After Toronto (with a little help from some awful umpiring) gifted a win to Tampa Bay last night, the team finds itself in a brutal position through 45 games:

Dead last in the AL East.

Nine games under .500.

Ten games back of the first place Yankees.

Seven games back of the second Wild Card.

In short, it’s not where anybody expected the team to be on the morning of May 22nd.  And I really do mean anybody – fans, experts, writers, and players.

So the question is – is this season over?  Faced with such an uphill climb (the Jays are only ahead of Houston in the entire American League), is there any hope that they can still earn the franchise’s first playoff spot since 1993?

I think there is.

Is the task ahead improbable?  Yes.  But is it impossible?  No.

Last season through 45 games, the Oakland Athletics had a better record than Toronto, but were still under .500 and trailed the first place Rangers by 5 games.  They finished the season 72 – 45 to claim the AL West title.  (For those counting, the 2011 Brewers, 2011 Diamondbacks, and 2010 White Sox were each under .500 at this point of the season and won 72+ games to the end of the year).  Yes the circumstances are different, but the same finish by Toronto would give them 90 wins.  Would that be enough for a Wild Card?  93 wins were required last year, so it might not be.  But it would still be close.

The main reason why I still think there is at least a little bit of hope is because 2013 has been for the most part a worst case scenario season.  Seriously – look at the best and worst case scenarios for several players:

Jose Reyes

Best Case – Proves he is still a beast at the top of the order

Worst Case – He’s injury prone and misses a big chunk of the season

R.A. Dickey

Best Case – Proves 2011 and 2012 were not flukes and dominates

Worst Case – Regresses due to new league and due to age

Mark Buehrle

Best Case – A solid #3 or #4 starter

Worst Case – Regresses due to new league and due to age

Melky Cabrera

Best Case – Plays with a chip on his shoulder and proves that he can hit without PEDs

Worst Case – Playing clean saps him of his power

Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis

Best Case – Provide solid defense at second base, get on base a lot, and score runs

Worst Case – Can’t handle second base, and prove awful at the plate

Josh Johnson

Best Case – In a contract year, has a career season

Worst Case – The injury prone pitcher hits the DL and misses a lot of time

For the seven new additions to the team, I would say that the worst case scenario has happened for ALL SEVEN!!!  But can that kind of bad luck really last?  Dickey and Buehrle have started to turn it around, and though Melky isn’t hitting home runs, he has started hitting a lot of doubles lately.  Both Reyes and Johnson will be back relatively soon.  And throw in guys like Brandon Morrow and Brett Lawrie who can’t possibly continue to play this badly, and you have a bit of reason for optimism.  Things have to get better!

So that brings us to the next question.  How can they turn it around?  Though it sounds like a cliche, the Blue Jays have to focus on one series at a time.  To look at the standings, to look at the record and the deficit they face in the division is too much.  To say they need to win 75 of the next 117 games is too much.  But to focus on one series at a time – that is an achievable and reachable goal.

Looking at the schedule, the Blue Jays have 117 games remaining.  One is this afternoon’s series concluding tilt with the Rays.  The remaning 116 games can be broken down into series. 

The Jays play three 2-game series, 26 3-game series, and eight 4-game series. (Note: the August 20-22 set in New York will most likely become a four-game series from August 19-22 after last weekend’s rain out).

If Toronto splits the 11 2-game and 4-game series, that gives them 19 additional wins.  If they then win each of the 26 3-game sets, that gives them an additional 52 wins, meaning they would finish 71-45.  Win today, and that matches Oakland’s win total from last year. 

Is it realistic that the Blue Jays will win EVERY SINGLE 3-game set the rest of the season?  No, probably not.  But if they lose five of them, they can just as easily win five of the 4-game series to make up for it.  Plus, don’t forget that Toronto has yet to play Minnesota and Houston, two of the worst teams in the AL.  They have 13 games upcoming against them.

The point is, breaking down the season into manageable 3 and 4 game sets makes the task seem much more achievable. 

I’m not saying it will happen.

But I’m saying that with 117 games left to play, I’m not ready to write-off the 2013 Blue Jays just yet.

And neither should you.

2013 just keeps getting harder for Blue Jays fans.  After taking a 4-3 lead to the seventh inning in Tampa last night, the bullpen couldn’t hold it, leading to a 5-4 loss in extra innings.  And while many will point the finger at Brad Lincoln for walking two straight hitters (including a bases loaded walk to lose), or John Gibbons for intentionally walking James Loney, neither of those moments was the real problem.  Neither delivered the real sucker punch to the gut.

