In terms of its sports teams, Toronto is a terrible place to be.  I have written about it several times before on this site and on others, documenting the annual failure of any of our major league teams to not only bring home a championship, but to merely contend for one.

The epidemic has grown so bad that it has successfully tempered the expectations we have as fans.  Everybody in Toronto expects the Raptors to be awful and finish at or near the bottom of the standings.  Everybody expects the Leafs to shoot themselves in the foot time and time again and ultimately finish last.  We all expect Toronto FC to miss the playoffs badly, and set records of futility along the way.

That’s likely part of the reason that Toronto fans are often ridiculed by other markets for “planning the parade” at an early portion of the season.  When the Leafs were sitting first in the Northeast division and only two points back of first overall in the entire NHL at the end of November, fans were dreaming not only of playoff hockey for the first time in years, but of the Stanley Cup.  Did we actually believe the Leafs could win?  No, but since we expected them to finish last, we had to celebrate while the good times lasted.  And we did.  Then they ended…with a thud.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, the same thing has happened.  As Jays fans, we don’t expect them to finish last, but season after season we expect the same thing: patches of brilliance, patches of awfulness, and a lot of mediocrity, ultimately culminating in a .500 record, and a 4th place finish – 15-20 games behind the division champ.

But then 2012 hit, and everything changed.  Alex Anthopoulos continued to add young, high ceiling talent to his team, bringing in Sergio Santos to join the likes of Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, J.P. Arencibia, Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek, and Yunel Escobar.  Suddenly, people began to take notice of what was being built north of the border.  The Jays were no longer a perennial fourth place team, but a  bonafide contender.

And for once, it wasn’t just bloggers, fans, and team management who were saying these things.  Real, actual baseball analysts, on real, actual media outlets like CBS Sports, ESPN, Fox Sports, and Sports Illustrated were saying these things.  Many actually picked the Blue Jays to make the 2012 postseason.  Even celebrities, like the decrepit, old and withered Larry King endorsed the Jays to win the AL East.  It was something we hadn’t seen in these parts since 1993.

And quite clearly, we aren’t used to it.

Instead of elevating our moods and making fans more excited about the season, the glowing praise heaped on our team has done nothing but raise expectations – maybe to unreasonable and unrealistic levels. 

Because judging by the behaviour of many fans at the ballpark, in the streets, and on Twitter, you’d think the Toronto Blue Jays were the worst team in the history of organized sports.

I’ve been to several games at the Rogers Centre thus far, and let me tell you – there has been a ton of booing and a LOT of anger and venom thrown towards the players.  Fans are ripping into Adam Lind, booing him during every at bat, and every play in the field.  Fans booed Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar mercilessly after booting some balls last night.  People on Twitter wanted to flat out murder Francisco Cordero after his blown save last Tuesday, and tried to run Sergio Santos out of town after losing to the Red Sox in the home opener.

Why?  For no other reason than heavy expectations.  In previous seasons, when Toronto was 19-18 in mid-May, many fans looked upon that as a successful record.  “Hey, the boys are over .500!”  But now in 2012, because Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline thinks they might sneak the second wild card spot, an over .500 record is an indication that this team is overpaid, worthless, and hopeless.

Look – the Jays have been victims of several things thus far this year: slow starts from most of the hitters,  a tough few weeks from the relievers,  starting pitchers walking too many batters,  leaky infield defense over the past 10 days, and umpires who appear to be squeezing some players at the plate (see: Bill Miller and his “expanding the strike zone due to personal dislike”).  But the fact is, they are still above .500 and within striking distance of the division lead.  Sure they are struggling, sure they are having a hard time beating the Rays and Orioles, but it’s May 16th.  There is a lot of time left.

The bottom line is this: Alex Anthopoulos didn’t promise the playoffs in 2012.  Paul Beeston didn’t promise the playoffs in 2012.  John Farrell, Jose Bautista, Ricky Romero – none of them promised the playoffs in 2012 either.  This is a team building for the next few years, with a chance to win this year.

