It’s time.  Can you feel it?  Opening Day is just around the corner!  The Blue Jays get started next week, April 2nd, but MLB kicks off the 2013 campaign Sunday March 31st when AL newcomers Houston host the Texas Rangers.

Over the past week and a half, 500 Level Fan has posted a preview of each of MLB’s six divisions.  Now it’s time to up the ante.  No more “previewing”.  It’s now time to “predict”.  

As always, my predictions should not be wagered upon by anybody, because they will likely all be wrong. 

Like last year, the 500 Level Fan predictions column will be split over two days.  Today I’m going to cover MLB predictions, including final standings, playoff results, award winners, and some miscellaneous categories.  Tomorrow I’ll put my focus on the Blue Jays, with some individual and team predictions. 

So sit back, read on, try not to laugh, and get ready to comment. 

American League Predictions

East

1. Tampa Bay

2. Toronto

3. New York

4. Baltimore

5. Boston

Thoughts: Really wanted to pick the Blue Jays, but with a healthy Evan Longoria, David Price, Fernando Rodney, and rookie hotshot Wil Myers, the Rays should be good – even with Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar…..No team will be in the spotlight more than the Jays, and I think they handle the pressure well enough to reach the postseason…..The Yankees are old, banged up, and getting worse by the day (Vernon Wells???  Really???).  I really wanted to pick them to come last, but they are, after all, still the Yankees.  They’ll find a way to stay competitive…..Baltimore played over their heads last year, and while they won’t regress as far as many think they will, a repeat playoff spot is not happening…..Boston in last?  Absolutely.  John Farrell deserves it!

Central

1. Detroit

2. Kansas City

3. Cleveland

4. Chicago

5. Minnesota

Thoughts: Detroit was supposed to run away with the Central last year but didn’t.  This year, with a healthy Victor Martinez, a full season of Anibal Sanchez, and Torii Hunter, they will…..It’s finally time for Kansas City to make the jump to contender.  This won’t be the year they breakthrough, but a .500 record and meaningful September baseball could be in the cards…..Cleveland is an absolute wild card this year with the rag-tag group of guys they’ve assembled.  I think theywill be up and down, all season long…..Chicago surprised last year, but can they really do it again?…..It’s going to be a long year in Minnesota.  It will be interesting to see if Morneau finishes the season as a Twin.. 

West

1. Texas

2. Anaheim

3. Oakland

4. Seattle

5. Houston

Thoughts: A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman won’t make up for the losses of Josh Hamilon and Mike Napoli, but the Rangers have the pitching depth to contend.  Plus Jurickson Profar will make an impact somewhow…..Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols will ensure there is no slow start, but I’m concerned about the pitching after Weaver and Wilson…..Oakland may very well win the division again, but they’ll need a lot of players to repeat career years, which almost never happens…..Seattle locked up Felix Hernandez and dropped Chone Figgins, so they are automatically better than last year.  Watch for Canadian Michael Saunders…..Houston may very well break the major league record for losses in a season.  That’s how bad they are.  

Wildcards

Jays and Angels

Stat Leaders

HR – Jose Bautista, TOR 

RBI – Albert Pujols, LAA

Average – Mike Trout, LAA

SB – Mike Trout, LAA

Wins – David Price, TB

ERA – Justin Verlander, DET

K – Brandon Morrow, TOR

Sv – Joe Nathan, TEX

Awards & Miscellany

MVP – Jose Bautista, TOR

Cy Young – Justin Verlander, DET

Rookie – Wil Myers, TB

Manager – John Gibbons, TOR

Bounceback Player – Eric Hosmer, KC

Most Disappointing Player – Kevin Youkilis, NYY

First Major Player Traded – Jon Lester, BOS

National League Predictions

East

1. Washington

2. Atlanta

3. Philadelphia

4. N.Y. Mets

5. Miami

Thoughts: The best team in the MLB enters 2013 with enforcements to the rotation, the bullpen, and the outfield – and no restrictions on Stephen Strasburg.  They are heavy favourites…..Atlanta welcomes the Upton brothers, who have both disappointed for years.  If they can realize their talents, the Braves will push the Nats…..Philly is old and grey, but never, ever, bet against Lee, Halladay, and Hamels…..Travis d’Arnaud might make an appearance in 2013, which will make the Mets the most interesting NL team for Jays fans…..What is there to say about the Marlins?  An embarrassment to the game.

Central

1. Cincinnati

2. Milwaukee

3. St. Louis

4. Pittsburgh

5. Chicago

Thoughts: With Chapman going back to the bullpen, the Reds have a lights out relief corps, to go along with a solid rotation, and a powerful offense.  They might not be challenged…..With Braun, Ramirez, and Gallardo, the Brewers can compete with anybody.  The late addition of Kyle Lohse makes them a Wild Card contender…..No Chris Carpenter and no Rafael Furcal means two big holes to fill in St. Louis.  They are always competitive but the playoffs might be out of reach…..I said they’d do it last year and they didn’t. But this year!  This is the year the Pirates win 82 ball games…..The Cubs are getting better, but still a long way away.

West

1. San Francisco

2. Los Angeles

3. San Diego

4. Arizona

5. Colorado

Thoughts: The Dodgers spent the money, but the Giants are the defending champs, and have a dominant starting rotation, and the NL MVP.  It’s their’s to lose…..Can all the big-name, big-money talent mesh in LA?  There are too many questions marks in my opinion…..San Diego ended last season on a tear, but losing Headley for the first month will hurt…..A weird offseason in Arizona will culminate in a season full of struggles.  They will be battling for last…..Walt Weiss inherits a team that can’t pitch, and is just all around bad.  Thank goodness for Carlos Gonzalez.  

