The following is an excerpt of an audio recording received exclusively by 500 Level Fan.  Its contents are shocking:

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Date: April 26, 2012

Time: 9:58 PM, minutes after the Blue Jays were swept by the Orioles

Scene: Inside the visitors clubhouse at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

[a CRASH resonates across the locker room as Brett Lawrie throws his glove against the wall]

[a SMASH echoes across the room as Casey Janssen kicks a chair in disgust]

Brandon Morrow: Hey Case, settle down buddy.  It’s alright, it’s just one game.

Casey Janssen: I know man, but damn it!  Right down the f*#$kin’ middle!  Who throws a ball down the middle to the only guy on Baltimore that can hit?

[SMASH as another chair goes flying]

Brett Lawrie: DAMMIT!!!! HOW DO WE GET SWEPT BY BALTIMORE!!!! AHHHHH!!!!

J.P. Arencibia [walking in behind the rest of the team]: Relax bro! Long way to go in the season.  We’ll get ‘em next time.

Lawrie [stomping his feet]: GRRRRRRR

JPA: Is that a growl?  Ha, ha, ha!!!

[At this point manager John Farrell walks in to address the team]

Farrell: Tough night out there boys.  I thought we -

[Suddenly team leader Jose Bautista stands up and gets Farrell's attention.  Farrell stops talking and cedes the floor to Jose]

Bautista: I don’t like to lose.  In fact, I HATE to lose.  Losing makes me very, very angry.  But do you know what makes me angrier?

[silence falls across the room as the team looks at their leader]

Bautista: Doubt.  People say that I’ve lost the ability to hit.  They say the league has caught up to me.  They’re doubting me and they’re doubting us.  I don’t like that.  But guess what?  They’re wrong.  ET – how many home runs did I hit last year?

Eric Thames: Uh, 40 something.

Bautista: 43 – close enough.  Double R – what about the year before?

Ricky Romero: 54 boss.

Bautista: There’s a man who knows his baseball.  Correct.  Brett, what does that add up to?  Nevermind…it’s under 100. 

[some laughs trickle out of some players]

Bautista: And do you know how many extra base hits I had the past two seasons? 

[some head shaking]

Thames: Probably a hell of a lot more than I did!

Bautista: Ha!  Right on.  161 of them.  But now they’re saying I can’t hit.  Do you really believe that after those two years I have suddenly lost the ability to hit big league pitching?

JPA: Maybe it’s all the Booster Juice you drank in the offseason!

[laughter.  somebody throws a towel at Arencibia]

Bautista: J.P. – do you know what playing possum means?

JPA:  Of course….no….you can’t….really?

[Bautista smiles and nods]

Bautista: Do you really think I can’t hit a curveball or a slider?  Do you really think I don’t see the infield shifts and have the ability to poke a few oppo-field doubles?  I can hit a f*$#kin’ curveball 600 damn feet!  I can crush a slider and have it land in Texas if I wanted to.

Lawrie: So why not do it now?  Why wait?

Bautista: Because they think they have me now.  The rest of the league thinks they have me exactly where they want me.  They’ve figured me out.  Ain’t that right Murph?

[hitting coach Dwayne Murphy can only chuckle and shake his head]

Bautista: They keep tossing in the off-speed s*#t, they keep lolly gagging this trash to the plate thinkin’ they got me all figured out.  They keep moving the second baseman to the left side of the field thinkin’ I’ll wilt under the shift. I could have started hitting it right now, but why give it away already?  Everybody says that a win in April is just as important, and that’s true.  But come on dammit.  We’ve played the Orioles, Royals, and Indians 13 times!!  I’d rather beat the Yankees, Sox, and Rays.  I know we played them already, but it was too early.

Janssen: So what are you sayin?

Bautista: I’m saying that now I’ve got them all fooled.  Now that the league knows how to pitch to me, they’ll commit to it.  Now that they see I’m hitting under .200, they’ll pull this s*#t day in and day out.  And now that that’s locked in?  BOOM!

[Bautista swings his arms and starts a miniature home trut around the locker room to the cheers of his teammates]

Bautista: It all starts tomorrow when we kick the s*#t out of the Mariners!  Let’s teach this league who’s boss.  Who’s with me?  Huh?  WHO’S WITH ME!!??!!??

