstop of the future in the first round, picking Russ Adams with the 14th pick.  Adams went off the board ahead of Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, and Matt Cain in the first round.  He actually enjoyed a fairly productive 2005 season (63 RBI, 11 SB, .707 OPS), but quickly fizzled and did not appear in the majors after 2009.

First Round Pick: Russ Adams (14th overall) – Career WAR: 0.0

Total Number of Picks: 50

Number of Players to Reach the Majors: 8

– Russ Adams (14th), WAR of 0.0

– Dave Bush (55th), WAR of 3.5

– Adam Peterson (116th), WAR of -0.2

– Jason Perry (176th), WAR of -0.5

– Jordan De Jong (536th), WAR of -0.2

– Dewon Day (776th) – WAR of -0.5

– Erik Kratz (866th) – WAR of 0.1

– Drew Butera (1419th) – WAR of -1.3

Total WAR = 0.9

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