No, that came in the bottom of the seventh, when Steve Delabar gave up a leadoff home run to Yunel Escobar to knot the score at four.

The fact that the lead was gone on one pitch stings.  But that fact that it was a former Jay sticking it to his old team makes it that much harder to take.

It feels like this has been happening a lot this year – a former member of our team wreaking havoc on this year’s version.  It seems like every series a former Jay is coming up big to steal a win against his old club.

To see just how bad it has been, I decided to compile some numbers. 

By my count, there have been 10 former Blue Jays to come to the plate against Toronto this  year: Dewayne Wise and Alex Rios of the White Sox; Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix, Vernon Wells, and Ben Francisco of the  Yankees; and Jose Molina, Ryan Roberts, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson of the Rays.

As you can see from the above chart, it’s not just a figment of our imaginations – ex Jays actually ARE destroying us this year.  With an OPS of .811, 8 HR, 17 RBI, and 27 runs scored, former Blue Jays are performing at an elite level when they play against us.  And what hurts even more is that a lot of the big hits have been timely, such as Escobar last night, or Overbay against Dickey in New York, or Vernon Wells killing the Jays in the dome.

It can even be worse.  If you really wanted to, you could technically add Mike Napoli’s name to the above chart.  Though he never actually played a game with the Jays, he was a member of the team for a few days in January 2011.  And judging by the way he has pounded Blue Jay pitching this year,  he must have really hated the way he was treated between January 21 and January 25, 2011:

Mike Napoli vs. Toronto in 2013

27 AB, 7 Hits, 7 Runs Scored, 3 2B, 4 HR, 11 RBI, .259 AVG, .815 SLG, 1.101 OPS

Of course, we can even take it one step further and include John Farrell.  The former manager bolted to the Red Sox over the winter, and has led his new team to a 4-2 record against the Jays, with all six games coming in Toronto.

In short, ex-Jays are killing us.

And if you think it will get easier, think again.  In the next 11 games Toronto faces:

Boston (with Napoli and Farrell)

San Francisco (with Marco Scutaro and Guillermo Quiroz)

New York (Overbay, Nix, Wells, Francisco)

Tampa Bay (Roberts, Molina, Escobar, Johnson)

Oh no…

photo from mlb.com

June 5th, 2007.

That date, nearly six years ago, now has three things in common with May 6th, 2013:

1. The Toronto Blue Jays played Tampa Bay.

2. John Gibbons and Joe Maddon were the managers.

3. The Jays overturned a 7-run deficit to win a game they had no business winning.

The Blue Jays team that took the field that Tuesday night was an interesting mix of age and youth, of big names and no-names:

- Alex Rios

- Vernon Wells

- Matt Stairs

- Frank Thomas

- Troy Glaus

- Aaron Hill

- Adam Lind

- Sal Fasano

- John McDonald

I remember that game fondly, because I was at the dome to see it.  A group of us decided to stick around for the whole game, despite Toronto falling behind 8-1 in the 4th, and 11-6 in the 9th.  While many made for the exits, we kept drinking and cheering, and it paid off.

I vividly remember the ninth inning rally, friends and I going mental when they started chipping away at the lead.  Aaron Hill walked to lead off the ninth, followed by back-to-back RBI doubles from Lind and Jason Phillips.  After another walk and a groundout, Wells and Stairs went back-to-back with doubles to bring in three more and tie the score.  Three more walks followed, allowing Matt Stairs to trot in with the winning run and complete the massive comeback.

There were high fives, there were embraces, and there were huge smiles. 

Of the many things that have been missing in this abysmal start to 2013, a huge smile is the one that hurts the most.  Baseball is a fun game, and being a fan of a team is supposed to bring fun and joy, not disappointment.  Too often this year the Jays have delivered the fan base nothing but heartache and anger, fuelled by bases-loaded double plays, opponent grand slams, and errors aplenty.

Down 7-0 after three innings last night, things were once again bleak.  Gone was the momentum the team built by pounding Seattle on Sunday.  Gone was the goodwill and the little slice of hope that the team delivered to fans after finally coming through with the bats.

Mark Buehrle was getting pulverized.  The bats were quiet.  And to make matters worse, the Jays were playing in Tampa Bay, at Tropicana Field, the place where, for the past several seasons, their season has died.

But they started chipping away, bit by bit.  A single and a bomb scored two.  A couple of walks then a single cut the lead to four.  Another HR by big, bad DeRosa brought us ever closer.

