It’s a glorious time of year: Spring Training has arrived!

With the Jays set to hold their first team workouts later today, I thought I’d take a look at Toronto’s major storylines heading into the spring and the 2012 season in general.

Presented in no particular order, here are the five biggest questions facing Toronto, and my view on what will happen.  These are not necessarily going to be answered in the spring, but will definitely be talked about.

Story: Who plays left field?

Issue: It looks like a two-horse race between Eric Thames and Travis Snider, with Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis likely relegated to bench status.  Snider has been a top prospect for what seems like an eternity with the Blue Jays, but has failed to live up to expectations.  To be fair, he hasn’t been given much of a chance (24 games in ’08, 77 in ’09, 82 in ’10, and 49 in ’11) with injuries and demotions limiting his playing time.  The Jays made it seem like they would give him a full year at the big league level last year, only to pull the rug out from under him in late April and ship him off to Vegas. 

Thames made his major league debut in May last year and had a pretty good 95 games (.262/.313/.456/.769).  His patience at the plate needs to improve (only 23 walks in 392 plate appearances), but he showed a decent amount of pop, hitting 12 HR.

My View: Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Snider is still only 24 years old, and is actually a year younger than Thames.  I would love to see Travis figure it out and stick with the big club, but I don’t think that will happen at the beginning of the season.  I bet that Thames wins the job out of spring training and earns the first crack at major league success.  Two reasons why I think this: 1) the Jays front office and manager have already gone on record to say that Thames has a slight advantage in the battle, and 2) Thames was taken on the Jays Winter Tour to meet and greet fans, while Snider wasn’t. 

I still believe in Travis, but he’ll have to wait a bit longer.

Story: What Colby Rasmus shows up?

Issue: In 2009, Baseball America ranked Colby Rasmus as the #3 prospect in all of baseball.  In his first two seasons he showed great promise, finishing 8th in NL ROY voting in ’09, then blasting 23 HR with an .859 OPS in his sophomore season.  But things fell apart for him last year.  He was the subject of negative press in St .Louis about his attitude, and feuded with manager Tony La Russa.  Upon being traded to Toronto, he hurt his wrist and only managed a paltry .173 average and .517 OPS in 35 games.  A small sample size, but also very troubling and worrisome results.  So what Colby Rasmus will emerge for Toronto in 2012: the uber-prospect dripping with potential, or the underachieving enigma? 

My View: I’m not ready to give up on Colby.  I think he is in store for a big year, one that will restore faith in him.  It might not be a 35 HR, .350 average type of year, but a good, solid season (20 HR, .800 + OPS).  Dealing with the negativity that surrounded him, and then adding a trade and an injury to that was a pretty serious burden in 2011, one that would impact the performance of many players.  The main reason I see him having a good year is hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.  In 2010 the Jays had a player on the roster who was a career underachiever.  Entering the 2010 season he had a career .729 OPS and had disappointed fans for several years.  Then he worked with Dwayne Murphy and emerged into the most complete hitter in the major leagues.  I’m not saying Rasmus will follow Jose Bautista, but I think Murphy might be able to push him on the same path. 

Story: Who pitches in the starting rotation?

Issue: With Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Henderson Alvarez likely locked into the top three spots, the big question is who fills the fourth and fifth.  Early speculation has Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan taking the mound, but both of those guys have a ton of question marks surrounding them.  Cecil took a step back last year and McGowan missed two years with injuries.  Will Cecil rebound?  Can McGowan stay healthy?  Or will Kyle Drabek, Jessie Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, or maybe even a rookie like Drew Hutchinson or Deck McGuire get a shot?

My View: Brett Cecil will likely start the season in the rotation.  He has prior experience, he’s left handed, and he seems to be in the Jays future plans.  McGowan is out of options meaning he can’t be sent down without being exposed to waivers.  For that reason I can see him starting the season in the rotation.  However, I think Litsch or Villanueva will ultimately get that spot, with McGowan heading to the bullpen. 

Story: Will Brandon Morrow finally put it all together?

Issue: Morrow is one of Toronto’s most dominating – and frustrating – starting pitchers. He can pitch an 8-inning gem with three hits, no runs, and 12 strikeouts, then follow it up with a 3-inning, 6 run disaster.  Now, fresh off a contract extension, and with the weight of being the Jays number two starter, will Morrow be able to harness his potential and pitch like the ace that he has the ability to be?

My View: In short, yes.  Morrow reduced his walk rate last year, and kept up his lofty strikeout rates, a very encouraging sign.  He also comes to camp knowing that he will be a full time starter with no restrictions – no threats of a bullpen demotion, and no innings limits.  This is his year.

Story: Will J.P. Arencibia be behind the plate for a full season?

Issue: Arencibia is one of the American League’s most promising young catchers.  He has elite power, and his defensive play improved a great deal last year.  There are two problems, however.  One is that when he isn’t hitting home runs, he doesn’t do much else.  A .282 OBP with 133 strikeouts in 486 plate appearances last year is not good.  The second problem is that Toronto’s top prospect is Travis D’Arnaud, who is projecting to be an elite major league player.  D’Arnaud also plays the catcher position.  Uh-oh.  If JPA can’t improve at the plate, he might be watching D’Arnaud take his starting spot.

My View: He has a career .319 OBP in the minors, including a .359 OBP in his final season in AAA Vegas, so it’s not like he can’t hit.  But there is a big difference between the minors and the majors, and to this point nothing suggests that Arencibia will be able to do enough to remain Toronto’s catcher of the future.  I hope I’m wrong, but I can see a scenario with JPA starting the year as a Jay and finishing it somewhere else.

Back in early November I posted my annual Free Agency prediction column where I intelligently prognosticated guessed where 10 of the top free agents in baseball would end up.  You can read the original post here.  With spring training just around the corner, I thought now would be a good time to take a look back and see how many I got right.