Wildcards

Atlanta and Los Angeles

Stat Leaders

HR – Ryan Braun, MIL

RBI – Joey Votto, CIN

Average – Andrew McCutchen, PIT

SB – Bryce Harper, WAS

Wins – Stephen Strasburg, WAS

ERA – Stephen Strasburg, WAS

K – Stephen Strasburg, WAS

Sv – Craig Kimbrel, ATL

Awards

MVP - Joey Votto, CIN

Cy Young – Stephen Strasburg, WAS

Rookie – Adam Eaton, ARI

Manager – Bruce Bochy, SF

Bounceback Player – Adrian Gonzalez, LAD

Most Disappointing Player – Carl Crawford, LAD

First Major Player Traded – Andre Ethier, LAD

Playoffs 

American League

Wildcard Round – Jays over Angels

ALDS – Tigers over Rays, Jays over Rangers

ALCS – Jays over Tigers

National League

Wild Card Round – Braves over Dodgers

NLDS – Nationals over Braves, Reds over Giants

NLCS – Reds over Nationals

World Series

In a series that will mean everything for Canada, with Toronto playing Joey Votto and the Reds, the Jays come out on top to win their first title since 1993.  This is a Toronto Blue Jays site – did you expect anything else???

This division was thrown into turmoil last season with the improbable rise of the Orioles and the collapse of the Red Sox.  Now, there is real potential for further turmoil in 2013.  The Blue Jays were the darlings of the winter with a few mega-trades, and the Yankees are both aging and dropping like flies.  For the first time in a long, long time, the AL East is wide open.

Today 500 Level Fan concludes the 2013 Divisional preview series with a look at the AL East.

Defending Champion

New York Yankees

Past Five Champions

2012 – New York

2011 – New York

2010 – Tampa Bay

2009 – New York

2008 – Tampa Bay

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 97.6

Best Player

Robinson Cano, Yankees

Age (A-Rod, Jeter, Ortiz), injury (Longoria, Bautista), and trades (Adrian Gonzalez, Crawford) sapped this division of a lot of its star power last year.  But you really can’t argue with Robinson Cano being anointed the division’s best.  He reached the .300 average, .870 OPS, 25 HR, 85 RBI, and 100 R plateaus for the fourth straight season.  His 8.2 WAR was second in the AL to Mike Trout.  He won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award, finished in the top-6 of MVP voting for the third straight year, and made his third straight All-Star team.  He’s great with the glove (1.9 dWAR ranked 9th in the AL), and he’s dependable, missing a total of seven games in the past four years.  Now, with the Yankees banged up and old, he’s even more important than ever.  

Honourable Mention: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays; Evan Longoria, Rays

Best Pitcher

David Price, Rays

I don’t have the exact answer, but I’m sure this scenario doesn’t happen very often: BOTH Cy Young award winners wind up in the same division the following year . With the Jays acquisition of R.A. Dickey, that is exactly what happened to the 2013 AL East.  Though Dickey had a great year, the nod for best pitcher goes to defending AL Cy winner David Price.  Price was outstanding for the Rays in 2012: 20-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 205 strikeouts, and 211 IP.  He finished in the AL top-10 in a wide variety of categories, including wins, strikeouts, WHIP, IP, hits / 9 innings, WAR, K/9, complete games, and adjusted ERA+.  With the loss of James Shields, Price will be worth even more to Tampa Bay in 2013.  Expect another big year.

Honourable Mention: CC Sabathia, Yankees; R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays

Three Storylines For 2013

1. Brand New Blue Jays

Enough has been written about it, especially on this site, but there is no denying that the Toronto Blue Jays are the team to watch in 2013.  After the disastrous 2012 came to an end, it was obvious that Toronto had massive holes up and down the lineup, especially in the starting rotation, left field, shortstop, second base, and manager.  Through a series of shrewd moves by GM Alex Anthopoulos, those holes have been filled, and for the most part filled with All-Stars: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, and John Gibbons.  Add those players to a core that includes a now-healthy Jose Bautista and Sergio Santos, along with Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Morrow, Brett Lawrie, and Casey Janssen, and the Jays look stacked.  There are still a lot question marks (CF, 1B, 5th starter), but for the first time in a long time the positives outweigh the negatives.  Could this be a playoff season?   

2. A-Rod (or A-Fraud)

There is no denying that Alex Rodriguez has been one of the greatest players in the history of baseball.  There is also no denying that he has been a distraction wherever he has been, whether it be his fault or the media’s fault.  In the past, his production always outweighed his distraction.  But that is no longer the case.  Coming off a 2012 in which he missed 40 games and posted fewer than 20 HR and a sub .800 OPS, A-Rod has a lot to prove in 2013.  The only problem is that he won’t be able to prove anything for a long time, with a bum hip set to keep him out of the lineup for possibly half the season – maybe more.  If that wasn’t bad enough for A-Rod and the Yankees, along comes stories linking Rodriguez with Biogenesis, a South Florida clinic with ties to performance enhancing drugs.  With the cloud of scandal seemingly surrounding him at every turn, it will be interesting to see what happens with the former MVP.  Will he play?  Will he be suspended?  Will he be released?  Stay tuned.

3. Division in Transition

It used to be easy to predict the AL East.  New York, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore.  Done.  Those days are gone.  Tampa’s rise in 2008 made the division a three-horse race, and now two of those horses appear to be on their way out.  Boston is coming off a last place finish and doesn’t look like a contender this season, and the Yankees are a mess.  They lost Russell Martin in the offseason and will go with a collection of scrubs at catcher . Both Jeter and Rivera are trying to come back from major injuries.  Sabathia is coming off shoulder soreness and has only thrown 5 innings in the spring.  A-Rod will miss half the season.  And thus far in the spring they have lost both Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira for an undisclosed length of time.  The Yankees will be led by Robinson Cano, 40-year old Andy Pettitte, and former Boston star Kevin  Youkilis, who is a shell of his former shelf.  With last year’s rise of the Orioles, and the turnaround by Toronto, it’s not inconceivable that the former powers will become bottom feeders. 

Interesting Stat

There are a variety of stats that show just bad 2012 was for the Blue Jays starting rotation.  In terms of starters ERA, they were 10th at 4.82.  They also finished 11th in the AL in innings pitched with 916, 5th in HR allowed (134), dead last in walks (368), third last in K/9 (6.3), and dead last in K/BB (1.74).  In other words, Toronto’s starters didn’t pitch very deep into games, yet still walked more batters than any other team – by a wide margin.  Then there is this stat: 36 pitchers in the American League qualified for the ERA title (minimum 162 IP), and only two were Blue Jays: Henderson Alvarez finished 29th on the ERA leaderboard (4.85) and Ricky Romero, who finished dead last (5.77).  Romero also finished dead last with a -1.7 WAR.  Or, finally, this stat: due to injury and ineffectiveness, 12 different pitchers started a game for the Jays last year.  There was no secret what part of the team had to improve for Toronto to become a contender, and also no surprise that Dickey, Johnson, and Buehrle were brought in to right the ship.

