Great game at the ol’ Dome last night, my first of the season, and my first using the new Jays Fan Pass.  Other than a few glitches (multiple swipes to get it to register, and the fact that my dad’s card was de-magnetized forcing him to go to customer service) the group got in and settled by the second inning.

With 500 Level Fan’s favourite man Edwin Encarncion leading the way, the Jays pounded Boston 7-3 to move back over the .500 mark.  Kyle Drabek pitched very well (5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 ER, 4 K), and EE, Escobar, Lind, and Lawrie each had a pair of hits.  The only troubling signs came from Colby Rasmus, who continues to struggle and is now hitting .095, and Jose Bautista, who had a hat-trick of strikeouts and is now 1 for his past 16.

But hey, a win’s a win.  We’ll take it.

As we settled into our seats a quick look around showed us a pretty Jays friendly section.  A lot of younger people, a lot of jerseys, and a ton of new caps were everywhere. 

But then we see a genuine celebrity, and there was no doubt who the 500 Level Fan of the Game would be.

Everybody has heard of Friar Tuck.  You may be aware of NY Giants defensive player Justin Tuck.  Some of you might even know FTC – Fully Tucked Chuck.

But have you ever in your life seen this man?

Here he is – Terrible Tuck.

That is a deep, agressive tuck.  Incredible.  Congrats TT on being 500 Level Fan’s first Fan of the Game for 2012.

For those of you who want to jump out of a building after yesterday’s tough loss, for those of you who want to crucify Sergio Santos after blowing the save to the hated Red Sox, and for those of you who are ready to write off 2012 as another lost season, I beg you to please read on.

The following items are cold, hard, and sad facts:

1. Our new closer, the man who was going to shore up the bullpen, is 0 / 2 in save opportunities, has an ERA of 15.43, a WHIP of 3.00, has allowed 4 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks with only 1 strikeout in 2.1 IP.  He’s also thrown a wild pitch. 

Should this be cause for concern?

No. 

Why? Because friends…it’s early.

2. Last year the Jays blew 25 saves.  This year they have already blown 2, meaning they have already reached 8% of last year’s total in only 2.47% of the schedule.

Should this be cause for concern?

No.  Why?  Because friends…it’s early.

3. The Blue Jays have played 46 innings (the equivalent of just over 5 games) and have only scored 19 runs.  They only have 32 hits, have only drawn 16 walks, and have 39 strikeouts.  They have only managed to score in 9 innings (19.5% of innings played), and have only plated multiple runs in 6 innings (13% of innings played).

Of the starting nine, only Kelly Johnson has a batting average above .300.  Five of the nine are currently below the Mendoza line.  The Jays have hit only three HR as a team.  Only two starters have an OPS above .650.  Since Opening Day, Jose Bautista is 1 for 12 with 2 BB, 0 RBI, and 0 runs scored.

Should this be cause for concern?

No, because again…it’s early.

Do I wish that Santos would have nailed down that win last night?  Of course.  The Jays could easily be 3-1 right now, with a three game lead on Boston. 

But do me favour:  step back and answer this question.

If I would have told you last week, that our closer would blow two saves, our ace would be roughed up early in the season opener, our offense would be sputtering to the point where a 36-year old reliever named Scott Atchison with a career ERA of over 4 completely shut us down for three innings, and the second best OPS on the team belongs to Jeff Mathis, would you have taken a 2-2 start to the season?

Thought so.

Relax friends.

It’s early.

Things will get better.

Santos will be fine – that’s a 500 Level Fan guarantee!

When I was a kid I was addicted to a game called Hockey League Simulator.  It was a game that allowed you to control a hockey team, everything from drafting and acquiring players, to setting lines, to managing the minor league system.  Since you didn’t actually play the games it was possible to play an entire season in a short period of time.  I would play that game for hours and hours, trying to put together a good enough package to acquire Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux.  It was awesome.

Fast forward about 15 years to present day and you’ll find me obsessed with a new simulation game, one much more advanced and with an incredible amount of detail.  When I was first contacted by Out of the Park Developments and asked if I was interested in testing out OOTP ’13, I had no idea what I was in store for.  I had never played any prior version of OOTP Baseball, so I was simply expecting a game that gave me a chance to manage a team, make some trades, and watch how my moves played out in a simulated season.

I was wrong.  Incredibly wrong.

OOTP ’13 is an unbelievable simulation game with a ridiculous amount of detail.  I’ve been playing it for a few weeks and have barely even scratched the surface of what is available. 

