After Toronto (with a little help from some awful umpiring) gifted a win to Tampa Bay last night, the team finds itself in a brutal position through 45 games:

Dead last in the AL East.

Nine games under .500.

Ten games back of the first place Yankees.

Seven games back of the second Wild Card.

In short, it’s not where anybody expected the team to be on the morning of May 22nd.  And I really do mean anybody – fans, experts, writers, and players.

So the question is – is this season over?  Faced with such an uphill climb (the Jays are only ahead of Houston in the entire American League), is there any hope that they can still earn the franchise’s first playoff spot since 1993?

I think there is.

Is the task ahead improbable?  Yes.  But is it impossible?  No.

Last season through 45 games, the Oakland Athletics had a better record than Toronto, but were still under .500 and trailed the first place Rangers by 5 games.  They finished the season 72 – 45 to claim the AL West title.  (For those counting, the 2011 Brewers, 2011 Diamondbacks, and 2010 White Sox were each under .500 at this point of the season and won 72+ games to the end of the year).  Yes the circumstances are different, but the same finish by Toronto would give them 90 wins.  Would that be enough for a Wild Card?  93 wins were required last year, so it might not be.  But it would still be close.

The main reason why I still think there is at least a little bit of hope is because 2013 has been for the most part a worst case scenario season.  Seriously – look at the best and worst case scenarios for several players:

Jose Reyes

Best Case – Proves he is still a beast at the top of the order

Worst Case – He’s injury prone and misses a big chunk of the season

R.A. Dickey

Best Case – Proves 2011 and 2012 were not flukes and dominates

Worst Case – Regresses due to new league and due to age

Mark Buehrle

Best Case – A solid #3 or #4 starter

Worst Case – Regresses due to new league and due to age

Melky Cabrera

Best Case – Plays with a chip on his shoulder and proves that he can hit without PEDs

Worst Case – Playing clean saps him of his power

Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis

Best Case – Provide solid defense at second base, get on base a lot, and score runs

Worst Case – Can’t handle second base, and prove awful at the plate

Josh Johnson

Best Case – In a contract year, has a career season

Worst Case – The injury prone pitcher hits the DL and misses a lot of time

For the seven new additions to the team, I would say that the worst case scenario has happened for ALL SEVEN!!!  But can that kind of bad luck really last?  Dickey and Buehrle have started to turn it around, and though Melky isn’t hitting home runs, he has started hitting a lot of doubles lately.  Both Reyes and Johnson will be back relatively soon.  And throw in guys like Brandon Morrow and Brett Lawrie who can’t possibly continue to play this badly, and you have a bit of reason for optimism.  Things have to get better!

So that brings us to the next question.  How can they turn it around?  Though it sounds like a cliche, the Blue Jays have to focus on one series at a time.  To look at the standings, to look at the record and the deficit they face in the division is too much.  To say they need to win 75 of the next 117 games is too much.  But to focus on one series at a time – that is an achievable and reachable goal.

Looking at the schedule, the Blue Jays have 117 games remaining.  One is this afternoon’s series concluding tilt with the Rays.  The remaning 116 games can be broken down into series. 

The Jays play three 2-game series, 26 3-game series, and eight 4-game series. (Note: the August 20-22 set in New York will most likely become a four-game series from August 19-22 after last weekend’s rain out).

If Toronto splits the 11 2-game and 4-game series, that gives them 19 additional wins.  If they then win each of the 26 3-game sets, that gives them an additional 52 wins, meaning they would finish 71-45.  Win today, and that matches Oakland’s win total from last year. 

Is it realistic that the Blue Jays will win EVERY SINGLE 3-game set the rest of the season?  No, probably not.  But if they lose five of them, they can just as easily win five of the 4-game series to make up for it.  Plus, don’t forget that Toronto has yet to play Minnesota and Houston, two of the worst teams in the AL.  They have 13 games upcoming against them.

The point is, breaking down the season into manageable 3 and 4 game sets makes the task seem much more achievable. 

I’m not saying it will happen.

But I’m saying that with 117 games left to play, I’m not ready to write-off the 2013 Blue Jays just yet.

And neither should you.

Last week was a very strange week for the Blue Jays. 

Two off days (a two game series sandwiched between two off days????  Really???) and a rain out shortened the schedule to only four games – a bonus considering the state of the rotation right now.

There was the refreshing change of domination, as the Jays shellacked the defending champion Giants.  That was sadly followed by a regression to what the team was doing in April, with a short two game sweep by the  Yankees.  Frustrating – very, very frustrating.