Let’s do the boys a favour: simmer down the expectations a bit and let them figure things out without the anger, the frustration, and the boo’s.

After all – expecting success is different than demanding success.  Expecting success turns a regular fan into an entitled fan.  An entitled fan, in turn, equals an annoying fan.

In other words: a Yankee fan.

photo from daylife.com

Well, that was ugly.

That was really, really ugly – and I didn’t even watch it.

For once I am thankful for a late night game on a weekday, because it prevented me from seeing with my own eyes the disaster that is Francisco “CoCo” Cordero.

Entrusted with a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the ninth, Cordero allowed 5 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks to blow his third consecutive save opportunity.  He is now 2 / 5 in save chances.

The rest of his stats are just as brutal.  Cordero is sporting a 9.53 ERA.  Only Freddy Garcia has a higher ERA in the American League for pitchers with at least 10 IP.  In terms of relief pitchers, Cordero is the worst.  Second worst is Matt Maloney from Minnesota, with an ERA of 8.18.  When it comes to WHIP, his 2.29 number is by far the worst in the AL.  He is also allowing a staggering and bewildering 15.9 hits per nine innings. 

There are other relievers who are having bad seasons in the AL.  The afforementioned Maloney is awful.  Somebody named Adam Wilk on Detroit has an 8.18 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, and 17.2 H/9 in 11 IP.

But there is a huge, huge difference between them and CoCo.  Those two aren’t trusted with closing out games.  For Toronto to continue to give the ball to the worst reliever in the American League (statistically speaking) would be ludicrous. 

We can continue to complain about Cordero, but in reality it isn’t much of a surprise.  Getting Blanked offers some insight into the blatant warning signs he showed last year in Cincinnati.  And to be fair, he wasn’t brought to Toronto to close games.  But still – enough is enough.

So what is the next move then?  If the Blue Jays find themselves wtih a one run lead this afternoon, who should they call?  With Sergio Santos not expected back for at least a few more weeks, the ball will have to be handed to somebody else – but who?

It has been said time and again that going with a closer-by-committee doesn’t work, but I can’t see why not.  The save stat is a meaningless, made up number that adds no value to the game.  All it does is force managers to structure their bullpens into rigid roles basically tying their hands.  Three run lead or less in the ninth?  He HAS to call on the closer, even if the closer has been awful.  After all – that’s what the closer is paid for.

Someday, one team will eschew that belief.  Just like Oakland revolutionized stats in the Moneyball era, just like Tampa is revolutionizing how to build a team for cheap today, one team will revolutionize the bullpen in the closer era.   So why not the Blue Jays now?   We have at least a few weeks to experiment, and if it doesn’t work then Santos will be back to reclaim his spot.

Let’s get back to the question of who.  Sorting by performance in the past 7 days, we find that Toronto’s best reliever has been Jason Frasor: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 0.86 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, .143 opponents average.  That looks pretty good. 

Think looking at the past 7 days is too shallow?  Let’s expand the sample to the past 14 days.  The top reliever then becomes Carlos Villanueva: 4.1 IP, 4 K, 0.69 WHIP, 0.00 ERA.  Again – pretty good.

So there you go – instead of using the “closer”, use the hot hand. 

Because if there’s one thing that’s obvious it’s this:

The current situation isn’t working.

CoCo is not the answer.

It was the most dominating pitching performance by a Blue Jays starter this season, and one of the most dominating in all of baseball.  Brandon Morrow simply destroyed the Angels last night.

A complete game, 3-hit shutout, with 8 strikeouts, and – most impressively – zero walks.  With the help of two double plays, Morrow faced one over the minimum, only stranded one runner, and only had one man reach second base.  He threw only 102 pitches, 75 of those going for strikes.  He threw a first pitch strike to 21 of 28 batters, and seemed to get stronger as the game went on.