Who Should Win

Tanpa Bay

Who Will Win

Find out in my season prediction column on March 25th

Everything that was supposed to happen last year in this division didn’t.  Detroit was supposed to run away with it – but didn’t.  Chicago was supposed to finish dead last – but didn’t.  Kansas City was supposed to be much improved – but wasn’t.  On paper, the same thing is expected out of Detroit and KC in 2013.  With the Twins in the division, Chicago might be safe from the basement.  But, really, who knows?

Today we take a look at the AL Central.

Defending Champion

Detroit Tigers

Past Five Champions

2012 – Detroit

2011 – Detroit

2010 – Minnesota

2009 – Minnesota

2008 – Chicago

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 90.6

Best Player

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

He won the American League MVP.  He captured baseball’s first Triple Crown in over 40 years.  He reached 30 HR for the 6th consecutive year, 100 RBI for the 9th consecutive year, a .900+ OPS for the 4th consecutive year, 30 doubles for the 9th consecutive year, and a WAR of over 6 for the 3rd consecutive year.  In other words, not only is Miguel Cabrera amazing – he is consistently amazing.  Not even a position switch to third could slow him down, and he actually performed much better in the field than anybody anticipated.  Nobody else in the division even comes close.  

Honourable Mention: Prince Fielder, Tigers; Joe Mauer, Twins

Best Pitcher

Justin Verlander, Tigers

Just as no player comes close to Miggy, no pitcher comes close to Verlander.  Think about this: last season, Verlander’s innings pitched, strikeouts, batters faced, and ERA+ were all down from his 2011 MVP season.  Yet he still led the league in each of those categories.  Toss in a 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 6 complete games, and you have the most dominant pitcher in baseball.  He finished second in Cy Young voting to David Price, and 8th in MVP voting, and enters 2013 as the front runner to recapture the Cy. 

Honourable Mention: James Shields, Royals; Max Scherzer, Tigers

Three Storylines For 2013

1. Weakest in Baseball?

It used to be the NL Central, or maybe the NL West.  But it’s clear heading into 2013 that the AL Central has become the weakest division in baseball.  Over the past five seasons, a team has won the diviison with fewer than 90 wins three times, including Detroit with 88 wins last year.  The average number of wins by the division champions during that stretch is 90.6, over one full win less than the NL West.  Detroit brings back last year’s team, and adds Victor Martinez (injury), Torii Hunter (free agent), and a full season from Anibal Sanchez, so they should be better.  But Minnesota looks awful.  Who knows what Chicago team will show up?  Kansas City should improve, but we’ve been saying that for three straight years.  And the Indians signed a bunch of castoffs and are a massive question mark.    

2. Kansas City Dreamin’

When a team is stocked with so many young, talented players, it’s only natural to assume that their time is coming .  With Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler on the team, and other top prospects arriving, Kansas City should be ready to contend.  But just like the Edmonton Oilers in the NHL, young talent doesn’t automatically mean success.  The Royals slumped to 72 wins last year, mostly because of a pitching staff that was horrendous.  Only one starter had an ERA of under 4.20, and three starters had ERA’s of over 5.00.  So the Royals made a big move in the offseason, trading one of the game’s best prospect to Tampa Bay for James Shields and Wade Davis.  Both pitchers instantly make the rotation better, and should be enough to push KC to the .500 mark.  The key word, of course, is should….

3. Remade Tribe

A recent article in Sports Illustrated compared the 2013 Cleveland Indians spring camp to that of the ficitional Indians from the movie Major League.  And why not?  Cleveland has assembled a colourful bunch of characters put together via big-name free agent signings, trades, and off-the-wall, under-the-radar, shots in the dark.  Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and new manager Terry Francona instantly give the Indians more credibility, as do Drew Stubbs (acquired from the Reds) and young fireballer Trevor Bauer (acquired from Arizona).  And then you have the following: Scott Kazmir, Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jason Giambi, all trying to prove that they still have what it takes to play in the bigs.  If all goes right, Cleveland could become the surprise team of the year, and knock off the Tigers for the title.  However, if it goes wrong, it could go spectacularly wrong…

Interesting Stat

The Minnesota Twins used to be a model of consistency.  They were a team that had a few superstars, but were built around pitching and defense.  Names like Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan were synonymous with both Minnesota and success.  That was not the case in 2012 – not even close.  According to baseball reference’s WAR stat, the Twins pitching staff put up a WAR of -3.3 in 2012.  In other words, a staff full of replacement players, AAA-level players would have been three wins better!  To put that in context, the division champion Tigers had an overall pitching WAR of 23.2, basically making them 26.5 games better.  The Twins imported a few pitchers to try and improve that stat (Vance Worley and Kevin Correia), but something tells me it’s going to be another long year in Minnesota.

Who Should Win

Detroit. 

Who Will Win

Find out in my season prediction column on March 25th.

With the addition of the Houston Astros, the division increased in size, and with Josh Hamilton’s defection from Texas to LA (after spurning Seattle), it increased in intensity and venom too.  Two of baseball’s best teams reside here, and that doesn’t even include the defending champion A’s, and the improved Seattle Mariners.  And then there is Houston.  Poor, poor Houston…

We continue our divisional previews with a look at the AL West.

Defending Champion

Oakland Athletics

Past Five Champions

2012 – Oakland

2011 – Texas

2010 – Texas

2009 – LA Angels

2008 – LA Angels

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 95.4

Best Player

Mike Trout, Angels

If you think it’s crazy anointing a guy entering his second full year as the best player in a divison that contains Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Adrian Beltre, then you probably didn’t follow baseball last year.  Mike Trout had a season for the ages, putting up insane numbers: .326 average, .963 OPS, 30 HR, a league leading 49 SB and only 5 (!!!) caught stealing, a league leading 129 runs, and a league leading 171 OPS+.  Oh yeah – he didn’t even start playing until late-April after beginning the year in the minors.  He also was incredible in CF, making higlight reel catches seemingly every week.  As a rookie, he put up a 10.7 WAR, which equates to the 79th best single season in the history of baseball.  Again – Trout was a rookie who turned 21 in August.  Atop a stacked Angels lineup in 2013, he has a chance to be even better.  

