Category Archives: Upper Deck Insight

Law of Averages 1 – Blue Jays 0

It was bound to happen.  There were so many aspects of today’s ninth inning that were screaming out for a market correction.  The Jays took a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th, had the AL leader in saves on the hill, and were facing the worst offense in baseball.  Even more – the worst offense in baseball was riding a five-game losing streak and had done nothing worthwhile all day long.  It can even be argued that they embarrassed themselves by having to resort to back-to-back bunts in the third inning to score their lone run of the game.  Offense like that is bad on a monumental level.

But it became very evident in the 9th that Toronto was not going to win today’s ballgame.  Kevin Gregg couldn’t throw strikes.  Seattle started getting hits.  For the first time this season baseball reverted back to what was “supposed” to happen.  Even Ken “Sleepy” Griffey had a hit, the game winning single of all things.

I don’t chalk this loss up to Kevin Gregg falling apart.  I don’t foresee this loss starting Toronto’s second annual May collapse.  No – this loss is simply the law of averages striking back, hitting Jays fans directly in the nuts.  Take the following into consideration:

– Before this season, Kevin Gregg had a career K:BB ratio of 2.26:1.  This season it was 4.4:1.  The law of averages dictated that more walks should be on the horizon, and today Gregg walked two and struck out zero.

– Similarly, Gregg’s career ERA was 4.10 pre-2010, compared to 1.89 this season.  Today? 3 ER in 0.1 IP – law of averages wins again.

– The Jays had won three games in the ninth inning that they had no business winning this season.  For a team that is not expected to contend for a championship, logic dictates that by the end of the season they should wind up with a similar number of losses in games they had no business losing.  Today was one.

– Seattle had only six comeback wins through the first 40 games, including only one win in 18 games when they trailed in the ninth.  For a team expected to contend for the AL West title, that number is too low.  Consider today a market correction.

– Ken Griffey Jr. was having one of the worst seasons on record, not only for him, but for anybody.  In 93 AB, he was scuffling along with a .183 avg, .449 OPS, 0 HR, and 6 RBI.  When he came to the plate in the ninth with the winning run on second, everybody knew it was over.  It was the God of Averages that made sure the future hall-of-famer had at least one more moment of glory.

So don’t worry Jays fans.  Toronto shouldn’t be this good and they are.  Seattle shouldn’t be this bad and they are.  Think of this loss as a slight market correction and nothing more.  A game like this was bound to happen eventually.  Let’s just hope it doesn’t happen any more… expired domains expiration of domains apache web server . website offline link checker