In short, it was the kind of performance that fans have been expecting from Morrow.  It was the kind of performance that the Blue Jays have been expecting from Morrow.  After a bit of a slow stat to the season, is it safe to say that Brandon has finally reached his full potential?

I hope so.  But we can’t say yes just yet.

After all – we’ve seen this from Morrow before.

We’ve seen him completely befuddle the opposition only to fall flat on his face shortly thereafter.  We’ve seen him alternate great games with bad games for far too long.  Inconsistency has proven to be his downfall.

It started right away, in his first month as a Jay.  On April 19, 2010 he beat KC with a 7 inning, 1 run, 3 hit, 2 walk, 8 strikeout gem, only to follow that up with a 6 walk performance in his next start against Tampa.  He finished a good stretch in June by shutting down the Cardinals  (8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K), only to follow that start with a 6 IP, 5 R (3 earned) clunker against the Indians.  Of course his best game came in August, the complete game, one-hit, 17 K shutout in Toronto vs. the Rays. He didn’t pitch more than 6 innings the rest of the season.

In 2011, hopes were higher, but results were the same.  Nothing screamed “inconsistent” like the stretch of eight starts he made from May 26 to July 4:

May 26 – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K

May 31 – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 9 K

June 6 – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K

June 11 – 4.1 IP, 9 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 4 K

June 18 – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K

June 24 – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K

June 29 – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB 10 K

July 4 – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Up, down, up, down, repeat.  Nothing was more frustrating.  He tantalized us with his stuff, taking our breath away.  Then when we came to expect it, he punched us in the stomach with control issues and hittable pitches.  Even so, a great finish to 2011 set him, and us, up for a big 2012.

After the first three starts, it looks like Morrow has finally taken off.  In his fourth start of the season he gave up a leadoff HR in the second inning to Eric Hosmer.

That is the last run he has surrendered – 20.2 scoreless innings have followed.  His season ERA is down to 2.38.  His season WHIP is down to 0.91.  His BB/9 is the lowest it has been ever in his career.  And the strikeouts, while also down overall, are starting to creep back up: 12 in his first 4 starts, 17 in his past 2.

All the signs are there, but can he sustain it?  To be honest, we don’t need him to sustain this pace.  Complete game shutouts are always welcome, but Jays fans will be content with 7 solid innings, night after night.  With the schedule getting a bit tougher (the Jays have series ahead against the Rays, Yankees, Rangers, and Red Sox coming up) the competition will be difficult.

But Morrow seems to be getting it – opponents be damned.

Consider me a believer.

photo from Reuters Pictures via daylife.com

You’ve heard of the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.  But to describe last night’s game between the Jays and Rangers, I think we need to expand that a bit.

Last night’s game had it all: the Good, the Bad, the Ugly, the Frustrating, the Thrilling, the Relieving, the Shocking, the Depressing, and the Phenomenal.

Let’s take a look:

The Good

Drew Hutchison – except for the second inning.  The rookie got off to a blazing start, striking out the first four Rangers batters he faced.  And they were tough hitters too: Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Michael Young, and Nelson Cruz.  Hutchison pitched six innings giving up 7 hits and 2 walks – though 5 of the hits and 1 of the walks came in that second inning.  He showed great composure by shaking off the rough inning and keeping the Jays in the game through six.

The Bad

The afforementioned second inning.  Yikes.  After striking out Cruz to open the inning, Hutchison allowed a single, walk, single, run scoring single, run scoring fielder’s choice, stolen base, two run double, and a run scoring single before getting Michael Young to line out.  When the dust finally settled, Toronto was down 5 – 0.  Ouch.

The Ugly

The defense, by both teams.  Four errors were committed in the game, two by each team – and they were ugly.  Andrus and Napoli flat out dropped ground balls allowing Blue Jays to reach base.  The Jays committed errors on consecutive plays in the 4th leading to the sixth Rangers run.  Plus there were a few pitches that reached the backstop, and a couple of bobbles in the outfield.  Ugly, ugly fielding.

