Opening Day is here….and it is glorious.

Not since my days as a kid have I been this excited about a Blue Jays season.  And for the first time in quite a while, many baseball experts are just as excited as I am.  Both Jayson Stark of ESPN and Scott Miller of CBS Sports pick Toronto to take advantage of the second Wild Card and make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.  Amazing.

But you can read about those predictions, and others, elsewhere.

Here, you will get the terrible predictions of a buffoon.  But if there’s one thing going for me it’s this: I can’t get any worse than last year.

Today 500 Level Fan wraps up the set of season prediction columns with a look at the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays.

Here are 24 predictions about Toronto’s upcoming season.  Some are standard and some are off-the-wall, bet we can all rest assured on one thing – MOST will be wrong.

1. Toronto will win 87 games and finish ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East.  The Wild Card might be a stretch, but they’ll be close.

2. Jose Bautista will once again eclipse the 50 HR mark, finishing with 51.

3. Colby Rasmus has the kind of breakout year that was projected for him years ago, finishing with a .280+ average, 25 HR, and a high .800’s OPS.

4. Yunel Escobar wins the Gold Glove for AL SS.

5. 500 Level Fan’s favourite Edwin Encarnacion hits over 30 HR and moves into the cleanup role behind Bautista by May.

6. Brandon Morrow leads the league in strikeouts, stays healthy, and stays consistent, finishing the season as one of the top pitchers in the AL.

7. Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez stay firmly entrenched in the rotation, but the final two spots remain in turmoil until rookie Drew Hutchinson is called up in July and brings stability to the back end.

8. Rajai Davis becomes a surprisingly effective bench player.

9. Ben Francisco does not.

10. The bullpen, Toronto’s Achilles heel in 2011, is vastly improved, and finished with the best ERA in the entire American League.

11. Sergio Santos finishes second in the AL in saves, and first in K/9 for relievers.

12. By the end of the season, Jessie Litsch, Adam Lind, and Travis Snider are no longer members of the Toronto Blue Jays organization.

13. Ricky Romero wins 20 games.

14. Omar Vizquel, in an incredible performance, hits for the cycle – the home run will be his only bomb of the season.

15. Brett Lawrie continues where he left off last season, and is elected as a starter for the AL in the All-Star game.

16. As a reliever, Casey Janssen puts together a scoreless innings streak of 29.

17. With Philadelphia in town again (from June 15-17), Jose Bautista repeats 2011 by launching a massive HR off Roy Halladay.  Unlike last year, the Blue Jays actually win the game.

18. The Jays continue their dominance over the Orioles by posting a 16-2 record against them.

19. Alex Anthopoulos makes a daring trade in July finally parting with one of Toronto’s blue chip prospects for a bona fide major league star.

20. Henderson Alvarez throws a one-hit shutout – twice.

21. Travis d’Arnaud makes an appearance in the big leagues before the season is finished.  Other top prospects, including Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick, do not.

22. Of the three major additions to the AL, Toronto shuts down Prince Fielder, knocks around Yu Darvish, but has a tough time with Albert Pujols – as does the rest of the American League.

23.  Eric Thames survives the entire season in LF and has a nice all-around season.  His highlight comes in August when he puts together a 15-game hitting streak and has a 3-HR game.

24. Toronto’s second last series of the season, a 4-game home set against the Yankees, is the biggest September series since the early ‘90’s, with the AL’s second Wild Card birth at stake.  All four games are sold out.

Happy 2012 everybody!

As my loyal readers might have noticed (all three of you), the activity here at 500 Level Fan has been a bit slow as of late.  That’s not because I’ve had enough of the blog.  It’s not because I’m losing my love for the Jays.  No, it’s mainly because I’m not really a Spring Training kind of guy. 

Don’t get me wrong – I’m excited that baseball is back. Thrilled really.  But the spring games are kind of lost on me.  Things would be totally different if I was in Dunedin (which hopefully happens next year.  #Dunedin2013!).  I would be all over the games, constantly at or around the field.  But it’s just hard for me to get excited about the game here.  It’s tough to listen to them on the radio because the players don’t really play all that hard, and the announcers spend a lot of time talking about things other than the actual game.  It’s impossible to watch them on TV – a lot of times it looks like the games are being filmed on a cell phone camera.  And it’s hard to be excited about the results, because for the most part they’re meaningless.

But screw it.

I’m going to have some fun with the spring stats now, just because I can.

Here are six things we know – 100% for certain – so far:

1. We won the Sergio Santos – Nestor Molina trade….by a mile

Nestor Molina: 0-1, 5 ER in 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 5.25 WHIP, .700 opponents average

Sergio Santos: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, .000 opponents average

An absolute steal by AA.

2. Travis Snider wins the LF job

Snider: .267 average, 1.000 OPS, 2 HR, 6 RBI

Thames: .250 average, .750 OPS, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Mission accomplished.

3. Kyle Drabek is a lost cause

Three innings pitched.  Three earned runs.  9.00 ERA.  2 walks.  .364 opponents average.  Release him!

4. The Colby Rasmus trade looks worse and worse

First St. Louis won the World Series last year.  Now Marc Rzepczynski has a 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, and a 18.00 K/9 ratio!  And Colby Rasmus is only hitting .222!  Failure!

5. Signing Omar Vizquel was a terrible move

Omar was brought in primarily for his defense.  Yet he already has an error and a ghastly .750 fielding percentage!  Horrendous!