And then came two key plays, two plays that would have ruined everything as soon as one week ago.  Two plays, for their futility and for the way the team overcame them, that may define the rest of the season.

Bautista’s baserunning blunder in the 7th inning, getting thrown out at the plate for the first out, ruined a golden chance to score.  Tell me honestly – if that would have happened in a game last week, would Toronto have overcome it?  I think they would have finished the game weakly, too disillusioned to fight any harder. 

Then in the 9th, down by one, tying run on third and nobody out.  All Rasmus or Izturis need to do is put a ball in the outfield.  Anywhere.  With Bonifacio on third, he can score on just about any fly ball.  But Rasmus whiffed, terribly.  Izturis hit a sharp grounder, but right to first.  Suddenly, two outs.  No longer does a fly ball do anything.

Again, tell me – do you see this team rebounding from that if it happened a week ago?  With all the negativity that was surrounding the squad, with the belief that nothing was going to go right, I have a hard time picturing them recovering.

But something was different.  Maybe the win on Sunday, with the team finally getting hits, finally scoring runs, and finally overcoming adversity, has changed the mentality.  Maybe the belief that things will turn around and that this team is good has returned. 

When Arencibia launched the game winning bomb with two strikes, it felt like an enormous weight was lifted – not only off the team, but off the fans as well. 

With the first back-to-back wins since April 12-13, we can finally cheer again. 

Finally – something to smile about.

How to summarize last night’s game?  How about like this:

- Things started out great

- Things got bad

- Things got really bad and ugly

- Things ended well

That about do it?

In the course of a normal season, last night’s game would have been outstanding – a potential game of the year candidate.  It had everything: lead changes, comebacks, massive home runs, sloppy play, good pitching, bad pitching, and a Blue Jays victory.

But, of course, 2013 is anything but a normal season.  Sitting at 9-17 and already 9.5 games behind Boston in the East, Toronto could not afford another loss . Already hemorrhaging fans at an alarming pace, and with the #FireGibbons movement picking up steam, the Jays had to stop the bleeding.  A win was mandatory.

And just like it seemed like fans were going to be (finally) satisfied, the 7th inning happened.  By the 7th, a 4-0 lead had already slipped to 4-3, grown to 6-3, then slipped to 6-4.  With one on and one out, a tailor made double play ball was hit to Kawasaki at short . He promptly threw it away.  A walk and a double later, the Jays are down 7-6, and the world is over.

Thankfully Edwin destroyed a pitch in the bottom of the inning to reclaim the lead and the Jays hung on for the much needed win.

But again – this has not been a normal year, so although it felt great to break the losing streak and to beat the best team in the division. you can’t help but think about the problems, such as:

- The pitching.  Staked to a 4-0 lead, Brandon Morrow just couldn’t make the pitches he needed in order to wrap the game up.  He gave up two home runs in the fourth, then three singles in the fifth, and never even made it out to see the sixth inning.

- The offense . Yes they scored nine runs, but they were gifted two on a terrible error by Saltalamacchia and scored four on home runs – and in reality they easily could have scored much, much more.  They had a runner on second with one out in the first and failed to bring him home.  They had the bases loaded with nobody out in the third, and only the error saved them from disaster.  The strikeouts are still high (Rasmus, Bonficacio, and Cabrera each K’d twice), and Cabrera, Bonifacio, and Izturis continue to be terrible at the dish.

- The defense.  Officially, the error was given to Kawasaki, but the fault was clearly with Maicer Izturis.  The toss may have been a bit off, but it was catchable.  The effort to catch the ball was just plain feeble. 

Just plain feeble is a good way to describe Izturis thus far.  I was high on him in the offseason, but he has been unimpressive at best.  He has a .193 average, .510 OPS, and only 4 extra base hits in 83 at bats.  His mediocre at best defense doens’t come anywhere close to bailing him out either.

But hey – a win’s a win. 

In my mind, if Toronto can hang around the .500 mark and stay within 7-10 games of first until Reyes is back, they have a chance. 

One game at a time…

True story #1: I love the Blue Jays.  Baseball has been my favourite sport, and the Blue Jays my favourite sports team, since I was a little kid.

True story #2: 2013 was supposed to be a season to remember.  To this point, 2013 has been the most disappointing season of my life.

It’s early.  Even though the calendar switches to May in a few days there are a lot of games left to be played.  It’s not as early as it was after the first few weeks, but it’s still early.

But despite the fact that it’s early, I’m frustrated.  So to counteract my frustration I decided to do the unthinkable – take a half week hiatus from the team I love.  I watched virtually none of the Yankees series, far too frustrated to be able to watch it calmly.  Watching the Jays lose game after game was brutal.