[cheers erupt from the group, including from manager Farrell.  Even Colby Rasmus gives a fist pump]

Lawrie: I’M FIRED UP! IIII’MMMM FFFFFIIIIIRRRREEEEDDDD UUUUPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[end]

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So there you go. 

Bautista has spoken.

We’ll be fine.

Wow.  That didn’t take long did it?

A sub-par first few weeks and a couple of really bad games is all it took for people to go overboard.  Panic mode has officially set in amongst the Blue Jay fanbase – only 18 games in!

“Fire Dwayne Murphy!” the fans are saying. “He’s the hitting coach and we can’t hit!”

“Send down Thames!  Call up Snider!  Trade Arencibia!  Bring up d’Arnaud!” they say.

“Bautista is washed up!  Two fluke years in a row sold us.  This is how he really is!” they say.

I’ve written several columns already preaching patience.  It’s early, I keep saying.  But it doesn’t seem to matter.

So instead of preaching to the choir again, I’ll try something different.  I wrote a column like this last year to try and distract fans from Toronto’s early struggles, so I thought I’d do it again.  Hopefully this really brings home just how early the season actually is. 

Calm down – here are 10 shocking statistics from early in 2012:

8.5 - Number of games back the LA Angels are of Texas right now – biggest deficit in the majors.  For a team that added C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols and was the pick of many to be the best team in the AL, they certainly look awful.  A 6-12 record has them dead last in the AL West.  The fact that they’re under .500 can be rectified in time, but an 8.5 game deficit?  That is a subsantial hill to climb.  One of the biggest reasons for the start is….

0 – Home runs by Albert Pujols.  The biggest signing of the offseason, and one of the greatest players in the history of the game is off to a dreadful start.  113 American League players have hit at least one HR, but not Albert.  And it’s not as if he’s hitting well in other categories to make up for it.  His .222 batting average is T-71st, his .601 OPS is 75th (behind Adam Lind!!!), and his 71 OPS+ is T-73rd…with Chone Figgins.  Albert will come around, but this is not the start the Angels were envisioning.

14 – Wins by the Washington Nationals.  We all knew the Nats were much improved this year, but not this much.  Their .778 winning percentage only trails Texas, and they have already opened up a 2.5 game lead on Atlanta in the NL East, and lead the Phillies by 5.5 already.  Why are they so good?  Well…..

1.71 – ERA of Washington’s starting rotation.  That number is crazy, and is 0.77 lower than the second place Cardinals.  Washington’s starters also lead baseball in hits allowed (71), HR allowed (3), walks (22), WHIP (0.84 (!)), and K/BB (4.68).  Crazy, crazy good numbers.

.420 – Batting average of Derek Jeter.  The 75-year old Yankee is off to one of the best starts of his career.  He leads the league in hits with 34, has recorded a base hit in 17 of 18 games this season (including 15 in a row), and has recorded 11 multi-hit games thus far.  There’s no way that can last, is there?

Speaking of no way that can last…

24.00 – K/BB ratio of Texas Rangers starter Colby Lewis.  That’s right: 24 strikeouts and only 1 walk.  Lewis pitched 26.2 IP over 4 starts, so it’s not like the sample size is tiny.  For a guy with a career K/BB rate of 2.21, including a 3.02 mark last year, it’s a number that is bound to fall substantially.  But still, pretty impressive.

29 – Strikeouts by Adam Dunn.  That Dunn leads baseball in strikeouts is not surprising.  He is a classic strikeout player who has lead the league in K’s three times before . What’s shocking is the sheer number of strikeouts he is racking up this year.  29 K’s in only 18 games has him on pace for 261 for the season, which wouldn’t only shatter the previous record – it would absolutely pulverize it.

Staying with the White Sox…

.952 – OPS for Alex “Who Gives a F*#k” Rios.  The former Jay is off to a terrific start, with a .362 average and 7 extra base hits.  No word yet on how many times he’s refused to give an autograph to a young kid…

7 - OPS+ of Miguel Olivo.  For those unfamiliar with the stat, OPS+ adjusts a player’s OPS to the park and the league in which he plays.  100 is the league average.  Anything over 150 is excellent, and anything less than 75 is poor.  Miguel Olivo’s OPS+ thus far in 2012 is 7.  SEVEN.  Olivo has been a decent hitter in his career so one would expect his .164 / .177 / .197 / .374 slash line to improve.  But for now, he is sitting on 7.  For reference purposes, if he somehow manages to keep that for the entire year, it woud be the second worst OPS+ ever, behind Bill Bergen’s 1909 mark of 1.  Horrendous!