With seven games on tap against AL East rivals Tampa Bay and Baltimore this week the Blue Jays must ensure that they show up to play, or they could end the week buried in a massive hole.

Here are three things from week 7:

Week 7: May 13 – May 19

Record: 2 – 2

1. Bullpen Woes

The Jays went 2 – 2 last week, and while taking both games against the defending World Series champions is always great, the bullpen made things much more interesting than they should have been.  On Tuesday, Brad Lincoln allowed four runs, trimming a 10-2 lead to 10-6 and forcing the introduction of Esmil Rogers.  Then on Wednesday, Mickey Storey tried his best to let the Giants back into the game by allowing two runs of his own.

Overall, the Jays pen allowed seven earned runs in 10 innings last week, an ERA of 6.30.  With the coming (and eventual going) of Storey, Toronto has now used 14 different relievers in 2013.  While the top dogs – Janssen, Delabar, Loup, Cecil, and Oliver - have been very reliable, the other two (or three) in the ‘pen have been downright terrible.  Esmil Rogers, Ramon Ortiz (in his lone relief appearance), Brad Lincoln, Edgar Gonzalez, Sergio Santos, Mickey Storey, Dave Bush, Justin Germano, and Jeremy Jeffress combined to toss 48.2 innings, with an ERA of 6.10 and a WHIP of 1.66. 

After the Sunday rainout, the Jays begin a stretch of 14 games in 14 days, and are still without Josh Johnson.  Depth in the bullpen is huge in stretches like that, and having the back end allow runs at that rate will not help the team win.  Better production is no longer a nice to have – it is a MUST have, and the solution, interestingly, might be from within.  Oft-injured reliever Dustin McGowan has pitched 3 innings in Dunedin and Buffalo in the past week, allowing only 1 hit, 1 walk, and striking out 5.  Is he the answer?

2. Divisional Problems

The Jays entered 2013 as one of the favourites to win the AL East.  Through seven weeks of the schedule, they find themselves in dead last, 10 games back of the Yankees.  While a lot of things have gone wrong so far this year, the biggest reason they find themselves at the bottom of the division is their inability to beat the teams within it.

After their mini two game sweep at the hands of New York this past weekend, Toronto dropped to a miserable 1-8 against the Yankees.  Add to that a 4-5 record against Boston, 1-2 against Balitmore, and a 2-2 mark against the Rays. and Toronto is a disappointing 8-17 against their fiercest rivals.  That will not get it done.

If there is ever going to be a chance to set things back on course, it has to start now.  The Jays welcome Tampa Bay and Baltimore to the dome for seven games this week.  A winning record is mandatory, and anything less than 5-2 will be a real disappointment.  There is some good news, however – they can finally say so long to the Yankees.  The two clubs don’t meet again until August 20th.  Hopefully by then Vernon and Lyle will be back to the normal, terrible, selves.

3. Waiting for Brett

.193 / .256 / .360 / .616

That is not the slash line that anybody expected out of Brett Lawrie in 2013.  Yes he did miss the first bit of the season, and yes he didn’t get much of a spring training to get going.  But he has now logged 125 plate appearances on the season, so the sample size is getting larger…and the production numbers are not.

He got off to a great start last week, going 4 for 8 with two runs and two doubles against the Giants, but was once again overmatched by the Yankees: 0 for 7 in two games.  He is still providing great defense, and his energy levels remain through the roof, so it’s not like he is pulling the team down in a myriad of ways.  But a few more hits would be nice.

They say that baseball is a very mental game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brett’s struggles are in his head.  Looking up at the scoreboard and seeing a batting average below the Mendoza line is enough to make a guy press harder.  As soon as that average ticks above that mark, maybe into the .210′s, I think we’ll see Brett go on a huge hot streak.  In fact – it’s a 500 Level Fan guarantee!

Finally – something good!

Seven games against fierce AL East rivals, all on the road, and – gasp! – a winning record!

Despite injuries to the rotation, the Jays finally received some offense, some timely hitting, and a quality performance from Mark Buehrle to maybe, finally (please?!) turn the corner on what has been a miserable 2013. 

The team was never as bad as they looked in the first month and a bit, and hopefully they will finally start to meet expectations.