As usual, I didn’t do well…

The “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” Division

Albert Pujols

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Actual: Los Angeles Angels

I still find it shocking that he left St. Louis, the city that treated him like gold from the moment he arrived and where he won two World Series rings.  Money talks though, and it’s tough to say no to a quarter of a billion dollars.  I’m pretty sure I wasn’t alone in thinking he’d re-sign.

Heath Bell

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Actual: Miami Marlins

Still seems weird to call them the “Miami” Marlins, and not the Florida Marlins.  After hearing for so long that he didn’t want to leave and that he’d take a hometown discount to stay, Bell bolted for Miami and a huge (and hugely awful) 3-year $27-million contract.  It might hurt on the field, but at that price San Diego is much better off without him.

The “I Guess I’ll Stay” Division

Jonathan Papelbon

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Actual: Philadelphia Phillies

In what was perhaps the worst of any free agent contract, the Phillies will pay Papelbon $50-million over four years.  This was made to look even worse when Ryan Madson, Philly’s 2011 closer, signed a 1-year $8.5-million deal with the Reds not long after.  I thought Boston would do everything they could to keep him, but the new front office apparently had no interest.  For once, I agree with the Red Soc.

Carlos Beltran

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Actual: St. Louis Cardinals

From what I heard, the Giants might have never been a factor in signing him, which is a bit strange considering all the run production they lack.  If Pujols would have stayed, Beltran never would have signed with St. Louis (and neither would anybody else for the next 10 years at that price), but credit the Cardinals for doing what they could to fill his shoes.

Jimmy Rollins

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Actual: Philadelphia Phillies

Hey, hey!  I got one right!  In reality, this was almost a no-brainer.  There was no way Rollins was ever going anywhere. 

The Logical Train of Thought Division

David Ortiz

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Actual: Boston Red Sox

I believed the hype that Ortiz would join his buddy Jose Bautista in Toronto.  That likely was never going to happen, with the threat of him moving simply driving up the price.  Ortiz is a Boston lifer.

C.J. Wilson

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Actual: Los Angeles Angels

Nailed another one.  If anybody was going to overpay for C.J. I guessed it would be the Angels, for two reasons: 1 – they needed to make a splash after missing the playoffs, and 2 – signing Wilson would directly hurt division rival Texas.  I was bang on (for a change).

The “I Have Absolutely No Idea” Division

Aramis Ramirez

Prediction: Miami Marlins

Actual: Milwaukee Brewers

Question: if Ryan Braun wouldn’t have been hit with a (potential) 50-game suspension, would the Brewers have made this move?  We knew they had to do something to replace Prince, but losing Braun might have pushed them harder.  Who knows.  I envisioned him jumping on board with the Marlins, who needed a third baseman at the time.  With a cantankerous Hanley Ramirez waffling on whether or not he wants to play 3B, maybe they still do…

Jose Reyes

Prediction: Washington Nationals

Actual: Miami Marlins

Washington seemed ready to make a splash in free agency, and I thought Reyes was the guy.  I was wrong.  However, I did predict that somebody would overpay him to stay in the NL East.  I was right about that.  Thank you Marlins.

Prince Fielder

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Actual: Detroit Tigers

I think it’s fair to say that nobody expected Detroit to be in the mix for Prince.  And to be fair, if Victor Martinez wouldn’t have injured himself, I don’t think they would have been.  But things happen, and credit the Tigers for reacting fast and filling a huge hole.  Unfortunately for them, I have a good feeling that the 9-year $214-million deal won’t look nearly this good a few years down the road.

How did I do? 

2 for 10. 

Hang your head 500 Level Fan…

It was announced yesterday that Casey Janssen signed a two year contract extension with Toronto, keeping him with the club through 2013 (with a team option for 2014).

On the surface, the deal doesn’t appear to be groundbreaking.  Janssen isn’t a closer – he isn’t even a regular set-up man – so why should fans be excited?  Signing a bullpen arm, unless they are a big name closer, rarely makes waves.  It rarely even makes ripples.

But Janssen is different.  In my opinion he is Toronto’s best reliever.  It might shock some to hear me say that.  After all, you’re not going to see him on the highlight reels.  He doesn’t pile up saves.  He doesn’t throw 100 miles-per-hour.  He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys like other relievers. 

So why do I think he’s the best?  It’s precisely because you don’t see him on the highlight reels.  Relief pitchers are an awful lot like referees and umpires – you only hear about them when they do a bad job.  For the most part, the only baseball umpires, or hockey/football/basketball/soccer refs that make the news are those that blow calls, miss offsides, etc.  Similarly, the only time non-closers really make the highlights are when they are falling apart and blowing games.

Janssen doesn’t do that.  In the past few years he has developed into a model of consistency.  And coming out of a Blue Jays bullpen that has featured guys like Kevin Gregg, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Shawn Camp the past few years, consistency is VERY important.

After missing the entire 2008 season due to injury, Janssen has slowly clawed his back into relevance.  From ’09 (when he was tested as a starter for five games) to ’11, his ERA has dropped each year (5.85 to 3.67 to 2.26).  That 2.26 ERA was second best out of Toronto’s bullpen last year, only bettered by Carlos Villanueva’s 1.60 – but CV only pitched 33.2 innings out the ‘pen.

In terms of the entire American League, Janssen ranks favourably as well. There were a total of 55 relievers who threw a minimun of 50 IP in 2011.  Janssen’s 2.26 ERA was 10th best (7th best among non-closers).  His 1.10 WHIP ranked 15th (11th among non-closers), and his K/BB ratio of 3.79 was good enough for 8th in the AL (4th among non-closers):

For the devils advocates out there, there is an easy counter-argument to the above tables, and it is this: guys like Uehara, Robertson, Rivera, Papelbon, League, and the rest, are closers and set-up guys.  As such, they inherently face higher leverage situations, meaning the innings they pitch are more difficult.  For a lot of situations this is true, but it also doesn’t mean that Janssen simply pitches in blowouts.  Looking at Baseball Reference’s leverage index, about a third of the batters that Janssen faced were in high leverage situations.  Yes a typical closer will face about 45% of batter in high leverage situations, but the difference isn’t as pronounced as you might think.  Sometimes the key moment in a game is in the 6th or 7th innings.