6. The Second Wild Card is ours

Looks like the Yankees are aging fast and that Tampa Bay isn’t as good as expected.  They have a combined winning percentage of .308 – much closer to last than first. 

So there you go. 

Lesson 101 on how meaningless spring stats are.

Bring on the real games.

Since it has been made (virtually) official, I have been asked many times what my thoughts are about the extra Wild Card spot for 2012.

Here is a quick summary:

Do I like it?  Yes.

Do I think the concept is good?  Yes.

Do I think the way that it will be implemented is good?  No.  Not even close.

Let me explain.  I like the idea of another Wild Card team making the playoffs for two reasons.  1) it gives other teams a chance, especially those stuck in the East divisions.  The Yankees and Red Sox are obviously beasts, and now Tampa has turned into one as well.  In the NL East, all of a sudden Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta, and Miami are power clubs.  2) it gives teams more incentive to win their Division.  Suddenly a Division title means something again.

But here’s the kicker.  I hate the Wild Card “playoff series”.  A one-game playoff?  That’s it?  That is the incentive for 162 games of hard work?

Yes I get it.  MLB wants to add more drama wherever possible.  A one-game playoff does that.  There is nothing more exciting than a win-or-go-home scenario.  It’s like having two guaranteed game 7′s every year!

But is it fair?  I think not.  It’s not fair to the two Wild Card teams, and it’s certainly not fair to the Division champions.  Baseball is a team sport and a sport built on longevity.  The season is 162 games long.  It consists of 6 months of three and four game series to determine the best teams.  Now, one game will decide the first round?  Anything can happen in one game.  Baseball prides itself on the “series” concept of the schedule, and now, in the most important part of the season, they’re taking that away.

It’s also not fair to the Division champs because they should get a reward for winning the Division. That reward should be a few days of rest and the chance to face the winner of the Wild Card round.  That winner should be tired and weak from having to play extra games.  But since they only have to play one extra game, there isn’t much of an advantage.  The winner will still be able to throw their #2 starter out for game 1 of the Division Series, instead of possibly their fourth.  That means Toronto, if they get in and win, can start Brandon Morrow instead of Brett Cecil, the Angels can start C.J. Wilson instead of Ervin Santana, or the Red Sox can start Josh Beckett instead of Alfredo Aceves.  Those are HUGE advantages.

If the Wild Card round was a 3-game series I would be in love with it.  As it stands, I am now rooting for the Jays to earn the second Wild Card, which might not even bring a home playoff game.

The incentive isn’t as great as it should be.

“Potential means you ain’t done it yet.” – Darrell Royal, Head Coach University of Texas Football (1957-1976)

What exactly is potential, and why do we dwell on it so much in sports?  According to Oxford Dictionaries Online, potential is defined as “having or showing the capacity to become or develop into something in the future” (adjective) or “latent qualities or abilities that may be developed and lead to future success or usefulness” (noun).

In its most basic form, I would describe potential as untapped or unmet future expectations.  We hear about it so often in sports that it has become second nature.  For instance: Phil Kessel has the “potential” to be a 50-goal scorer in the NHL; Justin Verlander has the “potential” to throw a no-hitter in each and every start; Bryce Harper has so much “potential” that he might be a big league force at 19-years old.

Of course for a Toronto Blue Jay fan, potential is a word that comes with loads of doubt.  For years we have been told about several key prospects who were loaded with potential.  For years the fan base has become excited about this player who has the potential to become the next Gary Carter (Kevin Cash, Guillermo Quiroz, Angel Martinez), or that player who has the potential to become the next Cal Ripken or Ozzie Smith (Alex Gonzalez). 

More often than not, as per the cases above, the excitment didn’t pay off.  Not even close.

Potential has always been a sticking point for the Blue Jays, even going way back in franchise history.  A good proxy to use as an indicator of potential is the draft, espeically the first round of the draft.  In order for a player to be a first round draft choice, he has to be special.  The team that drafts him must believe not only that the kid is a good player, but that he has the “potential” to be a future major league star.  Why else take him with your first pick?  A quick glance at Toronto’s history of first round draft choices will show a huge disconnect between potential and results:

- In 1979 Toronto drafted Jay Schroeder 3rd overall

- 1980: drafted Garry Harris 2nd overall

- 1981: drafted Matt Williams (pitcher, not the slugger) 5th overall

- 1982: drafted Augie Schmidt 2nd overall

More recent drafts also show the same issue.  From 1998 – 2004 the Jays first round picks were as follows: Felipe Lopez, Alex Rios, Miguel Negron, Gabe Gross, Russ Adams, Aaron Hiill, and David Purcey.  Aside from one or two decent years from Hill and Rios, those players never lived up to their potential.  Looking back at those drafts is especially painful when you realize who was still available when Toronto chose the players they did: Tony Gwynn in 1981, Dwight Gooden in 1982, David Wright in 2001, Cole Hamels in 2002, and Dustin Pedroia in 2004.

I know that the same exercise can be done for other teams, with other draft misses thrown into the mix.  This is not meant to be an investigation into the poor drafting of the Blue Jays.  The baseball draft is a crapshoot – everybody knows it.

No, this is meant to be an exploration of potential and how we evaluate it.  Because right now, there are four very important players in Toronto’s spring camp that have a ton of potential.

Those players are Travis Snider, Colby Rasmus, Kyle Drabek, and Brandon Morrow.

