Wow.  That didn’t take long did it?

A sub-par first few weeks and a couple of really bad games is all it took for people to go overboard.  Panic mode has officially set in amongst the Blue Jay fanbase – only 18 games in!

“Fire Dwayne Murphy!” the fans are saying. “He’s the hitting coach and we can’t hit!”

“Send down Thames!  Call up Snider!  Trade Arencibia!  Bring up d’Arnaud!” they say.

“Bautista is washed up!  Two fluke years in a row sold us.  This is how he really is!” they say.

I’ve written several columns already preaching patience.  It’s early, I keep saying.  But it doesn’t seem to matter.

So instead of preaching to the choir again, I’ll try something different.  I wrote a column like this last year to try and distract fans from Toronto’s early struggles, so I thought I’d do it again.  Hopefully this really brings home just how early the season actually is. 

Calm down – here are 10 shocking statistics from early in 2012:

8.5 - Number of games back the LA Angels are of Texas right now – biggest deficit in the majors.  For a team that added C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols and was the pick of many to be the best team in the AL, they certainly look awful.  A 6-12 record has them dead last in the AL West.  The fact that they’re under .500 can be rectified in time, but an 8.5 game deficit?  That is a subsantial hill to climb.  One of the biggest reasons for the start is….

0 – Home runs by Albert Pujols.  The biggest signing of the offseason, and one of the greatest players in the history of the game is off to a dreadful start.  113 American League players have hit at least one HR, but not Albert.  And it’s not as if he’s hitting well in other categories to make up for it.  His .222 batting average is T-71st, his .601 OPS is 75th (behind Adam Lind!!!), and his 71 OPS+ is T-73rd…with Chone Figgins.  Albert will come around, but this is not the start the Angels were envisioning.

14 – Wins by the Washington Nationals.  We all knew the Nats were much improved this year, but not this much.  Their .778 winning percentage only trails Texas, and they have already opened up a 2.5 game lead on Atlanta in the NL East, and lead the Phillies by 5.5 already.  Why are they so good?  Well…..

1.71 – ERA of Washington’s starting rotation.  That number is crazy, and is 0.77 lower than the second place Cardinals.  Washington’s starters also lead baseball in hits allowed (71), HR allowed (3), walks (22), WHIP (0.84 (!)), and K/BB (4.68).  Crazy, crazy good numbers.

.420 – Batting average of Derek Jeter.  The 75-year old Yankee is off to one of the best starts of his career.  He leads the league in hits with 34, has recorded a base hit in 17 of 18 games this season (including 15 in a row), and has recorded 11 multi-hit games thus far.  There’s no way that can last, is there?

Speaking of no way that can last…

24.00 – K/BB ratio of Texas Rangers starter Colby Lewis.  That’s right: 24 strikeouts and only 1 walk.  Lewis pitched 26.2 IP over 4 starts, so it’s not like the sample size is tiny.  For a guy with a career K/BB rate of 2.21, including a 3.02 mark last year, it’s a number that is bound to fall substantially.  But still, pretty impressive.

29 – Strikeouts by Adam Dunn.  That Dunn leads baseball in strikeouts is not surprising.  He is a classic strikeout player who has lead the league in K’s three times before . What’s shocking is the sheer number of strikeouts he is racking up this year.  29 K’s in only 18 games has him on pace for 261 for the season, which wouldn’t only shatter the previous record – it would absolutely pulverize it.

Staying with the White Sox…

.952 – OPS for Alex “Who Gives a F*#k” Rios.  The former Jay is off to a terrific start, with a .362 average and 7 extra base hits.  No word yet on how many times he’s refused to give an autograph to a young kid…

7 - OPS+ of Miguel Olivo.  For those unfamiliar with the stat, OPS+ adjusts a player’s OPS to the park and the league in which he plays.  100 is the league average.  Anything over 150 is excellent, and anything less than 75 is poor.  Miguel Olivo’s OPS+ thus far in 2012 is 7.  SEVEN.  Olivo has been a decent hitter in his career so one would expect his .164 / .177 / .197 / .374 slash line to improve.  But for now, he is sitting on 7.  For reference purposes, if he somehow manages to keep that for the entire year, it woud be the second worst OPS+ ever, behind Bill Bergen’s 1909 mark of 1.  Horrendous!

3 – Number of Blue Jays who lead their position in fielding.  Using the Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average stat, Yunel Escobar leads all AL shortstops (and all players) at +8, Kelly Johnson leads all second basemen at +6, and Brett Lawrie leads all AL 3B at +5.  Throw in 31 double plays turned (which leads the league by a mile), and that shows just how good Toronto’s D has been.  Now if only the O could catch up…

Although Opening Day of the 2012 Major League Baseball season has technically already happened (they love Ichiro in Japan don’t they?) for most of us Opening Day is just around the corner.  Fresh off the 2011 World Series, the Pujols-less St. Louis Cardinals face the brand new Miami Marlins in brand new Marlins Park tomorrow night at 7 PM, and with that the 2012 season will be off and running.

Over the past week and a half, 500 Level Fan has posted a preview of each of MLB’s six divisions.  Now, with Opening Day right upon us, it’s time to up the ante.  No more “previewing”.  It’s now time to “predict”.  

As always, my predictions should not be wagered upon by anybody, because they will likely all be wrong. 

Like last year, the 500 Level Fan predictions column will split over two days.  Today I’m going to cover MLB predictions, including final standings, playoff results, award winners, and some miscellaneous categories.  Tomorrow I’ll put my focus on the Blue Jays, with some individual and team predictions. 

So sit back, read on, try not to laugh, and get ready to comment. 

American League Predictions

East

1. Tampa Bay

2. New York

3. Toronto

4. Boston

5. Baltimore

Thoughts: A full year of Matt Moore, bringing back a 1B with power (Carlos Pena), and a bounce back year from Evan Longoria (no way he hits in the .240′s again) make Tampa the favourite.  Nervous about Farnsworth at closer, but he proved he could handle it last year…..The Yankees are getting older, and Curtis Granderson is a huge regression candidate.  I don’t think Pineda will adjust well to the AL East either…..Why can’t Toronto finish ahead of Boston?  They have the talent, just need the pitching to come together…..Speaking of pitching, the Red Sox only seem to have three starters, and their closer might need thumb surgery.  Plus, Carl Crawford proved in 2011 that he stinks…..Baltimore might be finally moving in the right direction, but for now they are still terrible.  They might lose 100 games.