Well, this didn’t sit well with one of my fans.  (Yes, believe it or not, 500 Level Fan has some loyal readers!).

What follows is a conversation between myself and @TheCraiger – fan of the Jays, of 500 Level Fan, of beer in Vancouver, and of beautiful women.

@TheCraiger: As a loyal reader of the blog, the fact that you have decided to not watch for a while concerns me. Knowing how much you love baseball, I’m sure you’re likely buried deep in the bowels of the 2013 baseball stats crunching numbers for future posts. However, I have a small rant.  No back-up, no proof.  Only my opinion.  Will you hear me out?

500 Level Fan: Absolutely.  But first – don’t be concerned about the hiatus.  I’m not giving up on the team.  It’s just tough to watch right now.  It’s like when you’re online dating and the girl you actually meet up with looks nothing like the beautiful photo she posted on her profile.  Or when you order a pint of delicious, micro-brewed beer and accidentally get a Bud Light.  It’s awful.  It’s disappointing.  The reality has not matched the potential, and I just needed a few days away from watching it.

@TheCraiger:  Here are the issues I have with this team so far.  First is home runs.  Everyone is trying to hit them.  Shorten the swing and let the HR’s come organically.  More importantly, play some small ball and get more runners on base.  From there they will get into scoring position.  The Jays will probably strike out less as a result of some focus. Be smart at the plate and think about the team, idiots.

500 Level Fan:  Fully agree.  The averages, the on base percentages, they’re all garbage.  I think a big part of the problem is the “be a hero” approach of hitting home runs.  You can tell during each at bat – players are swinging for the fences.  Here’s a stat for you: the Blue Jays are tied with the Yankees with 33 HR – most in the AL.  Yet the Jays have scored 16 fewer runs than New York.  They’ve scored 36 fewer runs than Oakland, yet the A’s have slugged only 24 home runs.  Too many of Toronto’s HR’s are solo shots because EVERYBODY wants to hit one.

@TheCraiger:  Here’s my second issue: arrogance.  The team has a harmful aura of arrogance fuelled by all the pre-season media hype.  The Jays had their chance to swagger their faces off and strut around like ego maniacs. All they needed to do is have a good start and play good baseball.  Well, they crapped the bed and that ship has sailed.  Be humble and play smart baseball, idiots.

500 Level Fan: Arrogance!  I like it!  It certainly seems like they thought things were going to be easy, at least easier than they have been.  It’s almost like this team needed adversity to come together.  Then they got it with the Reyes injury, but the losses have kept coming.  What they really need is to hit rock bottom.  Maybe being swept by the Yankees and seeing guys like Lyle Overbay and Vernon Wells beat them will give them the kick in the pants they need.  There better not be any more arrogance…

@TheCraiger:  Brett Lawrie – someone neuter him.  The human body can only run at 100%.  Brett forces his body to run at 180%, and this will cost him.  At this rate, he will be on the DL in 2 weeks.  Prediction: Brett will start the second half of the year on the DL.  Treat your body with respect and you will have a decent season, idiot.

500 Level Fan: I might let him save his nuts, but see where you’re coming from.  I like his style play, but he needs to stop arguing balls and strikes.  You’re not going to get any close calls if you do that.

@TheCraiger:  Ricky: it’s official, this man is a head case.  Bye Ricky, you idiot.

500 Level Fan: Like it or not, I think they have too much invested in him to simply let him go.  Plus, if it means anything, his first start for Dunedin went well!

@TheCraiger:  My biggest issue with the team, though, is Gibbons.  AA has given Gibbons a second chance.  After seeing three of his various post-game press conferences, it’s clear he is not a baseball man.  That or he just doesn’t care.  I’m not saying fire him…yet…but the turnaround starts with him.  Get control of your team, idiot.

500 Level Fan:  I think Gibbons is a very respected baseball man, who spent many years as a bench coach after his managerial stint with the Jays.  And like it or not, he’s not going anywhere either.  This is very much AA’s team now.  He inherited a mess left by Ricciardi, spent years building the farm system up to turn the Jays into a contender, and has now cashed in on that.  For better or worse, AA has pegged Gibbons to be the man to guide his team.  Firing him now would be admitting that he picked the wrong man for the job, a move that would look terrible on him.  It would also make it harder to attract other top managers and free agents, because who wants to go a team that gets rid of you only 16% into the season?  Gibbons might not carry himself well in post-game press conferences, but let’s be honest here – the man can’t hit.  That’s the biggest problem of all with this team – not the lineups, not the bullpen management, and not the base running.  It’s the hitting and fielding, and Gibbons can’t control either of those.  Sadly, Gibbons’ main problem was that he was a surprise choice to lead the team, so anything less than amazing results will lead to tons of armchair fans to say “I told you so.”