Travis Snider and Colby Rasmus are loaded with potential, the potential to be future All-Stars in the outfield and to hit 30+ HR each year.  Drabek and Morrow have the potential to be top-of-the-rotation starters for the next decade – their stuff is that good.

It’s not only me who thinks so either.  Baseball America ranked Snider the 6th best prospect in all of baseball in 2009 and Rasmus was #3; Kyle Drabek was listed at #25 in 2010; Brandon Morrow was #87 in 2007.  The Blue Jays front office also thought quite highly of these four, drafting Snider 14th overall in ’06, and trading a future All-Star (Brandon League), the face of the franchise (Roy Halladay) and five players from the major league roster in two trades (Corey Patterson, Jason Frasor, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Zach Stewart) for Morrow, Drabek, and Rasmus respectively.  That is a lot.

But so far, the results have been far less than desired.  Snider and Drabek have struggled mightily in their limited exposure to the big leagues, as has been well documented.  Morrow has been wildly inconsistent, showing only glimpses of the dominating brilliance he appears to be capable of.  Rasmus only had a cup of coffee with the Jays last year, but had a bad year overall and looks nowhere near the #3 prospect he was pegged to be.

Which leads me to the entire point of this post.  What is the potential of these four guys at the present time, and what does it mean?   Should they still be considered as top-of-the-line major league talents that are ready to explode and lead the Jays?  Or should we temper our expectations a bit?  And if so, by how much?

For anybody who regularly reads this site, you will know that I am still very high on Rasmus and Morrow.  I think both are primed for a big year, so the potential for me is still there.  But I’m lost on what to think about Snider and Drabek.  Clearly neither remains a top-25 prospect.  That ship has sailed, floating away on a tide of underwhelming stints in the majors.  I don’t think Travis Snider should be thought of as a 35-HR threat, and Drabek as a 20-win, 200 strikeout, low 2.00 ERA ace – which many might have thought of them before. 

More realistic expectations?  Hard to say, because neither are likely to make the team out of spring training.  But would a full season of decent play by Snider and numbers equal to a #3 or #4 starter for Drabek suffice?  Or would they still be considered failures?

The bottom line is that I would much rather have a player with “potential” then one without, but there comes a time when that player must translate that potential into tangible, on-field results.  As Darrell Royal said at the beginning of this post, potential means you ain’t done it yet.

For our four Jays, that rings true.  They just have to be careful that the “ain’t done it yet” doesn’t turn into a “never did it.”

It’s a glorious time of year: Spring Training has arrived!

With the Jays set to hold their first team workouts later today, I thought I’d take a look at Toronto’s major storylines heading into the spring and the 2012 season in general.

Presented in no particular order, here are the five biggest questions facing Toronto, and my view on what will happen.  These are not necessarily going to be answered in the spring, but will definitely be talked about.

Story: Who plays left field?

Issue: It looks like a two-horse race between Eric Thames and Travis Snider, with Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis likely relegated to bench status.  Snider has been a top prospect for what seems like an eternity with the Blue Jays, but has failed to live up to expectations.  To be fair, he hasn’t been given much of a chance (24 games in ’08, 77 in ’09, 82 in ’10, and 49 in ’11) with injuries and demotions limiting his playing time.  The Jays made it seem like they would give him a full year at the big league level last year, only to pull the rug out from under him in late April and ship him off to Vegas. 

Thames made his major league debut in May last year and had a pretty good 95 games (.262/.313/.456/.769).  His patience at the plate needs to improve (only 23 walks in 392 plate appearances), but he showed a decent amount of pop, hitting 12 HR.

My View: Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Snider is still only 24 years old, and is actually a year younger than Thames.  I would love to see Travis figure it out and stick with the big club, but I don’t think that will happen at the beginning of the season.  I bet that Thames wins the job out of spring training and earns the first crack at major league success.  Two reasons why I think this: 1) the Jays front office and manager have already gone on record to say that Thames has a slight advantage in the battle, and 2) Thames was taken on the Jays Winter Tour to meet and greet fans, while Snider wasn’t. 

I still believe in Travis, but he’ll have to wait a bit longer.

Story: What Colby Rasmus shows up?

Issue: In 2009, Baseball America ranked Colby Rasmus as the #3 prospect in all of baseball.  In his first two seasons he showed great promise, finishing 8th in NL ROY voting in ’09, then blasting 23 HR with an .859 OPS in his sophomore season.  But things fell apart for him last year.  He was the subject of negative press in St .Louis about his attitude, and feuded with manager Tony La Russa.  Upon being traded to Toronto, he hurt his wrist and only managed a paltry .173 average and .517 OPS in 35 games.  A small sample size, but also very troubling and worrisome results.  So what Colby Rasmus will emerge for Toronto in 2012: the uber-prospect dripping with potential, or the underachieving enigma? 

My View: I’m not ready to give up on Colby.  I think he is in store for a big year, one that will restore faith in him.  It might not be a 35 HR, .350 average type of year, but a good, solid season (20 HR, .800 + OPS).  Dealing with the negativity that surrounded him, and then adding a trade and an injury to that was a pretty serious burden in 2011, one that would impact the performance of many players.  The main reason I see him having a good year is hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.  In 2010 the Jays had a player on the roster who was a career underachiever.  Entering the 2010 season he had a career .729 OPS and had disappointed fans for several years.  Then he worked with Dwayne Murphy and emerged into the most complete hitter in the major leagues.  I’m not saying Rasmus will follow Jose Bautista, but I think Murphy might be able to push him on the same path. 

