Let me start by clarifying a few things: I am not a huge football fan, and this is a baseball blog, but yes – I am writing about football.

Here’s why: I’m getting sick of hearing about the New England Patriots.  Everybody on Twitter has given them the Superbowl this year after Green Bay lost yesterday.  Everybody is saying that they are a super team, that they are a dynasty, that this year’s incarnation is the best ever.

To which I respond – garbage.

The 2012 New England Patriots played 16 games, and the end of season combined winning percentage of their 16 opponents was a staggering .449.  The teams that played New England lost 26 more games than they won.  The Patriots played only two (2!!!) games in the regular season against teams that finished with winning records: Pittsburgh and the NY Giants.  The Patriots lost them both.

On the other hand, take a team like the poor Cleveland Browns.  Cleveland also played 16 football games this season, only the final winning percentage of their 16 opponents was .531.  Their opponents won 16 games more than they lost.  The Browns played an unbelievable 9 games against teams that would finish the season with a winning record.  They went 0 – 9 in those contests.

So on the one side of the equation you have New England, who played 12.5% of their schedule against good teams.  On the other you have Cleveland who played 56.25% of their schedule against winning teams.  Both of those teams play in the same conference and battle for the same Wild Card spots.

Yet New England, despite playing a schedule softer than Bartolo Colon’s belly, is being touted as the best team in the league and a Superbowl lock.

That’s like Toronto being asked to play 56% of their games against Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Texas, and the Angels, despite being in the same league and battling for the same Wild Card spot, only being asked to play 12% of their games against those teams, and the rest against Baltimore, Kansas City, and Seattle. 

Oh wait…

It may not be to the same extent, but this happens already in baseball thanks to the unbalanced schedule. 

Poor Blue Jays.  Poor, poor Browns.

And that, friends, is the reason why New England doesn’t deserve all the praise they’ve been given.  Yes I understand that you only play the schedule you’ve been given, but as us Blue Jay fans can attest to – not all schedules are created equal.

If you’ve noticed anybody around you acting weird, don’t worry – today is Friday the 13th, a day full of superstition.

Friggatriskaidekaphobia is what the fear of this day is known as, and a quick look at the baseball history books shows that many major league GM’s might be afflicted with it.

Today marks the 67th Friday the 13th since 1973 (thanks Wikipedia!).  On the 66 prior Friday the 13th’s, baseball reference tells me that there have been a total of 159 transactions in the major leagues.  And while an average of 2.4 transactions a day might sound like a good amount, keep this in mind: on what is being described as a pretty slow offseason, there were six transactions made on Wednesday (January 11th) of this week alone.

If we only include Friday the 13th’s during the season (i.e. April through September), the number drops to just over two per day (71 moves in 35 days).

On top of those numbers, a look at each of those moves tells us that the overwhelming majority were minor…very minor.  Trades involving fringe prospects and bench players, and several lower tier players being signed to free agent contracts.  A few moves of note from Friday the 13th’s past include the Rangers trading future Oakland ace Dave Stewart to Philadelphia in 1985, the Yankees signing amateur free agent Bernie Williams (also in ’85), Seattle trading David Ortiz to Minnesota for Dave Hollins (1996), and Cleveland trading away future Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry to Texas in 1975.  However, perhaps the most notable move ever made on a Friday the 13th happened to be made by your Toronto Blue Jays.

Looking back through the annals of Friday the 13th’s, the Jays have made a total of five transactions in their history.  Four of them were inconsequential:

- 1979: signed Jackson Todd

- 1994: signed an over-the-hill Dave Righetti

- 2006: traded Scott Schoeneweis to Cincinnati for Trevor Lawhorn

- 2009: signed the lovable but injury prone Dirk “The Garfoose” Hayhurst

But the fifth transaction, occurring on Friday the 13th 1996, was one of the biggest moves in franchise history.  On that day the Toronto Blue Jays announced the signing of pitcher Roger Clemens.  That one turned out to be a pretty good move – for both Toronto and Roger.

But why, other than the moves mentioned above, is there so little activity of consequence on Friday the 13th?  Are MLB GM’s superstitious?  Are they afraid of making big moves – afraid that something negative will happen?  Or are they just simply afraid of the spirit of Jason Voorhees?

Hard to say. 

But don’t fear.  There are two more Friday the 13th’s in 2012, and both fall during the baseball season.  One is in April, where we are likely to see little movement.  But the second falls in July, just a few weeks before the trade deadline.

Will Jason prevent anything big from happening to contending teams on that day?

I generally try to avoid commentary on the Hall of Fame voting procedure, because, honestly, it is terrible, unfair, and extremely flawed.  Any time baseball writers have the ability to vote for something of meaning, they almost always screw it up.  Most of the time it is because a voter carries a personal agenda with him/her when they fill out their ballot.  They want to make a name for themselves by doing something outrageous that stands out.  Often times it works – we now know the name Evan Grant as the idiot who gave Michael Young a first place MVP vote.  His vote was likely 25% because he believed Young deserved it, and 75% because his ego wanted publicity and recognition.