Here are three things from week 6:

Week 6: May 6 – May 12

Record: 4 – 3

1. Joey Bats is Back!

When the Jays made the major acquisitions to their roster in the offseason, they brought in more than just talented players – they brought in veteran leaders.  Players like Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and R.A. Dickey were supposed to make the team better both on and off the field.

But one thing is clear – despite bringing those guys in, this is Jose Bautista’s team.  As he goes, the Blue Jays go, and it was no coincidence that as he struggled to find his timing, the Jays struggled to put wins in the win column.

After last week, things have hopefully changed for the better.  Bautista had a massive week at the dish, going 9 for 25, good for a .360 average, 1.158 OPS, with 2 HR and 7 RBI.  While the two home runs were nice, a much better sign (believe it or not) were the three doubles and four singles he collected.  In the early part of the season it was painfully obvious that Bautista and the rest of the Jays were swinging for the fences, trying to overcome for slow starts in one swing.  Just as obvious was the fact that it wasn’t working.  Home runs are nice, but extended rallies are much, much nicer.  The best way to generate extended rallies is to get runners on base.  With seven non-HR hits, to go along with four walks and a hit-by-pitch, Bautista did just that.

Jose leads by example.  With him getting on base, the rest of the team will follow.

2. The Melk Man Cometh

Melky Cabrera got off to a miserable start for the Toronto Blue Jays.  A good portion of the struggles may have been mental, as he tried to prove to everybody that he could perform without the use of PED’s.  He looked to be trying too hard to make things happen, similar to what Bautista was doing.  But once Melky relaxed and started swinging the bat, his fortunes have turned around…big time.

In the seven games played last week, Cabrera hit an even .300.  Though the power has not arrived yet, he did slug four doubles, good for a .746 OPS.  He was able to raise his season batting average from .252 to .261 and his season OPS from .609 to .635.  Neither number is where he’d ideally like to be, but progress is being made.  Up is better than down.

This upcoming week should be very interesting for Melky.  Tuesday and Wednesday see the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants invade Toronto.  Cabrera, of course, was a key contributor to that Giants team until his suspension.  From what has been said in the media, many of his former teammates have not forgiven him for the PED bust last year, and there is no love lost between them. 

Jays fans would love to see him prove the Giants wrong with a big series.

3. Makeshift Rotation

Remember when 2013′s starting rotation looked like a strength?  Those were the days…

One look at it now leads to gasps of disbelief.  Chad Jenkins?  Ramon Ortiz?  Yes sir!  With Josh Johnson and J.A. Happ both on the DL, and with Brandon Morrow having his spot skipped not once, not twice, but thrice (now slated to go Saturday in New York instead of Wednesday), the rotation has turned into a patchwork quilt, made up of youngsters and has-beens. 

The good (or lucky) news, is that both Ortiz and Jenkins fared quite well in Boston on the weekend.  40 year old Ortiz tossed five solid innings Friday night, allowing 1 ER, and 4 hits, but the 5 walks issued suggests that his success isn’t very sustainable.  The 25 year old Jenkins allowed 2 ER in 5 IP on Sunday striking out two and walking only one.  The Jays went 1-1 in those two starts.

Ortiz is slated to go again on Wednesday, and the word is that one of the two will be forced to start next Monday as well.  With supposed ace R.A. Dickey still battling neck and back pain, things are looking bleak for the pitching staff. 

In Buehrle we trust.  (Yikes.)

2013 just keeps getting harder for Blue Jays fans.  After taking a 4-3 lead to the seventh inning in Tampa last night, the bullpen couldn’t hold it, leading to a 5-4 loss in extra innings.  And while many will point the finger at Brad Lincoln for walking two straight hitters (including a bases loaded walk to lose), or John Gibbons for intentionally walking James Loney, neither of those moments was the real problem.  Neither delivered the real sucker punch to the gut.

No, that came in the bottom of the seventh, when Steve Delabar gave up a leadoff home run to Yunel Escobar to knot the score at four.

The fact that the lead was gone on one pitch stings.  But that fact that it was a former Jay sticking it to his old team makes it that much harder to take.

It feels like this has been happening a lot this year – a former member of our team wreaking havoc on this year’s version.  It seems like every series a former Jay is coming up big to steal a win against his old club.

To see just how bad it has been, I decided to compile some numbers. 

By my count, there have been 10 former Blue Jays to come to the plate against Toronto this  year: Dewayne Wise and Alex Rios of the White Sox; Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix, Vernon Wells, and Ben Francisco of the  Yankees; and Jose Molina, Ryan Roberts, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson of the Rays.