Honourable Mention: Albert Pujols, Angels; Josh Hamilton, Angels

Best Pitcher

Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Just another ho-hum season for King Felix in 2012, with a sub 3.50 ERA, 230+ innings, 215+ strikeouts, an All-Star appearance, and a top-5 finish in Cy Young voting.  He also topped the AL with five shutouts pitching for a Seattle team that continues to be atrocious offensively.  Amid rumours that the Mariners may look to deal their ace, Seattle did the opposite and signed Hernandez to a massive extension in the offseason, ensuring that he will be around to terrorize AL West opponents for a long, long time.

Honourable Mention: Jered Weaver, Angels; Yu Darvish, Rangers

Three Storylines For 2013

1. Angels Offense

Imagine being a starting pitcher stepping on the mound to face the Angels in the first inning.  All you have to do is get yourself prepared to face Mike Trout, Howie Kendrick, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Trumbo.  Piece of cake right?  With the addition of Hamilton, the Angels might have the scariest top of the lineup in baseball.  Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, and Trumbo are each capable of hitting 30, 40, maybe even 50 home runs in 2013, and nobody would be surprised if they came close to doing it.  The real issue for this team, however, is who comes after those guys?  Peter Bourjos, Alberto Callaspo, Erick Aybar, Chris Iannetta, Hank Conger, and Vernon Wells?  Doesn’t exactly strike fear into opponents.  With a rotation that doesn’t exactly dominate after Weaver and Wilson, the onus will be on the bottom of the order to provide enough RBI opportunites for the mashers at the top.  Failure to do so might result in another disappointing October.  

2. Can Oakland Do It Again?

To say that the A’s shocked baseball would be putting it lightly.  Most, if not all, baseball publications predicted Oakland to finish last in 2012 – and not only last, but waaaaaaaaaay back of the leaders.  But on the strength of a bunch of no-name kid pitchers (Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, Travis Blackley, A.J. Griffin), a fat, over-the-hill pitcher (Bartolo Colon), a discarded Boston Red Sox OF (Josh Reddick), and a hulking Cuban import (Yoenis Cespedes) the A’s won 94 games to steal the division away from Texas.  Now – can they do it again in 2013?  The rotation is another year older (and maybe better), and they will have a full season from Brett Anderson.  The offense should also be improved with the additions of Jed Lowrie, John Jaso, and Chris Young.  However, it’s always easier being the hunter than the hunted.  It will be interesting to see how Oakland fares with targets on their backs.

3. The Poor, Poor Astros

Chris Carter, Justin Maxwell, Fernando Martinez, Matt Dominguez, Tyler Greene, Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and Jason Castro.  That is the current depth chart of the Astros.  Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Philip Humber, Jordan Lyles, and Erik Bedard make up the proposed starting rotation.  Houston’s highest salary in 2013 belongs to Wandy Rodriguez, who pitches for the Pirates.  Nobody earns more than $3-million, or 10% of A-Rod’s salary.  And now they are in a division with Oakland, LA, Texas, and Seattle.  Oh no.  Houston might be moving in the right direction, but it’s going to take a while to get there, and 2013 is not even close.  Close your eyes kids, this could get ugly. 

Interesting Stat

The major league single season record for runs scored is 198, set by Billy Hamilton in 1894.  The modern era record (1950 and later) is 152, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000.  Last season Mike Trout scored 129 runs for the Angels, 20 more than Miguel Cabrera who finished second.  Mike Trout only played 139 games for the Angels in 2012.  Projected over a full 162-game schedule, he would have crossed the plate 150 times.  Now in 2013, he has an added advantage – Josh Hamilton.  If Trout is on-base and Albert Pujols can’t knock him, more than likely Josh Hamilton will.  While the 198 runs scored record is likely safe, there is a very good chance that Bagwell could be stepping aside.

Who Should Win

Los Angeles

Who Will Win

Find out in my season prediction column on March 25th

For the third consecutive season it was home to the team with the most wins in baseball, this time the surprising 98-win Nationals, who broke Philadelphia’s strangle hold on the division.  This season it just might be one of the most competitive divisions in the league, with the Nationals battling the rebuilt Braves, and a Phillies team trying to prove they still have some fight left.  

We continue our divisional previews with a look at the NL East.

Defending Champion

Washington Nationals

Past Five Champions

2012 – Washington

2011 – Philadelphia

2010 – Philadelphia

2009 – Philadelphia

2008 – Philadelphia

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 96.4

Best Player

David Wright, Mets

There are a crazy amount of exciting young players in the division, but none of them can touch David Wright at this moment.  Wright re-claimed his place among baseball’s elite last season, proving that an injury shortened 2011 was a fluke.  He hit .306, with 21 HR, 93 RBI, an .883 OPS, and stole 15 bases.  His 6.7 WAR was the fourth highest among all National League players (including pitchers), and was far above the next best player in the NL East – Jason Heyward’s 5.5 (Michael Bourn put up a 6.0 but has moved to Cleveland).  On top of that, he was a rock at third, posting a 2.1 dWAR, good enough for fifth best in the NL.  Wright signed an 8-year extension witth the Mets in the offseason ensuring that he’ll be a part of the team for basically the rest of his career.  It may be a long year in New York, but expect Wright to put up another monster season. 

Honourable Mention: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins; Bryce Harper, Nationals

Best Pitcher

Cliff Lee, Phillies

There are suddenly an embarrassment of riches in this division on the mound.  Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Dan Haren, and Kris Medlen to name a few.  But for me, nobody matches Lee.  At 34 he is on the downside of his career, but you’d never know by looking at his numbers.  2012 was another sensational season for Lee, and also added more proof that wins are a meaningless stat.  Lee put up a 3.16 ERA, 207 strikeouts, a 1.11 WHIP, a 4.2 WAR, and showed how ridiculous his control is by leading the league in both BB/9 and K/BB – by a MILE.  His BB/9 was a nonsensical 1.19 (Bronson Arroyo was second at 1.56), and his K/BB was a crazy 7.39 (miles ahead of Joe Blanton’s 4.88).  And his reward for that brilliance?  A record of 6-9 and not a single Cy Young vote.  Though he may be surpassed by others soon, he is still the king of the hill for now.