The game comes equipped with all of 2012′s rule changes – including the second wild card, full 2012 rosterrs, and also includes the Houston Astros move to the AL West in 2013.  But if you don’t want to play this year’s season, don’t worry about it.  You can play ANY season EVER.  Want to see if you can manage the 1985 Blue Jays to the World Series?  Go for it.   Think you can avoid Toronto’s collapse in ’87?  Give it a shot.  The game has it all.

And as I said, the level of detail is incredible.  It includes the entire minor leagues.  There are detailed injury reports, weekly power rankings, news articles, contract negotiations, and of course tons and tons of statistics.  As a GM, you have the option of starting out unemployed and hoping to catch on somewhere, or you can start with a job in A-ball and try to work your way up.  Or, if you can handle it, jump right into the big leagues at the helm of your favourite team.  That’s what I tried to do – and I failed.  Miserably.  I used to think I could handle being a major league GM.  Now I highly, highly doubt it.

While so many things are possible in this game, by far my favourite thing to do is simply sit back and simulate a season.  In my first crack at simming the 2012 season, the Jays made it the playoffs as the second Wild Card before losing to the Angels.  The LF question was also solved as Toronto traded Eric Thames to the Angels for a prospect.  The traded turned out to be a blessing for LA, as Thames lead all of baseball with 134 RBI’s in 2013!

Overall, I give OOTP ’13 a 10 out of 10.  Everything you’d ever want in a simulation is here, plus a whole lot more.  If there is anything to complain about it would be this: the game predicted a Boston Red Sox World Series title this year. 

As a Jays fan, that is something I can’t endorse.

But as a game, I highly recommend it.  You won’t be disappointed.

To download a copy of the game, visit ootpdevelopments.com.

It's been a tough start for Colby (from daylife.com)

The 2012 season is underway, and the start of the season has proven to be epic for the Blue Jays.  A record setting Opening Day game went 16-innings, and was followed up by another extra inning game on Saturday.  Though a tough loss on Sunday ruined the chances at a sweep, the 2-1 start has the team headed in the right direction as they return home for tonight’s home opener.

Here are three things from week 1:

Week 1: April 5 – April 8

Record: 2 – 1

1. Slow Starts

Yes Toronto is off to a 2-1 start.  Yes they have scored 17 runs in three games.  But there is some cause for concern in that in each of the three games the Jays have gotten off to incredibly slow starts.  Through the fiirst six innings of each, Toronto has managed to score only three runs on only six hits.  As a team the Jays have taken just a single walk and have struck out 11 times.  They have also trailed by more than one run in all three games: 4-1 on Thursday, 2-0 on Saturday, and 4-2 on Sunday. 

Though they managed to come back and win two of those games, this is a trend that the Jays do not want to continue. 

2. Ice Cold Colby

I have a lot of faith in Colby Rasmus.  I think he will have a bounce-back season with solid production.  But there are a lot of people out there who don’t believe in him – I have a friend who has guaranteed Rasmus will finish the season batting under the Mendoza line.  While his defence has been outstanding thus far, Colby isn’t doing himself any favours in terms of silencing his critics.  Through three games he has looked awful at the plate.

Batting in the nine hole, Rasmus has gotten off to a .067 start, with a measly .192 OPS.  That translates into one hit in 15 at bats, with only one walk and two strikeouts.  It’s obviously incredibly early and there’s no reason to panic just yet, but a slow start for the seemingly fragile Rasmus was probably the worst thing that could have happened for his confidence. 

But don’t worry friends – I still have faith.

3. Bullpen Brilliance

After suffering through an unbelievably bad 2011, Toronto fans expected much improvement from the bullpen in 2012.  The acquisitions of Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, and Sergio Santos, the re-acquisition of Jason Frasor, and the return to health of Carlos Villanueva gave hope that the Achilles Heel from last year might possibly be a strength this year. 

Well, so far so good. 

Though the ‘pen is walking a few too many batters to be completely happy (10 so far) and Santos did have a blip on Saturday by blowing the save, they have been lights out thus far.  18 innings pitched, only 2 ER allowed, and 12 strikeouts.  That equates to a 1.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.  The bullpen was incredible in Thursday’s opener, tossing 11 scoreless innings and thwarting the Indians several times when it looked like they were about to steal a win. 

Last year I grew incredibly nervous each time John Farrell pointed to the ‘pen, but so far this year it’s the opposite.

Opening Day is here….and it is glorious.

Not since my days as a kid have I been this excited about a Blue Jays season.  And for the first time in quite a while, many baseball experts are just as excited as I am.  Both Jayson Stark of ESPN and Scott Miller of CBS Sports pick Toronto to take advantage of the second Wild Card and make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.  Amazing.

But you can read about those predictions, and others, elsewhere.