As you can see from the above chart, it’s not just a figment of our imaginations – ex Jays actually ARE destroying us this year.  With an OPS of .811, 8 HR, 17 RBI, and 27 runs scored, former Blue Jays are performing at an elite level when they play against us.  And what hurts even more is that a lot of the big hits have been timely, such as Escobar last night, or Overbay against Dickey in New York, or Vernon Wells killing the Jays in the dome.

It can even be worse.  If you really wanted to, you could technically add Mike Napoli’s name to the above chart.  Though he never actually played a game with the Jays, he was a member of the team for a few days in January 2011.  And judging by the way he has pounded Blue Jay pitching this year,  he must have really hated the way he was treated between January 21 and January 25, 2011:

Mike Napoli vs. Toronto in 2013

27 AB, 7 Hits, 7 Runs Scored, 3 2B, 4 HR, 11 RBI, .259 AVG, .815 SLG, 1.101 OPS

Of course, we can even take it one step further and include John Farrell.  The former manager bolted to the Red Sox over the winter, and has led his new team to a 4-2 record against the Jays, with all six games coming in Toronto.

In short, ex-Jays are killing us.

And if you think it will get easier, think again.  In the next 11 games Toronto faces:

Boston (with Napoli and Farrell)

San Francisco (with Marco Scutaro and Guillermo Quiroz)

New York (Overbay, Nix, Wells, Francisco)

Tampa Bay (Roberts, Molina, Escobar, Johnson)

Oh no…

photo from mlb.com

June 5th, 2007.

That date, nearly six years ago, now has three things in common with May 6th, 2013:

1. The Toronto Blue Jays played Tampa Bay.

2. John Gibbons and Joe Maddon were the managers.

3. The Jays overturned a 7-run deficit to win a game they had no business winning.

The Blue Jays team that took the field that Tuesday night was an interesting mix of age and youth, of big names and no-names:

- Alex Rios

- Vernon Wells

- Matt Stairs

- Frank Thomas

- Troy Glaus

- Aaron Hill

- Adam Lind

- Sal Fasano

- John McDonald

I remember that game fondly, because I was at the dome to see it.  A group of us decided to stick around for the whole game, despite Toronto falling behind 8-1 in the 4th, and 11-6 in the 9th.  While many made for the exits, we kept drinking and cheering, and it paid off.

I vividly remember the ninth inning rally, friends and I going mental when they started chipping away at the lead.  Aaron Hill walked to lead off the ninth, followed by back-to-back RBI doubles from Lind and Jason Phillips.  After another walk and a groundout, Wells and Stairs went back-to-back with doubles to bring in three more and tie the score.  Three more walks followed, allowing Matt Stairs to trot in with the winning run and complete the massive comeback.

There were high fives, there were embraces, and there were huge smiles. 

Of the many things that have been missing in this abysmal start to 2013, a huge smile is the one that hurts the most.  Baseball is a fun game, and being a fan of a team is supposed to bring fun and joy, not disappointment.  Too often this year the Jays have delivered the fan base nothing but heartache and anger, fuelled by bases-loaded double plays, opponent grand slams, and errors aplenty.

Down 7-0 after three innings last night, things were once again bleak.  Gone was the momentum the team built by pounding Seattle on Sunday.  Gone was the goodwill and the little slice of hope that the team delivered to fans after finally coming through with the bats.

Mark Buehrle was getting pulverized.  The bats were quiet.  And to make matters worse, the Jays were playing in Tampa Bay, at Tropicana Field, the place where, for the past several seasons, their season has died.

But they started chipping away, bit by bit.  A single and a bomb scored two.  A couple of walks then a single cut the lead to four.  Another HR by big, bad DeRosa brought us ever closer.

And then came two key plays, two plays that would have ruined everything as soon as one week ago.  Two plays, for their futility and for the way the team overcame them, that may define the rest of the season.

Bautista’s baserunning blunder in the 7th inning, getting thrown out at the plate for the first out, ruined a golden chance to score.  Tell me honestly – if that would have happened in a game last week, would Toronto have overcome it?  I think they would have finished the game weakly, too disillusioned to fight any harder. 

Then in the 9th, down by one, tying run on third and nobody out.  All Rasmus or Izturis need to do is put a ball in the outfield.  Anywhere.  With Bonifacio on third, he can score on just about any fly ball.  But Rasmus whiffed, terribly.  Izturis hit a sharp grounder, but right to first.  Suddenly, two outs.  No longer does a fly ball do anything.