In those high leverage situations, Janssen was outstanding: 8.00 K/BB ratio, .123 Batting Average Against, and a .412 OPS against.  Nails.

But at the end of the day, the main reason I’m so excited to have Janssen on board for two + years is his consistency.  In 2011, he made 55 appearances.  He allowed an earned run in only nine of those appearances, and he allowed more than one earned run in only three of them.  That means that 84% of the time, Janssen made a scoreless appearance.  For a guy responsible for bridging the gap between starter and closer, that’s all you can ask for.

Welcome back Casey.

It’s a script that is often written in Hollywood.  A man falls in love but continually gets his heart broken.  After several repeated attempts, it comes down to one final push, one final shot at finding love.  I could be talking about a romantic comedy, about a chick flick, or about everybody’s least favourite show the Bachelor.

But I’m not.

Change a few things around in that synopsis, and you’ll see that I’m talking about myself.

Not about my relationship failures or shortcomings with women, but about my continued frustrations with one man.  I have had a love/hate relationship with this guy for several years now.  He is constantly letting me down, yet I am constantly coming back, ready to give him one more shot.

Well 2012, my friends, is my last time coming back.

2012 is this guy’s last chance to come through for me.

The man I’m talking about is none other than Edwin Encarnacion.

I have loved and hated EE for a long time now, but it never started out that way.  In the beginning everything was positive.  I have been a fantasy baseball fanatic for over a decade now, and back in 2006 I picked up Edwin – then a second year player on the Reds – as a 3B in August as I dealt with injury problems.  All that he did that month was destroy NL pitching: 27 games, 7 HR, 24 RBI, .317 AVG, .992 OPS.  That was all I needed – I was hooked.

Sure there were warning signs, but I chose to ignore them.  In September of that very same year, EE was awful.  He hit only 1 HR, drove in only 5 runs, and hit a paltry .205 in 26 games.  Had I chosen to pay more attention to those stats, perhaps this entire on-again/off-again path would never have happened.

But I didn’t, and it did.  Two years later I drafted him for my team, and he responded with 26 HR.  Though the average dropped into the .250′s, his OPS was still above .800.

When he was acquired by the Blue Jays in’09 as part of the Scott Rolen trade, I was pretty excited.  I thought we were penciling in 30 HR power at third for many years to come.  But when he started playing, one thing became evident, one thing that I had never considered.  You see, fantasy baseball only cares about offensive numbers.  Champions are determined by average, home runs, runs scored, RBI’s, and stolen bases.

Defense doesn’t play a part in fantasy.  And Edwin Encarnacion doesn’t play any defense.

A quick look at his dWAR numbers tell you all you need to know.  While offensively in his career Edwin has been very good (a 10.6 oWAR), defensively he has been atrocious.  His career dWAR is -6.3.  That’s right: negative 6.3.

For those who might not be too familiar with what that means, I’ll tell you:  it’s bad.  It’s really, really bad.

But still, I gave him a chance in 2010.  I had high hopes that his offense would at least make up for his glove.  But it was an awful season for EE, as he battled injury, wound up in the minor leagues for a bit, and then limped his way into September.  Fans were booing him.  I had given up on him – the love was gone.

Except….

He took off again.  Yes the average was low (.231), but in 16 September games he slugged 8 HR, had 15 RBI, and had an OPS of .939, all with an insanely low BAbip of .128.  That last stat suggested that Encarnacion was extremely unlucky and should have likely had a much higher batting average.

Suddenly I was once again intrigued.

Then, without warning, the Oakland A’s claimed EE off waivers in November of ’10.  For about a month I felt free.  No longer would I be jerked around by Edwin.  He was gone.  Of course, just as the script would have it, Encarnacion was granted free agency, and re-signed by Alex Anthopoulos.  Are you kidding me?

So began the most tumultuous year yet.  April and May of 2012 were horrible months.  His defensive play was awful, and he could no longer hit.  But something funny happened around the end of May.  EE finally lost his job at 3B, moving instead to a 1B/DH combo role.  Maybe it was the stress of playing third, of having to field ground balls and make accurate throws to first that was throwing him off, because his offensive stats took off.  As a 3B his OPS was .672 last season, compared to .800 at 1B, and .855 at DH.

For reference purposes, of all players with over 200 AB as a DH in 2011, only David Ortiz and Victor Martinez had a higher OPS than Edwin’s .855.

Which brings us back to this year.  An argument can be made about several different Blue Jays being the team’s most important player in 2012 in order for Toronto to take the next step.  Brandon Morrow must develop consistency, Colby Rasmus must finally break out, Travis Snider must stick with the team and prove he belongs, Sergio Santos must provide stability out of the bullpen, Brett Lawrie must continue his progression, etc.  You’d be right about any of those guys.

But allow me to present an argument on behalf of Edwin Encarnacion.  Toronto’s most glaring weakness last season was protection for Jose Bautista.  Adam Lind struggled. Aaron Hill struggled when he was here.  J.P. Arencibia was inconsistent.  Brett Lawrie was good, but a rookie and still raw.  With AA not bringing in a big, middle of the order bat, that same glaring weakness still exists.  With all of the nonsense about Edwin playing third finally put to rest, he can finally focus on being the slugger that he has the potential to be.  That will be like adding a middle of the order bat in its own right.  A 30-plus HR season might not be out of the question.