Here, you will get the terrible predictions of a buffoon.  But if there’s one thing going for me it’s this: I can’t get any worse than last year.

Today 500 Level Fan wraps up the set of season prediction columns with a look at the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays.

Here are 24 predictions about Toronto’s upcoming season.  Some are standard and some are off-the-wall, bet we can all rest assured on one thing – MOST will be wrong.

1. Toronto will win 87 games and finish ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East.  The Wild Card might be a stretch, but they’ll be close.

2. Jose Bautista will once again eclipse the 50 HR mark, finishing with 51.

3. Colby Rasmus has the kind of breakout year that was projected for him years ago, finishing with a .280+ average, 25 HR, and a high .800’s OPS.

4. Yunel Escobar wins the Gold Glove for AL SS.

5. 500 Level Fan’s favourite Edwin Encarnacion hits over 30 HR and moves into the cleanup role behind Bautista by May.

6. Brandon Morrow leads the league in strikeouts, stays healthy, and stays consistent, finishing the season as one of the top pitchers in the AL.

7. Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez stay firmly entrenched in the rotation, but the final two spots remain in turmoil until rookie Drew Hutchinson is called up in July and brings stability to the back end.

8. Rajai Davis becomes a surprisingly effective bench player.

9. Ben Francisco does not.

10. The bullpen, Toronto’s Achilles heel in 2011, is vastly improved, and finished with the best ERA in the entire American League.

11. Sergio Santos finishes second in the AL in saves, and first in K/9 for relievers.

12. By the end of the season, Jessie Litsch, Adam Lind, and Travis Snider are no longer members of the Toronto Blue Jays organization.

13. Ricky Romero wins 20 games.

14. Omar Vizquel, in an incredible performance, hits for the cycle – the home run will be his only bomb of the season.

15. Brett Lawrie continues where he left off last season, and is elected as a starter for the AL in the All-Star game.

16. As a reliever, Casey Janssen puts together a scoreless innings streak of 29.

17. With Philadelphia in town again (from June 15-17), Jose Bautista repeats 2011 by launching a massive HR off Roy Halladay.  Unlike last year, the Blue Jays actually win the game.

18. The Jays continue their dominance over the Orioles by posting a 16-2 record against them.

19. Alex Anthopoulos makes a daring trade in July finally parting with one of Toronto’s blue chip prospects for a bona fide major league star.

20. Henderson Alvarez throws a one-hit shutout – twice.

21. Travis d’Arnaud makes an appearance in the big leagues before the season is finished.  Other top prospects, including Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick, do not.

22. Of the three major additions to the AL, Toronto shuts down Prince Fielder, knocks around Yu Darvish, but has a tough time with Albert Pujols – as does the rest of the American League.

23.  Eric Thames survives the entire season in LF and has a nice all-around season.  His highlight comes in August when he puts together a 15-game hitting streak and has a 3-HR game.

24. Toronto’s second last series of the season, a 4-game home set against the Yankees, is the biggest September series since the early ‘90’s, with the AL’s second Wild Card birth at stake.  All four games are sold out.

Happy 2012 everybody!

Although Opening Day of the 2012 Major League Baseball season has technically already happened (they love Ichiro in Japan don’t they?) for most of us Opening Day is just around the corner.  Fresh off the 2011 World Series, the Pujols-less St. Louis Cardinals face the brand new Miami Marlins in brand new Marlins Park tomorrow night at 7 PM, and with that the 2012 season will be off and running.

Over the past week and a half, 500 Level Fan has posted a preview of each of MLB’s six divisions.  Now, with Opening Day right upon us, it’s time to up the ante.  No more “previewing”.  It’s now time to “predict”.  

As always, my predictions should not be wagered upon by anybody, because they will likely all be wrong. 

Like last year, the 500 Level Fan predictions column will split over two days.  Today I’m going to cover MLB predictions, including final standings, playoff results, award winners, and some miscellaneous categories.  Tomorrow I’ll put my focus on the Blue Jays, with some individual and team predictions. 

So sit back, read on, try not to laugh, and get ready to comment. 

American League Predictions

East

1. Tampa Bay

2. New York

3. Toronto

4. Boston

5. Baltimore

Thoughts: A full year of Matt Moore, bringing back a 1B with power (Carlos Pena), and a bounce back year from Evan Longoria (no way he hits in the .240′s again) make Tampa the favourite.  Nervous about Farnsworth at closer, but he proved he could handle it last year…..The Yankees are getting older, and Curtis Granderson is a huge regression candidate.  I don’t think Pineda will adjust well to the AL East either…..Why can’t Toronto finish ahead of Boston?  They have the talent, just need the pitching to come together…..Speaking of pitching, the Red Sox only seem to have three starters, and their closer might need thumb surgery.  Plus, Carl Crawford proved in 2011 that he stinks…..Baltimore might be finally moving in the right direction, but for now they are still terrible.  They might lose 100 games.