Honourable Mention: Stephen Straburg, Nationals; Craig Kimbrel, Braves

Three Storylines For 2013

1. Youth is Served

There’s no doubt that baseball is becoming a young man’s game, and you need look no further than the NL East to prove it.  This division is stacked with young talent – and by young talent I don’t mean prospects.  I mean All-Star calibre players right now!  The following players in the NL East are curently 25 years old or younger: Ben Revere (Phillies), Ike Davis (Mets), Matt Harvey (Mets), Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins), Justin Upton (Braves), Jason Heyward (Braves), Craig Kimbrel (Braves), Bryce Harper (Nationals), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals), Danny Espinosa (Nationals), and Drew Storen (Nationals).  That’s not to mention the prospects that are coming, including Travis d’Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, and others.  All that means that the NL East, already one of the best division’s in baseball, is only going to get better – especially the team in Washington. 

2. Last Shot for Philly?

When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee for the 2011 season to team with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt, there was talk of a World Series dynasty.  What else was to be expected when you add a dream rotation to an offense consisting of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, and Victorino?  Well, here we are two years later and Philly has zero World Series titles and is coming off a debacle of a 2012: 81-81 and 17 games back in the division.  Even worse, the core of the team is aging.  At the end of the 2012 season, Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Lee, Halladay, and Jonathan Papelbon were all 31 or older.  So what did they do in the offseason?  Bring in aging vets Michael Young, and Mike Adams, along with “27-going-on-50″ year old Delmon Young.  Newly acquired Ben Revere, and long-time prospect Domonic Brown are the only “young” position players.  2013 might be the final chance for this team to win.

3. A Mess in Miami

It’s funny: if you read the 2012 Division Preview for the NL East, the Marlins were in the top-3 storylines for all the right reasons.  Now, after an offseason where they unloaded virtually all of their stars, alienated their fan base, angered the commissioner, and infuriated their lone remaining star, they make it for all the wrong reasons.  Miami should be terrible on the field in 2013, but the real story will be off the field.  How many fans will show up?  How many will show up simply to boo and make their anger known?  Will Stanton join the parade out of town?  Jeffrey Loria was already enemy number one in many cities.  He is now the most hated man in Florida too. 

Interesting Stat

The Washington Nationals won 98 games in 2012.  They also topped the National League in starter’s ERA with a 3.40 mark.  Normally that would be a warning - potential regression to the mean, can’t depend on the starting pitching again, and so on.  But not here.  Because the Washington Nationals accomplished that with less than a full season of Stephen Strasburg.  In 2013, there will no longer be an innings limit and potential shutdown of baseball’s most exciting young pitcher.  On top of that, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann are both entering their age 27 season, and the Nats replaced an erratic Edwin Jackson with the dependable Dan Haren.  And just in case they ever need the bullpen, that should be better too, with a full season of Drew Storen and the addition of Rafael Soriano.  If all goes right, that 3.40 ERA could be much lower.

Who Should Win

Washington

Who Will Win

Find out in my season prediction column on March 25th

Last year the NL Central lost baseball’s best player when Albert Pujols fled to the AL West.  This year they lost an entire team – gone are the Houston Astros, who take with them a bunch of easy wins for the rest of the division.  But there is still some humour within the Central’s confines.  The Cubs are still here.

Let’s continue the 500 Level Fan Divisional previews with a look at the NL Central.

Defending Champion

Cincinnati Reds

Past Five Champions

2012 – Cincinnati

2011 – Milwaukee

2010 – Cincinnati

2009 – St. Louis

2008 – Chicago

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 94.4

Best Player

Ryan Braun, Brewers

Until last season, this division had produced four consecutive NL MVP winners, and last year Ryan Braun easily might have won his second in a row.  He lead the league in runs (108), home runs (41), and OPS (.987).  He hit over .300 for the fourth straight season, and stole 30 bases for the second straight.  The school of thought was that Braun would struggle in 2012 due to the scandal of his positive test in the fall of 2011, and with him no longer having the protection offered by Prince Fielder.  Instead Braun made his fifth consecutive All-Star appearance, won his fifth straight Silver Slugger award, and finished in the top-25 of MVP voting for the sixth straight year.  With injuries hampering Joey Votto, the best player in this division is a no-brainer.  

Honourable Mention: Joey Votto, Reds; Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Best Pitcher

Aroldis Chapman, Reds

In a division without any true superstar starting pitchers, the best pitcher just might be a man without a position.  Chapman enters the spring with an uncertain future: will he start or will he close?  For the argument in favour of him closing, look no further than his 2012 stat line: 71.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 38 saves, 0.81 WHIP, 122 strikeouts, for a 15.3 K/9 ratio.  Even more impressive is how the lefty, who routinely hits 100 MPH, fared against his own division.  Facing Central division opponents he posted 20 saves, with a 1.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a ridiculous 16.87 K/9.  If he can translate even half of that success into starting, then look out…

Honourable Mention: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Johnny Cueto, Reds

Three Storylines For 2013

1. Will Anybody Challenge Cincy?

The Reds were a rarity in baseball last season – they kept their starting five healthy all season.  Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Mike Leake started 161 of Cincy’s 162 games.  All five of those pitchers return, along with Aroldis Chapman and new signing Jonathan Broxton, to give the Reds a formidable pitching staff . That alone might be enough for the Reds to contend, but then you add a healthy Joey Votto, an ever-improving Jay Bruce, steady-as-can-be Brandon Phillips, a full season from rookie Todd Frazier, and newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo? Scary.  It looks like the Central is Cincinnati’s to lose.

2. Outage on the Mound

The fact that Cincinnati brings back its full starting rotation automatically gives them a leg up on the rest of the division.  Consider the turmoil everybody else went through in terms of their rotations.  Cubs ace Matt Garza will begin the season with injury concerns.  The Brewers traded Zack Greinke away at last year’s deadline, and then let Shaun Marcum sign elsewhere.  Pittsburgh is banking on substantial contribution from a fragile Francisco Liriano.  And the Cardinals let Kyle Lohse go, and then lost Chris Carpenter to a season (and maybe career ending) injury.  Even the Reds have a self-inflicted question mark, in terms of what to do with Chapman. 