So I’m back on board Edwin, back on the bandwagon.  I’m giving you one final chance to come through.

Prove me right.

It has been well publicized this offseason that the Toronto Blue Jays avoided high-priced free agents, deciding instead to stick with their youth movement and philosophy of stockpiling talent.  If there ever was an offseason to throw that philosophy away it was this one, with huge, game changing names such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Jonathan Papelbon, Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson, and Carlos Beltran available.  But Alex Anthopoulos didn’t.  He stuck to his guns.

It has also been well publicized that the Blue Jays held their annual State of the Franchise event this past Monday, an event that I was lucky enough to attend.  During the Q&A portion of the event, Anthopoulos explained his philosophy to about 800 season ticket holders, media reps, and bloggers.  In his talk, he mentioned one specific phrase that stuck with me: “building a sustainable contender”.

To me, that sounds great.  Imagine a team that has the ability to contend not only for a Wild Card, but for the AL East title and a World Series crown year in and year out.  We had that here once, a wonderful 10-year stretch from 1984 to 1993.  In that decade the Jays averaged over 91 wins a season, finished 4th in the AL East (back when it had 7 teams) once, 3rd once, 2nd three times, won the division five times, and capped it off with two World Series.  Those were the golden days.  I liked those days.  You liked those days.  Everybody liked those days.

We all want those days back.

At least I thought we all wanted those days back.  A large amount of people, as I saw first hand on Monday night, do not seem to want those days back.  Yes they want to win the World Series, but from what the fans were saying, it seems like they would gladly trade away the future for instant success.

Seriously.  Fans were angry that Anthopolous didn’t break the bank to sign Fielder and Darvish for a combined $320-million.  They were upset that Antopoulos didn’t trade away most of our blue chip prospects for Gio Gonzalez and/or Mat Latos.  I know they were angry because I heard it first hand.

Which leads me to my poll.  What would you rather have? 

Option A – Sustainable Contender

This is a team who is always in the mix. You know going into each year that this team will have a chance to make the playoffs, and a chance to win the World Series.  It might continually fall short of the ultimate goal, but it always has a chance. 

Scenario – Next 12 Seasons: 1 Championship, 2 - 4 Championship appearances, 12 playoff appearances

Baseball Example – Atlanta Braves 

14 consecutive division titles.  Only one World Series win, but always in the playoffs.

Other Example – Philadelphia Flyers 

Made the playoffs 16 of the past 17 seasons.  Zero Stanley Cups, but lost in the Finals twice, and have won 17 postseason series in that time.

Option B – Instant Winner

This is the team that goes all out for a championship.  A team that signs the high-priced free agents to outrageous contracts and strips their farm system bare of prospects to trade for that last key piece.  They want to win now, and next year, and the year after, and are willing to sacrifice the next 4-7 years after that to do it.  This would be like Toronto signing Fielder, and Beltran, and Papelbon, then trading away guys like Drew Hutchinson, Deck McGuire, Travis d’Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, and others for Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza, and others.  Yes it might lead to a World Series in 2012, and maybe even a World Series in 2013, 2014, or 2015.  But it would also lead to a TERRIBLE team for five years after that, with no talent on the farm and no financial flexibility.

Scenario – Next 12 Seasons: 3 Championships, 9 seasons out of the playoffs, with most of them being last place or near last place finishes (i.e. hopeless, lost seasons)

Baseball Example – Florida Marlins 

Might not be the perfect example, but the Marlins were terrible from ’93 to ’96, then loaded up to win in 1997.  They dismantled, and went back to being terrible – dead last in ’98 and ’99, under .500 from ’00 to ’02, before loading up again to win in 2003.  Since then, they haven’t sniffed the playoffs, but are once again loading up this year.

Similar Baseball Example – New York Mets

They went to the NLCS in ’99 and the World Series in ’00, but handcuffed themselves with terrible contracts.  Since that time they have one playoff appearance, and are currently riding a stretch of 3 straight 2nd last, sub .500 finishes.  Starting this year they will be paying 49 year old Bobby Bonilla $1.2-million a year until he is 72.  Yikes. 

Other Example – Carolina Hurricanes

Won the Stanley Cup the first year after the lockout.  Gave huge contracts to Eric Staal and Cam Ward, that are now handcuffing the team.  Missed the playoffs four of the past five years, and are near last place again this season.

My Verdict

If Moneyball has taught us anything, it’s that playoffs are a crapshoot.  To quote a very important man: “All you gotta do is get there.”  Getting there gives you a chance.  Not getting there doesn’t.

For that reason, I’ll take Option A, all day long.

What’s your choice?

Last night the Blue Jays held their annual State of the Franchise event for season ticket holders.  Despite not being a season ticket holder (alas, I am only a lowly Season Pass holder, banished to the 500 Level with my drunk brethren), I was generously given an invite and was lucky enough to attend.

Before I get into the meat of the event, let me say this: it was a great time.  I was able to meet several other Jays bloggers for the first time (the guys from Drunk Jays Fans, Getting Blanked, Mop Up Duty, and Jays Journal), re-meet some that I have met before (Blue Jay Hunter and 1 Blue Jays Way), and also meet several Jays tweeters for the first time.  (As an aside, there is nothing more awkward and weird than meeting somebody for the first time and introducing myself as 500 Level Fan, instead of my real name.  Odd.)  The atmosphere was pretty cool, the set up was intimate, and amazingly the beer was free.  All in all, a good event.

Here are some more detailed thoughts on what was State of the Franchise 2012:

- First off, the results of my “Early Betting Lines” post from yesterday.  I posted eight potential questions / actions that I thought might happen.  Here’s the rundown:

1 and 2. Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder were both discussed.  More on that later.

3. Payroll Parameters – not really.  Yes there was talk about payroll, but the specific $120-million figure never came up.