Central

1. Detroit

2. Cleveland

3. Kansas City

4. Minnesota

5. Chicago

Thoughts: Detroit dominated this division last year, and now add Prince Fielder.  But moving Cabrera to third is dangerous, and there is a very real chance that Verlander and Avila regress a bit.  They still win but it might be closer than you think…..Cleveland surprised many last year but bring a team full of question marks into 2012.  Can they hit?  Will Ubaldo bounce back?  Can Masterson repeat 2011?  I think they push the Tigers, for a few months anyways…..Kansas City is a year away, but have all kinds of good pieces in place to challenge for a .500 finish…..Mauer and Morneau both bounce back a bit, but not enough for Minny to challenge for the playoffs…..Dunn, Rios, and Beckham can’t possibly get worse, so there’s that. 

West

1. Texas

2. Anaheim

3. Seattle

4. Oakland

Thoughts: The Rangers add two new starters (Yu Darvish and 2011 closer Neftali Feliz) and a new closer (Joe Nathan), but how deeply will falling one strike short of the championship last year impact them?  I say they still have enough to hold off the Angels…..The story of the winter, LA has quite possibly the best rotation in the majors, and Albert Pujols.  But they still have Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu…..Seattle can’t possibly have a worse offense than last year can they?  With full seasons from Ackley, Montero, Carp (though he’s on the DL), and Smoak, plus a bounce back year from Ichiro, I say no…..Oakland has no chance, but with Cespedes and (maybe) Manny, they’ll at least be fun to watch on SportsCentre.  

Wildcards

Yankees and Angels – the Jays could sneak in here, but I think they are one year away.

Stat Leaders

HR – Jose Bautista, TOR – he might eclipse 50 again

RBI – Miguel Cabrera, DET

Average – Albert Pujols, LAA

SB – Brett Gardner, NYY

Wins – CC Sabathia, NYY

ERA – Dan Haren, LAA

K – Brandon Morrow, TOR

Sv – Joe Nathan, TEX

Awards & Miscellany

MVP – Miguel Cabrera, DET

Cy Young – Dan Haren, LAA

Rookie – Matt Moore, TB

Manager – John Farrell, TOR

Bounceback Player – Colby Rasmus, TOR

Most Disappointing Player – Josh Beckett, BOS

First Major Player Traded – Nick Markakis, BAL

National League Predictions

East

1. Philadelphia

2. Miami

3. Atlanta

4. Washington

5. N.Y. Mets

Thoughts: Despite injury problems with Howard and Utley, Philadelphia – though aging – is still the premier team in the division . Their 1-3 starters are second to none…..Expect big years from Stanton, Ramirez, and Reyes, and a complete disaster from Carlos Zambrano.  Still good enough for second…..Atlanta has great pitching but there is suddenly some injury concern with the rotation.  Heyward must bounce back…..Washington will be fun, but 2013 is their year…..Now that the off-field distractions appear to be over, maybe the Mets will surprise us.  Probably not though.

Central

1. Cincinnati

2. St. Louis

3. Milwaukee

4. Pittsburgh

5. Chicago

6. Houston

Thoughts: Extending Votto calms fears of his imminent departure and gets the focus back on the field.  Latos gives them a quality top of the rotation starter, and Aroldis Chapman gives them the biggest X-factor in the division, enough to take them to the top…..Nothing offsets the loss of Albert Pujols, but adding Beltran to Berkman and Holliday, and bringing Wainwright back from Tommy John will keep the team competitive…..Adding Aramis Ramirez does not make up for a suddenly fragile Marcum, the loss of Fielder, and a full season of Braun drama…..Is this the year that Pittsburgh finally finishes .500?  500 Level Fan says………YES!!!!…..When the biggest name on your team is your GM, you know you’re in trouble.  Sorry Cubbies…..Houston will be historically awful.  I almost feel bad for them.

West

1. San Francisco

2. Arizona

3. Colorado

4. Los Angeles

5. San Diego

Thoughts: I’m assuming the Giants finally smarten up and give at-bats to Brandon Belt. That plus the return of Posey and a lights-out pitching staff puts San Fran back in the playoffs…..Arizona played a bit over their heads last year, but have improved the rotation and still have MVP candidate Justin Upton.  It will be close…..Colorado will be fun to watch if only for 49-year old Jamie Moyer making the starting rotation.  A great story…..New ownership will not bring on-field success, not even with Kemp and Kershaw – at least not this year…..San Diego has some exciting pieces.  Interested to see how many bombs Yonder Alonso hits in Petco Park.  