3 – Number of Blue Jays who lead their position in fielding.  Using the Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average stat, Yunel Escobar leads all AL shortstops (and all players) at +8, Kelly Johnson leads all second basemen at +6, and Brett Lawrie leads all AL 3B at +5.  Throw in 31 double plays turned (which leads the league by a mile), and that shows just how good Toronto’s D has been.  Now if only the O could catch up…

Really Sports Illustrated? The old logo?

I’m used to the Blue Jays getting little to no respect from major American media outlets.  I get it – Toronto is a Canadian team that generates little buzz south of the border.  They are rarely on ESPN, rarely on the cover of video games or Sports Illustrated, and are rarely discussed on major US websites.

I’m used to it.  I think that all Jays fans are. 

But then I saw a post today at SI.com and I got a little bit offended.  The article in question is the weekly Power Rankings, and it was actually published yesterday afternoon, before the Jays won their fourth straight.  Normally a Power Rankings column is one person’s take on all 30 MLB teams, and has more to do with gut feel than with the standings.  These Power Rankings are based on the Fangraphs WAR statistic and are a bit different. 

You’ll notice from the photo above that they have the Jays ranked 20th.  If you click on the link to the article, you’ll notice that 20th puts Toronto behind power teams such as Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, the Mets, and Kansas City (KC, by the way, is ranked 7th despite having the worst record in the entire major leagues).

Since these rankings are driven by a formula instead of opinion, it’s hard to argue and get upset about where teams rank.  In fact, I’m fine with the Jays being so low.  They really haven’t played that well, the offense is struggling, starting pitchers not named Romero have been inconsistent, and the bullpen is up and down.  I feel extremely fortunate that the club is 10-6.

So, believe it or not, it’s not the 20th place ranking that gets to me.

What bothers me is this:

Sports Illustrated is a well-recognized, well-renowned, industry leader when it comes to sports media.  They are a hugely respected brand that are always on top of everything that happens in the sports world.

But SI – it is late April.  The season is almost a month old. 

You seriously can’t update the Blue Jays logo?

Talk about no damn respect.

Brutal.  Just….brutal.

The third week of the 2012 season was a week of firsts for the Jays.  There was the first meeting with the powerful Tampa Bay Rays.  The first game with the roof open (a crazy thought as it gets set to snow in Toronto today).  There was also the beginning of the first extended road trip, a 7-game journey to Kansas City and Baltimore.

And, sadly, there was also the first blowouts of the season, a 10-run loss to Tampa followed up by a 5-run loss the next day.

But the strength and make-up of a team is often determined by how they respond to adversity, how they bounce back from tough times.  Toronto looked pretty good in response to the Tampa losses by finishing the week with another first – their first three game winning streak.

Here are three things from week 3:

Week 3: April 16 – April 22

Record: 4 – 2

1. Here Comes Ricky

One bad inning.  That was what happened to Ricky Romero in the season opener in Cleveland, when he allowed four earned runs in the second inning against the Indians.  Other than that, he has been pretty much lights out pitching in the role of Toronto’s ace.

Over the past couple of seasons,  Romero has developed the one thing that is mandatory in a staff ace – consistency.  Brandon Morrow has better stuff, as demonstrated by his killer strikeout numbers, but it is Romero’s consistency that puts him over the top.  Consider his start to the 2012 season: 4 starts, 27.1 IP for an average of just under 7 IP/start.  He is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP (a career best).  He went 2-0 with 5 ER in 14 IP last week to pace the Jays.  Of course it’s early, and the numbers are bound to change, but to me this is Romero’s most impressive stat: In his 27.1 IP, he has allowed runs in only 5 innings, and only 3 of those innings have been multi-run innings.  His worst inning of the season was the afforementioned 2nd inning in Cleveland. 

He may not be as dominant as a Verlander, Kershaw, or Halladay, with no-hit type outings each and every time out, but if Romero can keep this consistency all year, he doesn’t have to be.