Story: Who pitches in the starting rotation?

Issue: With Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Henderson Alvarez likely locked into the top three spots, the big question is who fills the fourth and fifth.  Early speculation has Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan taking the mound, but both of those guys have a ton of question marks surrounding them.  Cecil took a step back last year and McGowan missed two years with injuries.  Will Cecil rebound?  Can McGowan stay healthy?  Or will Kyle Drabek, Jessie Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, or maybe even a rookie like Drew Hutchinson or Deck McGuire get a shot?

My View: Brett Cecil will likely start the season in the rotation.  He has prior experience, he’s left handed, and he seems to be in the Jays future plans.  McGowan is out of options meaning he can’t be sent down without being exposed to waivers.  For that reason I can see him starting the season in the rotation.  However, I think Litsch or Villanueva will ultimately get that spot, with McGowan heading to the bullpen. 

Story: Will Brandon Morrow finally put it all together?

Issue: Morrow is one of Toronto’s most dominating – and frustrating – starting pitchers. He can pitch an 8-inning gem with three hits, no runs, and 12 strikeouts, then follow it up with a 3-inning, 6 run disaster.  Now, fresh off a contract extension, and with the weight of being the Jays number two starter, will Morrow be able to harness his potential and pitch like the ace that he has the ability to be?

My View: In short, yes.  Morrow reduced his walk rate last year, and kept up his lofty strikeout rates, a very encouraging sign.  He also comes to camp knowing that he will be a full time starter with no restrictions – no threats of a bullpen demotion, and no innings limits.  This is his year.

Story: Will J.P. Arencibia be behind the plate for a full season?

Issue: Arencibia is one of the American League’s most promising young catchers.  He has elite power, and his defensive play improved a great deal last year.  There are two problems, however.  One is that when he isn’t hitting home runs, he doesn’t do much else.  A .282 OBP with 133 strikeouts in 486 plate appearances last year is not good.  The second problem is that Toronto’s top prospect is Travis D’Arnaud, who is projecting to be an elite major league player.  D’Arnaud also plays the catcher position.  Uh-oh.  If JPA can’t improve at the plate, he might be watching D’Arnaud take his starting spot.

My View: He has a career .319 OBP in the minors, including a .359 OBP in his final season in AAA Vegas, so it’s not like he can’t hit.  But there is a big difference between the minors and the majors, and to this point nothing suggests that Arencibia will be able to do enough to remain Toronto’s catcher of the future.  I hope I’m wrong, but I can see a scenario with JPA starting the year as a Jay and finishing it somewhere else.

Back in early November I posted my annual Free Agency prediction column where I intelligently prognosticated guessed where 10 of the top free agents in baseball would end up.  You can read the original post here.  With spring training just around the corner, I thought now would be a good time to take a look back and see how many I got right.

As usual, I didn’t do well…

The “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” Division

Albert Pujols

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Actual: Los Angeles Angels

I still find it shocking that he left St. Louis, the city that treated him like gold from the moment he arrived and where he won two World Series rings.  Money talks though, and it’s tough to say no to a quarter of a billion dollars.  I’m pretty sure I wasn’t alone in thinking he’d re-sign.

Heath Bell

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Actual: Miami Marlins

Still seems weird to call them the “Miami” Marlins, and not the Florida Marlins.  After hearing for so long that he didn’t want to leave and that he’d take a hometown discount to stay, Bell bolted for Miami and a huge (and hugely awful) 3-year $27-million contract.  It might hurt on the field, but at that price San Diego is much better off without him.

The “I Guess I’ll Stay” Division

Jonathan Papelbon

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Actual: Philadelphia Phillies

In what was perhaps the worst of any free agent contract, the Phillies will pay Papelbon $50-million over four years.  This was made to look even worse when Ryan Madson, Philly’s 2011 closer, signed a 1-year $8.5-million deal with the Reds not long after.  I thought Boston would do everything they could to keep him, but the new front office apparently had no interest.  For once, I agree with the Red Soc.

Carlos Beltran

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Actual: St. Louis Cardinals

From what I heard, the Giants might have never been a factor in signing him, which is a bit strange considering all the run production they lack.  If Pujols would have stayed, Beltran never would have signed with St. Louis (and neither would anybody else for the next 10 years at that price), but credit the Cardinals for doing what they could to fill his shoes.

Jimmy Rollins

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Actual: Philadelphia Phillies

Hey, hey!  I got one right!  In reality, this was almost a no-brainer.  There was no way Rollins was ever going anywhere. 

The Logical Train of Thought Division

David Ortiz

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Actual: Boston Red Sox

I believed the hype that Ortiz would join his buddy Jose Bautista in Toronto.  That likely was never going to happen, with the threat of him moving simply driving up the price.  Ortiz is a Boston lifer.

C.J. Wilson

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Actual: Los Angeles Angels

Nailed another one.  If anybody was going to overpay for C.J. I guessed it would be the Angels, for two reasons: 1 – they needed to make a splash after missing the playoffs, and 2 – signing Wilson would directly hurt division rival Texas.  I was bang on (for a change).

