photo from daylife.com

Not how we drew it up. 

I think that is the way Jays fans can summarize last week, a week where expectations far exceeded actual on-field performance.  When your team plays seven against the Rangers and the Angels, then follows that up with six against Oakland and Minnesota, it’s fair to expect the latter set of games to turn out better.  Not the case for Toronto.

As they say: that’s why you play the games.

Here are three things from week 6:

Week 6: May 7 – May 13

Record: 3 – 3

1. Opportunity Lost

Quick thought: with the pitching the Blue Jays have received this year, how many games would you expect the club to win when they play six against the two worst offensive teams in the American League?  If you said “at least four” you’re likely in the overwhelming majority.

And you’re also disappointed.

Toronto could only manage a 3- 3 split against Oakland and Minnesota last week, and while going .500 on a road trip is never a bad thing (3 – 3 last week, and 5 – 5 total) they’ll feel there should have been more.  Yes, Oakland was above .500 and suprisingly competitive coming into the series, but they were an offensively challenged team missing their biggest offensive weapon after Yoenis Cespedes hit the DL with a hand injury.  Minnesota was the worst team in all of baseball when the Jays came to town, and they were hurt by the loss of Justin Morneau with a wrist injury.

But still, both teams earned a split against Toronto, which has to go down as an opportunity lost.  The Jays had a chance in all three of the games they lost – blowing a lead in the ninth in one, and leaving the tying run stranded in scoring position in the ninth in the other two – but came up just a bit short. 

It makes things even more frustrating when you consider the upcoming schedule.  The next 16 games come against opponents (Tampa Bay, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Texas, and Baltimore) with a combined record of 125 – 83. 

No cupcakes there…

2. Slowly But Surely

He entered 2012 as one of the most feared hitters in baseball.  He finished April as one the most disappointing. 

But Jose Bautista looks like he is slowly but surely rounding back into form.  In six games last week he produced a batting line more in line with what we have come to expect from him: 6 for 22, .273 average, .385 OBP, 1.066 OPS, 3 HR,  3 RBI, 3 BB and only 1 K.  The week improved his season average 15 points to .198, and his season OPS 69 points to .737. 

May has been a much better month for Jose.  While his batting average is still low, his production has greatly improved.  Bau finished April with a .634 OPS, but has exploded for a .938 OPS in May.  Obviously we’d like to see more HR from him, but the fact remains that after last week Bautista is now sitting T-6 in the AL in homers.  His 8 bombs are more than Miguel Cabrera, Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, and Albert Pujols have hit. 

Put in that context, Jose doesn’t look that bad at all.  And he’s only getting better.

3. One Streak Ends…But One Begins

It was bound to end at some point, especially considering the youth and inexperience of the Jays rotation.  The fact that it even lasted as long as it did has to qualify as a surprise.  I’m talking about Toronto’s streak of having a starter go at least five innings in a game, a streak that ended at 34 on Friday night in Minnesota.  Kyle Drabek lasted only 4.1 IP, and funny enough I thought that it was one of his most impressive starts of the season.

That he didn’t have his best stuff was obvious from the beginning, when he walked the bases loaded in the first inning.  But he allowed a total of four walks and four hits, yet only three runs. It was a text book case of pitching out of trouble, something his five strikeouts greatly assisted in. I thought it was his most impressive start because of what could have been.  The 2011 version of Drabek would have folded up shop in the first inning, probably walked a few more and maybe given up one or two game-changing hits.  He wouldn’t have made it out of the inning and the Jays would have been behind big time.  Instead, he kept the team in the game, a game they very nearly won.

And just in case anybody else in baseball thought that Friday was the speed bump that would collapse Toronto’s pitching machine, think again.  A new streak has already started as Hutchison threw 6 innings on Saturday, followed by 5.1 IP from Romero yesterday.

2 down, 32 to go…

photo from daylife.com

Jays fans had their eyes on the past week of the schedule since the winter, when both the Rangers and the Angels went free agent crazy.  With the balance of power seemingly shifting to the West, a week that featured three games against the two-time defending AL Champion Rangers, now with Yu Darvish, and four games against the LA Angels, now with Albert Pujols, was always going to be difficult.

The Jays handled themselves pretty well, and proved to many (including a lot of people in their own fanbase) that they won’t be intimidated by anybody this year.  After a pretty successful week, Toronto gets a bit of a reprieve next week, with series upcoming against Oakland and Minnesota.  Time to go on a run.