Wildcards

Miami and St. Louis

Stat Leaders

HR – Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

RBI – Joey Votto, CIN

Average – Joey Votto, CIN

SB – Michael Bourn, ATL

Wins – Roy Halladay, PHI

ERA – Cole Hamels, PHI

K – Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Sv – Brian Wilson, SF

Awards

MVP - Joey Votto, CIN

Cy Young – Roy Halladay, PHI

Rookie – Yonder Alonso, SD

Manager – Charlie Manuel, PHI

Bounceback Player – Buster Posey, SF

Most Disappointing Player – Lance Berkman, STL

First Major Player Traded – David Wright, NYM

Playoffs 

American League

Wildcard Round – Angels over Yankees

ALDS – Rays over Angels, Rangers over Tigers

ALCS – Rangers over Rays

National League

Wild Card Round – Cardinals over Marlins

NLDS – Phillies over Cardinals, Giants over Reds

NLCS – Phillies over Giants

World Series

I picked Philadelphia last year and got burned.  This year they look to be a much weaker team loaded with injury problems.  Yet, for some reason (probably sentimentality for Halladay) I feel like the rotation will refuse to lose in 2012.  Philadlephia wins the World Series, handing the Rangers their third straight series loss.

Fantasy baseball draft cheat sheets?

Throw ‘em away.

All your research on position scarcity?

Don’t need it.

Projections, sleepers, busts, and breakout players?

Burn ‘em.

If you are a hardcore fantasy baseball fan, stay away.  This is not the draft for you.

But if you are a man who enjoys heavy drinking, chicken wings, disgusting shots, and watching a tiny computer screen automatically select baseball players for your team, then get ready.  Buckle up.

Tomorrow brings with it one of the greatest days on the baseball calendar – the 5th annual PEGS fantasy baseball league auto draft.

What makes this league so unique from others?  Why is this league, the one that I play in each year that requires no draft strategy, my ultimate favourite?  Please, join me in the ultimate guide to the auto draft to find out.

The History

It all started in 2008 when a group of 10 friends decided to set up a fantasy baseball league.  The draft was set for 5 pm on a Wednesday.  Each member of the league planned to stay in the office late in order to draft from work.  Unfortunately, it turned out that the majority of the league was blocked from running Java, meaning they couldn’t access Yahoo’s live draft.

So, instead of drafting, the members of the league convened at a pub and drank multiple pitchers of beer, logged into a laptop, and watched as Yahoo automatically filled our rosters.  The amount of fun, joy, and hilarity that ensued was unexpected, but amazing.

The auto draft was born.

The Draft

From that point on, it was decided that the league would continue each year, and the auto draft would continue as well.  In order to keep the draft standard each year, the following rules were established:

- Only one member of the league is allowed to log in, and only one laptop can be used

- No member of the league is allowed to alter his pre-draft rankings.  Doing so results in his execution (figuratively).

- Every pick must be made by the Yahoo auto draft system.

- The draft must take place at a pub.  Every member of the league must either be there in person, or at least be there in spirit (via text).

- Each member of the league who is at the bar must drink a least three beers, though the commissioner (me) would prefer to see everybody have at least twelve.

The League

Believe it or not, it takes some very shrewd managing to win the league.  Since all teams are essentially random, the GM who makes the best free agent pickups and trades will rise to the top. 

In addition, the man who comes in last place faces one of two punishments:

1. He must purchase a round of rye shots for the entire league at the next year’s draft, or

2. He is ruthlessly cut from the league, tarred and feathered and paraded through the streets.

Sadly, last season’s ultimate loser picked up and moved to Vancouver, so forcing him to do six consecutive shots is impossible.

The Penalty Shots

Before the draft the league nominates several players, debates them, and ultimately confirms a final list.  Whenever any of those pre-determined players are drafted, the owner who is stuck with that player must drink a pre-determined shot.  In 2011, there were a total of six penalty shots.  In 2012, because we are cruel, we expanded the list to nine.  This year the penalty shot list is as follows:

Jeff Francoeur

Coco Crisp

Jonathan “The Self Cleaning Anus” Papelbon

Nick Swisher

Yu Darvish

Yoenis Cespedes

Nyjer Morgan

Edwin Encarnacion

Kevin Youkilis

The list of potential shots is endless, but will definitely include Rye, Jack Daniels, Tequila, Captain Morgan, Jagermeister, Goldschlager, Hawaiian Lion, and a Bear Fight (made of an Irish Car Bomb immediately followed by a Jagr bomb, as shown below).  Good luck gents.