4. Catcher of the Future – D’Arnaud’s name was mentioned, but not in the context of supplanting Arencibia.

5. The LF Question – Farrell directly addressed this, a few times.

6 and 7. Tony Fernandez and EE – not at all.

8. AA getting away with a “non-answer” – yes.  More on that to come.

- I want to talk specifically about the Fielder and Darvish situation because unlike many in attendance, I thought the Jays handled it perfectly.  For those who couldn’t watch the panel last night, before Buck Martinez opened up the Q&A session to the fans in attendance, he personally asked two questions.  The first went to Paul Beeston about why Prince Fielder wasn’t brought in, and the second went to AA about what happened with Darvish. 

To many, this was a slap in the face to fans, a cop-out, a slimy way to get out the back door.  By having Buck ask the questions in a free and easy, “we’re all friends here” manner, it basically takes the Prince and Yu issue off the table for the rest of the fans, some who may be legitimately angry.  But to me, that was a HUGE win.  I didn’t want to hear Jimmy from Oakville, or Peter from Ajax rip into the front office and call them cheap, or cowardly, or stupid because we didn’t get Prince Fielder.  I dont’ think we would have heard as honest or as direct of an explanation in that case.  It would have painted Beeston and AA into more of a defensive posture, like it or not.

Instead we heard a very honest answer by Beeston re: Fielder: “we don’t do any contract greater than 5-years in length.  If it was a 1, 3, or 5 year deal, we would have been right there.  Anything longer than that goes against our philosophy.”

We didn’t get quite the sane answer from Anthopoulos re: Darvish, which scores a point for item 8 in my betting lines piece (how many times will AA get away with a non-answer).  He basically gave no information about whether or not a bid was placed for Darvish, refusing to buckle and say that they were players in the sweepstakes for the Japanese pitcher.  Instead he mentioned that “each potential addition has a price or a value that we place on them.  If they ask for more than what we feel they are worth, we won’t sign them.”

- I thought that all three members of the panel – Farrell, Anthopoulos, and Beeston – were very well spoken and handled the questions with grace.  There were many, many, many stupid questions (trust me – more about that later), but each man on the panel thanked the person that asked the question, and then gave as detailed and honest an answer as they possibly could.  They were never defensive and always friendly.

Some of that honesty came out with Anthopoulos (and Beeston for that matter), boldly stating that there were two cases in which Toronto offered a free agent more money and/or more years than what he ultimately signed for.  This was in response to a question from a man who demanded to know why the Jays didn’t sign Carlos Beltran to a free-agent contract, flatly stating that since Beltran only signed for 2-years and $12-million per, that he should have fit Toronto’s contract philsophy.  One can insinuate that Beltran might have been one of those two players.  Anthopoulos, in his gentlemanly way, calmly answered to the irate fan that “some players don’t want to play on turf, some don’t want to DH, and some don’t want to switch leagues from the NL to the AL,” meaning, obviously, that Beltran didn’t want to come here.  Many fans often forget that a player also has to want to come to and play in a certain city and join a certain team.  I’m sure the fact that Toronto hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in almost 20 years and St. Louis is the defending World Series champion might have also played a part in that.

Never mind the fact that Beltran will be 35 in April, his best days are behind him, and his health is declining rapidly.  AA chose to take the high road and not quote that, as I likely would have…

- The questions.  Oh, the questions.  What can I say about the questions?

I thought some were good (such as “what are your thoughts on interleague play?”), but most weren’t.

But here’s the thing – it’s not that questions themselves weren’t any good, it was the people who asked them.  Aside from one woman who simply asked John Farrell who he envisioned as his starting outfield in 2012, each and every question was fronted by a 250 word preamble.  The format was basically the same.

From a happy fan:

“Hi, my name is [insert name here], and I have been a season ticket for [x number] of years.  [Insert story about how much fan likes the Jays here]. [Insert comment on how glad they are to be here tonight.] [Insert comment on how they liked the glory years and feel we are on the right track here.] Now, here’s my question.”

From a disgruntled fan:

“Hi, my name is [insert name here], and I have been a season ticket for [x number] of years.  [Insert story about how disappointed fan was with the offseason]. [Insert comment on how upset they are with the failure to make playoffs / sign free agents / make trades / play on grass / contend on an annual basis.] Now, here’s my question.”

Honestly, a simple 20-second question at times took 3-4 minutes to ask.  I can’t say that I’m surprised and didn’t expect it.  I have been to an Annual General Meeting for a major corporation before, and the same thing happened.  Seriously people – the CEO / President / GM of a company is happy that you came, but unless you hold the majority of shares or have a direct influence on the company, they don’t care about your opinion.  Alex Anthopoulos doesn’t care that some guy from Cambridge thinks he gave up too much for Colby Rasmus (an honest to God comment from last night).  The trade is done.  It happened.  He also doesn’t likely care that some other guy renounced his fanship last night because Toronto didn’t sign Fielder.  I’m sure Beeston and Anthopoulos would much rather forfeit one fan’s $1,200 contribution to team revenue from his season tickets than be forced to pay a 36-year old 450 pound, immobile, and decrepit Prince Fielder $24-million.

Anyways, I digress…

Here are my winners in these five categories:

Funniest Question/Comment: A man named Ronny said that even if results aren’t there, he wants to see great effort, and “players that look and act like winners to me (but not the Charlie Sheen kind).  I look at Brett Lawrie and I see a winner.  I look at Alex and I see a winner.  I look at John Farrell and I don’t see a winner cause it’s too soon.”  Classic.

Stupidest Comment: “First off I want to say that I think we gave up way too much in the Colby Rasmus trade.  Both pitchers that went to St. Louis won the World Series.”  Amazing.  Never mind that we traded a 37-year old reliever on a one-year deal and a left-handed reliever for a 25-year old potential All Star, Dotel won the WORLD SERIES!  Terrible trade.