Again, tell me – do you see this team rebounding from that if it happened a week ago?  With all the negativity that was surrounding the squad, with the belief that nothing was going to go right, I have a hard time picturing them recovering.

But something was different.  Maybe the win on Sunday, with the team finally getting hits, finally scoring runs, and finally overcoming adversity, has changed the mentality.  Maybe the belief that things will turn around and that this team is good has returned. 

When Arencibia launched the game winning bomb with two strikes, it felt like an enormous weight was lifted – not only off the team, but off the fans as well. 

With the first back-to-back wins since April 12-13, we can finally cheer again. 

Finally – something to smile about.

April showers bring May flowers.

So the saying goes.  Jays fans everywhere were hoping the same thing applied to the team, that April’s struggles and bad play would lead to a focused and determined team in May, ready to make amends for a poor start and charge up the standings.

Sadly that didn’t happen. 

Toronto started May 0-4, and scored only three runs in the process.  Though they rebounded with a nice win yesterday, a win where they finally looked like the team we all thought they’d be, things look very, very bleak.

Especially with a trip to Tampa Bay up next.

Here are three things from week 5:

Week 5: April 29 – May 5

Record: 2 – 4

1. Dome Not Sweet Dome

Playing at home is supposed to be a good thing.  Your fans give you an edge, and having last at-bat is a huge advantage.  But home field hasn’t been kind to the Jays in 2013 so far.  Toronto went 2-4 on just completed 6-game homestand, and were outscored by a total of 12 runs.  They even had  a stretch of 23 consecutive scoreless innings.  Not good.

This recent home debacle dropped Toronto’s home record to a dismal 7-12, with a -32 run differential.  Only Cleveland, the Angels, and Houston have losing home records to date. 

But the problem isn’t the fact that they’re losing (though don’t get me wrong – it is a problem).  No, the problem is with HOW they are losing.  They are getting blown out, kicked around, destroyed.  They put pitchers on the ropes early then let them off the hook.  They can’t hold leads.  In short, they look lost on the field, and when players look bad on the field, fans get angry off the field.  Never was that more evident than on Saturday, when R.A. Dickey was booed off the mound.

The Jays will be spending the next seven days on the road, away from the unhappy masses.  Hopefully they play a bit looser, because if they come home with more losses, things are only going to get uglier.

2. What To Do With Lind?

Adam Lind is becoming a curious enigma in Toronto.  He can’t hit lefties, and he no longer plays every day because of it . Lind appeared in four games last week, starting only three of them.  When he does play, he looks feeble at the plate.  He is hitting only .226, with four extra base hits.  He is striking out with the bases loaded and leaving guys on base.  He only has 3 RBI on the season – a third of Mark DeRosa.

However, Lind – believe it or not – leads the team in on base percentage, with a .391 mark.  That would be good enough for 15th in the AL if he had enough at-bats to qualify.  That is mostly due to his improved batting eye.  He has drawn 15 walks on the season, two fewer than Jose Bautista for the team lead, and tied for 15th in the AL. 

On one hand, you can make a case that he should be in the lineup more often, batting second in front of Bautista and Encarnacion, and giving them RBI opportunities.  On the other hand, you can make a case that he shouldn’t be playing at all.  At least not batting fifth, where his 0 HR and weak bat limit run scoring chances.

It’s a tough conundrum for Gibbons, but sadly, there aren’t any other options…

3. Ricky is Back…

…and not much has changed.  Things started out well enough for Romero, but crumbled quickly, something Jays fans got used to seeing in 2012.  He faced the minimum in the first three innings, picking up three strikeouts.  But things fell apart in the fourth . Three walks, a hit batter, a wild pitch, a home run, and a single, and suddenly Romero found himself trailing by three.  He didn’t come out for the fifth.

This wouldn’t be much of an issue if the “minor” injury to Josh Johnson was actually, you know…minor.  But the latest word is that Johnson won’t be back until the end of May at the earliest, meaning Romero will be here to stay.  With the Jays sitting at 11-21 and already 9.5 games back of Boston, he can’t afford to throw anymore four inning duds.  We need all the wins we can get.

Are they still talented?  Yes.  Can they turn it around?  Certainly.  Can things get any worse?  I don’t think so.

But are they still a shoo-in for the playoffs?  No.  Are we still guaranteed meaningful games in September?  Maybe…but maybe not.

Have no fear though.