Central

1. Detroit

2. Cleveland

3. Kansas City

4. Minnesota

5. Chicago

Thoughts: Detroit dominated this division last year, and now add Prince Fielder.  But moving Cabrera to third is dangerous, and there is a very real chance that Verlander and Avila regress a bit.  They still win but it might be closer than you think…..Cleveland surprised many last year but bring a team full of question marks into 2012.  Can they hit?  Will Ubaldo bounce back?  Can Masterson repeat 2011?  I think they push the Tigers, for a few months anyways…..Kansas City is a year away, but have all kinds of good pieces in place to challenge for a .500 finish…..Mauer and Morneau both bounce back a bit, but not enough for Minny to challenge for the playoffs…..Dunn, Rios, and Beckham can’t possibly get worse, so there’s that. 

West

1. Texas

2. Anaheim

3. Seattle

4. Oakland

Thoughts: The Rangers add two new starters (Yu Darvish and 2011 closer Neftali Feliz) and a new closer (Joe Nathan), but how deeply will falling one strike short of the championship last year impact them?  I say they still have enough to hold off the Angels…..The story of the winter, LA has quite possibly the best rotation in the majors, and Albert Pujols.  But they still have Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu…..Seattle can’t possibly have a worse offense than last year can they?  With full seasons from Ackley, Montero, Carp (though he’s on the DL), and Smoak, plus a bounce back year from Ichiro, I say no…..Oakland has no chance, but with Cespedes and (maybe) Manny, they’ll at least be fun to watch on SportsCentre.  

Wildcards

Yankees and Angels – the Jays could sneak in here, but I think they are one year away.

Stat Leaders

HR – Jose Bautista, TOR – he might eclipse 50 again

RBI – Miguel Cabrera, DET

Average – Albert Pujols, LAA

SB – Brett Gardner, NYY

Wins – CC Sabathia, NYY

ERA – Dan Haren, LAA

K – Brandon Morrow, TOR

Sv – Joe Nathan, TEX

Awards & Miscellany

MVP – Miguel Cabrera, DET

Cy Young – Dan Haren, LAA

Rookie – Matt Moore, TB

Manager – John Farrell, TOR

Bounceback Player – Colby Rasmus, TOR

Most Disappointing Player – Josh Beckett, BOS

First Major Player Traded – Nick Markakis, BAL

National League Predictions

East

1. Philadelphia

2. Miami

3. Atlanta

4. Washington

5. N.Y. Mets

Thoughts: Despite injury problems with Howard and Utley, Philadelphia – though aging – is still the premier team in the division . Their 1-3 starters are second to none…..Expect big years from Stanton, Ramirez, and Reyes, and a complete disaster from Carlos Zambrano.  Still good enough for second…..Atlanta has great pitching but there is suddenly some injury concern with the rotation.  Heyward must bounce back…..Washington will be fun, but 2013 is their year…..Now that the off-field distractions appear to be over, maybe the Mets will surprise us.  Probably not though.

Central

1. Cincinnati

2. St. Louis

3. Milwaukee

4. Pittsburgh

5. Chicago

6. Houston

Thoughts: Extending Votto calms fears of his imminent departure and gets the focus back on the field.  Latos gives them a quality top of the rotation starter, and Aroldis Chapman gives them the biggest X-factor in the division, enough to take them to the top…..Nothing offsets the loss of Albert Pujols, but adding Beltran to Berkman and Holliday, and bringing Wainwright back from Tommy John will keep the team competitive…..Adding Aramis Ramirez does not make up for a suddenly fragile Marcum, the loss of Fielder, and a full season of Braun drama…..Is this the year that Pittsburgh finally finishes .500?  500 Level Fan says………YES!!!!…..When the biggest name on your team is your GM, you know you’re in trouble.  Sorry Cubbies…..Houston will be historically awful.  I almost feel bad for them.

West

1. San Francisco

2. Arizona

3. Colorado

4. Los Angeles

5. San Diego

Thoughts: I’m assuming the Giants finally smarten up and give at-bats to Brandon Belt. That plus the return of Posey and a lights-out pitching staff puts San Fran back in the playoffs…..Arizona played a bit over their heads last year, but have improved the rotation and still have MVP candidate Justin Upton.  It will be close…..Colorado will be fun to watch if only for 49-year old Jamie Moyer making the starting rotation.  A great story…..New ownership will not bring on-field success, not even with Kemp and Kershaw – at least not this year…..San Diego has some exciting pieces.  Interested to see how many bombs Yonder Alonso hits in Petco Park.  

Wildcards

Miami and St. Louis

Stat Leaders

HR – Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

RBI – Joey Votto, CIN

Average – Joey Votto, CIN

SB – Michael Bourn, ATL

Wins – Roy Halladay, PHI

ERA – Cole Hamels, PHI

K – Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Sv – Brian Wilson, SF

Awards

MVP - Joey Votto, CIN

Cy Young – Roy Halladay, PHI

Rookie – Yonder Alonso, SD

Manager – Charlie Manuel, PHI

Bounceback Player – Buster Posey, SF

Most Disappointing Player – Lance Berkman, STL

First Major Player Traded – David Wright, NYM

Playoffs 

American League

Wildcard Round – Angels over Yankees

ALDS – Rays over Angels, Rangers over Tigers

ALCS – Rangers over Rays

National League

Wild Card Round – Cardinals over Marlins

NLDS – Phillies over Cardinals, Giants over Reds

NLCS – Phillies over Giants

World Series

I picked Philadelphia last year and got burned.  This year they look to be a much weaker team loaded with injury problems.  Yet, for some reason (probably sentimentality for Halladay) I feel like the rotation will refuse to lose in 2012.  Philadlephia wins the World Series, handing the Rangers their third straight series loss.