Stupidest Question:  I can’t remember the full question, but it ended something like this: “when will Toronto have a Canadian on the major league roster?“  Apparently calling Brett Lawrie “our Canadian superstar” wasn’t obvious enough.

Most Bizarre Moment: When a Venezuelan stood up and said that he brought a team of 35-year old Venezuelan players to Niagara Falls and wanted Toronto to sign them, only the representative from the Blue Jays said the team was too busy.  Instead, the Texas Rangers came up to Niagara Falls during the World Series and signed five of the players.  Very, very strange.  Even AA didn’t know what to think.

Biggest Bonehead: “I’m a Jays fan through and through,” said by a man wearing a Detroit Tigers shirt.  Seriously.  The best part was seeing AA call him out on it.  Classic.

Tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays State of the Franchise event at the Rogers Centre.  For the first time ever, thanks to some generosity, I will be in attendance.  Judging by the current case of the shakes that I have contracted, I am pretty excited.

Part of the gala is a Q&A with Alex Anthopoulos, John Farrell, and Paul Beeston.  Below are some early betting lines for what types of questions will be asked by season ticket holders. 

If only you could actually bet on these things….

Subject: Yu Darvish, and the failure to sign him

Will it be Asked:Yes, a 500 Level Fan guarantee

Why: Most fans were pretty upset the night that Texas won the posting process, and most remain upset, especially with AA’s refusal to confirm if the Jays were actually even in the running.

Subject: Prince Fielder, and the failure to sign him

Will it be Asked: Absolutely

Why: Similar to Darvish, fans wanted Prince.  They wanted him batting behind Bautista.  They wanted him at first instead of Lind.   They wanted him in a Blue Jay uniform for many, many years.  They didn’t get him.

Subject:  “Payroll Parameters”

Will it be Asked: 100% yes

Why: Some believe the Jays should have a $120-million or higher.  I think at least 80 of them will want to ask about it.

Subject: Future at the Catcher Position – Travis D’Arnaud or J.P. Arencibia

Will it be Asked: Likely not

Why: Not to say that that isn’t an important subject – just not tonight.

Subject: LF – Thames or Snider?

Will it be Asked: 60% sure

Why: Snider continues to be a hot topic amongst Jays fans, and Eric Thames suddenly grew 38-inch Hulk Hogan-esque biceps this offseason….

Subject: Tony Fernandez and his future with the Jays front office

Will it be Asked: Only would be asked by me…

Why: Nobody cares about Tony, my hero, and nothing has ever been said about him joining the front office.  Still, if I have just the right amount of beers…

Subject: Edwin Encarnacion

Will it be Asked: No, not at all.

Why:  Similar to the Tony question, I’m not sure that anybody really cares that much about Edwin.  But for some strange reason I continue to have an odd fascination with the man.  I want to know if AA envisions Edwin as a front-of-the-order hitter and a 30 HR threat like I do…

Number of times AA gets away with a coy “non-answer” to a challenging question with a sly smile and a laugh.

Over/Under: 38.5

Bet: Over

I think Anthopoulos could actually get out of any situation he wanted to, all while making whoever he was arguing or speaking or debating with think that they won. 

I’ll have the results to the betting above, as well as a full recap of the State of the Franchise, tomorrow on 500 Level Fan.

As we enter the final week of January, Canadian baseball fans can take solace in knowing that we only have one more truly brutal month ahead of us (ghastly, godawful February), before the excitement of baseball and all that it brings with it (warm weather, beer, the sun, and more beer) returns.

What this also means is that Major League Baseball’s offseason is winding down.  Sure there are a few intriguing names still available, but with most of the big fish out of the free agent pond, I think we can take an opportunity to look at how successful (or unsuccessful) Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has fared to this point.

Below are eight wishes, or in some cases demands (as in angry, fist-shaking demands) that Jays fans had at the conclusion of the 2011 season.  Did AA do an adequate job in fulfilling these wishes?  Let’s find out.

1. Bring Back Johnny Mac

The Ask: Re-sign fan favourite John McDonald, who was traded away to Arizona in August, so he can finish his career in Toronto.

What AA Did: Well, he didn’t bring back Johnny, who re-signed with the Diamondbacks for two years at $3-million.  But, at least in my opinion, he did one better in bringing in 44-year old defensive wonder Omar Vizquel.  Despite being seven years older than Johnny, Vizquel continues to play excellent defense, and actually has outproduced McDonald on the offensive side of the ball.  In 2011 he put up a .592 OPS to Johnny’s .577, and has posted a .650 OPS from ’09-’11, compared to Johnny’s .642.  Plus the dollar value and contract length are more team friendly.

Verdict: Though he’ll never replace Johnny Mac in our hearts, Vizquel is an adequate replacement.  AA wins the point.

2. Bring In A Bona Fide Closer

The Ask: Simple – give us a closer.  One who can get hitters out on a fairly routine basis without giving fans heart attacks on a regular basis.

What AA Did: Dealt pitching prospect Nestor Molina to Chicago for closer Sergio Santos.  In pure baseball terms this was a solid move.  Molina had never thrown a pitch in the majors, and Santos had 30 saves and a ridiculous 13.07 K/9 ratio in 2011.  In monetary terms it was an amazing deal, with Santos signed for three years (plus three option years) and owed $8.25-million total for those years.  

Verdict: It wasn’t a big name like Papelbon, but it’s even better that it wasn’t a big name.  Chalk up another point for the GM.

3. Revamp the Entire Bullpen

The Ask: It wasn’t rocket science to figure out what Toronto’s Achilles heel was last season.  The bullpen underperformed all year long, plunging fans into months of mediocrity.  Fans wanted a new bullpen.