Here are three things from week 5:

Week 5: April 30 – May 6

Record: 4 – 3

1. Starting Pitching Supreme!

Heading into the 2012 season, Toronto’s rotation was thought to be a glaring weakness, the one real issue that might stand in the way of a playoff push.  Romero and Morrow provided two dependable arms, but behind them was three spots filled with young, unproven rookies. 

At this point in the season I think we can say we have all been pleasantly surprised.  The Blue Jays rank third in the AL with a 3.55 starting pitcher ERA, fourth in WHIP at 1.18, and second in innings pitched with 187.2.  Jays starters are averaging over 6 innings per start, keeping the bullpen’s usage down.

Last week was a banner week for Jays starters.  Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek each made two starts, and while Hutch struggled a bit to hold the Rangers and Angels down, he kept Toronto in both games and managed to pitch 11.1 IP with only 2 BB and 11 K’s.  Drabek didn’t fare well in his second start, but his first was one of the best of his career as he went pitch-for-pitch with Yu Darvish and finished with 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, and 8 K.

But the cream of the crop started mid-week with Ricky Romero on Wednesday.  The numbers will show 5 ER, but he stayed in the game for 8 innings, and lead the Jays to a win over the best team in baseball – the Texas Rangers.  Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez followed him up by pitching back-to-back complete game shutouts in Anaheim.  It was the first time the team has tossed back-to-back complete game shutouts since 1993 when Jack Morris and Al Leiter turned the trick – and the first time they’ve ever accomplished the feat on the road.

1993 ended pretty well.  If this pitching holds up, who knows how 2012 might end?

2. JPA Heating Up

When it comes to slow starts, it’s hard to picture a worse start to a season than what befell J.P. Arencibia.  Toronto’s catcher had a tough Opening Day, going 1 for 7 with 3 strikeouts, but his game winning 3-run bomb in the 16th rendered that moot.  However, three more strikeouts the next day was followed by several more hitless days, and on April 18th JPA’s average had dropped to .063, and his OPS was dreadful .274.

But he had two hits on April 19th, and that sparked a turnaround, culminating in a pretty good week.  Arencibia played in five of the seven games last week, and hit .375 with a 1.037 OPS, 1 HR, 1 2B, 4 R, and 5 RBI.  For the season he is now hitting .234 with a .641 OPS – not great by any means, but much, much better than what he was showing earlier, and actually ranks him 9th among AL catchers with at least 70 AB. 

With Jose Bautista still struggling and Edwin cooling off a little bit, the Jays need other players to step up.  Arencibia is doing a nice job filling the offensive void.

3. Stumbling Out of the Gate

A lot of Blue Jays are still suffering from slow starts, namely Bautista, Lind, Rasmus, and Escobar.  But it’s not only individual players who are off to slow starts.  The team itself is starting to make a habit of starting slowly in individual games. 

Looking at the AL splits tells us that the Blue Jays are the worst team in the American League in terms of offensive production in the first two innings.  The numbers aren’t pretty:

1st Inning: 7 runs scored, .186 average, .582 OPS, 6 double plays

2nd Inning: 3 runs scored, .176 average, .537 OPS, 2 double plays

That is a grand total of 10 runs scored in the first two innings all season long.  Or, in other words, the Jays have scored only 10 runs in 58 first and second innings.  They have yet to produce a multi-run inning in any of their 29 games in either the 1st or 2nd.  Kelly Johnson has 3 solo HR in the 1st inning with an .896 OPS, and Adam Lind (surprisingly) has been the top hitter in the 2nd frame with a .817 OPS.  Other than that nobody is producing at all.

Obviously, this means that the Jays need to play catch up more often than not.  In fact, they have allowed runs in the first inning 7 times this year (8 total runs), and runs in the second inning 12 times (21 total runs), meaning for the season the Jays have been outscored 29-10 heading into the third.  This past week Toronto did not score a first or second inning run in any of the seven games, and allowed 8 runs against.  That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the offense to try and play from behind so often, especially when that offense has been underperforming so badly. 

Falling behind early is not the recipe for sustained success.  Let’s hope the bats wake up a bit earlier into games as the season progresses.

photo from canada.com

The fourth week of the 2012 season can be called a reverse sandwich week for the Jays.  Normally the best part of a sandwich is what’s in the middle, but that wasn’t the case last week.

The week began with great promise, as Toronto completed a four game sweep of KC on Monday night, and ended with a flourish – two straight blowout wins over Seattle.  