It’s been the best division in baseball for years.  It is home to the biggest spending teams in the game, and one of the most well run teams as well.  It is also home to one of baseball’s biggest sleeping giants, our beloved Blue Jays.  Oh, and Baltimore plays here too.

Today 500 Level Fan concludes the 2012 Divisional preview series with a look at the big, bad AL East.

Defending Champion

New York Yankees

Past Five Champions

2011 – New York

2010 – Tampa Bay

2009 – New York

2008 – Tampa Bay

2007 – Boston

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 97.8

Best Player

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

You can call me a biased homer, you can point out other superstars that play here, but for my money Jose Bautista is the best player in the AL East.  He lead the league in HR (43), Walks (132), Slugging (.608), OPS (1.056), OPS+ (181), Intentional Walks (24), and WAR (8.1).  He went from a one-dimensional home run hitter in 2010, to an all around threat in 2011, raising his batting average 42 points, and his OBP 69 points.  He is a smart base runner, plays two positiions well, and is a true clubhouse leader.  He is poised to finally lead Toronto back to the postseason.  

Honourable Mention: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox; Robinson Cano, Yankees

Best Pitcher

CC Sabathia, Yankees

How can it be anybody else?  While other pitchers in the division have been dominant for stretches (Beckett, Buchholz, Price, Shields, Romero), nobody can match the consistency of Sabathia.  In 2011 he went 19-8 with a 3.00 ERA and an 8.7 K/9 ratio.  Since joining New York, the lefty has gone an incredible 59-23, 624 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9, all while pitching in a hitters park in baseball’s toughest division.  He is good, and at 31 years of age, he likely has many, many years left.

Honourable Mention: David Price, Rays; Jon Lester, Red Sox

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Is This the Year for Toronto?

1993.  19 years ago.  A lot has happened in 19 years, but there is one thing that hasn’t – a Blue Jays playoff game.  The team has been close a few times, but has always fallen short of the postseason.  Despite having great players (Delgado, Halladay, Clemens, etc.) the Jays have not been able to get over the hump.  This year could be different.  Toronto has a stocked minor league system.  They have young, talented players at every position.  They have a rebuilt bullpen.  And, for the first time, there is an extra Wild Card spot available.  The task is still daunting, what with Tampa, Boston, and New York still ahead of them, but for the first time in many years, the Jays can see paydirt.  2012 could be the year they finally cross that playoff threshold.   

2. Boston’s Recovery

The last time we saw Boston on the field, they were concluding an incredible September collapse.  On the morning of September 1st, Boston was in 1st place in the AL East, 1.5 games up on the Yankees, and 9 up on Tampa.  On the morning of September 28th, they were 7 back of New York, and tied with Tampa.  Of course, they would go on to blow a 9th inning lead against Baltimore and be eliminated.  And that was just the beginning.  Fried chicken, beer drinking in the clubhouse, off-field power struggles…the Red Sox were a team out of control.  Now in 2012, there is a new manager, a new GM, and a whole lot of unanswered questions.  What will happen this year is anybody’s guess.

3. The Aging Empire

By the All Star break this summer, Derek Jeter will be 38.  Alex Rodriguez will be weeks away from his 37th birthday.  Mark Teixeira will be 32 (but he’s been playing like he’s 42).  Mariano Rivera will be 42.  In other words, several key members of the defending AL East champs are old.  Yes they have Cano, Granderson, and Gardner in their prime years, and some key pitchers who are young (Pineda, Nova, Robertson), but will the advanced age of the rest of the team finally catch up to the Yankees and keep them out of October?

Interesting Stat

The Baltimore Orioles have not had a winning record since 1997.  The biggest reason why?  Starting pitching.  The Oriole starters have been bad.  Very bad.  Since 2005, Baltimore starters have posted five of the eleven worst starting pitching ERA’s in the American League.  In 2011, the Orioles starters posted a ghastly 5.31 ERA.  The second worst staring pitching ERA last year belonged to Minnesota, over a third of a run lower at 4.96.  The rest of the starting pitching stats are just as bad.  Wins: tied for last with 46.  Losses: second last with 72.  Quality Starts: dead last, by a mile, with 60.  IP per start: dead last with 5.4.  In all, 12 different pitchers started at least one game for Baltimore last season, and the very best ERA posted by any of them belonged to Jeremy Guthrie at 4.37 – and he now plays for the Rockies.  It’s obvious to see what needs to change in Baltimore.

Who Should Win

New York. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

On paper, it looks like the least competitive division in baseball.  After all you have the defending champions, who happen to have the defending AL MVP and Cy Young winner AND added a huge slugger in the offseason, going against a team that played over its head last year (Cleveland), a team that looks to be at least a year away (Kansas City), a team in complete turmoil (Chicago), and a team that almost lost 100 games last year (Minnesota).  It’s Detroit’s division to lose.

But, as they say, that’s why you play the games.

Today we take a look at the AL Central.

Defending Champion

Detroit Tigers

Past Five Champions

2011 – Detroit

2010 – Minnesota

2009 – Minnesota

2008 – Chicago

2007 – Cleveland

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 92.4

Best Player

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Yes he will be changing positions (and hasn’t looked great at it thus far, considering the ol’ “ball off the face” trick), but there’s no denying that Cabrera is the beast of the Central.  For two straight years he has posted a WAR of 7.0 or better.  For five straight years he has hit 30+ HR and driven in 100+ runs.  In all four years that he has been a member of the Tigers he has finished in the top-15 of AL MVP voting.  Now that he is teaming with Prince Fielder?  Look out…  

Honourable Mention: Prince Fielder, Tigers; Joe Mauer, Twins

Best Pitcher

Justin Verlander, Tigers

Verlander put together a season for the ages in 2011, going 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, 250 strikeouts, a 0.92 WHIP, and a no-hitter.  He won both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards, the first pitcher to win both since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.  Though he is ripe for some regression this season, there’s no denying that he is the best pitcher in this division.  With an even better lineup behind him, could we be looking at a 30-win candidate?