After all, how can you trust a process in which Babe Ruth, not only the greatest player, but also one of the greatest pitchers in the history of the game, only received 95.1% of the vote in the first Hall of Fame election?  11 voters left Ruth off their ballots.  Ridiculous!  One old story goes that a writer left Ruth off the ballot because he didn’t like the way Ruth treated him on road trips.  Seriously?  At that point in time the entire general public should have clued in that the Hall is flawed.

Anyways, here are two thoughts that came to mind after the 2012 class was unveiled yesterday.

1. Poor Alan Trammell

As a Blue Jays fan, I don’t like Alan Trammell.  Him and the rest of the Tigers tormented my youth, constantly beating out Toronto when the teams were both AL East division rivals.  But as a baseball fan, I (generally) can recognize a good player from a bad player, a great player from a good player, and an elite player from a great player.  In my mind, Alan Trammell was an elite baseball player, one that is worthy of the Hall of Fame.

But don’t take my word for it.  Let’s look at the numbers to see what they say.  Below is a table comparing Trammell to four other shortstops who made the Hall of Fame in recent years – Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, and this year’s inductee Barry Larkin.  (Note that Yount played the last several years of his career as a CF so his numbers may be a bit skewed).

As you can see, Cal Ripken is clearly the leader in all counting stats.  But Trammell holds his own in the rate stats, with a batting average and OBP only bettered by Larkin, and an OPS in the vicinity of Yount.  His OPS+, which is adjusted for ballparks and era, is virtually tied with the other four hitters. 

This second table shows a few more advanced stats as well as honours and awards:

As you can see, in terms of WAR, Yount and Ripken are far ahead, but Trammell is essentially tied with both Smith and Larkin.  Defensively, everybody knows how amazing Smith was – that is the main reason he made the Hall.  But Trammell, according to total zone fielding runs above average, is a far better defender that both Yount and Larkin.  Though he never won an MVP, he finished in the top-20 in voting six times.  (All-Star game appearances and Gold Gloves should be taken with a grain of salt as they are basically popularity contests.  How else do you explain Ozzie making the 1995 team despite being injured, batting .250 at the break, and finishing with a .199 average?).

Finally, look at the post-season stats for the five players:

Yes Trammell played fewer games, but slugged the most HR, had by far the highest OPS, and also won a World Series title. 

Clearly, Trammell is nearly on equal footing with these four HOFers.  So how does one explain this:

Yount – First Ballot Hall of Famer (77.5% of the vote)

Smith – First Ballot Hall of Famer (91.7%)

Ripken – First Ballot Hall of Famer (98.5%)

Larkin – Third Ballot Hall of Famer (86.4%)

Trammell – 11th year on the ballot, 36.8% max

Is it an anti-Detroit bias?  After all, many great players from those glory years including Jack Morris (13th year on the ballot) and Lou Whitaker (career 69.7 WAR – better than Barry Larkin – lasted only one year on the ballot) are constantly falling short.  Is it because he didn’t have a cool nickname like Ozzie (the Wizard), couldn’t do a backflip like Ozzie, didn’t set any hallowed records like Cal, or didn’t lead his team to a huge World Series upset like Barry?  Who knows.  I only know that Trammell deserves his due, and he’s likely not going to get it.

2. Future Jays in the Hall?

I have a co-worker who is an enormous Cincinnati Reds fan, and who is understandably thrilled with Barry Larkin’s induction.  He sent an email to me yesterday saying “I plan on attending my first HOF induction weekend!”

As Blue Jays fans, we all had a thrill last year with the induction of Roberto Alomar into the Hall of Fame as a Blue Jay.  Unfortunately I wasn’t able to attend, and after receiving that email yesterday I thought to myself if I’ll ever be able to attend another HOF induction ceremony for a Blue Jay.  Sadly, it doesn’t look likely, at least anytime soon. 

There will certainly be players that get inducted to the Hall that played for the Blue Jays.  Frank Thomas comes to mind.  Maybe Roger Clemens (depending on how the steroid vote goes down).  But those guys will not be wearing the Blue Jay cap in Cooperstown.  So who’s next?

The two names that jump to mind at first are Carlos Delgado and Roy Halladay.  Delgado finished with great career numbers: a .280 batting average, 473 HR, and a .929 OPS.  He also finished in the top-20 of MVP voting six times.  But are those numbers enough?  Fred McGriff has similar stats (in fact he’s Delgado’s closest comparable player according to baseball reference) and he’s having a difficult time getting anywhere close to induction.  I think he’ll fal short.

Then there’s Halladay.  In my mind, he’s a sure fire Hall of Famer.  But will he go in as a Jay?  Debatable.  At the present time, you can make a case that he should.  14 seasons, 12 of which were in Toronto.  He started his career here, won a Cy Young here, become a superstar here.  But he isn’t retiring now.  He likely has another 4-5 years left, and there’s a good chance that all of those will be in Philadelphia.  There’s also a good chance he goes to the playoffs several more times as a Phillie, wins another Cy Young as a Phillie, and maybe wins a World Series as a Phillie.  If so, he’s going into Cooperstown as a Phillie.

Which leads me to this conclusion.  I’m not going to see a Blue Jay inducted into the Hall of Fame until I’m a much older man.  Sad.