The Frustrating

I guess turn about is fair play.  After leading the league all year in turning defensive double plays, the Jays shot themselves in the foot by hitting into FOUR DP’s last night.  Kelly Johnson grounded into a DP in the bottom of the first.  Then, with the Jays down 5-0 in the 2nd and one on with one out, it was Thames ending the inning with a DP.  Escobar was the culprit in the 5th with the Jays down 6-4.  In the 6th, with the score the same and the Jays threatening with two on and nobody out, rally killer Adam Lind (who went 0-4 and is now down to a .203 average) hit into the tailor made DP. 

The Thrilling

What a comeback.  Down 5-0 to the best team in baseball with one of the best young power pitchers in the game on the hill was a tough spot to be.  But the Jays kept grinding, and not only shook off the early deficit, but also got past the poor defense and all the double plays to finally pull ahead in the 7th.  The best comeback of the season thus far.

The Relieving

Jose Bautista finally, FINALLY, went deep.  After a first inning strikeout in which he looked awful, Bautista followed up Johnson’s bomb in the third with a mammoth shot to the 3rd deck in LF.  It was his first HR since April 23, and he follwed that up with a walk and a deep shot to RF later in the game, showing signs that maybe, just maybe, he’s closer to regaining his silver slugger winning form.

The Shocking

Seriously guys – Craig Gentry?  He put the nail in Toronto’s coffin on Monday with a solo shot in the 7th to make it 4-1.  Then last night he drove in a run with a fielders choice in the 2nd, stole second base, and then scored on an Ian Kinsler double.  Gentry.  The last time any of us saw Gentry, he was being cut by the Cleveland Indians in the movie Major League in 1989:

The Depressing

How else to describe Francisco Cordero?  After Toronto had worked so hard to erase 5-0 and 6-4 deficits, Cordero comes into the game in the 9th and blows the save.  After retiring the first two hitters, three consecutive singles ensure that Cordero allows a run in four of his last five appearances.  He has now blown two saves and has a season ERA and WHIP 5.73 and 1.91 respectively.  You could actually both hear and feel the air go out of the stadium as Cordero colletively kicked all of us fans in the nuts.  Depressing.

The Phenomenal

Brett Lawrie.  Walk off blast.  Jays win.  All is right with the world.

Really Sports Illustrated? The old logo?

I’m used to the Blue Jays getting little to no respect from major American media outlets.  I get it – Toronto is a Canadian team that generates little buzz south of the border.  They are rarely on ESPN, rarely on the cover of video games or Sports Illustrated, and are rarely discussed on major US websites.

I’m used to it.  I think that all Jays fans are. 

But then I saw a post today at SI.com and I got a little bit offended.  The article in question is the weekly Power Rankings, and it was actually published yesterday afternoon, before the Jays won their fourth straight.  Normally a Power Rankings column is one person’s take on all 30 MLB teams, and has more to do with gut feel than with the standings.  These Power Rankings are based on the Fangraphs WAR statistic and are a bit different. 

You’ll notice from the photo above that they have the Jays ranked 20th.  If you click on the link to the article, you’ll notice that 20th puts Toronto behind power teams such as Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, the Mets, and Kansas City (KC, by the way, is ranked 7th despite having the worst record in the entire major leagues).

Since these rankings are driven by a formula instead of opinion, it’s hard to argue and get upset about where teams rank.  In fact, I’m fine with the Jays being so low.  They really haven’t played that well, the offense is struggling, starting pitchers not named Romero have been inconsistent, and the bullpen is up and down.  I feel extremely fortunate that the club is 10-6.

So, believe it or not, it’s not the 20th place ranking that gets to me.

What bothers me is this:

Sports Illustrated is a well-recognized, well-renowned, industry leader when it comes to sports media.  They are a hugely respected brand that are always on top of everything that happens in the sports world.

But SI – it is late April.  The season is almost a month old. 

You seriously can’t update the Blue Jays logo?

Talk about no damn respect.