Too bad about the middle.  Four straight losses, including a three game sweep in Baltimore, that not only crushed Toronto’s momentum – it also destroyed one of 500 Level Fan’s 2012 predictions.  There’s no way the Jays can go 16-2 against the O’s now…

Here are three things from week 4:

Week 4: April 23 – April 29

Record: 3 – 4

1. Edwin on Fire!

We here at 500 Level Fan don’t call him EFMEE (Everybody’s Favourite Man Edwin Encarnacion) for nothing.  Our top notch staff here (a staff of one, by the way) predicted big things for EE this year, and so far he is not disappointing.  Edwin is currently sitting T-3rd in the AL with 7 HR, T-3rd with 20 RBI, and 7th with a 1.005 OPS. 

In addition, while many on the team were scuffling last week, EE definitely was not.  In seven games, Edwin hit for a 1.065 OPS, 3 HR, and 7 RBI, including three consecutive games with a dinger over the weekend – one of them a game changing grand slam. 

For a team that has traditionally had a hard time getting production from the DH spot, the Blue Jays are loving Edwin’s hot start.  And so is Edwin.  Last season he didn’t hit his 7th HR until July 20th and faced constant questions about his productivity, his struggles, and his future with the team.  Now that he has moved into the DH role full time, it looks like there’s nowhere to go but up.

2. Bullpen Woes

Without a doubt, the bullpen was Toronto’s weak spot in 2011.  The failures of the relief corps last year were well documented, as was AA’s quest this offseason to repair it.  While on paper the relievers look much, much better, in reality it’s been the same old story.

Through yesterday’s games, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 4th last in the AL with a 4.52 ERA and fifth last with a 1.34 WHIP.  They have allowed 10 HR, third most in the league, and have already blown five saves, one fewer than the Angels.  Five members of the ‘pen have an ERA greater than 5.00: Cordero, Janssen, Frasor, Santos, and Villanueva.  Luis Perez, Toronto’s best reliever thus far, was roughed up on Friday, just after Cordero – the interim closer with Santos on the DL - blew a 2-run lead in the 9th.

It’s still early, and there is plenty of time for things to turn around.  But this is not the start the Blue Jays were looking for.

3. King Alvarez

He’s only 22 years old but he’s pitching like a much more experienced man.  After another dynamite start yesterday, Henderson Alvarez looks like the real deal.

He has made five starts and has pitched into the 6th inning in all of them.  His one blip was against Tampa, but other than that he has been lights out.  An ERA of 3.62, a WHIP of 1.11, and a composure that is through the roof show that Alvarez is slowly turning into one of Toronto’s most consistent starters.  If the Blue Jays could score any runs for him, the rookie might be 4-1 in 2012.

It’s not all sunshine and lollipops for Alvarez, as some of his peripherals are concerning.  He only has 9 strikeouts to go with 9 walks, for poor 1.00 K/BB and 2.5 K/9 ratios.  He has also hit three batters in 32.1 IP.  But he is showing he isn’t afraid to pitch to contact, and with Toronto’s airtight defense behind him who can blame him?

Again – it’s early.  But Alvarez has turned in enough solid performances to convince many that just maybe Toronto’s rotation – supposed to be a major weakness in 2012 – is actually a strength.

The third week of the 2012 season was a week of firsts for the Jays.  There was the first meeting with the powerful Tampa Bay Rays.  The first game with the roof open (a crazy thought as it gets set to snow in Toronto today).  There was also the beginning of the first extended road trip, a 7-game journey to Kansas City and Baltimore.

And, sadly, there was also the first blowouts of the season, a 10-run loss to Tampa followed up by a 5-run loss the next day.

But the strength and make-up of a team is often determined by how they respond to adversity, how they bounce back from tough times.  Toronto looked pretty good in response to the Tampa losses by finishing the week with another first – their first three game winning streak.

Here are three things from week 3:

Week 3: April 16 – April 22

Record: 4 – 2

1. Here Comes Ricky

One bad inning.  That was what happened to Ricky Romero in the season opener in Cleveland, when he allowed four earned runs in the second inning against the Indians.  Other than that, he has been pretty much lights out pitching in the role of Toronto’s ace.