With all of the big name free agents changing teams this offseason, Jays fans can be forgiven for being disappointed about our team’s lack of activity.  But that all changed with the news that Toronto finally made a splash in the free agent market.

The Jays didn’t go with a big name, however.

They went with an old name. 

And by old, I don’t mean an old member of the club coming back to Toronto. 

I mean old.  As in well aged.

The key word in that last sentence, however, is well.  Lefty Darren Oliver may be 41-years old, making him one of the elder statesmen of the major leagues, but he is still good.  Very good.  As has been well stated in the baseball media, Oliver’s best four seasons have been his last four seasons.  His ERA has declined in each of his past four years (two spent with the Angels and two with the Rangers): from 2.88 in 2008 to 2.29 in 2011.

Oliver is a shining example of what career transition means for a pitcher.  He made his major league debut in 1993 (a great year for Jays fans!) as a starter.  He was used primarily as a starter until he missed the entire 2005 season.  His career numbers as a starter?  Sub-par – 5.13 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.44 K/BB.

However, in 2006 he was converted to a full-time reliever, and blossomed.  His career stats as a reliever prove it: 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.44 K/BB.

Baseball, like all sports, is a “what have you done for me lately” industry.  It might be nice that you were dominant five years ago, but if you can’t cut it now….

That is why Oliver, despite a fairly hefty $4-million price tag, is a good signing.  Not only has he been getting better with age, but he has been saving his best for last. 

In 2011 he held left-handed hitters to a .227 average and .587 OPS.  His WHIP was a tidy 1.14.  Best of all, he pitched well against the AL East.  Yes I realize that it is a small sample size, but he tossed 4.1 scoreless innings against the Yankees, 3.2 scoreless innings against the Rays, 1 scoreless inning against the Orioles, and allowed 3 ER in 4.2 innings against Boston.  All in, that’s a 1.98 ERA against the teams Toronto will face most often in 2012.

But the Oliver signing is about more than just adding a quality arm to the Jays ‘pen.  It is about adding a quality lefty arm to the Jays ‘pen.  Take a quick look at all lefty relievers that the Jays employed in 2011 and tell me if you get excited.  The best by a landslide was Marc Rzepczynski, and he’s gone now, off celebrating a World Series title.  The rest?  Luis Perez was decent, but inconsistent, evidenced by his 4.27 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and .775 OPS against as a reliever.  Wil Ledezma, Rommie Lewis, Trever Miller, David Purcey, and Brian Tallet combined for an 11.42 ERA – and all are now off the team.

So not only do the Jays get a lefty, they get a good lefty.  They also get a veteran lefty, one who has 18 seasons of experience, a career WAR of 17.5 (7.0 in the last four years), and 30 games of playoff exposure.

On a young team, that could prove more valuable than anything.

Besides, even if he doesn’t pitch well, he’ll be visiting Bay Bloor Radio a whole lot more, right @dsharpdavis?

There’s nothing better than a good ol’ New Years Resolution.  Nothing brings more laughter, light-hearted humour, and comic relief than listening to resolutions, because so many of them are so absolutely ridiculous.  Here are some real ones I’ve heard:

“I want to work out EVERY DAY!”

“I will not eat ANYTHING unhealthy for the ENTIRE year!”

“I vow to read two full length books EVERY MONTH!”

“I will reduce my booze intake to only ONE beer a WEEK!”

Hilarious!  When you set such lofty goals you are setting yourself up for failure.  A more meaningful resolution equals a better chance to actually meet it.

The same logic applies to what I want to see for the Blue Jays in 2012.  I can easily say things like I want the Jays to win the World Series, or I want Bautista to win the AL MVP, or I want Brett Lawrie to smash 45 homers.  But are those things really realistic?  Maybe, but not likely.

So let me present to you five realistic objectives that I would like to see happen for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012.

1. J.P. Arencibia to raise his average to .250

Arencibia hit .219 last year, which was the lowest batting average among all AL catchers with at least 450 plate appearances, putting him behind players such as Miguel Olivo and Kurt Suzuki.  However, JPA also ranked 7th in OPS at .720, 2nd in HR with 23, and 4th in RBI with 78.  Based on his number of at-bats last year, a .250 average would require an additional 14 hits.  Those 14 hits would also raise his OBP from a dreadful .282 to a more respectable .311 and his OPS to over .780 (which, incidentally, would have been 4th best in the AL for catchers last year).

But can he do it?  His minor league numbers suggest he can, as he hit .301 in triple-A in 2010, and had a career minor league average of .275.  His major league splits from last year suggest otherwise, as he failed to eclipse the .216 mark in any individual month after May.

However, in his second full season in the big leagues, I think that 14 extra base hits isn’t out of the question.

2. A breakout year for Colby Rasmus

In 2009 as a 22 year old rookie, Rasmus hit 16 HR, had a .251 average and a .714 OPS and finished 8th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.  In 2010, in his sophomore season, Rasmus improved to 23 HR, a .276 average and .859 OPS.  In 2011, with a lot of hype about becoming baseball’s next big star, Rasmus fell flat and found himself traded to Toronto.  His numbers in Toronto were horrific – .173 average, .517 OPS, 3 HR in 35 games.