Honourable Mention: Doug Fister, Tigers; Justin Masterson, Indians

Three Storylines For 2012

1. What Can Verlander Do For an Encore?

As mentioned, Verlander dominated in 2011.  This season, he is playing on what might be a stronger Tiger team, with the addition of Fielder, and in one of baseball’s weakest divisions.  All signs point to another MVP quality year?  Well, not so fast.  The big issue is this: Verlander threw 251 innings last year, then added another 20.1 in the playoffs.  He threw 3,941 regular season pitches, an average of 116 per start.  Those are crazy numbers.  Will his arm break down?  

2. Fielder and Cabrera

What do you get when you put Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the same lineup?  Most likely a ton of runs and a huge power barrage.  What do you get when you put Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the same infield?  Most likely a lot of trouble.  Never, at least as far back as I can remember, will infield defense come under as much scrutiny as it will with Detroit.  A few extra groundballs that get through and a few additional errors could be result in a few additional losses.  That might bring the Tigers back to the pack.

3. Return of the Twins

The Minnesota Twins were a perennial contender until imploding into a 99-loss team in ’11.  Injuries derailed the team right from the start, and though a variety of players went down, none were more important than the MVP duo of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.  The two combined to miss 173 games, and only hit a combined 7 HR, a far cry from their former dominant selves.  Minnesota said goodbye to longtime Twins Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan in the offseason, meaning good health, and healthy production, by Mauer and Morneau are essential for a Minny turnaround.

Interesting Stat

It’s important to take defensive metrics with a grain of salt – there really isn’t a perfect way to measure how good a player is in the field.  But…the Tigers could be in trouble.  Baseball Reference calculates a statistic called Rtot (Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average) which demonstrates the number of runs  a player was worth defensively.  Average is zero.  A negative number means the player actually cost his team runs with the way he played defensively.  According to Rtot, in 2011 Prince Fielder was the 3rd worst defensive 1B in all of baseball (with at least 200 innings played at the position) at -7.  Only two players were worse: Eric Hosmer of KC (-10), and Miguel Cabrera, his new teammate (-8).  Cabrera will shift to 3B in 2012, a much more difficult position, which intuitively will lead to a much worse Rtot.  What’s worse, is that incumbent 2B Ryan Raburn was the 7th worst fielding second baseman in all of baseball at -5.  Only SS Jhonny Peralta can claim to be good defensively.  Things could get ugly in Detroit’s infield…

Who Should Win

Detroit. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

For such a small division, a lot of things happened to the AL West over the winter.  The Angels went crazy and spent a ridiculous amount of money.  The Rangers brought in a Japanese phenom.  The A’s got rid of most of their useful players, then shocked the baseball world by breaking the bank for a Cuban could-be star.  And the Mariners traded one of baseball’s hottest commodities (a young power pitcher) for the kind of slugger they have sorely lacked for the last several years.  Crazy stuff.

We continue our divisional previews with a look at the AL West.

Defending Champion

Texas Rangers

Past Five Champions

2011 – Texas

2010 – Texas

2009 – LA Angels

2008 – LA Angels

2007 – LA Angels

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 95.4

Best Player

Albert Pujols, Angels

He hasn’t even played a single inning in the division, yet he’s already its best player.  That’s what happens when your career average season is .328 / .420 / .617 / 1.037, 40 HR, 121 RBI, and you have finished in the top-10 in MVP voting EVERY season of your career.  Yeah, Pujols is pretty good, and the Angels shocked everybody by signing him in the winter.  Though they paid an outrageous amount of money to get him, and his contract might be a burden a few years down the road, for now he is still the same player, set to bring a World Series title to the Angels.  

Honourable Mention: Ian Kinsler, Rangers; Adrian Beltre, Rangers

Best Pitcher

Felix Hernandez, Mariners

They don’t call him “King” for nothing.  In his past three seasons, Hernandez has put up an ERA of 2.73, a WHIP of 1.14, 671 strikeouts, a K/9 ratio of 8.4 and a K/BB ratio of 3.23.  He’s also won a Cy Young award.  But even more impressive is the fact that he has managed to win games.  He has gone 46-31 over those seasons, and incredibly he went 27-26 over the past two years, despite playing for a Seattle team that put up the least amount runs scored in baseball.  Despite having a plethora of impressive arms in the division, nobody can touch Felix.

Honourable Mention: Jered Weaver, Angels; Dan Haren, Angels

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Big Spending Angels

LA was never really close to making the playoffs last year, finishing 10 games back of division rivals Texas.  That didn’t sit well with owner Arte Moreno.  Beginning in late August of 2011, he opened up his wallet to try and change that.  Big time.  First, the Angels locked up ace Jered Weaver with a 5-year $85-million contract.  Then they really broke the bank, signing Pujols to a 10-year $240-million deal, and starter C.J. Wilson to a 5-year $77.5-million deal.  With the Angels already paying big money to Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter, winning is mandatory in order to net a decent return on those investments.  

2. Darvish Arrives

After putting up video game-type numbers in his years in Japan, pitching sensation Yu Darvish will make his much anticipated crossover to the majors in 2012 with the Texas Rangers.  Texas paid an enormous sum for Darvish ($111.7-milion including posting fee), and the signing comes with an incredible amount of risk.  Though he has thrown the ball well thus far in the spring, how will he handle the long grind of a major league baseball season, with lots of travel, and increased pressure, all well playing in the brutal Texas summer heat?  The division title mighit depend on it.

3. Yoenis Cespedes

When Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes declared his desire to play in the major leagues by releasing a crazy video of his skills, he was linked to almost every team in baseball.  No link seemed stronger than with the Marlins, which made sense considering Miami’s Cuban culture.  But somehow, Cespedes ended up in the least likeliest of places – Oakland.  After the A’s jettisoned their closer, two of their top young pitchers, and most of their offense from 2011, it looked to be a long, long year.  But the signing of Cespedes at least adds some intrigue to the Athletics, and maybe, just maybe, having him play in one of the least pressure-packed markets in baseball might help YC live up to his enormous hype.