Over the past couple of seasons,  Romero has developed the one thing that is mandatory in a staff ace – consistency.  Brandon Morrow has better stuff, as demonstrated by his killer strikeout numbers, but it is Romero’s consistency that puts him over the top.  Consider his start to the 2012 season: 4 starts, 27.1 IP for an average of just under 7 IP/start.  He is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP (a career best).  He went 2-0 with 5 ER in 14 IP last week to pace the Jays.  Of course it’s early, and the numbers are bound to change, but to me this is Romero’s most impressive stat: In his 27.1 IP, he has allowed runs in only 5 innings, and only 3 of those innings have been multi-run innings.  His worst inning of the season was the afforementioned 2nd inning in Cleveland. 

He may not be as dominant as a Verlander, Kershaw, or Halladay, with no-hit type outings each and every time out, but if Romero can keep this consistency all year, he doesn’t have to be.

2. The New Big Two

Toronto has seemingly had two big bats in the lineup for several years.  There was Wells and Rios in ’08, Hill and Lind in ’09, Wells and Bautista in ’10, and Bautista and Lind/JPA in ’11.  This year many were expecting the Bautista / Lawrie combo to fill those shoes, and while Lawrie is doing just fine, Bautista continues to struggle.  So who at this point in time are Toronto’s big two?

Would you believe Encarnaciion and Rasmus?

After Sunday’s win over the Royals, those two were 1-2 on the team in OPS: EE at .981 and Colby at .784.  They each put together truly phenomenal weeks at the plate as well.  Encarnacion hit .375 with a 1.012 OPS last week, chipping in 9 hits, 2 doubles, a home run, 4 RBI and 3 walks, along with a stolen base.  Rasmus, after a slow start, hit .348 with a 1.075 OPS, 8 hits, 2 HR, and 4 RBI, along with playing gold glove calibre D in CF.

You have to think it’s only a matter of time before Bautista gets going, and if Lawrie picks it up a bit, and EE and Colby continue to hit, we could be looking at something we haven’t seen since the early ’90′s: Four Big Bats.

3. Beat the Teams You Should

There’s an old saying in any sport that goes something like this: teams that are good beat the teams they should.

(Note – I don’t think it actually rhymed, but it sounds way better that way no?)

What it essentially boils down to is that teams that are at or near the top never look past an opponent.  The Blue Jays are a good team this year, picked by many to make the playoffs.  But the only way they are going to make it that far is to beat up on the lesser teams in the league.  The Jays can reasonably expect to be close to .500 against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, Tigers, and Angels when all is said and done, but they have to make sure they win games against the others.

They didn’t get off to a great start, losing two of three to the Orioles, but got a chance for redemption last Friday by kicking of a 10-game stretch against Kansas City, Baltimore, and Seattle (combined 2011 record of 207 – 279).  We’re used to seeing teams like the Yankees go 8-2 or 9-1 in stretches like this and begin to pull away, while “pretenders” often go 4-6.

The Jays are out to prove that they aren’t pretenders, and by getting off to a 3-0 start in this stretch, they are on the right track.  The big test is to see if they can keep the foot on the gas, because every win in April helps so much more come September.

The baseball season is long – 162 games long, so calling any game this early in the season a must-win game is a bit harsh.  But Sunday’s series finale against the Orioles had that feel to it.  A loss would have meant a series sweep – at home none-the-less – to the perennial door mat Orioles, destroying all early season momentum.  Some Toronto fans, notoriously fickle, were already starting to waver in their support of the club, and the leak in the bandwagon might have grown if the slump continued.

Thankfully the offense finally awoke, exploding for a seven run 6th inning to pace the team to a 9-2 win and keep the Jays above the .500 mark.  Yes it’s a long season, but every game counts, even those in April against Baltimore.

Here are three things from week 2:

Week 2: April 9 – April 15

Record: 3 – 3

1. Bautista Missing in Action

It was a week to forget for Toronto’s MVP.  Bautista, coming off back-to-back monster seasons, seemed to pick up right where he left off with a 3 for 4 opener that included a home run and 2 RBI.  Unfortunately not much has gone right since.  Bautista is still sitting at 1 HR and 2 RBI, and his rate stats are sinking like a stone.  In six games last week Bau was 3 for 22 for a .136 average and a .390 OPS and an alarming 5 strikeouts.

To my admittedly uneducated batting eye it looks like a matter of timing.  Bautista’s leg kick looks to be either a fraction of a second early or a fraction of a second late, leading to several mis-hit balls, pop outs, and swings and misses.  If there is a silver lining, it looks like he is slowly putting things back together.  On Sunday he hit a double, scored a run, drew a walk, and smoked a line drive that was right at the third baseman – an out, yes, but solid contact.

Hopefully an off day on Monday will be all he needs to get things back together.

