Fun With Early Season WAR

It’s hard to believe, but the 2018 regular season is close to 30% complete.  That means it’s time for an annual post here on 500 Level Fan where we take a few minutes to have fun with early season stats.

We are approaching June and the standings are starting to become established.  While things look as expected in some divisions – the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros are sailing right along – things look awry in others.  Cleveland, Minnesota, and the Dodgers are under .500, the Braves and Phillies are pacing the NL East, and the Pirates are near the top of the NL Central.

But the one thing we keep hearing, the one universal caution about assessing performance at this time of year is this: it’s still relatively early.

But it’s never too early to have some fun with stats. Let’s take a look at some early season WAR stats and assess which players may have staying power (both good and bad).

Player WAR

The above tables show the best players in baseball in terms of WAR, and for what seems like first time in the history of this column, there aren’t really any surprises.  Names like Trout, Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, Freeman, Martinez, and Machado are all established stars.  Simmons was great last year and Cain, Herrera, and Belt have always had expectations.  The biggest surprises for me are seeing Jed Lowrie and Ozzie Albies listed in the top-10 in oWAR, meaning they have been some of the best hitters thus far.  In addition, Kevin Pillar’s name pops out once for where it is and once for where it isn’t.  To see him leading the Jays in WAR is a surprise, but to see him not leading the Jays in dWAR is an even bigger one.  In fact, to date Pillar’s dWAR is a rather pedestrian 0.1.  It’s his bat that’s carrying him in 2018.

Most Likely to Stick in Top-10: Virtually everybody

Most Likely to Drop Out: Belt

Here’s where we see some jaw dropping names.  Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond were signed to big contracts not long ago, Jason Kipnis is a former All-Star and Chris Davis is a former HR King.  Over on the dWAR side, while Bryce Harper has never been considered a savant with the glove, to see him listed as one of baseball’s 10 worst is stunning.  And then there is poor Kole Calhoun.  Us Jays fans have had to suffer through the offensive woes of Martin, Travis, Grichuk, and Morales, but to see Calhoun listed – no, buried – that far below is nuts.  So what does a -1.5 oWAR mean in contemporary stats?  How about a .160 average, .399 OPS, 1 HR, and 40 strikeouts to only 7 walks?  Yikes.

Most Likely to Stick in Bottom-10: Davis

Most Likely to Climb Out: Kipnis

Pitcher WAR

I honestly can’t point out any surprises in the top-10.  Sale, Verlander, Scherzer, Severino, Kluber, and deGrom are studs.  Nola, Cole, and Bauer have long been considered breakout candidates and Porcello and Cueto have past success.  Similarly there are few surprises on the worst list.  For fun, let’s add some context to just how bad Grimm has been in KC.  In terms of contemporary stats, a -1.6 WAR translates to: 0-2, 21.86 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 9 walks and 6 strikeouts in only 7 innings.  And we thought Stroman was off to a bad start…..

Most Likely to Stick in Top-10 / Bottom-10: All in the top-10

Most Likely to Drop Out / Climb Out: None

As always, we’ll check back on these lists later in the season to see if things become “more normal”.

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