@TheCraiger.  This year is by no means over, but they need to figure it out.  Idiots.

500 Level Fan:  Fully agree.  If they are still eight games under .500 come June, then I think we’re in trouble.  Now?  We’ll be OK.

And even better – the half week hiatus is over.

We saw something rare from the Blue Jays yesterday, something that has been altogether lacking so far in 2013 – life.

After blowing a 3-run lead in the seventh, the team buckled down to beat the Orioles in 11 innings, avoiding a sweep, and maybe – just maybe – sparking the team to better things.

But despite yesterday’s win, there’s no denying that through the season’s first 22 games, the Blue Jays have been a big disappointment.  A 9-13 record and last place in the East is not how fans envisioned things after the great offseason.  And while the record is shocking enough in itself, it is not as shocking as these 10 stats – 5 from Toronto and 5 from around the league – early on in 2013:

1. Blue Jays run differential of -29

With what was supposed to be a rebuilt rotation, a solid bullpen, and a powerful offense, this is crazy.  Things have been better recently, but when the Jays lose, they lose badly.  The -29 is only better than Seattle and Houston.

2. Melky Cabrera, Brett Lawrie, and Adam Lind combined home runs: 0

Yes Lawrie was hurt and Lind hasn’t played everyday.  Yes Cabrera is now “clean”.  But the trio have combined for only seven extra base hits and a slugging percentage of .281.  Not good enough.

3. Best starter statistically is J.A. Happ

The least heralded and celebrated member of the staff leads all starters with a 3.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.5 H/9, and a 115 ERA+.

4. Blue Jays are the worst defensive team in baseball

At least by baseball reference’s Total Zone rating they are, with a -20 rating meaning the defense has cost the team 20 runs.  Who knew Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson would be missed so much?

5. Blue Jays are one of the worst offensive teams too

Toronto’s AL rank in major categories: batting average – last, OBP – third last, OPS – fourth last.  With the hitters Toronto has this won’t last.

Now for five stats from around the league:

1. Colorado Rockies: 14-7

I picked them to finish dead last, yet here they are in first.  And having played the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Braves, they haven’t exactly been playing bad teams either.

2. Matt Cain: 104th ranked ERA

The Giants ace has been as steady as they come over the years, but an awful start has him ranked 104th in baseball among qualified pitchers with a 6.59 ERA.

3. Adam Dunn = pathetic

Adam Dunn has always had problems with strikeouts and batting average, but this year is ridiculous.  He currently has only 7 hits in 70 at bats, for a .100 average.  He has 28 strikeouts and only three home runs.

4. Joey Votto has 26 walks

He leads the league by a mile, and is currently on pace for 198 free passes.  That would be the second highest single season walk total in major league history.

5. LA Dodgers have scored only 64 runs

That total ranks them second last in all of baseball.  For a team that spent a lot of money on a loaded lineup (with Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier), that is a shockingly pathetic offense.

News Flash!

The Toronto Blue Jays have played 14 baseball games thus far in 2013, and sport a record of 6 – 8.

Based on the pre-season hype surrounding the team, and on the series of offseason acquisitions, many fans expected a record closer to 12 – 2.  For that reason, the Jays bandwagon is emptying faster than you can blink. 

“The team is a bust!” they are saying.  “What a bunch of losers!”

I’ve already implored people to recognize that baseball is a long, long season, that 162 games is a marathon not a sprint, and that 14 games is only a fraction of the schedule.

But panic has still set in, regardless of the small sample size.

So how about this?  Let’s focus on the glass half full aspect of life.

Follow me for a second:

FACT - The Blue Jays much improved and heavily vaunted starting rotation has an ERA of 5.77, good for 28th in the majors.

FACT - Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, one of the top 3-4 combo’s in all of baseball, have combined for only 5 HR, a .205 average, a .702 OPS, and 21 strikeouts.

FACT - Bautista has missed 5 games, Brett Lawrie missed the first 13 games, Jose Reyes has missed the past 4 games, and Sergio Santos just went on the DL.

FACT - Normally rock solid reliever Darren Oliver has a 5.40 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP through 5 innings

FACT - The defense has been awful: 8 errors committed and a total zone rating of -15 (second worst in baseball).