3. Is This Pittsburgh’s Year (Finally)?

1992 was long, long time ago, but that is how long it’s been since the Pirates finished over .500.  In each of the past two seasons they have reached the All-Star break riding high, only to suffer a second half collapse.  But this year, 2013, might finally – finally! – be the year they break through.  Andrew McCutchen is one of the most exciting players in baseball, and he is not alone in the Pirates lineup.  Neil Walker is solid at second, Pedro Alvarez finally showed some promise by slugging 30 HR last year, and youngster Starling Marte looked good in a 47 game audition.  Add to that catcher Russell Martin, signed as a free agent, and there is some pop up and down the order.  There are major questions with the rotation, but you could do worse than A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez at the top.  While they might not reach the playoffs, 82 wins should be well within Pittsburgh’s sights….finally.

Interesting Stat

The Brewers finished four games above .500 and only five games out of the second Wild Card in 2012, and they did that despite having the worst bullpen in all of baseball.  The Brewer’s bullpen had a 4.66 ERA (worst), 1.48 WHIP (second worst), and 234 walks (third worst), and also posted an abysmal 4.84 ERA in save situations.  For comparative purposes, the best bullpen in the league (Atlanta) posted a 1.68 ERA in save situations.  That high late game ERA contributed to this damning stat – the Brewers as a team lost nine games from save situations.  If they would have lost half as many, they were a playoff team.  John Axfod and co. have a lot of making up to do in 2013.

Who Should Win

Cincinnati. 

Who Will Win

Find out in my season prediction column on March 25th.

It’s that time of year again, time for the 500 Level Fan to start embarrassing himself with futile, sad, and mind-blowingly awful predictions.  Last year I introduced a divisonal preview concept that seemed to go over well, so I’ve decided to bring it back for 2013.  These preview posts should be seen as a division primer, so we can get to know the best players and teams, along with some interesting storylines, in each.  These won’t have my actual predicted order of finish – just a quick snapshot.  The predictions come later.

We’ll begin today with the NL West.

Defending Champion

San Francisco Giants

Past Five Champions

2012 – San Francisco

2011 – Arizona

2010 – San Francisco

2009 – Los Angeles

2008 – Los Angeles

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 91.8

Best Player

Buster Posey, Giants

Though there are a lot of great players in this division, it’s hard to argue against the defending NL MVP.  When Posey returned from a gruesome leg injury in 2011, the hope was that he’d last the season without any further complications to his leg.  Not only did he last – he dominated.  Posey led all major leaguers with a .336 average, slugged 24 home runs, drove in 103 runs, put up a .957 OPS, and a 7.2 WAR.  He did all of that while playing over 75% of his games (112 to be exact) at baseball’s most demanding position.    Oh – and he also tacked on 16 more games in the playoffs, leading the Giants to their second World Series title in three years.  And the scary part?  He’ll only be 26 on Opening Day. 

Honourable Mention: Matt Kemp, Dodgers; Chase Headley, Padres

Best Pitcher

Matt Cain, Giants

Cain has been a dominating pitcher for years, but was consistently overshadowed by other pitchers on his on team (see Lincecum, Tim and Wilson, Brian).  That is no longer the case.  2012 was the sixth consecutive season the right hander posted better than a 3.0 WAR according to baseball reference, finishing with a 3.5.  He also put up a 16-5 record, 2.79 ERA, and a sparkling 1.04 WHIP to finish 6th in Cy Young voting and make his third NL All-Star team.  While the Giants still have an outstanding rotation (Lincecum, Vogelsong, Zito, and Bumgarner), it will be Cain who leads the team as they chase a third title in four years.  

Honourable Mention: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Zack Greinke, Dodgers

Three Storylines For 2013

1. A Dynasty by the Bay?

No team has won back-to-back World Series since the 2000 New York Yankees beat the Mets to win their third straight.  That was also the last team to win as many as two titles in three years – until the 2012 Giants.  Now the Giants enter the 2013 season with virtually the same team that beat the Tigers last October, and should be the favourites to get back to the Fall Classic.  But a funny thing happened over the winter: the Dodgers stole all the headlines, meaning San Francisco will be right back in a position that they love – under the radar.  With defending MVP Buster Posey, an incredible rotation and bullpen, and full seasons from Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval, the Giants are poised to be called something that hasn’t been used since those Yankee teams – a dynasty.

2. Dodger Dollars

One year ago, in March of 2012, a consortium named Guggenheim Baseball Management, which included controlling partner Mark Walter and Magic Johnson, purchased the Dodgers for a record $2.15 billion.  They inherited a team that had finished in third place in 2011, and promised a return to glory.  Armed with a boatload of cash, the ownership group is certainly not holding back on that promise.  The Dodgers already had two of the brightest young players in the game in Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp.  Now they have a team full of stars, having added Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, and import Hyun-Jin Ryu.  On paper they look like a good bet to win the division.  But they share a city with another super team who couldn’t translate “on paper” into wins.  It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers become the next powerhouse, or baseball’s version of the Lakers.

3. Bizarro Arizona

The D-Backs won the NL West in 2011, but fell back to Earth with a disappointing 81-81 record last year.  However, armed with a bunch of young talent, they still appeared to be a team on the rise.  Then this past winter happened, and Arizona left many people scratching their heads.  In October they dealt OF Chris Young to Oakland, and brought in light hitting Cliff Pennington and 2012 disaster Heath Bell.  Then in December they traded top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer to the Indians for a relief pitcher and a SS prospect.  Finally in January, the big one – Justin Upton dealt to the Braves for a collection of prospects.  It’s not often that a team loses three of the best young players and improves.  GM Kevin Towers took a massive gamble.  Now we wait to see if it pays off.

Interesting Stat

Times have certainly changed in the NL West.  It used to be the division where players put up cartoon-like power numbers, thanks to Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, and the thin air in Colorado.  Now?  Not so much.  27 players hit 30 HR last season, and only two of those played in the NL West: Chase Headley (31) and Jason Kubel (30).  By comparison, the NL Central had seven.  Furthermore, the bottom three spots on the team HR list are all NL West squads: San Diego (121), LA (116) and San Fran (103).  

Who Should Win

Los Angeles 

Who Will Win

Find out in my season prediction column on March 25th.

As has become commonplace here on 500 Level Fan, it’s once again time to embarrass myself.