The “I Have Absolutely No Idea” Division

Aramis Ramirez

Prediction: Miami Marlins

Actual: Milwaukee Brewers

Question: if Ryan Braun wouldn’t have been hit with a (potential) 50-game suspension, would the Brewers have made this move?  We knew they had to do something to replace Prince, but losing Braun might have pushed them harder.  Who knows.  I envisioned him jumping on board with the Marlins, who needed a third baseman at the time.  With a cantankerous Hanley Ramirez waffling on whether or not he wants to play 3B, maybe they still do…

Jose Reyes

Prediction: Washington Nationals

Actual: Miami Marlins

Washington seemed ready to make a splash in free agency, and I thought Reyes was the guy.  I was wrong.  However, I did predict that somebody would overpay him to stay in the NL East.  I was right about that.  Thank you Marlins.

Prince Fielder

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Actual: Detroit Tigers

I think it’s fair to say that nobody expected Detroit to be in the mix for Prince.  And to be fair, if Victor Martinez wouldn’t have injured himself, I don’t think they would have been.  But things happen, and credit the Tigers for reacting fast and filling a huge hole.  Unfortunately for them, I have a good feeling that the 9-year $214-million deal won’t look nearly this good a few years down the road.

How did I do? 

2 for 10. 

Hang your head 500 Level Fan…

It was announced yesterday that Casey Janssen signed a two year contract extension with Toronto, keeping him with the club through 2013 (with a team option for 2014).

On the surface, the deal doesn’t appear to be groundbreaking.  Janssen isn’t a closer – he isn’t even a regular set-up man – so why should fans be excited?  Signing a bullpen arm, unless they are a big name closer, rarely makes waves.  It rarely even makes ripples.

But Janssen is different.  In my opinion he is Toronto’s best reliever.  It might shock some to hear me say that.  After all, you’re not going to see him on the highlight reels.  He doesn’t pile up saves.  He doesn’t throw 100 miles-per-hour.  He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys like other relievers. 

So why do I think he’s the best?  It’s precisely because you don’t see him on the highlight reels.  Relief pitchers are an awful lot like referees and umpires – you only hear about them when they do a bad job.  For the most part, the only baseball umpires, or hockey/football/basketball/soccer refs that make the news are those that blow calls, miss offsides, etc.  Similarly, the only time non-closers really make the highlights are when they are falling apart and blowing games.

Janssen doesn’t do that.  In the past few years he has developed into a model of consistency.  And coming out of a Blue Jays bullpen that has featured guys like Kevin Gregg, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Shawn Camp the past few years, consistency is VERY important.

After missing the entire 2008 season due to injury, Janssen has slowly clawed his back into relevance.  From ’09 (when he was tested as a starter for five games) to ’11, his ERA has dropped each year (5.85 to 3.67 to 2.26).  That 2.26 ERA was second best out of Toronto’s bullpen last year, only bettered by Carlos Villanueva’s 1.60 – but CV only pitched 33.2 innings out the ‘pen.

In terms of the entire American League, Janssen ranks favourably as well. There were a total of 55 relievers who threw a minimun of 50 IP in 2011.  Janssen’s 2.26 ERA was 10th best (7th best among non-closers).  His 1.10 WHIP ranked 15th (11th among non-closers), and his K/BB ratio of 3.79 was good enough for 8th in the AL (4th among non-closers):

For the devils advocates out there, there is an easy counter-argument to the above tables, and it is this: guys like Uehara, Robertson, Rivera, Papelbon, League, and the rest, are closers and set-up guys.  As such, they inherently face higher leverage situations, meaning the innings they pitch are more difficult.  For a lot of situations this is true, but it also doesn’t mean that Janssen simply pitches in blowouts.  Looking at Baseball Reference’s leverage index, about a third of the batters that Janssen faced were in high leverage situations.  Yes a typical closer will face about 45% of batter in high leverage situations, but the difference isn’t as pronounced as you might think.  Sometimes the key moment in a game is in the 6th or 7th innings.

In those high leverage situations, Janssen was outstanding: 8.00 K/BB ratio, .123 Batting Average Against, and a .412 OPS against.  Nails.

But at the end of the day, the main reason I’m so excited to have Janssen on board for two + years is his consistency.  In 2011, he made 55 appearances.  He allowed an earned run in only nine of those appearances, and he allowed more than one earned run in only three of them.  That means that 84% of the time, Janssen made a scoreless appearance.  For a guy responsible for bridging the gap between starter and closer, that’s all you can ask for.

Welcome back Casey.

It’s a script that is often written in Hollywood.  A man falls in love but continually gets his heart broken.  After several repeated attempts, it comes down to one final push, one final shot at finding love.  I could be talking about a romantic comedy, about a chick flick, or about everybody’s least favourite show the Bachelor.

But I’m not.

Change a few things around in that synopsis, and you’ll see that I’m talking about myself.

Not about my relationship failures or shortcomings with women, but about my continued frustrations with one man.  I have had a love/hate relationship with this guy for several years now.  He is constantly letting me down, yet I am constantly coming back, ready to give him one more shot.

Well 2012, my friends, is my last time coming back.

2012 is this guy’s last chance to come through for me.

The man I’m talking about is none other than Edwin Encarnacion.

I have loved and hated EE for a long time now, but it never started out that way.  In the beginning everything was positive.  I have been a fantasy baseball fanatic for over a decade now, and back in 2006 I picked up Edwin – then a second year player on the Reds – as a 3B in August as I dealt with injury problems.  All that he did that month was destroy NL pitching: 27 games, 7 HR, 24 RBI, .317 AVG, .992 OPS.  That was all I needed – I was hooked.