Because 500 Level Fan is here to cheer you up on a Friday with 2013′s first installment of the Fan of the Game series!

For those of you new to the site, the 500 Level Fan of the Game is reserved for extraordinary fans – and by extraordinary I don’t really mean “great” – I mean “strange”.  In the past we’ve seen a grown man licking a cooked chicken breast, a large man that resembled children’s cartoon character Pingu, a Sam Crenshaw look-a-like, and a he/she wearing a gold outfit.  Click on the “FLF of the Game” category to view the history.

Today we unveil a first – a personalized jersey!  Any sports fan knows that personalizing jerseys is a faux pas.  Putting one’s own last name on any team’s jersey is tacky, corny, and just plain wrong.  Then there is a step below that – those who put slogans on a jersey.  Think of Leafs jerseys with the number 67, and above that “Winless Since” where the name should be.  Really?  Like….really??

And then, thanks to @TweetsByRules, there is this from last night:

And to make things better – a moustache!!!

Incredible.

So take heart Jays fans.  No matter how bad the product on the field might be, we’re in safe hands with a Killer in the crowd.

Feel free to send in any strange fans you see at a Jays game to fivehundredlevelfan@gmail.com.

How to summarize last night’s game?  How about like this:

- Things started out great

- Things got bad

- Things got really bad and ugly

- Things ended well

That about do it?

In the course of a normal season, last night’s game would have been outstanding – a potential game of the year candidate.  It had everything: lead changes, comebacks, massive home runs, sloppy play, good pitching, bad pitching, and a Blue Jays victory.

But, of course, 2013 is anything but a normal season.  Sitting at 9-17 and already 9.5 games behind Boston in the East, Toronto could not afford another loss . Already hemorrhaging fans at an alarming pace, and with the #FireGibbons movement picking up steam, the Jays had to stop the bleeding.  A win was mandatory.

And just like it seemed like fans were going to be (finally) satisfied, the 7th inning happened.  By the 7th, a 4-0 lead had already slipped to 4-3, grown to 6-3, then slipped to 6-4.  With one on and one out, a tailor made double play ball was hit to Kawasaki at short . He promptly threw it away.  A walk and a double later, the Jays are down 7-6, and the world is over.

Thankfully Edwin destroyed a pitch in the bottom of the inning to reclaim the lead and the Jays hung on for the much needed win.

But again – this has not been a normal year, so although it felt great to break the losing streak and to beat the best team in the division. you can’t help but think about the problems, such as:

- The pitching.  Staked to a 4-0 lead, Brandon Morrow just couldn’t make the pitches he needed in order to wrap the game up.  He gave up two home runs in the fourth, then three singles in the fifth, and never even made it out to see the sixth inning.

- The offense . Yes they scored nine runs, but they were gifted two on a terrible error by Saltalamacchia and scored four on home runs – and in reality they easily could have scored much, much more.  They had a runner on second with one out in the first and failed to bring him home.  They had the bases loaded with nobody out in the third, and only the error saved them from disaster.  The strikeouts are still high (Rasmus, Bonficacio, and Cabrera each K’d twice), and Cabrera, Bonifacio, and Izturis continue to be terrible at the dish.

- The defense.  Officially, the error was given to Kawasaki, but the fault was clearly with Maicer Izturis.  The toss may have been a bit off, but it was catchable.  The effort to catch the ball was just plain feeble. 

Just plain feeble is a good way to describe Izturis thus far.  I was high on him in the offseason, but he has been unimpressive at best.  He has a .193 average, .510 OPS, and only 4 extra base hits in 83 at bats.  His mediocre at best defense doens’t come anywhere close to bailing him out either.

But hey – a win’s a win. 

In my mind, if Toronto can hang around the .500 mark and stay within 7-10 games of first until Reyes is back, they have a chance. 

One game at a time…

It feels like the mid-to-late ’90′s all over again. 

Remember back in those days?  Remember watching a Jays game, and no matter what the score was, you just had the nagging feeling like they were going to lose?  One run, two run, five runs – it didn’t matter the size of the lead.  You just knew the loss was coming, and there was nothing that could be done to avoid it.

After a 1-6 road trip that saw the Jays lose all four games in New York, I have that feeling again.

Here are three things from week 4:

Week 4: April 22 – April 28

Record: 1 – 6

1. 9 – 17

No matter how much we want it to, the above number does not refer to September 17th.  Sadly, it is the Blue Jays record through 26 games of the season.  Many people thought the Jays weren’t as good as they were being hyped to be, including myself.  After all, if you believed all you read, Toronto should have started 24 – 2.  But even the doubters have to be shocked by what’s happened.