I am a lousy baseball prognosticator.  My regular season predictions stink.  My postseason predictions stink.  My mid-year predictions stink.  My Blue Jay specific predictions stink. 

And as we will re-confirm today, my free agency predictions stink too.  Only this year, they are worse than ever.  Coming into this off-season I was batting .273 – 6 correct free agent predictions out of 22 over the past two winters.

That number is going way, way down.  Take a look:

The “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” Division

Zack Greinke

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Actual: Los Angeles Dodgers

I got the city right!  That should count for something!  In hindsight, this was pretty obvious.  Everybody knew Greinke woudl be chasing a top dollar contract, and both LA teams are flush with cash.  But with his preference to remain in the National League, the choice should have been the Dodgers all the way.  This was a miss.

Angel Pagan

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Actual: San Francisco Giants

Nailed it – though this was pretty much a gimme.  After winning the World Series with a gritty team that was full of fan favourites, there was no way the Giants were going to let Pagan go.  Was a 4-year / $40-million deal with a $5-million signing bonus a bit excessive for a 31-year old outfielder with a career .757 OPS?  Probably, but that’s another argument.

The “I Guess I’ll Stay” Division

Mike Napoli

Predicted: Texas Rangers

Actual: Boston Red Sox

I didn’t have confidence in this pick when I made it, and I was obviously not even close.  Maybe the hip problem factored into Texas’ decision not to re-sign Napoli, but they appeared to have little or no interest in bringing him back.  A 1-year deal with Boston could work out well for both sides. 

The Logical Train of Thought Division

Michael Bourn

Predicted: Cincinnati Reds

Actual: Cleveland Indians

At least I got the state right – I knew he would go to Ohio!  Actually, Cincinnati kind of played a part with this signing.  They acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians in a trade early in the offseason, solving their CF and leadoff issue, but opening the same void in Cleveland.  Still – I don’t think anybody expected this one.

Kyle Lohse

Predicted: Los Angeles Dodgers

Actual: UNSIGNED

With a 16-3, 2.86 ERA 2012 season, Lohse was expected to be a big player on the free agent market.  Naturally, I thought he’d go to the Dodgers.  Though he still remains unsigned, I’m confident he won’t end up in Tinsel Town.  With a SP depth chart consisting of  Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano, and Chad Billingsley, things look pretty crowded on the mound already for the Dodgers.

The “I Have Absolutely No Idea” Division

Josh Hamilton

Predicted: Boston Red Sox

Actual: Los Angeles Angels

A year after coming out of nowhere to sign Albert Pujols, the Angels did it again to steal Hamilton away from their division rivals in Texas.  Boston was mentioned in a few rumours as a potential landing spot for Hamilton, but never really came close to signing him.

Nick Swisher

Predicted: Chicago Cubs

Actual: Cleveland Indians

I had no reason for choosing the Cubs.  It was just a wild guess.  I deserved to get this one wrong.

B.J. Upton

Predicted: Philadelphia Phillies

Actual: Atlanta Braves

Though there was never any reports actually linking Upton to the Phillies, the fact that one week after Atlanta inked him to a big contract, Philly made a deal with Minnesota for CF Ben Revere means they were at least contemplating adding Upton, right?  Doesn’t it?  Please?

Delmon Young

Predicted: Houston Astros

Actual: Philadelphia Phillies

After I guaranteed he’d stay in the AL because he can’t field, the Phillies go and snap him up.  Crazy.  But I guess there’s no better place for an old, over-the-hill player than in Philadelphia, right?  The old, decrepit Young joins veterans like Halladay, Lee, and Utley in try—wait, what?  Young is only 27?  He looks like he could be 40…

There you have it.  Nine predictions, one right, a batting average of .111.  Add that to the last two years, and my career average is now at .226.  Still better than Adam Dunn!!

If you’re a Blue Jays fan (and the fact that you’re reading this blog suggests you are) you can be forgiven for living on a high so far this offseason.  With Alex Anthopoulos leading the way, the Jays have been one of the busiest teams in baseball, remaking their roster and becoming, at least on paper, a contender.

But there are 29 other teams in the majors that are trying to win the World Series too, and many of them have been very active as well.  So just in case you’ve spent the last several weeks lost in an AA-trade induced hangover, here is a look at some of the biggest trades and signings elsewhere in baseball, and what they mean to Toronto.

The Signings

Atlanta signs B.J. Upton from Tampa Bay (5-years, $75-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Beneficial.  Though he might not have lived up to his true potential with the Rays, removing a guy with 30-30 potential from the top of Tampa’s lineup can only help Toronto’s chances in the AL East.

Beyond: Unknown.  You never know what the Rays have up their sleeves.  While there may not be a readily apparent heir for Upton, you can rest assured that there soon will be.

Pittsburgh signs Russell Martin from New York (2-years, $17-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Beneficial.  Martin wasn’t lights out but still hit 39 HR for the Yanks over the past two seasons, and his departure leaves NYY with Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart as their catchers.  Ugh.

Beyond: Likely negative.  You know that the Yankees won’t keep a weak spot open for long.  Might we see a major push for a catcher in the years ahead?

Boston signs Shane Victorino from LA Dodgers (3-years, $39-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Slightly Beneficial.  Victorino is on the decline and having him start everyday might be a bonus for Toronto.

Beyond: Beneficial.  Three years of potentiall declining numbers for almost $40-million?  This might be even more beneficial if Victorino’s presence leads the Red Sox to trade the oft-injured (but vastly superior) Jacoby Ellsbury, as has been rumoured.

Boston signs Mike Napoli from Texas (3-years, $39-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Slightly negative.  His bat might play well in Fenway, giving the Red Sox some much needed pop.

Beyond: Neutral.  Whatever pop he might add is largely diminished by the $40-million contract, a bit excessive seeing as how Napoli has had only one above-average season in his career.  Boston may regret this one.

New York signs Kevin Youkilis from Chicago (1-year, $12-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Mostly negative.  An aging and declining veteran, he’ll likely do no worse than an aging and declining A-Rod would have, but might be inspired to stick it to his ex-team after they dumped him last year.  Any bounceback season in the AL East is trouble for Toronto.

Beyond: Likely none.