Interesting Stat

The Seattle Mariners offense in 2011 was incredibly bad.  They scored a total of 556 runs – the only team in the AL to not eclipse the 600 run mark.  That equates to 3.43 runs scored per game.  It doesn’t matter how good your pitching staff is – you can’t win with that level of production.  One of the main reasons why Seattle was so bad was lack of power.  The Mariners were the only team in the AL that did not produce a 20-HR hitter.  Every other team had at least one player who slugged 20 bombs.  Seattle’s top power threat was C Miguel Olivo who hit 19.  A lot of pressure will be on the shoulders of youngsters Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Mike Carp, and Jesus Montero to make sure that dubious stat doesn’t happen again.

Who Should Win

Texas. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

Last year it was home to the best team in baseball, the 102-win Phillies.  This year it might be home to a great title race, with the potential of four very good teams battling it out for the playoffs.  And it’s also home to the Mets.

We continue our divisional previews with a look at the NL East.

Defending Champion

Philadelphia Phillies

Past Five Champions

2011 – Philadelphia

2010 – Philadelphia

2009 – Philadelphia

2008 – Philadelphia

2007 – Philadelphia

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 94.6

Best Player

Jose Reyes, Marlins

Naming the best player in this division would have been very difficult a few years ago (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Werth, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, David Wright) and it might be very difficult a few years from now (Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper, Mike “Giancarlo” Stanton).  But there doesn’t seem to be a lot of elite players in 2012 playing in the NL East.  Jose Reyes is injury prone, but he is dynamic, which is why I give him the nod.  He won the NL batting title last year, stole 39 bases, and finished 11th in MVP voting.  This year he suits up for the Marlins in one of baseball’s highest profile free agent signings, and has the chance to have a gigantic season….if he stays healthy.  

Honourable Mention: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins; Mike “Giancarlo” Stanton, Marlins

Best Pitcher

Roy Halladay, Phillies

Did you expect anybody else, especially on a Blue Jays blog?  Even at 34 years of age, Halladay remains a stud.  All he did in 2011 was lead the league in complete games (8), ERA+ (164), BB/9 (1.3), and K/BB (6.29).  He also went 19-6 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an All Star appearance, and finished second in Cy Young voting and 9th in NL MVP voting.  He is showing no signs of slowing down, which is important considering the fragile offense the Phillies will be fielding in 2012.

Honourable Mention: Cliff Lee, Phillies; Cole Hamels, Phillies

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Broken Phillies

The Phillies still have the best rotation in all of baseball, with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, and Joe Blanton.  With newly signed Jonathan Papelbon, they should boast a strong bullpen.  They might need top performances from all of them to make it a “six-peat”.  Ryan Howard will miss at least the first month with the torn Achilles he suffered in the NLDS last year.  Now comes news that Chase Utley will be out for an unknown length of time due to knee trouble.  Add to that the fact that Jimmy Rollins has missed 94 games over the past two seasons, and the back-up 1B might be 41-year old Jim Thome and the Phillies could be in trouble when it comes to scoring runs. 

2. Marlin Mania

Talk about an overhaul – a lot will be new in Florida this year.  There is a new name (the “Miami” Marlins), new uniforms, a new stadium, a new 3B (Hanley Ramirez shifts from SS), a new SS (Jose Reyes), a new closer (Heath Bell), new veteran starters (Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano), and a new manager (Ozzie Guillen).  All of that will lead to something else new in Miami this year – hope.  It’s been a while since the Marlins have had this much hype surrounding them, and even longer since the hype was of the positive variety.  With Mike “Giancarlo” Stanton poised to breakout, things could end happily in Florida.

3. Washington’s Kids

The Nationals are a young and dynamic team, poised to break through in the NL East.  They have a number of solid players, including Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Gio Gonzalez, Wilson Ramos, and Michael Morse.  They might make some noise this year.  However, 2013 looks to be when they will launch to serious contenders because their two greatest talents will not be with them the entire 2012 campaign.  Rooke phenom Stephen Strasburg will be limited by an innings cap as he makes his comeback from Tommy John surgery.  Their other sensation, Bryce Harper, will start the year in the minors.  But when (not if) Harper gets the call this season, the Nationals will be the team to watch in the NL.

Interesting Stat

According to Baseball Reference’s WAR stat, a player with a WAR of 2.0 – 4.9 is considered a starter-quality player.  Anything less than 2.0 is considered a reserve-level player.  Last season, 60 offensive players had a WAR of 2.0 or greater in the National League.  Only one team in the upcoming season will not have ANY of them on its roster – the New York Mets.  Only Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran eclipsed the 2.0 mark in 2011, and both are now gone.  The Mets lone player with a 2.0+ WAR? Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.  New York is going to need bounce back seasons from David Wright and Jason Bay, and healthy ones from Ike Davis and Johan Santana to stand any kind of chance.

Who Should Win

Philadelphia. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

It’s the biggest division in baseball – the only one with six teams – and also one that is loaded with change.  Two of the biggest sluggers in the game left over the winter, the defending MVP became embroiled in a steroid controversy, and one of the teams (Houston) is playing its last season before shifting divisions and leagues.

Let’s continue the 500 Level Fan Divisional previews with a look at the NL Central.

Defending Champion

Milwaukee Brewers

Past Five Champions

2011 – Milwaukee

2010 – Cincinnati

2009 – St. Louis

2008 – Chicago

2007 – Chicago

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 92

Best Player

Joey Votto, Reds

This might seem shocking at first glance: how can the best player in the division NOT be the man who won the NL MVP award in 2011?  The answer is simply when that player has a cloud of suspicion and doubt hanging around him.  Yes Ryan Braun had an outstanding season, but so did Votto – and Votto is definitely clean.  He lead the league in doubles, walks, and OBP, had a .947 OPS along with 29 HR and 103 RBI.  His 6.5 bWAR was third best in the NL, and he also won a Gold Glove award.  With the Reds much improved heading into this season, Votto might be even better.  