The Trades

As mentioned, it is important to be active in the trade market to win this league.  Trading, especially at the draft, and especially before the draft is over, is highly encouraged.

Each year at least one trade has been made during the draft, and we can already confirm one trade this year: Honey Nut Ichiros and Game of Rules have agreed to swap their respective 24th round selections.  For the sake of the draft, one can only hope that one of the penalty shot players is involved.

The Final Words

Tomorrow’s draft takes place at Gabby’s on King East in Toronto.  The fun gets going at 6:30. 

Who will be this year’s champion and join this exclusive list?

2008 – The Forward Claps

2009 – ionionionionionion

2010 – Bear Fights

2011 – The Five Holers

We’ll find out soon enough.

To all my competitors in the league – get ready.  It’s time.

It’s been the best division in baseball for years.  It is home to the biggest spending teams in the game, and one of the most well run teams as well.  It is also home to one of baseball’s biggest sleeping giants, our beloved Blue Jays.  Oh, and Baltimore plays here too.

Today 500 Level Fan concludes the 2012 Divisional preview series with a look at the big, bad AL East.

Defending Champion

New York Yankees

Past Five Champions

2011 – New York

2010 – Tampa Bay

2009 – New York

2008 – Tampa Bay

2007 – Boston

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 97.8

Best Player

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

You can call me a biased homer, you can point out other superstars that play here, but for my money Jose Bautista is the best player in the AL East.  He lead the league in HR (43), Walks (132), Slugging (.608), OPS (1.056), OPS+ (181), Intentional Walks (24), and WAR (8.1).  He went from a one-dimensional home run hitter in 2010, to an all around threat in 2011, raising his batting average 42 points, and his OBP 69 points.  He is a smart base runner, plays two positiions well, and is a true clubhouse leader.  He is poised to finally lead Toronto back to the postseason.  

Honourable Mention: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox; Robinson Cano, Yankees

Best Pitcher

CC Sabathia, Yankees

How can it be anybody else?  While other pitchers in the division have been dominant for stretches (Beckett, Buchholz, Price, Shields, Romero), nobody can match the consistency of Sabathia.  In 2011 he went 19-8 with a 3.00 ERA and an 8.7 K/9 ratio.  Since joining New York, the lefty has gone an incredible 59-23, 624 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9, all while pitching in a hitters park in baseball’s toughest division.  He is good, and at 31 years of age, he likely has many, many years left.

Honourable Mention: David Price, Rays; Jon Lester, Red Sox

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Is This the Year for Toronto?

1993.  19 years ago.  A lot has happened in 19 years, but there is one thing that hasn’t – a Blue Jays playoff game.  The team has been close a few times, but has always fallen short of the postseason.  Despite having great players (Delgado, Halladay, Clemens, etc.) the Jays have not been able to get over the hump.  This year could be different.  Toronto has a stocked minor league system.  They have young, talented players at every position.  They have a rebuilt bullpen.  And, for the first time, there is an extra Wild Card spot available.  The task is still daunting, what with Tampa, Boston, and New York still ahead of them, but for the first time in many years, the Jays can see paydirt.  2012 could be the year they finally cross that playoff threshold.   

2. Boston’s Recovery

The last time we saw Boston on the field, they were concluding an incredible September collapse.  On the morning of September 1st, Boston was in 1st place in the AL East, 1.5 games up on the Yankees, and 9 up on Tampa.  On the morning of September 28th, they were 7 back of New York, and tied with Tampa.  Of course, they would go on to blow a 9th inning lead against Baltimore and be eliminated.  And that was just the beginning.  Fried chicken, beer drinking in the clubhouse, off-field power struggles…the Red Sox were a team out of control.  Now in 2012, there is a new manager, a new GM, and a whole lot of unanswered questions.  What will happen this year is anybody’s guess.

3. The Aging Empire

By the All Star break this summer, Derek Jeter will be 38.  Alex Rodriguez will be weeks away from his 37th birthday.  Mark Teixeira will be 32 (but he’s been playing like he’s 42).  Mariano Rivera will be 42.  In other words, several key members of the defending AL East champs are old.  Yes they have Cano, Granderson, and Gardner in their prime years, and some key pitchers who are young (Pineda, Nova, Robertson), but will the advanced age of the rest of the team finally catch up to the Yankees and keep them out of October?