But a lot has been made of his time in St. Louis, about how he didn’t get along with manager TonyLaRussa, about his feuding with some teammates and with the media.  St. Louis was also a veteran team with a set identity – maybe not the place for a young up-anc-comer to really feel at home.

A full season in Toronto might finally be what the doctor ordered.  He will be surrounded by youth, on a team with tons of potential, and with less pressure than the past.  I don’t want to ask for 40 HR and a .950 OPS, but I think numbers exceeding his 2010 campaign are entirely possible.

3. Consistency from Brandon Morrow

The overall numbers were similar to 2010: 11 wins, a higher ERA (4.79) but a reduced WHIP (1.29) and walk rate (3.5 BB/9).  However the way he got there was not at all pretty, as Morrow took us all on a wild, rollercoaster of a ride.  Check out his ERA and WHIP splits:

April: 3.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

May: 5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

June: 3.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

July: 4.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

August: 5.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

September: 4.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Good then bad.  Good then bad.  The change was evident start-to-start as well.  Look at this 6-game stretch beginning May 21st:

May 21 vs. Houston: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

May 26 vs. Chicago: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

May 31 vs. Cleveland: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

June 6 vs. KC: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

June 11 vs. Boston: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

June 18 vs. Cincinnati: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

There is reason to believe that he is capable of becoming a solid starting pitcher however.  First, he is entering his third season with Toronto, and third as a full-time starter.  His arm strength has been built up and the inning limits will likely be off.  In other words, he won’t be treated with kid gloves this year.  Second, he ended 2011 with a bang.  His final three starts of the season looked like this: 2-0, 21 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 10 BB, 24 K, 0.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .486 OPS against.

I’m not asking for staff ace type numbers, just consistency each and every start.  I think he delivers in 2012.

4. Ninth inning reliability

In 2006, B.J. Ryan made his Blue Jays debut and put together one of the most dominant seasons by a Toronto closer.  Ever.  38 saves, 1.37 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 0.86 WHIP.  It was the kind of season where fans knew that if Toronto took a lead into the ninth, the game was over.  It is the kind of feeling that Yankees fans have had with Mariano Rivera forever.

We haven’t had that feeling in Toronto since.  Ryan blew out his arm in ’07, and while Jeremy Accardo did a good job filling in, he wasn’t trusted.  B.J. returned in ’08 and while the overall numbers were good, his dominance was gone.  Then followed three straight years of musical closers, with Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jon Rauch, and Frank Francisco all taking turns making Jays fans nervous.  Long gone are the days of Ward and Henke.

This year we welcome Sergio Santos into the mix as the newest ninth inning man.  While he may not have the name or the track record of some of the free agent closers that Anthopoulos passed over (Papelbon, Cordero, Madson), he does have the stuff to be dominant.  A 13.1 K/9 ratio in 2010 to go along with 30 saves and a 1.11 WHIP would have blown all Blue Jay relievers out of the water. 

As fans, we don’t necessarily to need to see Ryan circa ’06.  But I think we’ll have the feeling of relative ninth inning safety return.

5. Meaningful games in September

It has been a long, long time since fans in this city have had a pennant race to get excited about.  In Toronto, September has become a time to head to the dome to check out how the young call-ups do in their first taste of big league action, or maybe to go bid farewell to a retiring or departing star.  In the past five years, the closest that Toronto has been to a playoff spot on September 1st was in 2007 when they entered the month 6.5 games back of the Wild Card.  A week later and that deficit had swelled to 9.

The last time fans in this city had reason to be excited was way, way back in 2000, when on September 1st the Blue Jays sat at 70-63, just 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians for the AL Wild Card.  By as late as September 21st the Jays were still just 2.5 games back of Oakland and Cleveland, and only 4.5 behind the Yankees for first in the East, before a 2-8 finish ruined the season.  But for that month, baseball excitement gripped the city.

The subsequent years have been brutal. In 2004 the Jays were 24 games out of the playoffs on September 1.  In 2009, they were 16.5 out.  Last year they trailed the Wild Card by 14.

But with a young core of Lawrie, Arencibia, Rasmus, Thames, and Escobar, surrounding the power of Bautista and (maybe) a return to form of Lind, with Romero, Morrow, and Alvaraez leading the rotation, and Santos closing things out in the bullpen, maybe, just maybe, this is the year for meaningful September games.  With the Yankees aging, and turmoil surrounding the Red Sox, the iron curtain between the Jays and the playoffs might be weaker.  Sure Texas and the Angels look formidable, but with an additional Wild Card spot possibly up for grabs in 2012, I expect the Jays to be making noise in September.

Believe.

2011 can be called a “tweener” year for the Blue Jays.  This is a year in franchise history where Toronto transitioned itself from an also-ran to a true contender, by cutting ties with players like Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Johnny Mac, and various relievers, and bringing in new full time superstars in the making like Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and Henderson Alvarez.

Let’s have a look back at they year that was, month by month, both the good and the bad:

January

Highlight

Jan. 21: Jays trade Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  Vernon was the face of the franchise for so many years, but with declining production and his enormous contract he was becoming an anchor on the team.  The fact that Anthopoulos was able to unload him is still seen as incredible, almost a year later.