2. The New Big Two

Toronto has seemingly had two big bats in the lineup for several years.  There was Wells and Rios in ’08, Hill and Lind in ’09, Wells and Bautista in ’10, and Bautista and Lind/JPA in ’11.  This year many were expecting the Bautista / Lawrie combo to fill those shoes, and while Lawrie is doing just fine, Bautista continues to struggle.  So who at this point in time are Toronto’s big two?

Would you believe Encarnaciion and Rasmus?

After Sunday’s win over the Royals, those two were 1-2 on the team in OPS: EE at .981 and Colby at .784.  They each put together truly phenomenal weeks at the plate as well.  Encarnacion hit .375 with a 1.012 OPS last week, chipping in 9 hits, 2 doubles, a home run, 4 RBI and 3 walks, along with a stolen base.  Rasmus, after a slow start, hit .348 with a 1.075 OPS, 8 hits, 2 HR, and 4 RBI, along with playing gold glove calibre D in CF.

You have to think it’s only a matter of time before Bautista gets going, and if Lawrie picks it up a bit, and EE and Colby continue to hit, we could be looking at something we haven’t seen since the early ’90′s: Four Big Bats.

3. Beat the Teams You Should

There’s an old saying in any sport that goes something like this: teams that are good beat the teams they should.

(Note – I don’t think it actually rhymed, but it sounds way better that way no?)

What it essentially boils down to is that teams that are at or near the top never look past an opponent.  The Blue Jays are a good team this year, picked by many to make the playoffs.  But the only way they are going to make it that far is to beat up on the lesser teams in the league.  The Jays can reasonably expect to be close to .500 against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, Tigers, and Angels when all is said and done, but they have to make sure they win games against the others.

They didn’t get off to a great start, losing two of three to the Orioles, but got a chance for redemption last Friday by kicking of a 10-game stretch against Kansas City, Baltimore, and Seattle (combined 2011 record of 207 – 279).  We’re used to seeing teams like the Yankees go 8-2 or 9-1 in stretches like this and begin to pull away, while “pretenders” often go 4-6.

The Jays are out to prove that they aren’t pretenders, and by getting off to a 3-0 start in this stretch, they are on the right track.  The big test is to see if they can keep the foot on the gas, because every win in April helps so much more come September.

As I have freely admitted before on this site, I love the Blue Jays but sadly am not super informed about the minor league system.  Don’t get me wrong – I know who Toronto’s blue chip prospects are, but wouldn’t consider myself a prospect expert.

Luckily, I know a man who is.

He is 500 Level Fan’s Ottawa correspondent specializing in the Blue Jays minor league system.  He has provided this site with extensive write-ups on the 2010 Draft, along with last year’s call up of Henderson Alvarez.  So who better to ask about tomorrow’s first major league start for Drew Hutchison than David “Willie Canate Fan” Yarwood himself?

Named Toronto’s 5th starter today, Drew Hutchison has completed a rapid rise through baseball’s minor leagues. A 15th round pick in 2009, Hutchison has only one full season of professional baseball under his belt. Hutchison started his pro career in 2010 in short-season ball, but was promoted late in the season.  Hutchison had a very successful 2011 season where he was promoted twice, reaching AA for his final three starts.   He was dominant in his brief stay at AA, striking out 21 batters in 15 innings, giving up only 10 hits, 2 BB and 2 runs.

Hutchison made a number of top prospect lists this year, but was not listed in Baseball America’s or Baseball Prospectus’ top 100.  He is not necessarily the kind of player that attracts a lot of love from prospect watchers, because his skills — control, composure, an effective changeup, fastball command — are not as highly regarded as mid to high 90s heat.  However, there are many successful MLB pitchers who can’t throw in the high 90s, but very few who can’t properly command a fastball. 

Hutchison is considered very polished for a 21 year old, with excellent fastball and change up command.  He has a developing slider that Jays coaches say improved a lot in the last year.  His fastball has good movement and sits around 90-92 mph.  In a recent interview with John Farrell, the Jays manager said the areas where Hutchison needs the most improvement are his command of his slider and ability to hold runners.

Management spoke highly of Hutchison all off-season and it is clear that he is in the team’s long-term plans, even if his arrival was somewhat sooner than expected.  Hutchison has a chance to succeed right away, but with only 31 innings pitched above A-ball, it might be a while before he is ready to stay in the majors for good.