2. Edwin for Life!

While Bautista continues to struggle, along with a few other higher profile Jays, one man continues to dominate.  500 Level Fan’s favourite man, Edwin Encarnacion is off to a terrific start.  He leads all starters with a .957 OPS, and his 9 RBI place him in a tie for fourth in the AL.  Last week he posted a 1.148 OPS and even threw in two stolen bases for good measure.

Put into context with the struggles of the rest of the team, his hot start is great.  But it’s even better when compared with the way he started last season.  Edwin didn’t hit his third HR last year until June 25th.  At the end of May, he was hitting .247 with a .619 OPS, only 1 HR and 10 RBI.  He was playing atrociously in the field, and looked shaken, with little to no confidence.  There was even talk about shipping him to the minors or releasing him.

Now, EE looks like a changed man, dripping confidence, and playing with a fire that we haven’t seen in him since arriving in Toronto.  What a difference a year makes.

3. Kyle Drabek – Fact or Fiction?

6.06.  1.81.  55.  14.

Those were some of the 2011 numbers of Kyle Drabek.  A 6.06 ERA, league worst 1.81 WHIP, 55 walks, and only 14 starts before being shipped to AAA Vegas.  After his numbers in the minors ended up looking worse, many fans simply gave up on him.  Suddenly, the key piece of the Roy Halladay trade was no longer blue chip prospect Kyle Drabek.  It was now catcher Travis d’Arnaud.

It’s still very early, but we might want to rethink that statement.  Drabek wasn’t even supposed to make the team out of spring training, but an injury to Dustin McGowan opened up a spot in the rotation and Drabek has stepped in and run with it.  Through two starts, he is a perfect 2-0.  His ERA is 1.42 as he has allowed only 2 ER in 12.2 IP.  His stuff is still nasty, with 10 strikeouts for a 7.1 K/9 ratio.  And most important of all, his control looks a lot better too.  Thus far he has allowed only 4 walks.  His BB/9 is 2.8, far, far below the brutal 6.3 ratio in 2011.

Now, two starts do not make a season, but it’s hard not to be excited with the way Drabek is pitching.  He isn’t getting down on himself after allowing a home run, or a timely hit, and he isn’t throwing tantrums in the dugout when things don’t go his way.  After Adam Jones hit a 900 foot home run in the 6th yesterday, I was expecting a meltdown that never came.

If Drabek can keep it up, maybe the rotation will be a strength after all.

It's been a tough start for Colby (from daylife.com)

The 2012 season is underway, and the start of the season has proven to be epic for the Blue Jays.  A record setting Opening Day game went 16-innings, and was followed up by another extra inning game on Saturday.  Though a tough loss on Sunday ruined the chances at a sweep, the 2-1 start has the team headed in the right direction as they return home for tonight’s home opener.

Here are three things from week 1:

Week 1: April 5 – April 8

Record: 2 – 1

1. Slow Starts

Yes Toronto is off to a 2-1 start.  Yes they have scored 17 runs in three games.  But there is some cause for concern in that in each of the three games the Jays have gotten off to incredibly slow starts.  Through the fiirst six innings of each, Toronto has managed to score only three runs on only six hits.  As a team the Jays have taken just a single walk and have struck out 11 times.  They have also trailed by more than one run in all three games: 4-1 on Thursday, 2-0 on Saturday, and 4-2 on Sunday. 

Though they managed to come back and win two of those games, this is a trend that the Jays do not want to continue. 

2. Ice Cold Colby

I have a lot of faith in Colby Rasmus.  I think he will have a bounce-back season with solid production.  But there are a lot of people out there who don’t believe in him – I have a friend who has guaranteed Rasmus will finish the season batting under the Mendoza line.  While his defence has been outstanding thus far, Colby isn’t doing himself any favours in terms of silencing his critics.  Through three games he has looked awful at the plate.

Batting in the nine hole, Rasmus has gotten off to a .067 start, with a measly .192 OPS.  That translates into one hit in 15 at bats, with only one walk and two strikeouts.  It’s obviously incredibly early and there’s no reason to panic just yet, but a slow start for the seemingly fragile Rasmus was probably the worst thing that could have happened for his confidence. 

But don’t worry friends – I still have faith.

3. Bullpen Brilliance

After suffering through an unbelievably bad 2011, Toronto fans expected much improvement from the bullpen in 2012.  The acquisitions of Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, and Sergio Santos, the re-acquisition of Jason Frasor, and the return to health of Carlos Villanueva gave hope that the Achilles Heel from last year might possibly be a strength this year. 