Lowlight

Jan. 25: Jays trade Mike Napoli to Texas for Frank Francisco.  At the time I liked the deal, but in hindsight it looks pretty bad.  Napoli finished 2011 with 30 HR and a 1.046 OPS for the Rangers.

February

Highlight

Feb. 17: Jose Bautista signs a five-year $65-million extension.  Criticized by many as being an overpayment for one fluke year, Bau proved everybody wrong by having an MVP-calibre season.  That contract looks like a steal now.

Lowlight

Feb. 16: Jays sigm Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal.  He never played a single inning with the team, and all that the signing did was clutter up the outfield in spring training.  Waste.  

March

Highlight

Mar. 31: Toronto hires Roberto Alomar as a special assistant to the organization.  Having the Hall-of-Famer join the front office shows commitment to the history of the club, as well as the future.

Lowlight

Mar. 29: Jose Bautista named right fielder for the 2011 season.  What is bad about the declaration is that by starting Bautista in right, Edwin Encarnacion (a terrible defender) moves to 3B and Juan Rivera (a terrible hitter) to DH.  It took a while, but the Jays eventually made it right, by moving Edwin to DH and Rivera to the Dodgers.

April

Highlight

Apr. 1: Opening Day.  The Jays destroyed Minnesota 13-3 behind 6.1 solid innings by Ricky Romero and a barrage of home runs.  A perfect start to the season.

Lowlight

Apr. 28: Travis Snider is sent to the minors after a 1 for 4 afternoon vs. Texas.  The promising and hyped opening day RF was hitting just .184 with a .540 OPS, 1 HR, and 23 strikeouts on the season.  It was the first of two demotions for Snider in what was a disastrous 2011.

May

Highlight

May 16: The Jays pound out 12 hits in a 4-2 win over Detroit, giving the team six straight wins and pushing them back over .500.  The best news of all is that Kyle Drabek pitches seven solid innings, allowing only one earned run on three hits, giving fans a glimmer of hope that maybe, jusy maybe, he’d figured it out. 

Lowlight

May 7: Toronto is completely destroyed, overpowered, and humiliated by Justin Verlander, suffering the indignity of being no-hit at home.  If not for an Arencibia 8th inning walk, the Jays would have suffered a perfect game.

June

Highlight

Jun. 19: Jays lock up Yunel Escobar with a two year $10-million contract extension.  Yunel is regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and had one of his better offensive seasons in 2011 with a .782 OPS.  A great deal for the Jays.

Lowlight

Jun 12: The Jays are demolished at home by the Red Sox, 14-1.  Kyle Drabek is absolutely horrendous in the start, lasting four innings and giving up 8 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, and 4 BB.  The Jays send him down to the minors after the start – his final one in the big leagues in 2011.

July

Highlight

Couldn’t choose just one, so here are four:

Jul 1 & 2: Roy Halladay makes his return to Toronto.  On the 1st he delivers the Phillies line up to the home plate umpire, receiving a standing ovation in the process, and on the 2nd he shuts the Jays down in a complete game victory – but not before surrendering a MASSIVE home run to Jose Bautista.

Jul 3:  Bautista sets an MLB record for most All-Star votes and earns a starting spot in the mid-summer classic.  He is joined by Ricky Romero in Arizona.

Jul 24: Roberto Alomar and Pat Gillick are officially enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.

Jul 27: Alex Anthopoulos makes one of the biggest moves of his tenure as Jays GM, sending Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart to the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahan, then flipping Jackson along with Corey Patterson, Octavio Dotel, and Marc Rzepczynski to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus and three pitchers.  Rasmus looks set to be a fixture in Toronto for years.

Lowlight

Jul 9: Toronto is thrashed at home by Baltimore 12-4, as Brandon Morrow is lit up to the tune of 6 ER, 9 H, and 3 HR allowed in only 3.1 IP.  The start continues Morrow’s up and down season.

August

Highlight

Aug 5: The future is here.  Brett Lawrie makes his debut in Baltimore, going 2 for 4.  Five days later on August 10th, Lawrie hits his first career grand slam off of Oakland’s Craig Breslow, and goes nuts.  Absolutely nuts.

Lowlight

Aug 25: Manager John Farrell leaves the game with pain in the left side of his chest, and is later diagnosed with pneumonia.  Bench coach Don Wakamatsu takes over in his absence.  Farrell misses 10 games.

September

Highlight

Sep. 5 & Sep. 6: Two great moments in a series vs. the Red Sox.  First on Labour Day, Brett Lawrie breaks a scoreless tie in the 11th inning with a walk-off home run to give the Jays a 1-0 victory and kick-off Boston’s September collapse.  Then the next day, after more than two years away from the game, Dustin McGowan returns, coming out of the bullpen to throw four innings, knocking up five strikeouts.

Lowlight

Sep. 28: Back with the team and picthing out of the bullpen to try and prove he belongs in the big leagues, Kyle Drabek is hammered by the Angels, allowing 6 ER in only 2 IP.  His season ERA now stands at 6.03. 