Hutchison starts tomorrow night in Kansas City.  Good luck kid!

Through 12 games of the 2012 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays are 6-6.  They are in fourth place in the AL East, 1.5 games back of first place Baltimore (that’s not a typo – the Orioles are in first early on).

Maybe it’s the fact that the Jays dropped two straight blowouts to the Rays to end the first homestand.  Maybe it’s because they lost two of three to the Orioles.  Maybe it’s because Toronto is now under .500 at home.  I don’t know.  What I do know is that I am hearing a lot of talk in a lot of places that the Jays are up for another stinker of a season – because 12 games (which, by the way, equals 7.4% of the 2012 schedule) can foreshadow an entire season.

One thing all of those people have in common, is a two word phrase that they continuously say: slow start.  As in, the Jays are off to a slow start, or the slow start could ruin the season.

To all you panickers out there, I’m hear to talk you off the ledge.

Here are five reasons why the Toronto Blue Jays as a team, contrary to what you think, are NOT off to a slow start:

1. On the surface, it appears that the pitching staff as a whole is struggling.  Aside from a good opening weekend in Cleveland, Jays pitchers not named Romero and Drabek haven’t been firing on all cylinders.  The entire staff has allowed 50 walks, second most in the American League.  They have also allowed 20 HR, tied for most in the AL.  The bullpen specifically – yes, the remade, new and improved bullpen – is having a tough time.  A 4.76 ERA is 10th in the AL, 23 walks are the most in the AL, a K/BB ratio of 1.74 ranks third last, and 4 blown saves are a league worst.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story.  The staff has only allowed 92 hits, tied with the Chicago for the fewest hits allowed, but the H/9 ratio is better due to all the extra inning games they’ve played.  They are also better than league average in WHIP, and ERA+.  One rocky start for Morrow and Alvarez, and a few bad 9th innings (two of which happened when the game was pretty much out of reach anyways) have negatively skewed the stats. 

2. Toronto’s offense appears to be struggling too.  Bautista only has 2 HR.  Arencibia only raised his average above .100 yesterday, and Rasmus only recently raised his average above .200.  Kelly Johnson is tied for 9th in the AL in strikeouts.

But here’s what you might not know.  Bautista is tied for the AL lead with 11 walks, showing that he hasn’t lost his eye at the plate and that he’s still getting on base (he’s actually 22nd in the AL in OBP, ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez).  Encarnacion is in the top-20 in OPS.  As a team they are better than league average in HR, runs per game, and walks.  For all the grief that everybody gives Adam Lind, Toronto’s first basemen have combined for a .864 OPS, good for 5th in the AL – and that is mostly Lind.

3. Advanced fielding metrics are hard to trust, but for what it’s worth, baseball reference has the Jays as the best defensive team in the AL – by a mile.  Toronto’s defensive efficiency is .761, 1st in the league and way ahead of 2nd place Oakland.  More telling is the Total Fielding Runs Above Average stat, which shows the Jays at +22.  Second place is Oakland at +11.  The league average is +2. (For reference purposes, the Yankees are dead last at -12).

4.  If you would have told me before the season started that through 12 games Bautista would have 2 HR and would be hitting in the low .200′s, that Arencibia, Rasmus, and Thames would be having a tough time, that the bullpen would implode a few times, and that Morrow would be off to a rough season through 3 starts, yet we’d still be .500 I would have taken it in a heartbeat.  Especially considering the schedule.  Cleveland, Tampa, and Boston combined to finish 36 games over .500 last year, and the Orioles were off to a great start (first place tie!) when the Jays played them.  Looking at that, I’m surprised we aren’t 4-8 or 3-9.

5. If, after all this, you still think the Jays are off to a slow start, I ask you to look around baseball.

The Angels, the team that made the biggest splash in free agency, signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, are 4-9 – dead last in the AL West.

Boston, the powerful, fully loaded Red Sox, is decimated by injuries and sit 4-8 – dead last in the AL East.

The Phillies, lead by the best top-3 starting pitcher combo in the game, are 6-7 – dead last in the NL East.

The Cincinnati Reds, the pick of many pundits to win the NL Central, are 5-8 and below the Pirates in the standings.  The defending Central champion Brewers are also under .500.