Detroit signs Torii Hunter from LA Angels (2-years, $26-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Positive.  Detroit will likely enter 2013 as heavy AL Central favourites again, meaning they aren’t competing against the Jays for a Wild Card spot.  However, Hunter’s ex-mates in Anaheim are, and despite his advanced age, this weakens the Angels.

Beyond: Likely negative. Only signed for two years, but if another Central team steps up, Detrot is a fierce Wild Card competitor.

LA Dodgers sign Zack Greinke from LA Angels (6-years, $147-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Hugely positive.  Texas and Anaheim pushed hard for the ace, but he is going just about as far away from the Jays as possible.

Beyond: Potentially negative.  Though Greinke won’t be an issue, the fact that two big clubs, rich with cash, missed out on him means that both are now eager to spend on the next big free agent in 2014.  Look out.

Washington signs Dan Haren from LA Angels (1-years, $13-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Beneficial.  2012 might have been an off year, but Haren has been dependable over the years, and he takes his 8-3 liftetime record against the Jays to the NL where he won’t be a factor any longer.

Beyond: Neutral.  Only a 1-year deal.

Arizona signs Brandon McCarthy from Oakland (2-years, $15.5-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Beneficial.  Solid starter provided veteran leadership for a young A’s staff.  He’ll be missed in 2013, a good thing for the Jays.

Beyond: Neutral.  Oakland has one of the best young staffs in the league, and McCarthy’s absence will likely be a non-issue in 2014 and beyond.

LA Angels sign Ryan Madson from Cincinnati (1-year, $6-million)

2013 Impact to Jays: Unknown.  The Angels had a terrible time with their bullpen at the beginning of the season, but will a closer who missed all of 2012 be able to fix that?  If so, the Angels could win more games.  If not, they’ll be left scrambling again.

Beyond: Likely negative.  If he succeeds, then the Angels have a closer, and have the inside track to re-sign him, bad news for the rest of the AL.  If he fails, they start over.

The Trades

Cincinnati gets Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald;

Cleveland gets Drew Stubbs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, and Bryan Shaw;

Arizona gets Didi Gregorius, Lars Anderson, and Tony Sipp

2013 Impact to Jays: Likely positive.  Drew Stubbs is a speedy player, but pales in comparison to Choo offensively (.610 OPS in ’12, compared to Choo’s .815).  That’s a good tradeoff for the Jays.  Cleveland improves its pitching staff, but will not likely be a Wild Card contender in 2013 so it doesn’t matter….yet.

Beyond: Negative.  Choo was likely gone either after or during the 2013 season anyways.  Trevor Bauer was ranked 9th on Baseball America’s top-100 prospects list for 2012, and is the 3rd overall pick from the 2011 draft.  He has the potential to be an elite, top of the rotation arm for a young Indians team that only figures to get better in the next several seasons.  With Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis, they could be contending as early as 2014 with Bauer.

Kansas City gets James Shields and Wade Davis;

Tampa Bay gets Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard

2013 Impact to Jays: Probably positive.  Shields and Davis will probably be better and have more of an impact in 2013 than Myers and the other prospects the Rays received.  Though Tampa has a deep rotation, losing the 200-plus quality innings that Shields provides has to make them a bit weaker.  KC might think of themselves as Wild Card contenders now, but are realistically a year out still.

Beyond: Negative.  Prospect lists can always be dubious, but there’s no doubt that it’s better to be on a top-100 list than not.  Three of the players picked up by the Rays were on Baseball America’s top-100 list for 2012: Myers (28th), Odorizzi (68th), and Montgomery (23rd).  Then Myers went out and won the Minor League Player of the Year award in 2012 and instantly became one of the (if not the) top prospects in the game.  Tampa might feel a slight hit in 2013 but will likely reap the rewards of this trade for years and years to come.

Philadelphia gets Ben Revere; Minnesota gets Vance Worley and Trevor May

2013 Impact to Jays: None.  Revere leaves the American League and Minnesota will be trying to avoid the AL Central basement.

Beyond: Somewhat negative.  Vance Worley isn’t an ace by any means, but he pitched well in Philly the past two seasons, and is only 25  years old.  His addition instantly improves the Twins rotation as they head back towards respectability.

Atlanta gets Jordan Walden; LA Angels get Tommy Hanson

2013 Impact to Jays: Slightly negative.  Walden had a rough start to 2012 and eventually spent some time in the minors.  Though he pitched well upon his return, Ryan Madson’s signing basically rendered him moot.  Hanson has been trending the wrong way since his ’09 rookie year, but he represents an upgrade over the departed Ervin Santana.

Beyond: Probably negative.  If Hanson regains his early career form, he will be a formidable addition to the Angels staff, which means the team will be tougher competition for the Jays in the future.

Philadelphia gets Michael Young; Texas gets Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla

2013 Impact to Jays: Negative.  Ron Washington is loyal to a fault, and despite Young’s poor .682 OPS in 2012, he played 156 games for the Rangers.  With Young now in Philly, he is guaranteed to be out of the Rangers lineup, opening up a spot for phenom Jurickson Profar and making the Rangers an even better team.

Beyond: Likely none.  Young is only signed through 2013 so he likely wasn’t coming back to Texas after next year anyways.  This just gives Profar a one year head start in his major league development.

As I write this, there is a relative lull in activity for the Blue Jays.

After a brutal 2012 season, came the excitment caused by Farrell-gate, then “The Trade”, the Melky signing, and the Gibbons hiring.

Now with the Winter Meetings kicking off, the lull might not last long.

In order to fill this short lull, I thought I’d squeeze my annual “Looking Back at My Predictions” column in. 

Sit back and get ready to laugh.  They are futile.

Not good in the AL.  I whiffed badly on Baltimore, Oakland, Chicago, and Cleveland.  But hey – I nailed the Jays finishing ahead of Boston!

Wow!  Completely nailed the NL Central, and hit three of the five playoff teams.  I’ll take that as a success.

Let’s pretend we didn’t see this table and move on shall we?

Miguel Cabrera as MVP, Buster Posey as Bounceback Player, and Josh Beckett as Disappointing Player all look good.  John Farrell as Manager of the Year?  Ugh.

So there you have it.  Another year of predictions comes and goes.  For those keeping track, last year I was correct on 10 of the 30 positions in the standings, and 3 of the 16 stat leaders, meaning believe it or not I am actually getting worse. 

What an idiot.