Brutal.  Just….brutal.

As I have freely admitted before on this site, I love the Blue Jays but sadly am not super informed about the minor league system.  Don’t get me wrong – I know who Toronto’s blue chip prospects are, but wouldn’t consider myself a prospect expert.

Luckily, I know a man who is.

He is 500 Level Fan’s Ottawa correspondent specializing in the Blue Jays minor league system.  He has provided this site with extensive write-ups on the 2010 Draft, along with last year’s call up of Henderson Alvarez.  So who better to ask about tomorrow’s first major league start for Drew Hutchison than David “Willie Canate Fan” Yarwood himself?

Named Toronto’s 5th starter today, Drew Hutchison has completed a rapid rise through baseball’s minor leagues. A 15th round pick in 2009, Hutchison has only one full season of professional baseball under his belt. Hutchison started his pro career in 2010 in short-season ball, but was promoted late in the season.  Hutchison had a very successful 2011 season where he was promoted twice, reaching AA for his final three starts.   He was dominant in his brief stay at AA, striking out 21 batters in 15 innings, giving up only 10 hits, 2 BB and 2 runs.

Hutchison made a number of top prospect lists this year, but was not listed in Baseball America’s or Baseball Prospectus’ top 100.  He is not necessarily the kind of player that attracts a lot of love from prospect watchers, because his skills — control, composure, an effective changeup, fastball command — are not as highly regarded as mid to high 90s heat.  However, there are many successful MLB pitchers who can’t throw in the high 90s, but very few who can’t properly command a fastball. 

Hutchison is considered very polished for a 21 year old, with excellent fastball and change up command.  He has a developing slider that Jays coaches say improved a lot in the last year.  His fastball has good movement and sits around 90-92 mph.  In a recent interview with John Farrell, the Jays manager said the areas where Hutchison needs the most improvement are his command of his slider and ability to hold runners.

Management spoke highly of Hutchison all off-season and it is clear that he is in the team’s long-term plans, even if his arrival was somewhat sooner than expected.  Hutchison has a chance to succeed right away, but with only 31 innings pitched above A-ball, it might be a while before he is ready to stay in the majors for good.

Hutchison starts tomorrow night in Kansas City.  Good luck kid!

Through 12 games of the 2012 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays are 6-6.  They are in fourth place in the AL East, 1.5 games back of first place Baltimore (that’s not a typo – the Orioles are in first early on).

Maybe it’s the fact that the Jays dropped two straight blowouts to the Rays to end the first homestand.  Maybe it’s because they lost two of three to the Orioles.  Maybe it’s because Toronto is now under .500 at home.  I don’t know.  What I do know is that I am hearing a lot of talk in a lot of places that the Jays are up for another stinker of a season – because 12 games (which, by the way, equals 7.4% of the 2012 schedule) can foreshadow an entire season.

One thing all of those people have in common, is a two word phrase that they continuously say: slow start.  As in, the Jays are off to a slow start, or the slow start could ruin the season.

To all you panickers out there, I’m hear to talk you off the ledge.

Here are five reasons why the Toronto Blue Jays as a team, contrary to what you think, are NOT off to a slow start:

1. On the surface, it appears that the pitching staff as a whole is struggling.  Aside from a good opening weekend in Cleveland, Jays pitchers not named Romero and Drabek haven’t been firing on all cylinders.  The entire staff has allowed 50 walks, second most in the American League.  They have also allowed 20 HR, tied for most in the AL.  The bullpen specifically – yes, the remade, new and improved bullpen – is having a tough time.  A 4.76 ERA is 10th in the AL, 23 walks are the most in the AL, a K/BB ratio of 1.74 ranks third last, and 4 blown saves are a league worst.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story.  The staff has only allowed 92 hits, tied with the Chicago for the fewest hits allowed, but the H/9 ratio is better due to all the extra inning games they’ve played.  They are also better than league average in WHIP, and ERA+.  One rocky start for Morrow and Alvarez, and a few bad 9th innings (two of which happened when the game was pretty much out of reach anyways) have negatively skewed the stats. 