Honourable Mention: Ryan Braun, Brewers; Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Best Pitcher

Zack Greinke, Brewers

On the surface it didn’t appear that Greinke had a great season in 2011.  After all, his 3.83 ERA was 34th best in the NL (and worse than the league average) and he only managed 171.2 IP due to an injury at the start of the year.  However, he was a much better pitcher than those numbers showed.  His 1.200 WHIP ranked 14th, and he lead the league in K/9 with 10.5.  He even impressed old school stat lovers with a 16-6 record.  With a full season in the NL already in the books and with full health, Greinke could dominate in 2012.

Honourable Mention: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Matt Garza, Cubs

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Ryan Braun

He won the 2011 NL MVP.  He lead the league in SLG and OPS, and he lead his team to the playoffs.  But an offseason steroid scandal has cast doubt over Braun. Yes he was able to win his appeal and overturn the mandatory 50-game suspension, but he didn’t really clear his name in the eyes of the fans.  For the first time in his career he is likely to be heavily booed wherever he goes.  Plus, his partner in crime Prince Fielder bolted for Detroit.  How will Braun handle what will surely be a tumultuous 2012?

2. An Era of Change in St. Louis

Does anybody remember that the Cardinals are the defending World Series Champs?  With all the change that engulfed this team in the offseason you’d be forgiven for forgetting that fact.  For the first time since 2000 St. Louis will open a baseball season without Albert Pujols on the roster.  For the first time since 1995 St. Louis will open a baseball season without Tony La Russa as manager and Dave Duncan as pitching coach.  Adam Wainwright is back from Tommy John surgery, but Chris Carpenter is struggling this spring.  Can Mike Matheny do the unthinkable and lead a Pujols-less team to the playoffs?

3. How Bad Will Houston Be?

Carlos Lee will play first base.  Other than that, can you name a member of the Astros?  According to their depth chart, the likely starting outfield consists of J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer, and Brian Bogusevic.  Their third starter, J.A. Happ, went 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA last season.  There are a couple of bright spots (Jose Altuve is supposed to be good at 2B), but the main goal for the Astros will be to not lose over 110 games.

Interesting Stat

A lot is made of the Cubs 100+ year World Series drought, but did you know that the rest of the NL Central is brutal as well?  Take out the Cardinals, who have a lot of success, and what are you left with?  A lot of empty years.  The Cubs last won in 1908.  The Reds last won in 1990.  Pittsburgh was way back in 1979.  Milwaukee last won in 1957 when they were the Milwaukee Braves.  And the poor Houston Astros have never won the World Series.  I don’t think that is going to change this year…

Who Should Win

Cincinnati. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

It’s that time of year again, time for the 500 Level Fan to start embarrassing himself with futile, sad, and mind-blowingly awful predictions.  This year I thought I’d shake things up a bit, and do a preview of each of baseball’s six divisions first, ultimately leading up to my prediction columns.  These preview posts should be seen as a division primer, so we can get to know the best players and teams, along with some interesting storylines, in each.  These won’t have my actual predicted order of finish – just a quick snapshot.

We’ll begin today with the NL West.

Defending Champion

Arizona Diamondbacks

Past Five Champions

2011 – Arizona

2010 – San Francisco

2009 – Los Angeles

2008 – Los Angeles

2007 – Arizona

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 91

Best Player

Matt Kemp, Dodgers

Kemp put up a 10.0 bWAR last year and (at least in my opinion) should have won the NL MVP award.  He fell one HR shy of a 40/40 season, put up a .986 OPS and a tremendously high 171 OPS+.  He also plays a solid CF as shown by advanced metrics (a +8 Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average) and conventional ones (winner of a 2011 Gold Glove).  He is such a dynamic player that there has even been whispers of him becoming baseball’s first ever 50/50 player in 2012. 

Honourable Mention: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; Justin Upton, Diamondbacks

Best Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

You know it would take a truly special season to knock Roy Halladay off the Cy Young perch, and that is exactly what Kershaw produced last year.  He won the pitching triple crown with 21 wins, 248 strikeouts, and a 2.28 ERA, and just for kicks also lead the league in WHIP at 0.977.  The stellar season won him his first Cy Young, his first Gold Glove, and even a top-15 finish in NL MVP voting.  Expect more of the same in 2012.

Honourable Mention: Tim Lincecum, Giants; Matt Cain, Giants

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Can Arizona Repeat?

The D-Backs came out of nowhere last year to win the division, surprising most of baseball.  In 2012 they become the hunted, a team with a target on their back – always a more difficult task.  But Arizona returns virtually the exact same team as last year, lead by MVP candidate Justin Upton, ace Ian Kennedy, and former Blue Jays Aaron Hill and John McDonald.  A trade to bring in former Oakland A Trevor Cahill will strengthen the rotation, and full seasons by rookie slugger Paul Goldschmidt and free agent import Jason Kubel will help the offense.  They look to be for real.

2. San Francisco and the Non-Existent Offense

Entering 2011 the Giants were defending World Series Champions, had one of the greatest pitching staffs in the game, and were only concerned about their offense.  Except for the champion part, the same still rings true.  San Fran was horrendous last year, scoring only 570 runs – 124 below the league average.  Only Seattle was worse in all of baseball.  Losing Buster Posey for most of the season hurt, but so did playing a bunch of old, over-the-hill players instead of stud rookie Brandon Belt.  With Posey back, they should be better.  Key word = should…

3. Jamie Moyer – Ageless Wonder

Moyer is 49 years old. He made his major league debut in 1986.  After missing all of 2011, he is back with the Rockies and looking to make the rotation.  As of right now, he is still on the team.  If he makes it, Colorado will be very fun to watch.

Interesting Stat

Last year, 29 players in MLB finished with a bWAR of -1.0 or worse.  Five of them ended the season with the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies cleaned themselves up in the offseason by getting rid of four of them: Ty Wigginton (-1.1, Phillies), Ryan Spilborghs (-1.8, Indians), Ian Stewart (-1.2, Cubs), and Kevin Kouzmanoff (-1.0, Royals).  Only rookie Charlie Blackmon (-1.3) remains, but he is targeted for the minors.  Does that make Colorado five wins better automatically?

Who Should Win

Arizona. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column.