What AA Did: As described above, he brought in Santos to close.  He signed veteran lefty Darren Oliver to give the Jays a serious strength against left-handed hitters.  He let the wildly inconsistent and disappointing Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and Shawn Camp walk.  He re-acquired old set-up man Jason Frasor from the White Sox.  And yesterday, Anthopoulos signed former Cincinnati Reds closer Franciso Cordero to pitch the 8th inning.  Yes Cordero’s numbers may be declining, but I think he’ll be a good insurance policy for Santos, and can team with Frasor and Oliver to bridge the gap to the ninth.  Plus AA kept the only two decent relievers from 2011 – Villanueva and Janssen.

Verdict: Fans can whine all they want about Oliver and Cordero being old – the bullpen is vastly improved.  AA delivers. 

4. Add A Big Bat

The Ask: Add a power hitter to slot behind (or in front of) home run king Jose Bautista.

What AA Did: To this point, nothing – to the derision of many fans.  With Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran all on the move, Anthopoulos sat and watched other teams snap those guys up, preferring to hope for rebound years by Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind. 

Verdict: There was a high probability that Adam Lind played last season with a busted back, meaning he is a good candidate to bounce back, and seeing the absolutely ridiculous contracts given to both Fielder and Pujols, I’m not as disappointed that a bat wasn’t added.  Is a shot at a World Series in the next two or three years really worth paying Pujols $25-million when he is 42, or paying Fielder $23-million when he is 35 and potentially 350 lbs and immobile?  I’ll give AA a push on this one.

5. Settle the LF Question

The Ask: Pick one – Travis Snider or Eric Thames – and go with him for the entire season.

What AA Did: So far nothing at all.  Both Thames and Snider are still Blue Jays, and both are still slated to make the big league team.  Will they platoon?  Will one start and one sit?  Will one be sent down?  Will one be traded?  Questions still abound.

Verdict: Tough to say.  Most still believe that Snider has more upside, and he is still only 23 years old (24 next week).  It was always going to be a tough situation for AA to be in, and I (along with many) would probably feel more comfortable with a decision and/or trade coming sometime during the season after each has been given an opportunity.  A push.

6. Settle the 2B Question

The Ask: Bring in a quality second baseman, something that’s been missing since Aaron Hill went AWOL.

What AA Did: Re-signed Kelly Johnson to a one year $6.375-million contract.  In a limited audition with the Jays after being acquired from Arizona, Johnson hit .270 with a .781 OPS and 3 HR, and according to rumour, has long been an Anthopoulos favourite.

Verdict: In truth, the 2B options in free agency were limited, and it was somewhat shocking that Johnson accepted arbitration back in December.  The question remains as to whether KJ is a good enough long term option, but at $6-million and one year there is little risk.  The only problem is that the Jays are likely right back in the same position next year.  Still – a mild win for AA.

7. Improve the Rotation

The Ask: In a nutshell – sign Yu Darvish.  Most fans were clamouring for Yu, with the noise hitting a fever pitch in the week before the posting decision was announced.  To a lesser extent, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Hiroki Kuroda, and Edwin Jackson were thrown out there.

What AA Did: Nobody actually knows if a bid was placed for Yu Darvish, with some reports saying no and others saying approximately $50-million.  Either way, it wasn’t enough and Darvish went to Texas.  Nor did AA sign any other starting pitcher.  He did, however, extend Brandon Morrow for three years, which, for those who read this site often, is a gold-star type move in my opinion. 

Verdict: While Darvish would have been nice, it can’t be stressed enough that he has never faced major league hitting  before, and spending $111-million  (contract + posting fee) is a tad outrageous.  With a rotation fronted by Romero, Morrow, and promising rookie Henderson Alvarez, the top three look solid.  Last year Toronto finished 81-81 with a wildly inconsistent Morrow, and horrendous, bottom-of-the barrel type seasons from Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek (not to mention four months worth of Jo Jo Reyes).  Even a minor bounce back year from Cecil and/or Drabek, plus the addition of McGowan and maybe even one of the rich pitching prospects in the minors, and the rotation is already better than last year, without overpaying a crappy free agent.  Win.

8. Improve But Don’t Cripple Us

The Ask: Basically this: get better in all areas of the game, but don’t ruin our future by a) trading away prospects and/or b) signing players to terrible contracts.  Awful deals to Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, and A.J. Burnett are still fresh in people’s minds, and nobody wants to see an Anthony Gose or a Jake Marisnick starring for another team in a few years.

What AA Did: Nothing over the top, which is a good thing.  Yes he dealt Molina to Chi-town, but the jury is still out on what kind of impact he’ll make.  AA avoided overpaying for Wilson, Fielder, Pujols, Beltran, Papelbon, etc., and he hung on to the jewels of  his farm system instead of pooling them together for a Matt Garza, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, or Carlos Quentin. 

Verdict: Huge win.  If the price to be in contention for a World Series in 2012 was to have no chance at winning from 2014 – 2018, then I’d rather not.  Raiding the minors and overcommitting financial resources to top free agents is an untenable strategy – just ask the New York Mets. 

By my count, that is one hell of an offseason for our GM.

Hats off to Mr. Anthopoulos.

A big night last night for fans of the Toronto Blue Jays; something to get us excited on a dark, dreary, cold, windy, and rainy January night.

First the bigger news – the Blue Jays sign Brandon Morrow to a 3-year / $20-million contract extension.  At first glance, this looks like a great deal for the Jays.  Morrow is 27-years old (he’ll be 28 in July), meaning he is just entering his prime years, and neither the term nor the dollar value are outrageous.

Then I took a second glance at the signing, and it looks like an even better deal.

Look at Morrow’s numbers over the past three seasons (2009 with Seattle).  He has gone from 10 starts, to 26 starts, to 30 starts.  His innings pitched have also steadily increased, from 69.2 to 146.1, to 179.1 last season.  Yes his ERA has also steadily risen, up to an unsightly 4.72 in 2011, but most importantly, his WHIP and his walk rate (measured as BB/9) have steadily decreased over the past three years.  All that while maintaining a K/9 rate of greater than 10 in each of the last two years, including a league leading 10.19 in 2011.