2. Toronto’s offense appears to be struggling too.  Bautista only has 2 HR.  Arencibia only raised his average above .100 yesterday, and Rasmus only recently raised his average above .200.  Kelly Johnson is tied for 9th in the AL in strikeouts.

But here’s what you might not know.  Bautista is tied for the AL lead with 11 walks, showing that he hasn’t lost his eye at the plate and that he’s still getting on base (he’s actually 22nd in the AL in OBP, ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez).  Encarnacion is in the top-20 in OPS.  As a team they are better than league average in HR, runs per game, and walks.  For all the grief that everybody gives Adam Lind, Toronto’s first basemen have combined for a .864 OPS, good for 5th in the AL – and that is mostly Lind.

3. Advanced fielding metrics are hard to trust, but for what it’s worth, baseball reference has the Jays as the best defensive team in the AL – by a mile.  Toronto’s defensive efficiency is .761, 1st in the league and way ahead of 2nd place Oakland.  More telling is the Total Fielding Runs Above Average stat, which shows the Jays at +22.  Second place is Oakland at +11.  The league average is +2. (For reference purposes, the Yankees are dead last at -12).

4.  If you would have told me before the season started that through 12 games Bautista would have 2 HR and would be hitting in the low .200′s, that Arencibia, Rasmus, and Thames would be having a tough time, that the bullpen would implode a few times, and that Morrow would be off to a rough season through 3 starts, yet we’d still be .500 I would have taken it in a heartbeat.  Especially considering the schedule.  Cleveland, Tampa, and Boston combined to finish 36 games over .500 last year, and the Orioles were off to a great start (first place tie!) when the Jays played them.  Looking at that, I’m surprised we aren’t 4-8 or 3-9.

5. If, after all this, you still think the Jays are off to a slow start, I ask you to look around baseball.

The Angels, the team that made the biggest splash in free agency, signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, are 4-9 – dead last in the AL West.

Boston, the powerful, fully loaded Red Sox, is decimated by injuries and sit 4-8 – dead last in the AL East.

The Phillies, lead by the best top-3 starting pitcher combo in the game, are 6-7 – dead last in the NL East.

The Cincinnati Reds, the pick of many pundits to win the NL Central, are 5-8 and below the Pirates in the standings.  The defending Central champion Brewers are also under .500.

San Francisco, lead by Tim Lincecum’s 10.54 ERA, are also at 6-6 and already 3.5 GB of the Dodgers.

So relax fans.  Things aren’t as bad as they seem.  All things considered, I’m glad Toronto is .500.

Stay tuned – this team is getting set to explode.

(from daylife.com)

Due to a high level of tiredness from Tuesday night’s game (which resulted in multiple beers and a very late bed time), I decided to skip last night’s game and watch from my couch.

Turned out to be a good move.

The Jays didn’t just lose the game.  They were destroyed.  Completely and utterly destroyed.  The ten run loss was the largest of this young season (by far) and the largest since September 13 of last year.

There some good things that happened, if you’re a glass-full kind of guy.  Jose Bautista continued to rebound from his brutal start with a 1 for 3  game that included two walks.  His OPS is now up to .783.  Edwin Encarnacion (from now on referred to as EFMEE – Everybody’s Favourite Man Edwin Encarnacion), had two more hits to raise his average to .283.  Brett Lawrie stretched his hitting streak to five straight games, and Yunel Escobar spanked four hits and is now 7 for his past 14 at-bats. 

Yes Carlos Villanueva had a rough day, but it was his first appearance since the opening series in Cleveland, and let’s be honest:  I would rather a reliever come into the game and allow six runs in the ninth when we’re already down by four than a reliever allow six when we’re up by four.  A loss is a loss – who cares by how much.