Sure there were warning signs, but I chose to ignore them.  In September of that very same year, EE was awful.  He hit only 1 HR, drove in only 5 runs, and hit a paltry .205 in 26 games.  Had I chosen to pay more attention to those stats, perhaps this entire on-again/off-again path would never have happened.

But I didn’t, and it did.  Two years later I drafted him for my team, and he responded with 26 HR.  Though the average dropped into the .250′s, his OPS was still above .800.

When he was acquired by the Blue Jays in’09 as part of the Scott Rolen trade, I was pretty excited.  I thought we were penciling in 30 HR power at third for many years to come.  But when he started playing, one thing became evident, one thing that I had never considered.  You see, fantasy baseball only cares about offensive numbers.  Champions are determined by average, home runs, runs scored, RBI’s, and stolen bases.

Defense doesn’t play a part in fantasy.  And Edwin Encarnacion doesn’t play any defense.

A quick look at his dWAR numbers tell you all you need to know.  While offensively in his career Edwin has been very good (a 10.6 oWAR), defensively he has been atrocious.  His career dWAR is -6.3.  That’s right: negative 6.3.

For those who might not be too familiar with what that means, I’ll tell you:  it’s bad.  It’s really, really bad.

But still, I gave him a chance in 2010.  I had high hopes that his offense would at least make up for his glove.  But it was an awful season for EE, as he battled injury, wound up in the minor leagues for a bit, and then limped his way into September.  Fans were booing him.  I had given up on him – the love was gone.

Except….

He took off again.  Yes the average was low (.231), but in 16 September games he slugged 8 HR, had 15 RBI, and had an OPS of .939, all with an insanely low BAbip of .128.  That last stat suggested that Encarnacion was extremely unlucky and should have likely had a much higher batting average.

Suddenly I was once again intrigued.

Then, without warning, the Oakland A’s claimed EE off waivers in November of ’10.  For about a month I felt free.  No longer would I be jerked around by Edwin.  He was gone.  Of course, just as the script would have it, Encarnacion was granted free agency, and re-signed by Alex Anthopoulos.  Are you kidding me?

So began the most tumultuous year yet.  April and May of 2012 were horrible months.  His defensive play was awful, and he could no longer hit.  But something funny happened around the end of May.  EE finally lost his job at 3B, moving instead to a 1B/DH combo role.  Maybe it was the stress of playing third, of having to field ground balls and make accurate throws to first that was throwing him off, because his offensive stats took off.  As a 3B his OPS was .672 last season, compared to .800 at 1B, and .855 at DH.

For reference purposes, of all players with over 200 AB as a DH in 2011, only David Ortiz and Victor Martinez had a higher OPS than Edwin’s .855.

Which brings us back to this year.  An argument can be made about several different Blue Jays being the team’s most important player in 2012 in order for Toronto to take the next step.  Brandon Morrow must develop consistency, Colby Rasmus must finally break out, Travis Snider must stick with the team and prove he belongs, Sergio Santos must provide stability out of the bullpen, Brett Lawrie must continue his progression, etc.  You’d be right about any of those guys.

But allow me to present an argument on behalf of Edwin Encarnacion.  Toronto’s most glaring weakness last season was protection for Jose Bautista.  Adam Lind struggled. Aaron Hill struggled when he was here.  J.P. Arencibia was inconsistent.  Brett Lawrie was good, but a rookie and still raw.  With AA not bringing in a big, middle of the order bat, that same glaring weakness still exists.  With all of the nonsense about Edwin playing third finally put to rest, he can finally focus on being the slugger that he has the potential to be.  That will be like adding a middle of the order bat in its own right.  A 30-plus HR season might not be out of the question.

So I’m back on board Edwin, back on the bandwagon.  I’m giving you one final chance to come through.

Prove me right.

It has been well publicized this offseason that the Toronto Blue Jays avoided high-priced free agents, deciding instead to stick with their youth movement and philosophy of stockpiling talent.  If there ever was an offseason to throw that philosophy away it was this one, with huge, game changing names such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Jonathan Papelbon, Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson, and Carlos Beltran available.  But Alex Anthopoulos didn’t.  He stuck to his guns.

It has also been well publicized that the Blue Jays held their annual State of the Franchise event this past Monday, an event that I was lucky enough to attend.  During the Q&A portion of the event, Anthopoulos explained his philosophy to about 800 season ticket holders, media reps, and bloggers.  In his talk, he mentioned one specific phrase that stuck with me: “building a sustainable contender”.

To me, that sounds great.  Imagine a team that has the ability to contend not only for a Wild Card, but for the AL East title and a World Series crown year in and year out.  We had that here once, a wonderful 10-year stretch from 1984 to 1993.  In that decade the Jays averaged over 91 wins a season, finished 4th in the AL East (back when it had 7 teams) once, 3rd once, 2nd three times, won the division five times, and capped it off with two World Series.  Those were the golden days.  I liked those days.  You liked those days.  Everybody liked those days.

We all want those days back.

At least I thought we all wanted those days back.  A large amount of people, as I saw first hand on Monday night, do not seem to want those days back.  Yes they want to win the World Series, but from what the fans were saying, it seems like they would gladly trade away the future for instant success.