Well, so far so good. 

Though the ‘pen is walking a few too many batters to be completely happy (10 so far) and Santos did have a blip on Saturday by blowing the save, they have been lights out thus far.  18 innings pitched, only 2 ER allowed, and 12 strikeouts.  That equates to a 1.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.  The bullpen was incredible in Thursday’s opener, tossing 11 scoreless innings and thwarting the Indians several times when it looked like they were about to steal a win. 

Last year I grew incredibly nervous each time John Farrell pointed to the ‘pen, but so far this year it’s the opposite.

Talk about division rivalries.  Starting with the four game set against Tampa last week, the Jays kicked off a stretch of 22 consecutive games against AL East foes.  Seeing how badly they struggled to beat the weaker teams in the AL, expectations were fairly low when Toronto took on the big boys.

And, sad to say, expectations were met.

A win on Monday helped the Jays avoid a four game sweep at the hands of the Rays.  A bullpen let down Tuesday prevented a three game sweep of the Orioles.  And then the Jays were outclassed in New York – a sweep at the hands of the Evil Empire.

It’s never easy winning in Yankee Stadium, but it is even more difficult to win there when the lineup is depleted.  Mike McCoy and DeWayne Wise are passable bench players, but should not be starting everyday, which is what was forced to happen on the weekend.

Unfortunately for the Jays it doesn’t get any easier as the injury riddled lineup gets set to play six of the next nine games against the Red Sox.

Good luck.

Here are three things from week 23:

Week 23: August 29 – September 4

 Record: 3 – 4

1. Injuries and More Injuries

Kudo’s to Alex Anthopoulos for putting together a fearsome starting lineup, one that looks ready to challenge the big boys for a playoff spot as early as 2012.  Lawrie, Escobar, Rasmus, Kelly Johnson, Arencibia, and Thames are all players who weren’t on the roster at the beginning of 2010.

Unfortunately, the core group of players is dropping like flies.  Already without Rajai Davis who is on the DL, Toronto lost Colby Rasmus to the DL last week, and then watched Yunel Escobar go down with a sore left wrist.  The injury to Rasmus forced Mike McCoy into the lineup to play CF, and then the injury to Escobar shifted MM to SS, bringing in Wise to CF. 

Confused yet?

At least there was some good news in the bullpen.  Frank Francisco, battling a sore shoulder, Casey Janssen, and Jon Rauch all returned from injuries. 

The best news of all, though, came from the dugout.  After a 10 game absence due to pneumonia, John Farrell was set to return to action on Monday.  Let’s hope the rest of the team follows suit and comes back soon.

2. Tough Road for Cecil

When Brett Cecil returned from AAA Vegas on June 30th, he was instantly lit up by the Pirates.  But after that start, he settled in nicely and looked set to become a permanent fixture in the rotation.  In the month of July the lefty was 3 – 1 with a 2.19 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 37 IP.

But since the calendar switched to August it’s been nothing but stuggles.  In seven starts Cecil has gone 0-4, given up 25 ER, 14 BB and 9 HR for an ERA of 4.96.  Last week things got even worse in his two starts against the Orioles and Yankees.  He looked tired, and didn’t have control of any of his pitches.  After lasting six innings in Baltimore, giving up 4 runs and a homer, he again only lasted six in NY, labouring through the innings.  It was almost a surprise that he “only” gave up four ER, considering he surrendered two huge HR.

At a time when Brandon Morrow is struggling mightily and the fifth rotation spot is an open audition, Toronto is depending on Cecil to eat some innings.  Ricky Romero can’t do it alone.

Thank goodness that….

3. Henderson Alvarez Has Arrived

When Alvarez made his debut on August 10th as a 21-year old, many (myself included) thought he was only here for one or two starts.  But even if that was the original plan, Alvarez is making it impossible to send him back down, delivering a message that he wants to be here for good.

Henderson went 0 – 2 in his first four starts, but deserved better.  He had a K:BB ratio of 16:5, and likely should have won one if not two of those starts.  But last week everything finally came together in Baltimore.   He earned his first career major league win by absolutely dominating the Orioles.  8 innings, 0 earned runs, 0 walks, 3 hits, and 5 strikeouts.  It was a masterpiece. 

Seeing how the kid looks composed, calm, and controlled on the mound, it might be the first of many masterpieces.  I hope Kyle Drabek is watching.