October

Highlight

Oct. 24: Jose Bautista wins his second consecutive Hank Aaron award, given to the top hitter in each league as voted on by fans and media.

Lowlight

Oct. 28: Jays fans watch in disbelief as Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel celebrate a World Series title with St. Louis.  Dotel was outstanding in the playoffs, after being awful with the Jays in the regular season. 

November

Highlight

Nov. 18: Blue Jays unveil their new logo and uniforms for the 2012 season, a classic look that garners league wide recognition.

Lowlight

Nov. 2: Despite the wishes of many, Johnny Mac re-signs with Arizona.  Many Jays fans expected him to come back to Toronto in the offseason and retire as a Jay. 

December

Highlight

Dec. 6: Toronto acquires closer Sergio Santos from the White Sox for pitching prospect Nestor Molina.  Santos was one of baseball’s best closers in 2011 and he gives the Jays something they have lacked for years – a true, shut-down 9th inning closer.

Lowlight

Dec. 19: With many industry experts predicting Toronto to win the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, fans are stunned and disappointed to learn that the Texas Rangers place the highest bid on the Japanese picthing sensation.  Toronto is left with nothing.

December 23, 2009 – Toronto Blue Jays acquire Brandon Morrow from the Seattle Mariners for Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez (minors)

It was two years ago.  Brandon for Brandon.  League for Morrow.  It was a trade that was rejoiced by Jays fans, the acquisition of a potentially dominant starter for a disappointing and inconsistent reliever.  It was also a trade that was similarly welcomed by Mariners fans, the acquisition of a potentially dominant reliever for a disappointing and inconsistent starter/closer/starter/closer. 

Now that two years have passed, do we have a better understanding of who won the deal?

In my opinion there are two ways that we can answer that question, statistically (by strictly looking at the numbers and on-field performance) and logically (by strictly looking at what each team got against what it hoped for).  I think, to this point, both methods point to Seattle.

The Numbers

2010 and 2011:

Morrow: 21 – 18, 4.62 ERA, 325.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9, 10.5 K/9, 2.82 K/BB

League: 10 – 12, 43 saves, 3.14 ERA, 140.1 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.73 K/BB

Obviously, since Morrow is a starting pitcher, he has far exceeded League in innings pitched.  But League has a far better ERA, much lower WHIP, and walks far fewer batters.  Yes Morrow strikes out substantially more hitters, but League looks to have an edge.

The Logic

The Jays acquired Morrow to develop into a top of the rotation starter, maybe a number two man behind Romero.  So far he has disappointed.  Injury, wildness, and inconsistency have plagued the right-hander in each of his two seasons in Toronto.  We’ve seen absolute dominance (his masterpiece in August 2010 vs. Tampa) and absolute junk (a clunker against KC in August 2011).  There is still a lot to be desired.

On the other hand, Seattle was acquiring a hard-throwing reliever, one who I’m sure the Mariners were hoping could be an effective set-up man.  However, an injury to closer David Aardsma opened the door for League to become the full-time 2011 closer, and he jumped at the opportunity, locking down 37 games with a sub-3.00 ERA and an All-Star nod. 

Advantage: League

So it’s a no-brainer then.  Juding purely by numbers, League has been better.  Judging purely by logic, League has been better.  Therefore Seattle wins the trade.

Except…

Not so fast.

Throw in the following on Morrow’s side, and re-evaluate:

- he had to adjust to being named a full time starter after being screwed around by Seattle in years past

- he was placed under an innings cap in both seasons to slowly stretch him out

- he pitches in the ridiculously tough AL East, negatively skewing his numbers in comparison

Add to that the fact that he is 2 years younger than League, and carries intrinsically more value by being a starter (200+ innings in a season) than a reliever (60-70 innings per year), and I think you’ll see that there is a lot of fight left in the Blue Jay.

In other words, League might very well be at the peak of his value now, while Morrow has a long way to go.

So yes, after two years I’ll give it to the Mariners by a nose, but check back next year.

I expect to see a huge smile on the face of Jays fans.

And so it ends…with a thud.

A resounding thud.

After days upon days of anticipation, of excitement, of idiots citing “industry sources” that said Toronto had won, the Texas Rangers swooped in and stole the Yu Darvish bidding rights from under our nose.

And again – Blue Jays fans are outraged.  Alex Anthopoulos is terrible for not bidding higher.  Paul Beeston is the worst for not pushing harder.  Rogers Communications is a terrible owner for not shelling out millions of dollars more for the right talk to a Japanese pitcher.  Our baseball team is doomed.   Our city sucks.  Life is over.

It’s enough to make a man sick.  Come on people.  How many MLB pitches has Yu Darvish thrown in his career?  Oh, that’s right – the exact same amount as Nestor Molina, the last player Toronto got rid of to the dismay of Jays fans. 

By the way, that number is zero.  0!

Don’t get me wrong.  I wanted to see Yu Darvish pitch for the Blue Jays.  I thought he might fit nicely behind Romero.  But to me, this is not a tragedy.  This is not the end of the world.  In a way, I’m actually happy that the Jays didn’t win the bid.  Here’s why:

$51-million for the posting fee + $75-million (or more) for the contract = $126-million. 