I was recently contacted by Cleveland Indian fan and blog writer Matt Van Wormer, who asked me to be a part of a series of posts he was writing this offseason.  The main theme of his series is this: ask a blog writer from each major league team a series of questions about the team they cover.  I thought it was a great idea, and agreed to participate.  Below are the questions he posed to me, with my answers.  You can also read our interview here, and catch the rest of the series on his blog didthetribewinlastnight.com. 

In addition, I asked him several questions about the Indians, so for any of my readers who are closet Indian fans (and there should be a bunch of you considering the love that I know abounds for Major League), enjoy!

Questions about the Blue Jays:

Question 1 – 2011 saw the Toronto Blue Jays score a ton of runs (6th most in the Majors).  Unfortunately, they also gave up a ton of runs (again, 6th most in the Majors).  Is this area of concern caused by defensive position players, pitching or a combination of the two?

The main problem for the Jays in 2011 was pitching as injuries and inconsistency plagued both the starting rotation and the bullpen.  Twelve different pitchers made at least one start for the team last year, never a good situation.  Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, and Brandon Morrow all missed some time with injury, and young starters like Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek badly disappointed and were forced to the minors.  The bullpen was a disaster for much of the year as well.  But it wasn’t all bad news, as Ricky Romero really developed into a staff ace, and 21-year old Henderson Alvarez impressed in his ten starts.  If Drabek, Morrow, and Cecil can ever figure it out, the runs against number should drop substantially.

Question 2 – Jose Bautista is clearly the most important part of the Blue Jays lineup as he led the team in every major offensive category in 2011.  How much longer can he carry the load for the Toronto lineup?

Hopefully for several more years!  He just turned 31, so he is still considered to be in his prime, and I can see him keeping his production up for at least the next couple of years.  Last year he hit 43 home runs with a 1.056 OPS with virtually no lineup protection for much of the year.  Seriously, the Jays had Corey Patterson, Aaron Hill, Rajai Davis, and Juan Rivera hitting around Bautista for a good chunk of the season.  But if Adam Lind can return to 100% health next year (he battled a bad back for much of the season), J.P. Arencibia continues to develop offensively, Brett Lawrie emerges as a threat, and Edwin Encarnacion plays the whole year the way he did the last half of last season, then Bautista should have plenty of protection.  If he has protection, he doesn’t have to carry the load for much longer…

Question 3 – Toronto is clearly in need of an every day closer as the leader for the team had just 17 in 2011.  Who do you see, or want, the Blue Jays to go after to man the back end of the bullpen?

Honestly?  Nobody.  I know that having a good closer is important – there is nothing worse than blowing a game in the ninth.  The Jays blew 25 saves last year, so we know all about that sucker punch feeling.  But I just don’t think a big-name closer is worth the money.  Jonathan Papelbon got $50-million from the Phillies to pitch one inning every three days – insane!  A week or so ago I wrote about how Ryan Madson would look good in a Jays uniform.  He’s young, talented, and had a great 2011 season.  But if he’s going to cost higher than $5-million a year (which he definitely is) then I would vote no.  Closer is such a volatile position with such dramatic yearly change that it’s not worth having an expensive, multi-year guy (unless you can sign a non-human like Mariano Rivera).  The Jays have several in-house options that are worth looking at, like Dustin McGowan, Casey Janssen, or Joel Carreno.  I say keep the money and use one of them.

Question 4 – As John Farrell enters his second season at the helm for the Jays, what moves do you see him making as a manager, to get this team moving in the right direction?

I’m glad that Farrell is back for a second season, after a lot of October talk of both Boston and the Cubs wanting him for their managerial openings.  One move I do see him making is maybe backing off the “Farrell Ball” concept just a bit.  Last year he vowed to make Toronto a more exciting and unpredictable team by being extremely aggressive on the base paths, with hit-and-runs, steals, and sac bunts.  The problem is that the Jays ran into a lot of outs by being a bit too aggressive.  Manufacturing runs may be a good idea, but when you have the home run power of Bautista, Lind, Arencibia, Rasmus, Lawrie, and Encarnacion in your lineup, there are smarter – and less dangerous – ways to score.

Question 5 – With a tough division comes the tough task of trying to overcome the teams that are ahead of you.  Where do you see the Jays finishing the 2012 season?

Very hard to say.  The easy answer is to say fourth place – you can’t catch the big money teams of Boston and New York, and Tampa Bay is too talented and well-run to fade away (Baltimore is still several years away from being taken seriously).  But, and granted it’s a big but, if Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek can re-emerge as ace-type starters, Travis Snider bounces back and regains confidence, Lawrie and Bautista continue to shine, and GM Alex Anthopoulos makes that one shrewd move that he is becoming famous for (i.e: signing a DH, or making a shocking trade for Joey Votto) then who knows.  The Wild Card is a distinct possibility.

Questions about the Indians:

Question 1 – Manny Acta lead a Cleveland team widely expected to finish last (or close to last) to a 2nd place finish in the division.  Were you surprised that he received only 16 points in AL Manager of the Year voting?

When the voting came out and I heard that the most Acta got was a few second place votes it was shocking to me.  The injuries and slow starts from key players that the Tribe overcame to stay in the thick of the race until September was amazing and it was Acta who made it happen.  He got guys to buy into his system and they were playing the game the right way and it was working.  To get so many young guys on the same page was worthy of the award itself.  Manny Acta got robbed.

Question 2 – The Indians made a bold move at the trade deadline sending several prospects to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.  Do you think this was a good trade or one that Cleveland will regret in the future?

So far, I like the deal.  It showed the Tribe faithful that the Dolan’s are somewhat committed to winning right now and are finally willing to open up the wallet a little bit to make it happen.  At first, I didn’t like that we gave up, what I viewed as a LOT of talent.  But they are prospects for a reason.  You don’t know what you’re going to get from those young guys for a few years.  To really evaulate this trade, we’re going to have to see some results from Pomeranz and White in a Rockies uniform.  Minor League stats mean nothing.

Question 3 – Aside from Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera, the Indians had a miserable offense last year.  What can happen to make the offense better in 2012?