If there was anything troubling about last night it’s this: Brandon Morrow looked bad.  6 IP, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 HR, and only 2 K.  He has three starts so far in 2012 – one good, one decent, and one bad.  His ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 ratios are all better than they were in 2011 thus far, but unfortunately his K/9 is substantially worse, and he has allowed a league worst 6 HR. 

It is early, and I still believe that Morrow will put it all together this year.  But for a guy who has struggled with consistency in his career, that is not the kind of trend we want to see.

Looking at the pitching matchups in advance of the series and seeing career Blue Jay killer David Price slated to start last night, I think most people expected that if the Jays were going to lose a game in the series it would be that one . Well, they did.

Now- let’s move on.  First place awaits.

“When you have the opportunity, you strike,” – Rod Laver

It is often said that opportunity seldom knocks twice.  When you get the chance to do something great, take it – that chance might never come again.

In sports, one of the most famous examples of this took place on June 2, 1925, when a struggling New York Yankees team sat slumping first baseman Wally Pipp in favour of Lou Gehrig.  Recognizing his chance may have finally come, Gehrig went on to play 2,129 more games consecutively on his way to the Hall of Fame. 

There are also two big examples in recent Toronto sporting history that apply.  In 1992, Felix Potvin replaced struggling future Hall of Famer Grant Fuhr between the Leafs pipes, and ended up leading Toronto to back-to-back Conference Finals.  In September of 2009, a career underachiever who had bounced around several teams was finally given a chance to be an everyday regular.  Two and a half years later, Jose Bautista is the back-to-back Home Run King and one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

So how does this apply to the Blue Jays in 2012?

The answer is easy.  When it comes to professional sports, Toronto is a wasteland, a desolate, grey graveyard of past success and little hope for the future.

The Maple Leafs have now missed the NHL Playoffs for seven consecutive seasons, by far the longest stretch in the history of the franchise.  This past year was arguably the worst yet, a season that offered a glimmer of hope punctuated by one of the worst collapses the team has ever seen: a 7-18-4 finish to drop from 6th to 13th in the conference.  What’s more, for the first time that I can remember, fans are turning on the Leafs.  They are no longer a guaranteed sellout that carry a certain “all will be forgiven” stigma with fans.  Chants of “Let’s go Blue Jays” at the ACC, along with a cavalcade of boo’s aimed at Joffrey Lupul on Wednesday when he made an appearance at the dome prove that.

The NBA playoffs are just around the corner, but the Raptors will be nowhere near the postseason, a 20-39 record burying them in 13th place in the East.  The team is still somehow averaging just under 17,000 per game, but on most nights the fans are there to see the opposition, not the Raptors.  Even looking around the streets, how often do you see a Raptors hat / jersey / t-shirt?  Not very often.  Four straight years out of the playoffs, three playoff wins in the past 10 years, and only one series win in franchise history will do that.

The third jewel in the MLSE crown, Toronto FC, have turned from a novelty to an embarrassment.  Don’t get me wrong – I love soccer, and I love the FC, but come on.  The team has never made the playoffs in its existence, and is currently sitting dead last in the entire league at 0-4, the only team without a point (and with a -7 goal difference to boot).  Perhaps the most telling thing about fan interest in TFC is this: I can now buy a ticket.  After several years of full sellouts, that is a bad sign.

Toronto has two other teams, but the Argos have been going backwards for years, and while the Rock are a good team, lacrosse has not yet become a mainstream sport.

So where does that leave us?

In my mind, that leaves a huge city, the biggest city in Canada with over 2.5 million people (and almost 6 million in the GTA) without a sports identity.  That leaves a city that loves to win, with a hunger for championships, with a collection of losing teams to root for.  That leaves a lot of disillusioned and jaded fans looking for something new.

And that, my friends, is the opportunity that the Blue Jays need. 