[Note: After shutting out the Red Sox for 6 innings on Monday, Alvarez has now thrown 15 consecutive scoreless innings.  Sign him up for 2012]

2011 was a disaster from start to premature finish for Travis Snider

That was ugly. 

The 22nd week of the MLB season is over, and it couldn’t end quickly enough for Toronto.  Six games, all at home, and for the most part, all disastrous.  The Jays dropped five of six to the Royals and the Rays, pushing both their overall record and their home record below the .500 mark.  Whatever faint hope the club had of competing for a postseason spot this year is now all but gone.  The focus on 2012 has begun.

But, disappointing as that is, it can also be seen as a good thing.  Now is an exciting time to be a fan as Alex Anthopoulos can evaluate the young talent on the roster and make an assessment for what is required next year.  Call it audition season.

Besides, after the 12-0 drubbing suffered on Sunday, things can only get better from here.

Here are three things from week 22:

Week 22: August 22 – August 28

 Record: 1 – 5

1. Wall = Hit

At this time of year, when many other teams are kicking it into high gear to chase for the playoffs, it feels like the opposite is happening in Toronto.  The young Jays look like they have hit the wall and run out of gas.  How else to describe a week where they looked so futile in all aspects of the game? 

In losing five of six games to Kansas City and Tampa Bay the Jays were awful on offense, defense, and on the mound.  They scored only 20 runs in the six games, and managed only 40 hits.  Toronto’s batters struck out a whopping 65 times in six games, including 18 times on Sunday alone.  Defensively they weren’t much better, booting the ball around for five errors.  And the pitchers were plain awful too.  After allowing 18 runs in three games to the Royals, they were destroyed for 24 runs in three games by the Rays.  Not good.  At all.

Everybody is scuffling right now.  Brandon Morrow looks beat (0-2 with a 9.90 ERA in his past two starts).  Adam Lind is lost at the plate (.143 average last week, .181 average in August with a tiny .485 OPS).  Colby Rasmus is on the DL.  Even the great Jose Bautista is struggling – he struck out 11 times last week alone.

Things are so bad that even the manager is out, as John Farrell continues to recover from a bout of pneumonia.

Tough times in the city.

2. Opportunity Lost

It was documented several times on this very site, that beginning on August 5th, Toronto began a 19 game stretch against largely beatable opponents.  With a great run against lesser opponents such as Baltimore, Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City the Jays had a real chance to gain several games on the division leaders.  While it likely wouldn’t have been enough to claim the Wild Card, it would have been more than enough to generate September excitement in a city that is desperate for some.

But Toronto suffered the fate that so many non-contenders suffer – they failed to beat the teams they should.  With many dreaming of a 15-4 or 16-3 stretch, the Jays went only 10-9 against the also-rans of the AL, and in the process became an also-ran themselves for the rest of 2011. 

For a team that is in an almost impossible division with Boston, New York, and Tampa, it is essential that the Jays take full advantage of soft spots in their schedule.  Teams that win championships don’t necessarily dominate other elite teams, but almost always destroy the weak sisters of their divisions.  Until Toronto can do that on a consistent basis they’ll always be a year away.

But you have to learn sometime.  Let’s hope the learning starts now…

3. Tough End to a Tough Year

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.  This was supposed to be the breakout year that everybody was expecting and hoping for.  This was supposed to be the year when he stepped into a role as offensive juggernaut beside Jose Bautista, and prepared to lead the Jays in the future.  2011 was supposed to be all about Travis Snider.

Instead, it has been an absolute disaster.  Travis had two separate stints with the Jays this year, with each ending in a demotion to the minors.  From Opening Day to April 28th, Snider hit .184 with a .540 OPS and only one home run.  In his second stint he was better (.260 AVG, .682 OPS, 2 HR) but not good enough to stay ahead of the Brett Lawrie express.  With all signs pointing to a September recall, Snider instead is done for the season, diagnosed with tendinitis in his right wrist last week.  The injury will force him out for 4-6 weeks, forcing him to wait until 2012 to prove he belongs.

An avid tweeter, Snider appears to have even turned off his Twitter account.  His last tweet was on August 25th, a cryptic message stating:

Luis Perez was outstanding on Sunday (from daylife.com)

Wow – where has the time gone?  After last week’s seven game West coast road trip, the Jays have now completed 21 weeks of the 2011 season.  With hope for the playoffs virtually extinguished, chatter has turned from making a postseason push, to who comes up in September, and where will Bautista finish in MVP voting.  It seems like just yesterday that 2011 was kicking off.  Brutal.