The last time I looked, that is a lot of money.

And again, the last time I looked Mr. Darvish has never pitched in a big league game. 

Essentially, the Rangers will be paying a 9-digit salary to a rookie pitcher. 

As baseball fans, we’ve seen time and time again Japanese pitchers not live up to expectations in the majors.  Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, and Kazuhisa Ishii come to mind as disappointments.  Hideo Nomo had two good years to start his MLB career, then promptly fell off a cliff.  Ditto for Daisuke Matsuzaka. 

Sure, there is a very good chance that Darvish breaks the mold and puts up a 5+ WAR for five or six seasons.  But there’s also just as likely a chance that he becomes the next Dice-K, with WARs of 3.2, 5.1, 0.3, 1.1, and -0.1 in his first five years. 

As a Jays fan, I’d much rather take the $125-million that it would take to sign Yu (yes, the posting fee counts towards the contract – let’s not kid ourselves), and use it towards somebody with a track record of MLB success, not a glorified rookie.

Isn’t there a guy by the name of Prince still available?

With the recent acquisition of Ben Francisco from the Phillies, the Blue Jays have a crowded outfield.  Fellow blogger The Blue Jay Hunter wrote an excellent piece on the outfield situation yesterday, and I highly encourage you all to go read it.  Now.  (But come back here after, please).

But apart from being a great article, it got me thinking and reminiscing, all at once.  It’s true the Jays have a crowded outfield, with Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames, Travis Snider, Ben Francisco, and Rajai Davis (and to a lesser extent Edwin Encarnacion, Mike McCoy, and Adam Lind) and only three positions.  In reality, there is really only one position, as Rasmus and Bautista are locks in CF and RF.

Interestingly enough, that is the way that it is has been in Toronto for a seemingly long time.  It has been many, many years since the Blue Jays have had a steady outfield.  Look at the history of starters on baseball reference to see what  I mean.  Vernon Wells was a fixture in CF for nine years, and Alex Rios beside him for six of those.   But LF was always up for grabs.  Adam Lind played there, Frank Catalanotto, Reed Johnson, Shannon Stewart.  The outfield wasn’t one synchronized unit.

Even in the World Series years, and the years just afterwards, the same could be said.  Sure Joe Carter and Devon White were locks, but they were joined by Candy Maldonado, Rickey Henderson, Mike Huff (who?), and Shawn Green.  No cohesiveness.

You have to go all the way back to 1985 to see the last time the Jays had a steady outfield.  And what an outfield it was, probably my favourite in Blue Jays history.  For four straight years, George Bell, Lloyd Moseby, and Jesse Barfield roamed the turf at Exhibition Stadium, meaning that for four straight winters Blue Jays fans didn’t have to worry / speculate / hope / wish that the front office would bring together three worthy outfielders.  Those were good days.

But what made them good, apart from the stability, was the fact that each of those guys was productive.  There wasn’t a bust in the bunch.  If you throw out 1988, which was a bad season full of poor play and injuries, the Big 3 were outstanding.  The average season for each of Bell, Barfield, and Moseby for the years 1985 – 1987 looked like this:

Barfield: .280 average, .356 OBP, .873 OPS, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 97 R, 11 SB, 6.17 WAR

Bell: .298 average, .343 OBP, .882 OPS, 35 HR, 112 RBI, 100 R, 11 SB, 4.17 WAR

Moseby: .265 average, .344 OBP, .783 OPS, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 96 R, 36 SB, 2.8 WAR

The three also added awards and honours as well:

Barfield: Two Top-7 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and an All-Star nod

Bell: Three Top-8 MVP finishes including winning the 1987 AL MVP, three Silver Sluggers, and an All-Star nod

Moseby: 1986 All-Star

The total WAR provided by those three outfielders in each of those years was also pretty handsome: 13.2 in 1985, and 13.1 in both 1986 and 1987.   For reference sake, the total WAR by the top players (by number of games played) in Toronto’s OF in each of the past three seasons look like this:

2011: Total = 8.4 (Jose Bautista 8.5, Eric Thames 0.8, Rajai Davis -0.9)

2010: Total = 10.0 (Jose Bautista 5.4, Vernon Wells 4.0, Fred Lewis 0.6)

2009: Total = -1.2 (yes, negative!) (Travis Snider 0.0, Vernon Wells 0.3, Alex Rios -1.5)

So you can understand a Jays fans longing for the days of yesteryear.

Oh – there’s one other thing that the Big 3 of Barfield, Bell and Moseby provided in the ’80′s.

A division title in 1985.

Bautista, Rasmus, and Future LF?  You’re next.

The 2011 Winter Meetings are over.  Three days of tumult, chaos, and rumours galore have come to an end.  Most people survived, though some turned a bit insane (see the Angels of Anaheim – 10 years for Pujols?).

Now that many of the big names are off the table, it’s time to sit back and take a look at who’s still out there.  Peruse the scraps, if you will.  Alex Anthopoulos has gone on record saying that he would still like to add a “middle of the order bat, mid-rotation starter, and an 8th inning guy”.  He has also made it abundantly clear that trades are his preferred method.  But just for fun, let’s take a look at the remaining free agents and see if maybe, just maybe, any of them can work for Toronto.