Seriously.  Fans were angry that Anthopolous didn’t break the bank to sign Fielder and Darvish for a combined $320-million.  They were upset that Antopoulos didn’t trade away most of our blue chip prospects for Gio Gonzalez and/or Mat Latos.  I know they were angry because I heard it first hand.

Which leads me to my poll.  What would you rather have? 

Option A – Sustainable Contender

This is a team who is always in the mix. You know going into each year that this team will have a chance to make the playoffs, and a chance to win the World Series.  It might continually fall short of the ultimate goal, but it always has a chance. 

Scenario – Next 12 Seasons: 1 Championship, 2 - 4 Championship appearances, 12 playoff appearances

Baseball Example – Atlanta Braves 

14 consecutive division titles.  Only one World Series win, but always in the playoffs.

Other Example – Philadelphia Flyers 

Made the playoffs 16 of the past 17 seasons.  Zero Stanley Cups, but lost in the Finals twice, and have won 17 postseason series in that time.

Option B – Instant Winner

This is the team that goes all out for a championship.  A team that signs the high-priced free agents to outrageous contracts and strips their farm system bare of prospects to trade for that last key piece.  They want to win now, and next year, and the year after, and are willing to sacrifice the next 4-7 years after that to do it.  This would be like Toronto signing Fielder, and Beltran, and Papelbon, then trading away guys like Drew Hutchinson, Deck McGuire, Travis d’Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, and others for Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza, and others.  Yes it might lead to a World Series in 2012, and maybe even a World Series in 2013, 2014, or 2015.  But it would also lead to a TERRIBLE team for five years after that, with no talent on the farm and no financial flexibility.

Scenario – Next 12 Seasons: 3 Championships, 9 seasons out of the playoffs, with most of them being last place or near last place finishes (i.e. hopeless, lost seasons)

Baseball Example – Florida Marlins 

Might not be the perfect example, but the Marlins were terrible from ’93 to ’96, then loaded up to win in 1997.  They dismantled, and went back to being terrible – dead last in ’98 and ’99, under .500 from ’00 to ’02, before loading up again to win in 2003.  Since then, they haven’t sniffed the playoffs, but are once again loading up this year.

Similar Baseball Example – New York Mets

They went to the NLCS in ’99 and the World Series in ’00, but handcuffed themselves with terrible contracts.  Since that time they have one playoff appearance, and are currently riding a stretch of 3 straight 2nd last, sub .500 finishes.  Starting this year they will be paying 49 year old Bobby Bonilla $1.2-million a year until he is 72.  Yikes. 

Other Example – Carolina Hurricanes

Won the Stanley Cup the first year after the lockout.  Gave huge contracts to Eric Staal and Cam Ward, that are now handcuffing the team.  Missed the playoffs four of the past five years, and are near last place again this season.

My Verdict

If Moneyball has taught us anything, it’s that playoffs are a crapshoot.  To quote a very important man: “All you gotta do is get there.”  Getting there gives you a chance.  Not getting there doesn’t.

For that reason, I’ll take Option A, all day long.

What’s your choice?

Last night the Blue Jays held their annual State of the Franchise event for season ticket holders.  Despite not being a season ticket holder (alas, I am only a lowly Season Pass holder, banished to the 500 Level with my drunk brethren), I was generously given an invite and was lucky enough to attend.

Before I get into the meat of the event, let me say this: it was a great time.  I was able to meet several other Jays bloggers for the first time (the guys from Drunk Jays Fans, Getting Blanked, Mop Up Duty, and Jays Journal), re-meet some that I have met before (Blue Jay Hunter and 1 Blue Jays Way), and also meet several Jays tweeters for the first time.  (As an aside, there is nothing more awkward and weird than meeting somebody for the first time and introducing myself as 500 Level Fan, instead of my real name.  Odd.)  The atmosphere was pretty cool, the set up was intimate, and amazingly the beer was free.  All in all, a good event.

Here are some more detailed thoughts on what was State of the Franchise 2012:

- First off, the results of my “Early Betting Lines” post from yesterday.  I posted eight potential questions / actions that I thought might happen.  Here’s the rundown:

1 and 2. Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder were both discussed.  More on that later.

3. Payroll Parameters – not really.  Yes there was talk about payroll, but the specific $120-million figure never came up.

4. Catcher of the Future – D’Arnaud’s name was mentioned, but not in the context of supplanting Arencibia.

5. The LF Question – Farrell directly addressed this, a few times.

6 and 7. Tony Fernandez and EE – not at all.

8. AA getting away with a “non-answer” – yes.  More on that to come.

- I want to talk specifically about the Fielder and Darvish situation because unlike many in attendance, I thought the Jays handled it perfectly.  For those who couldn’t watch the panel last night, before Buck Martinez opened up the Q&A session to the fans in attendance, he personally asked two questions.  The first went to Paul Beeston about why Prince Fielder wasn’t brought in, and the second went to AA about what happened with Darvish. 

To many, this was a slap in the face to fans, a cop-out, a slimy way to get out the back door.  By having Buck ask the questions in a free and easy, “we’re all friends here” manner, it basically takes the Prince and Yu issue off the table for the rest of the fans, some who may be legitimately angry.  But to me, that was a HUGE win.  I didn’t want to hear Jimmy from Oakville, or Peter from Ajax rip into the front office and call them cheap, or cowardly, or stupid because we didn’t get Prince Fielder.  I dont’ think we would have heard as honest or as direct of an explanation in that case.  It would have painted Beeston and AA into more of a defensive posture, like it or not.