The 9 – 17 record is the third worst in the entire major leagues.  When you consider that neither Houston or Miami is really fielding a major league team, then the Jays are actually the worst club in baseball thus far.  And although recently you can point to bad luck and fluky losses, the fact remains that Toronto is terrible in every category.  Their 130 runs allowed is second worst in baseball.  The -35 run differential is third worst.  They rank 27th in team OBP at .291, 27th in team ERA at 4.46, and 29th in fielding with a -18 zone rating.

In a nutshell: they can’t hit, they can’t pitch, and they can’t field.  They have all the makings of a last place team.

2. Silver Lining

If there is a silver lining, it’s this: the top two in the rotation are starting to come around.  R.A. Dickey made two starts last week amid lingering back and neck pain.  He had a very rocky second inning in Baltimore on Tuesday, but after that was lights out.  He finished that start with four scoreless innings, then held the Yankees to four hits over seven innings yesterday.  Brandon Morrow, on Wednesday, limited the O’s to three hits in 6.1 IP.

That’s the good news.  Any contending team needs the front of its rotation to deliver quality starts in order to have a chance at the postseason.  The bad news, however, is that they still combined to issue nine walks in those three starts, and the Jays lost two of the three.  So while the pitching has improved, it still isn’t good enough.

And there’s worse news – Josh Johnson was scratched on Friday, Dickey will be going for an MRI on his neck and back issues, Aaron Laffey was terrible in a spot start, and Mark Buehrle has been just awful all year long.  Never thought I’d say this, but thank goodness for J.A. Happ!

3. #FireGibbons

The above has become quite a popular hashtag on Twitter these days.  And why not?  Picked to guide a rebuilt team into the playoffs for the first time in 20 years, Gibbons has instead guided the team to dead last in the AL East.

But really – is it his fault?  He has already used 23 different batting orders in 26 games, an indication that he isn’t simply throwing the same team out there day in and day out.  He is using platoon situations to his advantage, sitting Rasmus and Lind against tough lefties, moving Lawrie and Kawasaki up the order as they have improved, and shuffling Melky Cabrera between second and fifth.  His bullpen management has been pretty good.  He’s even been ejected twice, showing that he will get animated and stand up for his team.

So why the hatred?  Is it because he wasn’t a sexy pick for the managerial role?  Because fans wanted Sandy Alomar Jr., or Ryne Sandberg, or another high profile name?  Is it because people heavily drank the Kool-Aid and expected the team to have 20+ wins already? 

It’s easy to forget that teams need time to mesh.  It’s easy to forget that Toronto was pretty heavily impacted by the World Baseball Classic and didn’t have a real Spring Training Camp.  And it’s easy to forget that Gibbons himself can’t hit, field, or pitch.  But think about this: in 2010/11, the Miami Heat were expected to romp over the NBA.  But after 20.7% of the schedule was played, the talented team was 9-8, and people were caling for the head of their not-so-famous head coach Erik Spoelstra. 

They turned out to be pretty good, didn’t they?

True story #1: I love the Blue Jays.  Baseball has been my favourite sport, and the Blue Jays my favourite sports team, since I was a little kid.

True story #2: 2013 was supposed to be a season to remember.  To this point, 2013 has been the most disappointing season of my life.

It’s early.  Even though the calendar switches to May in a few days there are a lot of games left to be played.  It’s not as early as it was after the first few weeks, but it’s still early.

But despite the fact that it’s early, I’m frustrated.  So to counteract my frustration I decided to do the unthinkable – take a half week hiatus from the team I love.  I watched virtually none of the Yankees series, far too frustrated to be able to watch it calmly.  Watching the Jays lose game after game was brutal.

Well, this didn’t sit well with one of my fans.  (Yes, believe it or not, 500 Level Fan has some loyal readers!).

What follows is a conversation between myself and @TheCraiger – fan of the Jays, of 500 Level Fan, of beer in Vancouver, and of beautiful women.

@TheCraiger: As a loyal reader of the blog, the fact that you have decided to not watch for a while concerns me. Knowing how much you love baseball, I’m sure you’re likely buried deep in the bowels of the 2013 baseball stats crunching numbers for future posts. However, I have a small rant.  No back-up, no proof.  Only my opinion.  Will you hear me out?