Hitters

Baseball Reference lists 198 remaining free agent batters.  Obviously, the Jays will have little interest in most of these names, so let’s make a few cuts.

Gone are the catchers, as the trade for slugger Jeff Mathis makes a backup catcher unnecessary.  That eliminates 36 names, such as Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada, and our favourite Robinzon Diaz (or “He Who Got Us Jose Bautista”).

I’m making a decision and cutting anybody who is 36 and older.  While many of these guys might be able to hit still, I think as Jays fans we’ve had our fill of the “veteran slugger with diminishing skills” with the disaster that was Frank Thomas.  That gets rid of 23 more, including Omar Vizquel, Hideki Matsui, Magglio Ordonez, and Vladimir Guerrero.

If we’re looking for a potential middle of the order bat, I think we can forget about players with a career WAR of less than 1- they won’t make any difference what-so-ever.  That cuts 83 (!) off the list, including such notables as Reggie Willits, Hector Luna, and Ronny Cedeno.

Next, let’s get rid of players who used to play for the Jays.  We don’t want any repeat failures, so gone are Lyle Overbay, Felipe Lopez, Reed Johnson, Corey Patterson, Bobby Kielty, Fred Lewis, Cesar Izturis, and Jeremy Reed.

Finally, let’s cut the four guys who will be too expensive and not in Toronto’s plans: Carlos Beltran, Jimmy Rollins, Aramis Ramirez, and (sadly) Prince Fielder.

What do we have left?  Unfortunately a very sad list if 44 players that leaves a lot to be desired.  There is a mixture of guys who were top prospects but never panned out (Wilson Betemit, Felix Pie, Angel Berroa), veterans looking for another couple of years before they ride off in the sunset (Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez, Pat Burrell, Edgar Renteria, Juan Pierre), and role players who won’t do much other than provide pinch-hit heroics once in a while (Casey Kotchman, Dan Johnson, Conor Jackson).

There are a few intriguing names on the list, but most come with issues of their own.  Josh Willingham is a nice power hitter, but is looking for an expensive multi-year deal.  Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are in the same boat, and more likely to re-sign with the Twins anyways.  Kevin Kouzmanoff has some pop but mainly plays 3B.  Nick Johnson can barely walk anymore.  Carlos Pena can still hit homers and get on base, but can’t hit above .230 and will likely be looking for a huge payday. 

So who’s the best target still out there?  I don’t think there is one, but if I had to choose, maybe Ryan Ludwick.  He is 33 years old and coming off a terrible season, but is only a few years removed from some productive seasons (37 HR in 2008).  He might come fairly inexpensive, and could provide some pop from the outfield.  But of course, that means taking away playing time from Thames/Snider.

Final Vote: Nobody

Pitchers

Let’s do the same thing for pitchers.  Again using  Baseball Reference, we see a total of 172 remaining free agents.  

First we cut the closers as the trade for Sergio Santos fills that need.  Francisco Cordero, Jason Isringhausen (he still counts as a closer to me), Francisco Rodriguez, Brad Lidge, and Ryan Madson are gone. 

In the age category, let’s make 40 our magic number, as there are still a number of effective late 30′s relievers.  That takes care of Tim Wakefield, Takashi Saito, Arthur Rhodes, Miguel Batista, and Darren Oliver.

Using the same logic as the hitters, let’s go ahead and scrap players with a career WAR of less than 1.  This removes 95 names from the list, big time names such as Justin Lehr, Jason Bergmann, and Garrett Olson. 

Finally, let’s copy the hitters list and get rid of ex-Jays.  Though it’s entirely possible that AA might bring one of these guys back, I don’t want them.  So long Dave Bush, Gustavo Chacin, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, Trever Miller, and Vinnie Chulk.

That leaves 61 players on our list, and like the hitters list, there isn’t a lot that jumps out.  There are some bigger names that don’t really fit what the Jays want to do (Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Bartolo Colon, Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, Kerry Wood), and there are some guys just trying to hang on (Vincente Padilla, Oliver Perez, Brett Tomko, Dontrelle Willis).  Edwin Jackson could be intriguing but I question whether he’ll ever put it together.  Plus he technically was a Jay for a few hours last summer.

I don’t really see a mid-rotation starter out there, unless you want to take a flier on injury-prone Canadian Rich Harden.  Maybe not asking him to be top-2 starter would benefit him.  In the bullpen, a guy like George Sherrill could be worth a look as a LOOGY type player.  He held lefties to a .608 OPS last year, and allowed only one walk to a left-handed hitter – while striking out 32 of them.  As far as an 8th inning guy?  He’s often hurt and might be a bit of a wild card, but Joel Zumaya is on the list.  This is the guy who used to blow past 100-MPH, and if he can stay healthy might be a good set-up man.

Again, the choices are thin but if forced I would take Harden, Zumaya, and Sherrill.

And that my friends is why I should not be a GM.

And that my friends, is also why we should believe and trust in AA. He will not sign a player if the right player isn’t there.