Category Archives: Upper Deck Insight

Fun With Numbers

Tough game last night as the Jays couldn’t solve Dan Haren.  He dominated Toronto both on the mound and at the plate, pitching 8 IP with 4 ER, 9 H and 8 K, and also going 2-4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI.  But it was a very interesting game for the Jays despite the loss.  They smacked six long balls, including three alone for Edwin Encarnacion, extending their MLB  HR lead.  Bautista also went deep for the 13th time this season, continuing his absolutely torrid pace.

All of those home runs inspired me to take a deeper look into some of the numbers early on in the 2010 MLB season:

6  –  Runs scored by the Blue Jays yesterday, all coming on solo home runs.  That is the first time that has happened since 1920.

45.5  –  Percentage of Edwin Encarnacion’s hits that have been home runs.  After launching three yesterday, the 3B now has 11 hits on the season, 5 of them being dingers.

4  –  Home runs out of the five hit by Encarnacion this season that have been solo shots.  Either the Jays can’t get runners on for his at-bats, or he can’t hit with runners on-base.

64  –  Strikeouts this season by Ricky Romero, 2nd most in the AL.  A Blue Jay has won the AL strikeout title three times in team history: AJ Burnett (2008), and Roger Clemens (1997 & 1998)

292  –  Toronto’s single season strikeout record, set by Roger Clemens in 1997.  At his current pace of 9.1 K/9, Romero would need to pitch 282 innings to break the record.  Unlikely.

13  –  Wild pitches by Ricky Romero, most in the major leagues.  A Jay has lead all of baseball in wild pitches twice in club history: Juan Guzman in 1993 (with 26) and 1994 (with 13).

12  –  Saves by Kevin Gregg, tied for the lead in the AL.  The last Jay to lead the AL in saves was Duane Ward in 1993.  The great Tom Henke also won a saves title as a Jay in 1987.

13  –  HR by Jose Bautista, one behind major league leader Paul Konerko.  Only once has a Jay lead baseball in home runs, Jesse Barfield with 40 in 1986.  (Fred McGriff did win an AL HR crown in 1989.)

116  –  Wins that the Tampa Bay Rays are on pace for through 42 games.  The major league record in a season is 116 (Seattle in 2001, Chi Cubs in 1906).  Might be tough to catch them this year…

17  –  Consecutive losing seasons for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  With an 18-24 record so far, and a league worst 144 runs scored, that could very easily become 18, the most in any professional sport.  No matter how bad we think we have it in Toronto, it could always be worse… same sites . expired domains . expiration of domains apache web server website offline link checker

Law of Averages 1 – Blue Jays 0

It was bound to happen.  There were so many aspects of today’s ninth inning that were screaming out for a market correction.  The Jays took a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th, had the AL leader in saves on the hill, and were facing the worst offense in baseball.  Even more – the worst offense in baseball was riding a five-game losing streak and had done nothing worthwhile all day long.  It can even be argued that they embarrassed themselves by having to resort to back-to-back bunts in the third inning to score their lone run of the game.  Offense like that is bad on a monumental level.

But it became very evident in the 9th that Toronto was not going to win today’s ballgame.  Kevin Gregg couldn’t throw strikes.  Seattle started getting hits.  For the first time this season baseball reverted back to what was “supposed” to happen.  Even Ken “Sleepy” Griffey had a hit, the game winning single of all things.

I don’t chalk this loss up to Kevin Gregg falling apart.  I don’t foresee this loss starting Toronto’s second annual May collapse.  No – this loss is simply the law of averages striking back, hitting Jays fans directly in the nuts.  Take the following into consideration:

– Before this season, Kevin Gregg had a career K:BB ratio of 2.26:1.  This season it was 4.4:1.  The law of averages dictated that more walks should be on the horizon, and today Gregg walked two and struck out zero.

– Similarly, Gregg’s career ERA was 4.10 pre-2010, compared to 1.89 this season.  Today? 3 ER in 0.1 IP – law of averages wins again.

– The Jays had won three games in the ninth inning that they had no business winning this season.  For a team that is not expected to contend for a championship, logic dictates that by the end of the season they should wind up with a similar number of losses in games they had no business losing.  Today was one.

– Seattle had only six comeback wins through the first 40 games, including only one win in 18 games when they trailed in the ninth.  For a team expected to contend for the AL West title, that number is too low.  Consider today a market correction.

– Ken Griffey Jr. was having one of the worst seasons on record, not only for him, but for anybody.  In 93 AB, he was scuffling along with a .183 avg, .449 OPS, 0 HR, and 6 RBI.  When he came to the plate in the ninth with the winning run on second, everybody knew it was over.  It was the God of Averages that made sure the future hall-of-famer had at least one more moment of glory.

So don’t worry Jays fans.  Toronto shouldn’t be this good and they are.  Seattle shouldn’t be this bad and they are.  Think of this loss as a slight market correction and nothing more.  A game like this was bound to happen eventually.  Let’s just hope it doesn’t happen any more… expired domains expiration of domains apache web server . website offline link checker