Instead we heard a very honest answer by Beeston re: Fielder: “we don’t do any contract greater than 5-years in length.  If it was a 1, 3, or 5 year deal, we would have been right there.  Anything longer than that goes against our philosophy.”

We didn’t get quite the sane answer from Anthopoulos re: Darvish, which scores a point for item 8 in my betting lines piece (how many times will AA get away with a non-answer).  He basically gave no information about whether or not a bid was placed for Darvish, refusing to buckle and say that they were players in the sweepstakes for the Japanese pitcher.  Instead he mentioned that “each potential addition has a price or a value that we place on them.  If they ask for more than what we feel they are worth, we won’t sign them.”

- I thought that all three members of the panel – Farrell, Anthopoulos, and Beeston – were very well spoken and handled the questions with grace.  There were many, many, many stupid questions (trust me – more about that later), but each man on the panel thanked the person that asked the question, and then gave as detailed and honest an answer as they possibly could.  They were never defensive and always friendly.

Some of that honesty came out with Anthopoulos (and Beeston for that matter), boldly stating that there were two cases in which Toronto offered a free agent more money and/or more years than what he ultimately signed for.  This was in response to a question from a man who demanded to know why the Jays didn’t sign Carlos Beltran to a free-agent contract, flatly stating that since Beltran only signed for 2-years and $12-million per, that he should have fit Toronto’s contract philsophy.  One can insinuate that Beltran might have been one of those two players.  Anthopoulos, in his gentlemanly way, calmly answered to the irate fan that “some players don’t want to play on turf, some don’t want to DH, and some don’t want to switch leagues from the NL to the AL,” meaning, obviously, that Beltran didn’t want to come here.  Many fans often forget that a player also has to want to come to and play in a certain city and join a certain team.  I’m sure the fact that Toronto hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in almost 20 years and St. Louis is the defending World Series champion might have also played a part in that.

Never mind the fact that Beltran will be 35 in April, his best days are behind him, and his health is declining rapidly.  AA chose to take the high road and not quote that, as I likely would have…

- The questions.  Oh, the questions.  What can I say about the questions?

I thought some were good (such as “what are your thoughts on interleague play?”), but most weren’t.

But here’s the thing – it’s not that questions themselves weren’t any good, it was the people who asked them.  Aside from one woman who simply asked John Farrell who he envisioned as his starting outfield in 2012, each and every question was fronted by a 250 word preamble.  The format was basically the same.

From a happy fan:

“Hi, my name is [insert name here], and I have been a season ticket for [x number] of years.  [Insert story about how much fan likes the Jays here]. [Insert comment on how glad they are to be here tonight.] [Insert comment on how they liked the glory years and feel we are on the right track here.] Now, here’s my question.”

From a disgruntled fan:

“Hi, my name is [insert name here], and I have been a season ticket for [x number] of years.  [Insert story about how disappointed fan was with the offseason]. [Insert comment on how upset they are with the failure to make playoffs / sign free agents / make trades / play on grass / contend on an annual basis.] Now, here’s my question.”

Honestly, a simple 20-second question at times took 3-4 minutes to ask.  I can’t say that I’m surprised and didn’t expect it.  I have been to an Annual General Meeting for a major corporation before, and the same thing happened.  Seriously people – the CEO / President / GM of a company is happy that you came, but unless you hold the majority of shares or have a direct influence on the company, they don’t care about your opinion.  Alex Anthopoulos doesn’t care that some guy from Cambridge thinks he gave up too much for Colby Rasmus (an honest to God comment from last night).  The trade is done.  It happened.  He also doesn’t likely care that some other guy renounced his fanship last night because Toronto didn’t sign Fielder.  I’m sure Beeston and Anthopoulos would much rather forfeit one fan’s $1,200 contribution to team revenue from his season tickets than be forced to pay a 36-year old 450 pound, immobile, and decrepit Prince Fielder $24-million.

Anyways, I digress…

Here are my winners in these five categories:

Funniest Question/Comment: A man named Ronny said that even if results aren’t there, he wants to see great effort, and “players that look and act like winners to me (but not the Charlie Sheen kind).  I look at Brett Lawrie and I see a winner.  I look at Alex and I see a winner.  I look at John Farrell and I don’t see a winner cause it’s too soon.”  Classic.

Stupidest Comment: “First off I want to say that I think we gave up way too much in the Colby Rasmus trade.  Both pitchers that went to St. Louis won the World Series.”  Amazing.  Never mind that we traded a 37-year old reliever on a one-year deal and a left-handed reliever for a 25-year old potential All Star, Dotel won the WORLD SERIES!  Terrible trade.

Stupidest Question:  I can’t remember the full question, but it ended something like this: “when will Toronto have a Canadian on the major league roster?“  Apparently calling Brett Lawrie “our Canadian superstar” wasn’t obvious enough.

Most Bizarre Moment: When a Venezuelan stood up and said that he brought a team of 35-year old Venezuelan players to Niagara Falls and wanted Toronto to sign them, only the representative from the Blue Jays said the team was too busy.  Instead, the Texas Rangers came up to Niagara Falls during the World Series and signed five of the players.  Very, very strange.  Even AA didn’t know what to think.

Biggest Bonehead: “I’m a Jays fan through and through,” said by a man wearing a Detroit Tigers shirt.  Seriously.  The best part was seeing AA call him out on it.  Classic.