But there are still games to be played, and for the Blue Jays, there are still plenty of questions to be answered.  All of the roster turnover we have witnessed in recent weeks is all aimed at bringing a championship back to Toronto, hopefully as soon as 2012.  The rest of this season can be seen as an audition for next year – play well and a spot on the roster could be yours.

Here are three things from week 21:

Week 21: August 15 – August 21

 Record: 4 – 3

1. Offense Dries Up In Oakland

The offense was rolling.  In a span of six games (two vs. LAA, three vs. SEA, and one vs. OAK) Toronto plated 46 runs en route to five victories.  But then something happened.  Maybe they celebrated too hard after Ricky Romero’s CG 3-hit shutout on Thursday.  Maybe they all got food poisoning.  Maybe every member of the Jays offense became extremely depressed knowing they still had three more games to play in one of the most decrepit and unfriendly stadiums in all of professional sports.

Whatever the case, the bats that were scorching earlier suddenly turned ice cold.  Rich Harden, Gio Gonzalez, and Guillermo Moscoso completely befuddled Toronto hitters on the weekend, helping the A’s take two of the final three games of the four game set.  If it wasn’t for an outstanding pitching performance by Luis Perez and Casey Janssen, Oakland would have taken all three.

The Jays scored a measly two runs over the weekend, and managed a grand total of 11 hits.  11 hits!  They were shutout for the fifth time this season on Saturday night and looked to be on their way to another shutout on Sunday before Bautista saved the day.  Struggling in Oakland is nothing new to this team .  In 2010 Toronto made one trip to the Coliseum, and scored only 9 runs on 20 hits in three games.

The good news?  They left Oakland and took out their frustrations on their next opponent, a 16-2 win over Boston.

Look out KC – you’ve got some angry hitters coming at you tomorrow.

2. Roster Moves Galore!

Don’t recognize a large amount of this team from last week?  I don’t blame you.  Alex Anthopoulos was busy last week shuffling players here, there, and everywhere.

On Monday, Rajai Davis was placed on the 15-day DL, with Mike McCoy making yet another return to Toronto.  On Tuesday, Jon Rauch was placed on the 15-day DL and Trever Miller was designated for assignment.  Two lefties – Wil Ledezma and Rommie Lewis – were recalled from AAA Vegas to take their roster spots.  Then on Thursday, lefty Brad Mills was shipped back to Vegas, and iin a somewhat surprising move, Joel Carreno was brought up from AA New Hampshire.

But that’s not all!  On Saturday, journeyman pitcher Kyle Davies, fresh off a 1-9, 6.75 ERA stint with the Royals, was signed and sent to Las Vegas in what might be another attempt at a reclamation project by AA. 

On top of those moves, Toronto is now dealing with an injury to Adam Lind after he was hit on the wrist by a pitch on Saturday.  Though x-rays were negative, he still missed Sunday’s game, which happened to be the day after Jose Bautista missed Saturday’s game with a sore neck, and a few days after Aaron Hill was given a multi-game rest.  On top of that, de facto closer Frankie Francisco was scratched on Sunday due a sore shoulder issue. 

With all of these moves going on, it’s easy to forget that in just 9 days the rosters will expand, meaning one thing.

Get ready for even more moves!

3. Successful Auditions?

Toronto’s pitching staff has never been more wide open.  The triple I’s (injuries, ineffectiveness, and inconsistency) has thrown the rotation and the bullpen into a state of flux, meaning jobs are up for grabs – not just for the rest of this season, but potentially for 2012 as well.  Romero, Morrow, and Cecil seem pretty entrenched as starters, but poor play by Mills and Drabek, injuries to Litsch and Villanueva, and trades of Stewart and Rzepczynski have left the 4th and 5th slots wide open.  Henderson Alvarez seems to be managing well in his audition, and if Sunday means anything it looks like the 5th starter slot could be solved as well.

Luis Perez was brilliant yesterday, taking a perfect game into the sixth.  He finished with a line of 6 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, and 4 K, picking up his first win as a starter.  He also threw 80 pitches, and while he tired rapidly in the 6th, he showed enough stamina and endurance to suggest that he will be able to handle a regular turn.

Similarly, Casey Janssen might have won himself a more trustworthy bullpen role.  With Dotel traded, and Rauch and Francisco unavailable, Janssen pitched three scoreless innings in relief, striking out five.  He allowed only one walk and no hits, earning his second save of the season.  Might it be in the realm of possibility to see Janssen as a potential closer for the rest of the year?