FACT - Bench leader and great teammate Mark DeRosa has actually played in 9 games, and is hitting a robust .174.

FACT - The Jays have allowed 20 more runs than they’ve scored.

I have just presented seven cold, hard, inarguable facts. 

If you would have told somebody that after 14 games, each of those seven statements would be true, what do you think that person would estimate Toronto’s record to be?

My guess?  4 – 10.  Maybe 3 – 11.

Certainly not 6 – 8.

And to make everybody feel even better, here is an 8th fact. Each of those seven statements above can only get better from here.

Imagine what happens to the record then?

Mrs. 500 Level Fan and I returned Tuesday from 11 wonderful days in Ireland.

The weather was amazing.  The food was fantastic.  The people were unbelievably friendly and laid back.

And the beer….well, it goes without saying that the beer was unreal.

But the trip was beautiful in another way that I didn’t truly realize until I got back.

Let me explain:

The Irish don’t really care about baseball.  Hurling, Gaelic football, Rugby, and Soccer are their big sports.  As such, there wasn’t any Opening Week coverage in the papers or on the TV.  While most of our hotels had WiFi internet access, I was basically limited to checking the scores of games.  I rarely checked Twitter, and didn’t read any of the other Jays blogs or news sources at all.  I knew the Jays were struggling, and that was it.

When I finally turned on my phone and re-connected to the world on Tuesday afternoon, the Blue Jays had just lost 7-3 to Detroit to fall to 2-5.

And that loss ended the world for many.

Being away for 11 days made me forget just how annoying and irrational Toronto sports fans can be.  By 4:30 PM on Tuesday, Twitter was full of the following:

#FireGibbons

“This season is over”

“The team is a bust”

“R.A. Dickey is overrated”

“At least the Leafs are OK, cause the Jays suck”

To which I can only respond: are you people serious?

By my calculations, on Tuesday afternoon the Toronto Blue Jays had played a total of seven baseball games.  Let me repeat that – SEVEN!  The last time I checked, the Blue Jays play a 162 game schedule, meaning that 4.3% of the season was complete.

Again: 4.3%.

Now, let’s talk about context.  Let’s assess what Toronto’s start would look like in other sports.

For example, the NHL plays an 82 game schedule, so in hockey terms, the Jays start would equate to a record of 1-2.

In major soccer leagues, like the EPL and Spain’s La Liga, it would be maybe 0-1-1, or one point through two games.

In the NFL?  4.3% of a 16 game season is less than one game, but let’s round up and say a team would be 0-1 right now.

So what does that mean?  Well it means that if the same “this season is over already” logic was applied to the following teams after 4.3% of their respective seasons were over, people would look like idiots:

- In MLB last season, Cincinnati started 3-6, Oakland started 2-4, and San Francisco started 2-4.

- In the NHL last season, the LA Kings started 1-1-1, the Canucks 1-2-1, and the Rangers 0-1-2.

- In European soccer this year, Tottenham began 0-1-1 (1 point), Arsenal 0-0-2 (2 points), and Real Madrid 0-1-1 (1 point).

- In the NFL, the Colts, Seahawks, and Packers all lost their first games.

And what do those 12 teams have in common?  All nine of the North American teams made the playoffs, with San Francisco and LA winning titles, and each of the three Euro soccer teams are currently holding down Champions League places for next season.

So smarten up Jays fans.  There is a long, long way to go.

2013 marks the third edition of the World Baseball Classic, and this time it is bigger (and better?) than ever.

This edition comes equipped with the addition of a qualifying round, and an expansion from 16 to 28 teams.  Due to Canada’s terrible performance at the 2009 Classic they were forced to go through the qualifying rounds.  Despite playing without major league talent, the Canucks were lucky enough to get by the Czech Republic, Germany, and Great Britain, and join Spain, Chinese Taipei, and Brazil in the main tournament.

Technically I’m a bit late with this preview (pool A and pool B are both already done – oops), but the important games to Canadian fans don’t get underway until later this week.

Here is a preview of this year’s event.

Pool A

Teams: Japan, China, Cuba, Brazil

Dates: March 2 – March 6, 2013

Venue: Japan

Major League Talent:

Japan – Not only does Japan not have Yu Darvish and Ichiro Suzuki – they don’t have any players currently on major league rosters. 

Cuba - Freddy Alvarez (Tampa Bay)

China – Ray Chang (Cincinnati)

Brazil – 10 players, though none at the major league level after Yan Gomes decided not to play.