Plate discipline is the simple answer.  The Indians struck out waaaay too much for a team that was trying to make the playoffs.  I think that strikeout number will come down in 2012 as Matt LaPorta, who had to average at least 17 strikeouts per game, will not be the team’s first baseman.  The development of the young hitters will also get the offense to come around and improve on their 2011 numbers.  Guys like Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley will need to be the offensive leaders and last season was definitely a fluke for Shin-Soo Choo who should return to his .300 form.

The World Series is over.  The 2011 season is over.  But now it’s time for the craziest time in baseball – the silly season.

Free agency gets under way tomorrow.  It is a time of year when every GM, every team, and every fan can dream.  Maybe we can get Pujols!  Maybe we can get Fielder!  Yay!  World Series 2012!

Well, things are a little bit different this year, as the top name in the free agent class has already come off the board.  I’m not talking about Pujols.  I’m not talking about Sabathia.  I’m not talking about Fielder, Wilson, or Reyes.

No – I’m talking about the one and only…

Edwin Encarnacion.

The 3B / 1B / LF / DH / Bench player had his option picked up by the Jays, meaning him and his “30 HR potential” will back in Toronto.  Get ready for another season of 500 Level Fan love and hate Eddie!

For real though – with the free agency period set to begin tomorrow I thought I’d rekindle last year’s free agent prediction column and take a look at the top 10 MLB free agents (as determined by MLB.com’s Free Agent Frenzy game) and tell my loyal readers where they’ll sign. 

As an aside, last year I was right about 4 of the 12 FA’s, so please don’t lay down any money on these picks…

The “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” Division

Albert Pujols

2011: Cardinals, 2012: Cardinals

The greatest hitter of his generation might be interested in testing the market, but let’s be honest – he’ll be staying put.  He is on the verge of setting all kinds of Cardinals franchise records, loves the city, is loved by the fans, has his foundation in St. Louis, and is fresh of his second World Series title with the Cards.  Somebody will have to offer him 10 years and $300-million to persuade him to leave, and since Albert will be 32 in January, I can’t see any team biting.  It’ll still cost them a ton, but St. Louis keeps him.

Heath Bell

2011: Padres, 2012: Padres

It doesn’t really seem to make any sense for a rebuilding team with a small payroll to commit upwards of $8-million + on a 34-year old closer, but I think that is exactly what San Diego will do.  Not only does Bell love the city, but odds are that he will take a bit of a hometown discount to stay with San Diego.  If the Padres can sign him to a multi-year deal then it just might end up making the most sense in the world – come the trading deadline they will be armed with a reasonably cheap, three time All-Star closer with one year left on his deal.  That could be worth a boatload of prospects.

The “I Guess I’ll Stay” Division

Jonathan Papelbon

2011: Red Sox, 2012: Red Sox

If Theo Epstein and Terry Francona were still around, I think that Jonathan “The Self Cleaning Anus” Papelbon would be gone.  But those guys are gone, and I would expect the new front office to try and keep as much of the 2011 foundation intact as possible.  Which means that even though Daniel Bard might be able to step in and take over the closers chair, SCA stays.

Carlos Beltran

2011: Mets / Giants, 2011: Giants

He’s aging, he’s injury prone, and his defense isn’t as great as it once was.  All of that screams a move to the AL to become a DH.  But one thing – Beltran wants no part of that, and we all saw how much success Adam Dunn had with that transition last year.  Instead, I see him staying put in San Fran.  The Giants are desperate for offense, and he performed well there in his 42 game tryout at the end of last season (.920 OPS).

Jimmy Rollins

2011: Phillies, 2012: Phillies

He’ll be 33 in a few weeks, he’s being going downhill both offensively and defensively in recent years, and he wants a 5-year deal.  I don’t think he gets that.  But I also don’t think he goes anywhere.  At the end of the day, Rollins is a career Phillie, and still considered part of the dangerous (albeit aging) Philadelphia core who want to win another title together.  He stays. 

The Logical Train of Thought Division

David Ortiz

2011: Red Sox, 2012: Blue Jays

Logic: I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m buying the media hype about Ortiz joining the Jays.  Why?  Because it actually makes sense.  The Jays could use a better, more permanent DH, especially now that Encarnacion is going to more of a utility player.  Ortiz has hinted he wants out of Boston.  He is also very close with Jose Bautista.  Maybe a fit? (Then again, Manny Ramirez to Toronto made sense as well last year…oops).

C.J. Wilson

2011: Rangers, 2012: Angels

Logic: Wilson is the strongest pitcher on the market, but proved that he is clearly not an ace with his disastrous post-season.  He will be asking for ace type money however, which puts him out of range of many teams.  Though many might think the Yankees make the most sense, they really need a number two type starter, not an A.J. Burnett clone.  The Angels were widely grilled for their terrible offseason last year, and having Wilson slot in behind Haren and Weaver would take the pressure off him a bit.  Angels win.

The “I Have Absolutely No Idea” Division

Aramis Ramirez

2011: Cubs, 2012: Marlins

Ramirez declined his side of a mutual option, meaning he is available to test the open market.  Though the 3B is aging  (he’ll turn 34 in 2012), he is still a powerful and productive third baseman, which is good news for him in a thin market.  So why the Marlins?  Two reasons really: 1) they are moving to a new stadium and have some money to spend, and 2) they don’t have a third baseman.  Match made in heaven.

Jose Reyes

2011: Mets, 2012: Nationals

Washington is a team on the rise, with Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, and Drew Storen. They are a team that has shown they are not afraid to spend, no matter how wise or unwise the amount (see Werth, Jayson).  And they are a team with a starting shortstop that hit .253 with 8 HR.  Reyes would likely get overpaid and get to stay in the NL East.  Why not?

Prince Fielder

2011: Brewers, 2012: Cubs

To be honest I have absolutely no idea where Prince will end up.  The Dodgers?  The Mariners?  Florida?  Toronto?  With a new GM with a history of winning, with (likely) Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena coming off the books, and with lots of money to spend in a large market, the Cubs seem like as good a guess as any…