San Francisco, lead by Tim Lincecum’s 10.54 ERA, are also at 6-6 and already 3.5 GB of the Dodgers.

So relax fans.  Things aren’t as bad as they seem.  All things considered, I’m glad Toronto is .500.

Stay tuned – this team is getting set to explode.

(from daylife.com)

Due to a high level of tiredness from Tuesday night’s game (which resulted in multiple beers and a very late bed time), I decided to skip last night’s game and watch from my couch.

Turned out to be a good move.

The Jays didn’t just lose the game.  They were destroyed.  Completely and utterly destroyed.  The ten run loss was the largest of this young season (by far) and the largest since September 13 of last year.

There some good things that happened, if you’re a glass-full kind of guy.  Jose Bautista continued to rebound from his brutal start with a 1 for 3  game that included two walks.  His OPS is now up to .783.  Edwin Encarnacion (from now on referred to as EFMEE – Everybody’s Favourite Man Edwin Encarnacion), had two more hits to raise his average to .283.  Brett Lawrie stretched his hitting streak to five straight games, and Yunel Escobar spanked four hits and is now 7 for his past 14 at-bats. 

Yes Carlos Villanueva had a rough day, but it was his first appearance since the opening series in Cleveland, and let’s be honest:  I would rather a reliever come into the game and allow six runs in the ninth when we’re already down by four than a reliever allow six when we’re up by four.  A loss is a loss – who cares by how much.

If there was anything troubling about last night it’s this: Brandon Morrow looked bad.  6 IP, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 HR, and only 2 K.  He has three starts so far in 2012 – one good, one decent, and one bad.  His ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 ratios are all better than they were in 2011 thus far, but unfortunately his K/9 is substantially worse, and he has allowed a league worst 6 HR. 

It is early, and I still believe that Morrow will put it all together this year.  But for a guy who has struggled with consistency in his career, that is not the kind of trend we want to see.

Looking at the pitching matchups in advance of the series and seeing career Blue Jay killer David Price slated to start last night, I think most people expected that if the Jays were going to lose a game in the series it would be that one . Well, they did.

Now- let’s move on.  First place awaits.

The baseball season is long – 162 games long, so calling any game this early in the season a must-win game is a bit harsh.  But Sunday’s series finale against the Orioles had that feel to it.  A loss would have meant a series sweep – at home none-the-less – to the perennial door mat Orioles, destroying all early season momentum.  Some Toronto fans, notoriously fickle, were already starting to waver in their support of the club, and the leak in the bandwagon might have grown if the slump continued.

Thankfully the offense finally awoke, exploding for a seven run 6th inning to pace the team to a 9-2 win and keep the Jays above the .500 mark.  Yes it’s a long season, but every game counts, even those in April against Baltimore.

Here are three things from week 2:

Week 2: April 9 – April 15

Record: 3 – 3

1. Bautista Missing in Action

It was a week to forget for Toronto’s MVP.  Bautista, coming off back-to-back monster seasons, seemed to pick up right where he left off with a 3 for 4 opener that included a home run and 2 RBI.  Unfortunately not much has gone right since.  Bautista is still sitting at 1 HR and 2 RBI, and his rate stats are sinking like a stone.  In six games last week Bau was 3 for 22 for a .136 average and a .390 OPS and an alarming 5 strikeouts.

To my admittedly uneducated batting eye it looks like a matter of timing.  Bautista’s leg kick looks to be either a fraction of a second early or a fraction of a second late, leading to several mis-hit balls, pop outs, and swings and misses.  If there is a silver lining, it looks like he is slowly putting things back together.  On Sunday he hit a double, scored a run, drew a walk, and smoked a line drive that was right at the third baseman – an out, yes, but solid contact.

Hopefully an off day on Monday will be all he needs to get things back together.

2. Edwin for Life!

While Bautista continues to struggle, along with a few other higher profile Jays, one man continues to dominate.  500 Level Fan’s favourite man, Edwin Encarnacion is off to a terrific start.  He leads all starters with a .957 OPS, and his 9 RBI place him in a tie for fourth in the AL.  Last week he posted a 1.148 OPS and even threw in two stolen bases for good measure.