Preview:  Japan is the two time defending champion, and should have no problem advancing.  Their only test will be from Cuba, who made the final in the inaugural event.  Both teams should easily advance, and both in fact have.  One would have expected Brazil to finish ahead of China and take third place, which brings with it an automatic birth in the 2017 Classic.    However, shockingly, China rallied to beat Brazil to steal third place yesterday.

Pool B

Teams: South Korea, Netherlands, Australia, Chinese Taipei

Dates: March 2 – March 5, 2013

Venue: Republic of China

Major League Talent:

South Korea – Zero MLB affiliated players 

Netherlands - 11 players, lead by Roger Bernadina of Washington and Andrelton Simmons of Atlanta

Australia – 11 players, though none at the major league level

Chinese Taipei - 2 players, though none at the major league level

Preview:  Behind Japan, South Korea has likely been the most successful team in the history of this event.  They went 6 – 0 in 2006 before falling to Japan in the semi-finals, then lost to Japan in the final in 2010.  One would expect them to advance relatively easily, along with the Netherlands.  However, the Koreans finished in third place behind Chinese Taipei and the Netherlands, despite each having matching 2-1 records.  A tiebreaker made up of runs for and against called “Teams’s Quality Balance” ensured their elimination.

Pool C

Teams: Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Spain

Dates: March 7 – March 10, 2013

Venue: Puerto Rico

Major League Talent:

Venezuela – Virtually the entire team does, or has, played in the majors.  There are big names on this squad, including Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Miguel Montero, Salvador Perez, Anibal Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Carlos Zambrano.  Former Blue Jay Henderson Alvarez will also take the mound. 

Puerto Rico - Like Venezuela, virtually the entire team is MLB affiliated, though the star quality lags behind.  Puerto Rico is lead by Carlos Beltran, Jose Molina, Yadier Molina, Angel Pagan, and Alex Rios.  Current Blue Jay farmhand Efrain Nieves is also a member.

Dominican Republic – This is your big boy.  An All-Star worthy collection of MLB talent, including Erick Aybar, Robinson Cano, Santiago Casilla, Nelson Cruz, Alejandro De Aza, Octavio Dotel, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Santana, Miguel Tejada, and Edinson Volquez.  The Dominican will also feature Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, Ricardo Nanita, and Moises Sierra of the Jays.

Spain – 8 players, though none at the major league level

Preview:  After reaching the semi-final in 2006, the Dominican Republic twice lost to the Netherlands to fall flat in the 2010 edition.  This season, the offense looks stacked, but questions about starting pitching linger.  Venezuela might be even more offensively powerful, and have at least one strong starter in Anibal Sanchez.  Puerto Rico will buoyed by the home crowd, but doesn’t have the horses to keep up with the big boys, even with Alex “Who gives a f**k” Rios.  Spain should be nothing more than an afterthought.

Pool D

Teams: United States, Mexico, Italy, Canada

Dates: March 7 – March 10, 2013

Venue: United States

Major League Talent:

United States – A full squad of MLB talent, but obviously the talk has been more about who is not here, including players like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and a host of All-Star arms (Cain, Lincecum, Verlander, Strasburg).  The team is still solid, however, with Ryan Braun, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Craig Kimbrel, Joe Mauer, Brandon Phillips, Jimmy Rollins, Giancarlo Stanton, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Vogelsong, David Wright and Ben Zobrist.  R. A. Dickey and J.P. Arencibia from Toronto are also on the roster. 

Mexico - 18 players affiliated with MLB teams, including Alfredo Aceves, Yovani Gallardo, Adrian Gonzalez, and Sergio Romo.

Italy – 13 players affiliated with MLB teams, including Drew Butera, Jason Grilli, Nick Punto, and Anthony Rizzo.

Canada – Most of the team has MLB affiliation, with the key players being John Axford, Justin Morneau, Michael Saunders, Jameson Taillon, and Joey Votto, along with Blue Jays Brett Lawrie, Adam Loewen, and Trystan Magnuson.

Preview:  On paper, the US should be a lock to move on, as they are clearly a notch above the rest of the pool.  It will come down to passion – do the Americans care about this event as much as the Latin and Asian players do?  Canada should be ahead of Mexico and Italy, but both of those teams have solid players, and won’t be easy outs.  Canada knows first hand after losing to Italy in an elimination game in 2010.  Still, with Votto and Lawrie leading the way, I like Canada to advance.