There was a time when the Jays didn’t need others to fail in order to succeed.  They were the toast of the town from the mid-80′s to the mid-90′s, but a series of lean years and an 18 year playoff drought have eroded the fanbase.  Past management have tried to increase interest by bringing in big names (Jose Canseco, Roger Clemens, Frank Thomas), big contracts (B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett), and big wastes (John Thomson, Tomo Ohka, Josh Towers).  But it took a young GM to realize what his predecessors didn’t.  Toronto fans want to win, yes, but they also want to identify with their team.  When players spend their free time injecting each other with steroids, or demanding trades, or wishing they were elsewhere, fans won’t embrace them.

What Alex Anthopoulos has assembled is more than just a team that has a chance to succeed this year.  It is also more than just a team that has a chance to succeed next year and the year after that.  The 2012 Toronto Blue Jays is a young team that a) is excited to play baseball, b) is excited to play baseball with each other, and c) is excited to play baseball in Toronto.  Players walk around town like anybody else, hitting up local restaurants like normal people, talking to fans instead of hiding.  Social media sites like Twitter have played a huge part in connecting fans to players, and kudos for Toronto’s front office for not banning players from Twitter like some others might.

The Jays have seen an enormous opportunity and have jumped right into it.  The new logo and uniforms was beautifully timed, and has been a huge success.  I see hundreds and hundreds of Jays caps around the city each and every day, and probably 75% of the fans at Tuesday night’s game wore something with the new logo. 

So far, things look like they are paying off.  A sold out home opener.  Over 26,000 in attendance on a cold, rainy Tuesday night, and over 25,000 at a 12:30 game on a Wednesday afternoon.  Yes the Red Sox were in town, which normally inflates attendance stats a bit, but I swear that the number of Jays fans FAR outnumbered the Bostonians on Tuesday.

Times are changing.  Whether or not the Blue Jays can keep up the pace and challenge for a division title and a World Series this year remains to be seen.

But by the end of the year Toronto might no longer be Leafs-Town. 

It might be a Blue Jays City.

For those of you who want to jump out of a building after yesterday’s tough loss, for those of you who want to crucify Sergio Santos after blowing the save to the hated Red Sox, and for those of you who are ready to write off 2012 as another lost season, I beg you to please read on.

The following items are cold, hard, and sad facts:

1. Our new closer, the man who was going to shore up the bullpen, is 0 / 2 in save opportunities, has an ERA of 15.43, a WHIP of 3.00, has allowed 4 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks with only 1 strikeout in 2.1 IP.  He’s also thrown a wild pitch. 

Should this be cause for concern?

No. 

Why? Because friends…it’s early.

2. Last year the Jays blew 25 saves.  This year they have already blown 2, meaning they have already reached 8% of last year’s total in only 2.47% of the schedule.

Should this be cause for concern?

No.  Why?  Because friends…it’s early.

3. The Blue Jays have played 46 innings (the equivalent of just over 5 games) and have only scored 19 runs.  They only have 32 hits, have only drawn 16 walks, and have 39 strikeouts.  They have only managed to score in 9 innings (19.5% of innings played), and have only plated multiple runs in 6 innings (13% of innings played).

Of the starting nine, only Kelly Johnson has a batting average above .300.  Five of the nine are currently below the Mendoza line.  The Jays have hit only three HR as a team.  Only two starters have an OPS above .650.  Since Opening Day, Jose Bautista is 1 for 12 with 2 BB, 0 RBI, and 0 runs scored.

Should this be cause for concern?

No, because again…it’s early.

Do I wish that Santos would have nailed down that win last night?  Of course.  The Jays could easily be 3-1 right now, with a three game lead on Boston. 

But do me favour:  step back and answer this question.

If I would have told you last week, that our closer would blow two saves, our ace would be roughed up early in the season opener, our offense would be sputtering to the point where a 36-year old reliever named Scott Atchison with a career ERA of over 4 completely shut us down for three innings, and the second best OPS on the team belongs to Jeff Mathis, would you have taken a 2-2 start to the season?

Thought so.

Relax friends.

It’s early.

Things will get better.

Santos will be fine – that’s a 500 Level Fan guarantee!