Put into context with the struggles of the rest of the team, his hot start is great.  But it’s even better when compared with the way he started last season.  Edwin didn’t hit his third HR last year until June 25th.  At the end of May, he was hitting .247 with a .619 OPS, only 1 HR and 10 RBI.  He was playing atrociously in the field, and looked shaken, with little to no confidence.  There was even talk about shipping him to the minors or releasing him.

Now, EE looks like a changed man, dripping confidence, and playing with a fire that we haven’t seen in him since arriving in Toronto.  What a difference a year makes.

3. Kyle Drabek – Fact or Fiction?

6.06.  1.81.  55.  14.

Those were some of the 2011 numbers of Kyle Drabek.  A 6.06 ERA, league worst 1.81 WHIP, 55 walks, and only 14 starts before being shipped to AAA Vegas.  After his numbers in the minors ended up looking worse, many fans simply gave up on him.  Suddenly, the key piece of the Roy Halladay trade was no longer blue chip prospect Kyle Drabek.  It was now catcher Travis d’Arnaud.

It’s still very early, but we might want to rethink that statement.  Drabek wasn’t even supposed to make the team out of spring training, but an injury to Dustin McGowan opened up a spot in the rotation and Drabek has stepped in and run with it.  Through two starts, he is a perfect 2-0.  His ERA is 1.42 as he has allowed only 2 ER in 12.2 IP.  His stuff is still nasty, with 10 strikeouts for a 7.1 K/9 ratio.  And most important of all, his control looks a lot better too.  Thus far he has allowed only 4 walks.  His BB/9 is 2.8, far, far below the brutal 6.3 ratio in 2011.

Now, two starts do not make a season, but it’s hard not to be excited with the way Drabek is pitching.  He isn’t getting down on himself after allowing a home run, or a timely hit, and he isn’t throwing tantrums in the dugout when things don’t go his way.  After Adam Jones hit a 900 foot home run in the 6th yesterday, I was expecting a meltdown that never came.

If Drabek can keep it up, maybe the rotation will be a strength after all.

A very special Fan of the Game submission today, provided by a man who was as far as away from the dome as you can get in Canada – rainy Vancouver, home of the dreadfully disappointing Canucks.

Via the wonder that is Twitter, here is the latest edition of the 500 Level Fan of the Game.

“Brett Lawrie’s attempt to steal home and the anticipation of Bau breaking out of his slow start at the plate are usually pretty exciting things to look out for at the Dome.  Well tell that to this mini 500 level fan of the game – The Beautiful Infant. 

 The Beautiful Infant is the six week old Lily, and by the looks of it, she is already a fan. With a cute little Blue Jay shirt, she looks like she has been a fan for years. 

 Though I was not at the game, I understand (via twitter) that Lily was an aggressive sleeper at the Dome. Unlike her father, who shall remain nameless, Lily is not passed out due to robust alcohol intake.  Rather Lily is tired because she is a baby. 

 Being a baby at the dome has to be difficult. No decent food by baby standards, beer isn’t served warm (or served from a breast) and most of all there are so many idiots screaming uncontrollably. By the looks of it, Lily could care less – she’ll be just fine!

 This was the first of many many trips to the Dome for Lily, and one thing is for sure, she fits right in. She looks the part, and will demand that AA puts the best possible team on the field. 

 The Beautiful Infant was easily the most well behaved person at the game. Lily, keep up the good work!”

And Sauny – you keep up the good work as well.  Keep the fan of the game submissions coming!

“When you have the opportunity, you strike,” – Rod Laver

It is often said that opportunity seldom knocks twice.  When you get the chance to do something great, take it – that chance might never come again.

In sports, one of the most famous examples of this took place on June 2, 1925, when a struggling New York Yankees team sat slumping first baseman Wally Pipp in favour of Lou Gehrig.  Recognizing his chance may have finally come, Gehrig went on to play 2,129 more games consecutively on his way to the Hall of Fame. 

There are also two big examples in recent Toronto sporting history that apply.  In 1992, Felix Potvin replaced struggling future Hall of Famer Grant Fuhr between the Leafs pipes, and ended up leading Toronto to back-to-back Conference Finals.  In September of 2009, a career underachiever who had bounced around several teams was finally given a chance to be an everyday regular.  Two and a half years later, Jose Bautista is the back-to-back Home Run King and one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

So how does this apply to the Blue Jays in 2012?