Interesting Stat

The Baltimore Orioles have not had a winning record since 1997.  The biggest reason why?  Starting pitching.  The Oriole starters have been bad.  Very bad.  Since 2005, Baltimore starters have posted five of the eleven worst starting pitching ERA’s in the American League.  In 2011, the Orioles starters posted a ghastly 5.31 ERA.  The second worst staring pitching ERA last year belonged to Minnesota, over a third of a run lower at 4.96.  The rest of the starting pitching stats are just as bad.  Wins: tied for last with 46.  Losses: second last with 72.  Quality Starts: dead last, by a mile, with 60.  IP per start: dead last with 5.4.  In all, 12 different pitchers started at least one game for Baltimore last season, and the very best ERA posted by any of them belonged to Jeremy Guthrie at 4.37 – and he now plays for the Rockies.  It’s obvious to see what needs to change in Baltimore.

Who Should Win

New York. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

On paper, it looks like the least competitive division in baseball.  After all you have the defending champions, who happen to have the defending AL MVP and Cy Young winner AND added a huge slugger in the offseason, going against a team that played over its head last year (Cleveland), a team that looks to be at least a year away (Kansas City), a team in complete turmoil (Chicago), and a team that almost lost 100 games last year (Minnesota).  It’s Detroit’s division to lose.

But, as they say, that’s why you play the games.

Today we take a look at the AL Central.

Defending Champion

Detroit Tigers

Past Five Champions

2011 – Detroit

2010 – Minnesota

2009 – Minnesota

2008 – Chicago

2007 – Cleveland

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 92.4

Best Player

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Yes he will be changing positions (and hasn’t looked great at it thus far, considering the ol’ “ball off the face” trick), but there’s no denying that Cabrera is the beast of the Central.  For two straight years he has posted a WAR of 7.0 or better.  For five straight years he has hit 30+ HR and driven in 100+ runs.  In all four years that he has been a member of the Tigers he has finished in the top-15 of AL MVP voting.  Now that he is teaming with Prince Fielder?  Look out…  

Honourable Mention: Prince Fielder, Tigers; Joe Mauer, Twins

Best Pitcher

Justin Verlander, Tigers

Verlander put together a season for the ages in 2011, going 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, 250 strikeouts, a 0.92 WHIP, and a no-hitter.  He won both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards, the first pitcher to win both since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.  Though he is ripe for some regression this season, there’s no denying that he is the best pitcher in this division.  With an even better lineup behind him, could we be looking at a 30-win candidate?

Honourable Mention: Doug Fister, Tigers; Justin Masterson, Indians

Three Storylines For 2012

1. What Can Verlander Do For an Encore?

As mentioned, Verlander dominated in 2011.  This season, he is playing on what might be a stronger Tiger team, with the addition of Fielder, and in one of baseball’s weakest divisions.  All signs point to another MVP quality year?  Well, not so fast.  The big issue is this: Verlander threw 251 innings last year, then added another 20.1 in the playoffs.  He threw 3,941 regular season pitches, an average of 116 per start.  Those are crazy numbers.  Will his arm break down?  

2. Fielder and Cabrera

What do you get when you put Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the same lineup?  Most likely a ton of runs and a huge power barrage.  What do you get when you put Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the same infield?  Most likely a lot of trouble.  Never, at least as far back as I can remember, will infield defense come under as much scrutiny as it will with Detroit.  A few extra groundballs that get through and a few additional errors could be result in a few additional losses.  That might bring the Tigers back to the pack.

3. Return of the Twins

The Minnesota Twins were a perennial contender until imploding into a 99-loss team in ’11.  Injuries derailed the team right from the start, and though a variety of players went down, none were more important than the MVP duo of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.  The two combined to miss 173 games, and only hit a combined 7 HR, a far cry from their former dominant selves.  Minnesota said goodbye to longtime Twins Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan in the offseason, meaning good health, and healthy production, by Mauer and Morneau are essential for a Minny turnaround.

Interesting Stat

It’s important to take defensive metrics with a grain of salt – there really isn’t a perfect way to measure how good a player is in the field.  But…the Tigers could be in trouble.  Baseball Reference calculates a statistic called Rtot (Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average) which demonstrates the number of runs  a player was worth defensively.  Average is zero.  A negative number means the player actually cost his team runs with the way he played defensively.  According to Rtot, in 2011 Prince Fielder was the 3rd worst defensive 1B in all of baseball (with at least 200 innings played at the position) at -7.  Only two players were worse: Eric Hosmer of KC (-10), and Miguel Cabrera, his new teammate (-8).  Cabrera will shift to 3B in 2012, a much more difficult position, which intuitively will lead to a much worse Rtot.  What’s worse, is that incumbent 2B Ryan Raburn was the 7th worst fielding second baseman in all of baseball at -5.  Only SS Jhonny Peralta can claim to be good defensively.  Things could get ugly in Detroit’s infield…

Who Should Win

Detroit. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column

For such a small division, a lot of things happened to the AL West over the winter.  The Angels went crazy and spent a ridiculous amount of money.  The Rangers brought in a Japanese phenom.  The A’s got rid of most of their useful players, then shocked the baseball world by breaking the bank for a Cuban could-be star.  And the Mariners traded one of baseball’s hottest commodities (a young power pitcher) for the kind of slugger they have sorely lacked for the last several years.  Crazy stuff.