Yes Morrow is inconsistent, sometimes frustratingly so.  But don’t forget – he didn’t really become a full-time starter until 2010 when arriving with the Blue Jays.  Most young starting pitchers take time to settle, and Morrow was jerked around by Seattle, which likely delayed his growth as a pitcher.  It’s hard enough to transition from a closer to a starter.  Imagine being forced to go back and forth multiple times?  Now that his arm strength has built and his starting technique has developed, his elite potential is on the verge of exploding.

I read a tweet from ESPN analyst Jim Bowden who labelled the signing “high risk” due to Morrow’s “increasing ERA’s and injury history”.  But is a three year deal at < $7-million a season really so dangerous, for a potentially elite starting pitcher who has electric stuff and the ability to lead the league in strikeouts year after year?  Especially when the Phillies will be paying Jonathan Papelbon $12.5-million to pitch 125-150 fewer innings, and Arizona will be paying Joe Saunders (a 30-year old with a 4.6 K/9 ratio and a 1.31 WHIP (worse than Morrow’s)) $6-million for 2012?  I don’t think so.

In the second move of the night, Toronto signed 44-year old (45 in April) Omar Vizquel to a one-year deal.  Many people wondered why, especially considering his advanced age and declining skill set.  But I love it.

Some people point to the fact that he is a Latin player who speaks Spanish, and thus will help Yunel Escobar.  Others point to the fact he could be a mentor to the young Cuban, and potential future Toronto SS Adeiny Hechavarria.  Both are solid points.

One could argue that Vizquel will fill the same role as Johnny Mac did for many years – a late inning defensive replacement.  You could also point out that despite being much older, Vizquel actually put up better offensive stats than Johnny last year: .251 average and .592 OPS, compared to a .229 average and .577 OPS (in both Toronto and Arizona).  If you want to nitpick further, Vizquel’s offensive numbers destroyed those of Mike McCoy, the incumbent “light-hitting sub”.

All good points.

But the real reason why I love the signing has nothing to do with that stuff. 

You see, as a kid growing up I played baseball, grinding it out summer after summer in the WMBA (Whitby Minor Baseball Association) for such powerhouse teams as The Legal Beagles, and Whitby Toyota.  I played a pretty good shortstop, showing good range, with a decent arm.  Unfortunately, I couldn’t hit, finishing my career with 0 home runs and one triple.  But I developed a pretty good slap hitting style, getting on base a lot.  So naturally, who became my favourite player of all time?  Tony Fernandez.  What other players captivated me on a daily basis whenever I watched baseball highlights?  Ozzie Smith, Alfredo Griffin, and you guessed it.

Omar Vizquel.

Welcome to Toronto buddy.

Before I start let me make a few things clear:

1. I am in no way against the contract that Yu Darvish signed with Texas.

2. I am not anti-Yu.

3. I still wish that the Blue Jays had signed Darvish.

4. I am not writing this because I’m angry with Toronto, or Texas, or Yu for what happened.

Now that that’s said….

I sent out a simple tweet yesterday that generated some responses, and those responses have in turn lead me to write this post.

I tweeted this:

Again – I’m not saying that $60-million is the wrong number for Darvish.  It might be too high, it might even be too low – a steal for Texas.  Who knows?  All I’m saying is that this $60-million contract (plus a $51-million posting fee, bringing the total to $111 million) is essentially going to a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues.

Very few pitchers have ever eclipsed the $100-million mark, and those that have have brought with them a nice track record of Cy Young awards and/or playoff/regular season success.  Some of those contracts turned out bad (hello Mike Hampton and Barry Zito), but at least they were based on previous success.

Let me reiterate that Yu Darvish has never thrown a pitch in a major league game.

What really struck me when the deal was announced, and what was the main driving force behind my tweet, was that nobody seemed to care about that fact.  There was no outrage.  Let me bring up something from a few years ago.  Remember back in the summer of 2009 when a highly touted pitcher was taken first overall in the MLB draft?  In August, that pitcher was signed to a four year $15.1-million contract.  I remember baseball pundits and fans being mind-boggled that any team would give a player who had never played in the big leagues that much money. 

That player was obviously Stephen Strasburg, and that contract is obviously much, much less than what Darvish received.

As I said in the tweet, besides a few more years pitched and a stronger arm, what is the difference between those two?  Why was nobody shocked/angered/bewildered by the Darvish money?

Is it because he’s older?  Is it because the signing of a Japanese pitcher to crazy money has been done before?  One responder said that he thought it was a good deal because Darvish had faced MLB talent before.  But has he?  In the 2009 World Baseball Classic, Darvish came into pitch the 9th inning against the USA in the semi-final game with a 5-run lead.  Here is how he fared:

- Derek Jeter grounded out

- Jimmy Rollins singled

- David Wright struck out

- Adam Dunn struck out

To me it looks like Darvish has indeed faced MLB talent – four players in a pre-season exhibition tournament, none of who were in anything near peak game shape (plus anybody can strike out Adam Dunn.  It’s been proven.)  That’s it.  And he gave up a hit.

Yes I know that is a small sample size, and maybe he would have dominated the USA in a full game with players in mid-season form.  But…maybe he wouldn’t have.

Look – Darvish’s numbers speak for themselves.  He went 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 13 innings in the WBC.  He has posted a sub 1.90 ERA and sub 1.05 WHIP in five straight seaons in Japan, eclipsing 200 K in four of those.  But just as people were wondering if Strasburg’s dominance against college hitters would translate to the majors, it also must be asked if Darvish’s dominance of Japanese hitters will translate.

The Rangers are betting $111-million that it will. 

And nobody seems to care.