500 Level Fan: Absolutely.  But first – don’t be concerned about the hiatus.  I’m not giving up on the team.  It’s just tough to watch right now.  It’s like when you’re online dating and the girl you actually meet up with looks nothing like the beautiful photo she posted on her profile.  Or when you order a pint of delicious, micro-brewed beer and accidentally get a Bud Light.  It’s awful.  It’s disappointing.  The reality has not matched the potential, and I just needed a few days away from watching it.

@TheCraiger:  Here are the issues I have with this team so far.  First is home runs.  Everyone is trying to hit them.  Shorten the swing and let the HR’s come organically.  More importantly, play some small ball and get more runners on base.  From there they will get into scoring position.  The Jays will probably strike out less as a result of some focus. Be smart at the plate and think about the team, idiots.

500 Level Fan:  Fully agree.  The averages, the on base percentages, they’re all garbage.  I think a big part of the problem is the “be a hero” approach of hitting home runs.  You can tell during each at bat – players are swinging for the fences.  Here’s a stat for you: the Blue Jays are tied with the Yankees with 33 HR – most in the AL.  Yet the Jays have scored 16 fewer runs than New York.  They’ve scored 36 fewer runs than Oakland, yet the A’s have slugged only 24 home runs.  Too many of Toronto’s HR’s are solo shots because EVERYBODY wants to hit one.

@TheCraiger:  Here’s my second issue: arrogance.  The team has a harmful aura of arrogance fuelled by all the pre-season media hype.  The Jays had their chance to swagger their faces off and strut around like ego maniacs. All they needed to do is have a good start and play good baseball.  Well, they crapped the bed and that ship has sailed.  Be humble and play smart baseball, idiots.

500 Level Fan: Arrogance!  I like it!  It certainly seems like they thought things were going to be easy, at least easier than they have been.  It’s almost like this team needed adversity to come together.  Then they got it with the Reyes injury, but the losses have kept coming.  What they really need is to hit rock bottom.  Maybe being swept by the Yankees and seeing guys like Lyle Overbay and Vernon Wells beat them will give them the kick in the pants they need.  There better not be any more arrogance…

@TheCraiger:  Brett Lawrie – someone neuter him.  The human body can only run at 100%.  Brett forces his body to run at 180%, and this will cost him.  At this rate, he will be on the DL in 2 weeks.  Prediction: Brett will start the second half of the year on the DL.  Treat your body with respect and you will have a decent season, idiot.

500 Level Fan: I might let him save his nuts, but see where you’re coming from.  I like his style play, but he needs to stop arguing balls and strikes.  You’re not going to get any close calls if you do that.

@TheCraiger:  Ricky: it’s official, this man is a head case.  Bye Ricky, you idiot.

500 Level Fan: Like it or not, I think they have too much invested in him to simply let him go.  Plus, if it means anything, his first start for Dunedin went well!

@TheCraiger:  My biggest issue with the team, though, is Gibbons.  AA has given Gibbons a second chance.  After seeing three of his various post-game press conferences, it’s clear he is not a baseball man.  That or he just doesn’t care.  I’m not saying fire him…yet…but the turnaround starts with him.  Get control of your team, idiot.

500 Level Fan:  I think Gibbons is a very respected baseball man, who spent many years as a bench coach after his managerial stint with the Jays.  And like it or not, he’s not going anywhere either.  This is very much AA’s team now.  He inherited a mess left by Ricciardi, spent years building the farm system up to turn the Jays into a contender, and has now cashed in on that.  For better or worse, AA has pegged Gibbons to be the man to guide his team.  Firing him now would be admitting that he picked the wrong man for the job, a move that would look terrible on him.  It would also make it harder to attract other top managers and free agents, because who wants to go a team that gets rid of you only 16% into the season?  Gibbons might not carry himself well in post-game press conferences, but let’s be honest here – the man can’t hit.  That’s the biggest problem of all with this team – not the lineups, not the bullpen management, and not the base running.  It’s the hitting and fielding, and Gibbons can’t control either of those.  Sadly, Gibbons’ main problem was that he was a surprise choice to lead the team, so anything less than amazing results will lead to tons of armchair fans to say “I told you so.”

@TheCraiger.  This year is by no means over, but they need to figure it out.  Idiots.

500 Level Fan:  Fully agree.  If they are still eight games under .500 come June, then I think we’re in trouble.  Now?  We’ll be OK.

And even better – the half week hiatus is over.