The answer is easy.  When it comes to professional sports, Toronto is a wasteland, a desolate, grey graveyard of past success and little hope for the future.

The Maple Leafs have now missed the NHL Playoffs for seven consecutive seasons, by far the longest stretch in the history of the franchise.  This past year was arguably the worst yet, a season that offered a glimmer of hope punctuated by one of the worst collapses the team has ever seen: a 7-18-4 finish to drop from 6th to 13th in the conference.  What’s more, for the first time that I can remember, fans are turning on the Leafs.  They are no longer a guaranteed sellout that carry a certain “all will be forgiven” stigma with fans.  Chants of “Let’s go Blue Jays” at the ACC, along with a cavalcade of boo’s aimed at Joffrey Lupul on Wednesday when he made an appearance at the dome prove that.

The NBA playoffs are just around the corner, but the Raptors will be nowhere near the postseason, a 20-39 record burying them in 13th place in the East.  The team is still somehow averaging just under 17,000 per game, but on most nights the fans are there to see the opposition, not the Raptors.  Even looking around the streets, how often do you see a Raptors hat / jersey / t-shirt?  Not very often.  Four straight years out of the playoffs, three playoff wins in the past 10 years, and only one series win in franchise history will do that.

The third jewel in the MLSE crown, Toronto FC, have turned from a novelty to an embarrassment.  Don’t get me wrong – I love soccer, and I love the FC, but come on.  The team has never made the playoffs in its existence, and is currently sitting dead last in the entire league at 0-4, the only team without a point (and with a -7 goal difference to boot).  Perhaps the most telling thing about fan interest in TFC is this: I can now buy a ticket.  After several years of full sellouts, that is a bad sign.

Toronto has two other teams, but the Argos have been going backwards for years, and while the Rock are a good team, lacrosse has not yet become a mainstream sport.

So where does that leave us?

In my mind, that leaves a huge city, the biggest city in Canada with over 2.5 million people (and almost 6 million in the GTA) without a sports identity.  That leaves a city that loves to win, with a hunger for championships, with a collection of losing teams to root for.  That leaves a lot of disillusioned and jaded fans looking for something new.

And that, my friends, is the opportunity that the Blue Jays need. 

There was a time when the Jays didn’t need others to fail in order to succeed.  They were the toast of the town from the mid-80′s to the mid-90′s, but a series of lean years and an 18 year playoff drought have eroded the fanbase.  Past management have tried to increase interest by bringing in big names (Jose Canseco, Roger Clemens, Frank Thomas), big contracts (B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett), and big wastes (John Thomson, Tomo Ohka, Josh Towers).  But it took a young GM to realize what his predecessors didn’t.  Toronto fans want to win, yes, but they also want to identify with their team.  When players spend their free time injecting each other with steroids, or demanding trades, or wishing they were elsewhere, fans won’t embrace them.

What Alex Anthopoulos has assembled is more than just a team that has a chance to succeed this year.  It is also more than just a team that has a chance to succeed next year and the year after that.  The 2012 Toronto Blue Jays is a young team that a) is excited to play baseball, b) is excited to play baseball with each other, and c) is excited to play baseball in Toronto.  Players walk around town like anybody else, hitting up local restaurants like normal people, talking to fans instead of hiding.  Social media sites like Twitter have played a huge part in connecting fans to players, and kudos for Toronto’s front office for not banning players from Twitter like some others might.

The Jays have seen an enormous opportunity and have jumped right into it.  The new logo and uniforms was beautifully timed, and has been a huge success.  I see hundreds and hundreds of Jays caps around the city each and every day, and probably 75% of the fans at Tuesday night’s game wore something with the new logo. 

So far, things look like they are paying off.  A sold out home opener.  Over 26,000 in attendance on a cold, rainy Tuesday night, and over 25,000 at a 12:30 game on a Wednesday afternoon.  Yes the Red Sox were in town, which normally inflates attendance stats a bit, but I swear that the number of Jays fans FAR outnumbered the Bostonians on Tuesday.

Times are changing.  Whether or not the Blue Jays can keep up the pace and challenge for a division title and a World Series this year remains to be seen.

But by the end of the year Toronto might no longer be Leafs-Town. 

It might be a Blue Jays City.