Second Round and Finals

Much depends on where teams finish, as the standings in round one determine the pools for round two.  Still, it’s hard to argue against the status quo, and I can see Japan and Cuba making it to the semi-final round.  They will be joined there by two of Venezuela, Dominican Republic, and the USA.  I just can’t see the team of second level American stars putting forth the kind of emotion and passion as those from the Latin countries, so for that reason, the  US won’t make it….again.

Champions: Dominican Republic.  The small nation is known as a baseball factory, and it’s time they finally prove it.  The Dominican finally gets over the hump, and ends Japan’s reign at the top.  It will hopefully be the first taste of victory for Jose Reyes, and Edwin Encarnacion ahead of what should be a successful year in  Toronto.

After a long, cold winter it’s finally time to celebrate – baseball is back!

OK, OK – maybe spring training games aren’t quite as good as the real thing, but they will have to suffice for now.  And if you’re anything like me, you’d gladly watch a split squad game with scrubs and rookies than a Milwaukee vs. Utah NBA game anyday.

But spring training games bring a warning with them, a warning that every baseball fan should – no, MUST – heed.

That warning is this: don’t get too invested in the games. 

Already, only a few games in, there are some people on Twitter, on message boards, and on other social media that are worried about this player’s poor batting start, or that pitcher’s rough inning.  There are people who are concerned that the Angels are 0-4, and people that are overjoyed that the Indians are 5-0. 

Don’t get too invested in those things.  Here are three reasons why:

1. Player stats are meaningless

For the majority of major league players, spring training is a time to get loose and shake off the winter rust.  For the most part, big league rosters are already set and players aren’t battling for jobs.  Some pitchers take the spring as a chance to test out a new pitch, maybe see if an altered grip on a changeup can be effective in a real game.  There are some hitters who might spend an entire exhibition game trying to only hit the ball on the ground to the opposite field, with the goal being to perfect that type of swing.

If a key player on your favourite team finishes the spring with a .078 average, it isn’t the end of the world.  If your staff ace makes six starts, goes 0-4 with a 7.85 ERA?  Who cares!

Do the names Chris Johnson, Jake Fox, and Matt Hague ring a bell?  Probably not, but they were your past three spring training home run champions.  How about Luis Mendoza of Kansas City?  No?  Well, he took the ERA title last spring, with a 0.47 ERA in six starts.  Johnson, Fox, and Hague combined for 25 spring home runs, yet only combined for 13 regular season home runs.  Mendoza saw his ERA skyrocket to 4.23.

Conversely, Mike Trout only made it into three games last spring, and Ryan Braun put up a .213 average with a .719 OPS and 2 HR.  Both of those guys had pretty solid years, as did CC Sabathia, who slumped to a 5.00 ERA in the spring. 

Jays fans need look no further than Eric Thames, who destroyed the spring with a .987 OPS, only to fall flat when the games counted.

While it can be fun to look at them, don’t be fooled.  Spring stats mean absolutely nothing.

2. Spring records mean even less

The Blue Jays finished the spring of 2012 with a record of 24 -7, best in the bigs. 

The Kansas City Royals finished the spring of 2011 with a record of 20 – 10, best in the bigs. 

In both cases, fans of each team were excited heading into the year.  Comments like “our up-and-coming team is ready”, and “it’s a sign of good things to come” were heard in both cities.

KC finished the 2011 season 20 games under .500, in second last place in the AL Central.  The Jays, obviously, didn’t do much better.

Over the past 10 seasons, the team with the best record in spring training has won the World Series a grand total of zero times.  Zero.  Never.   Not once.  In fact, over those ten seasons the top spring tream has only made the playoffs five times.  Alternatively, of the 10 World Series champions, only two were able to win 20 games in the spring season, and five lost more games than they won (2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox, 2006 Red Sox, 2008 Phillies, 2011 Cardinals).

So while it may be cool to see your team in first place, don’t get too excited.

3. The games don’t count – enjoy it

That’s right – enjoy yourself.  That is what spring training is all about for a baseball fan – fun.

After being in the cold and the dark for four long months, we get to see sun, and get to hear the crack of the bat.  And while some fans will say that they can’t watch games that don’t count, I don’t buy it.  It is easier to enjoy games that don’t count!

Think about it: you don’t have to stress about a 5-game losing streak, don’t have to worry when your team blows a late lead.  “Games Back” means nothing.  Stats don’t count towards your fantasy team.  It is a worry-free time of year.

So enjoy the games, and if you ever feel yourself being sucked in to the worry that comes with being a fan, remember this:

No matter how good or how bad your team may look in March, come Opening Day, all 30 teams are tied for first.