We continue our divisional previews with a look at the AL West.

Defending Champion

Texas Rangers

Past Five Champions

2011 – Texas

2010 – Texas

2009 – LA Angels

2008 – LA Angels

2007 – LA Angels

Average Wins of Past Five Champions: 95.4

Best Player

Albert Pujols, Angels

He hasn’t even played a single inning in the division, yet he’s already its best player.  That’s what happens when your career average season is .328 / .420 / .617 / 1.037, 40 HR, 121 RBI, and you have finished in the top-10 in MVP voting EVERY season of your career.  Yeah, Pujols is pretty good, and the Angels shocked everybody by signing him in the winter.  Though they paid an outrageous amount of money to get him, and his contract might be a burden a few years down the road, for now he is still the same player, set to bring a World Series title to the Angels.  

Honourable Mention: Ian Kinsler, Rangers; Adrian Beltre, Rangers

Best Pitcher

Felix Hernandez, Mariners

They don’t call him “King” for nothing.  In his past three seasons, Hernandez has put up an ERA of 2.73, a WHIP of 1.14, 671 strikeouts, a K/9 ratio of 8.4 and a K/BB ratio of 3.23.  He’s also won a Cy Young award.  But even more impressive is the fact that he has managed to win games.  He has gone 46-31 over those seasons, and incredibly he went 27-26 over the past two years, despite playing for a Seattle team that put up the least amount runs scored in baseball.  Despite having a plethora of impressive arms in the division, nobody can touch Felix.

Honourable Mention: Jered Weaver, Angels; Dan Haren, Angels

Three Storylines For 2012

1. Big Spending Angels

LA was never really close to making the playoffs last year, finishing 10 games back of division rivals Texas.  That didn’t sit well with owner Arte Moreno.  Beginning in late August of 2011, he opened up his wallet to try and change that.  Big time.  First, the Angels locked up ace Jered Weaver with a 5-year $85-million contract.  Then they really broke the bank, signing Pujols to a 10-year $240-million deal, and starter C.J. Wilson to a 5-year $77.5-million deal.  With the Angels already paying big money to Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter, winning is mandatory in order to net a decent return on those investments.  

2. Darvish Arrives

After putting up video game-type numbers in his years in Japan, pitching sensation Yu Darvish will make his much anticipated crossover to the majors in 2012 with the Texas Rangers.  Texas paid an enormous sum for Darvish ($111.7-milion including posting fee), and the signing comes with an incredible amount of risk.  Though he has thrown the ball well thus far in the spring, how will he handle the long grind of a major league baseball season, with lots of travel, and increased pressure, all well playing in the brutal Texas summer heat?  The division title mighit depend on it.

3. Yoenis Cespedes

When Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes declared his desire to play in the major leagues by releasing a crazy video of his skills, he was linked to almost every team in baseball.  No link seemed stronger than with the Marlins, which made sense considering Miami’s Cuban culture.  But somehow, Cespedes ended up in the least likeliest of places – Oakland.  After the A’s jettisoned their closer, two of their top young pitchers, and most of their offense from 2011, it looked to be a long, long year.  But the signing of Cespedes at least adds some intrigue to the Athletics, and maybe, just maybe, having him play in one of the least pressure-packed markets in baseball might help YC live up to his enormous hype.

Interesting Stat

The Seattle Mariners offense in 2011 was incredibly bad.  They scored a total of 556 runs – the only team in the AL to not eclipse the 600 run mark.  That equates to 3.43 runs scored per game.  It doesn’t matter how good your pitching staff is – you can’t win with that level of production.  One of the main reasons why Seattle was so bad was lack of power.  The Mariners were the only team in the AL that did not produce a 20-HR hitter.  Every other team had at least one player who slugged 20 bombs.  Seattle’s top power threat was C Miguel Olivo who hit 19.  A lot of pressure will be on the shoulders of youngsters Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Mike Carp, and Jesus Montero to make sure that dubious stat doesn’t happen again.

Who Should Win

Texas. 

Will they?  Find out in my season prediction column